Mike Aviles, SS of the future, er...until we find a real one
by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Jun 15, 2008 12:34 AM EDT
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PrintI was one of the early callers for Aviles as a SS replacement for TPJ while he tortured us with his butterfly-net hacking techniques. As minor league player of the year and proven minor league hitter, Aviles seemed deserving of at least some kind of major league duty to me. When TPJ's bat hit the fan(shit is a bad word, but...well, that's what it was), Aviles seemed a better option than Berroa and other options playing out of position (Callaspo looking like Cecil Fielder w/ a glove at short and German looking like...well, German, but at short). Well, Aviles came up, to much cheer and fanfare. So much so that he went 0-3 in his major league debut and didn't see pt for another week (Buddy Bell would be proud). 27 years old and all, Aviles displayed minor league experience by (being patient and...) having 5 extra-base hits before his first major league single. He has since been used as our everyday SS. He has 2 homers and a very good batting line in this short timespan since his call-up. While he looks like me a fat guy, he has yet to embarass himself at SS as German and Callaspo have. Let's let this one play out. Let the guy hit and see where our offense goes. After all, this is the AL. Some teams have hitters at all positions here.
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We need an "El Salvatore" option
He’ll crash down to earth soon enough, but there’s nothing wrong with enjoying the ride while it lasts.
Go Avilanche!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
In Spanish, isn't it "El Salvador"?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm a white dude of Teutonic peasant stock from Edmond, Oklahoma
How the heck should I know?
It’s hard for me to know how to divide my excitement for the ephemeral emergence of Avilanche and Little Guido’s arrival in the minors, so I can barely concentrate as it is.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 15, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
If He Keeps
Hitting there is a place for him at 1B/DH. BB can be his opposite. Gload can shine their shoes.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jun 15, 2008 12:47 AM EDT reply actions
He is The Missing Link
and will lead us to ultimate glory!!!!!!!
ok, he is a good option for a few years, but I think you really need to have a great, defensive shortstop to have team success. But, until the rest of the lineup starts hitting well, he is the right person at the right time.
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
Great defensive SS's and success
Neither Nomar nor Jeter were or are great defensive SS’s. Of course, they were surrounded by a great lineup. I think a successful team needs players who have the right mix of hitting and defense. Some players can be great defenders with lighter bats. Some can be good hitters with lesser defense. I think even at the most important defensive position, there is a level of hitting which outweighs even Gold Glove defense.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
there is a level of hitting which outweighs even Gold Glove defense.
Love him or hate him, Jeter in his prime (possibly including up through last year) is a great example of this. The worst (or at least one of the worst) defensive SS in the league, I’m pretty sure it was made up for by his bat, particularly in 1999 and 2006 when, ironically, the same sportswriters who gush over his intangibles screwed him out of MVPs.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 15, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed on Jeter
He’s a very good player. My biggest problem with him isn’t really a problem with him. The problem is that broadcasters act like he’s god’s gift to baseball. They act like he’s Mickey Mantle, Joe Dimaggio and Ozzie Smith rolled into one. Rarely have I see a merely good player so tremendously overhyped. I guess I’m forgetting that he’s a “winner.” He knows how to play the game and he knows how to win.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup -- an added irony is that he gets "praised" by being lumped in with Eckstein as "winners"
which means he’s equally hated by bloggers, even though he’s between 10-100x the player.
Jeter did seem to be precocious in his development of GRIT/ERSTAD. Really an outlier case.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 15, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Eckstein
I don’t get why anyone would hate on him at all. He hasn’t been a great player, but what a great story. Who wouldn’t cheer for an undersized guy who worked really hard and was competent enough to help his team play in the WS a few times in his career?
Pretty much because...
he’s a media darling that isn’t very good.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Good story, likeable guy
But he’s about 1/10th as good as they hype and sports media love he gets.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Even so, the negativity should be directed toward certain media folk rather than toward Eck.
Saying that he's overrated and not particularly good are both comments which he deserves
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 16, 2008 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions
+1
It’s not like Eckstein has avoided embellishing his role…”The DNA of my grit” is one helluva book.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Wait, are you serious about the book thing?
I think one thing we can say about both Eckstein and Jeter is that they both have the 8th tool: they’re both “baseball players.”
Current tool count (post-2008 RR draft thread):
1. Hitting for power
2. Hitting for average
3. Fielding
4. Arm strength
5. Running speed
6. Grit
7. Ability to differentiate strikes and balls
8. Being a baseball player
9. Playing to win
10. Steve Phillips
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 16, 2008 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Hee hee
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=david+eckstein
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Hosmer
I was watching the Royals pregame show a few minutes ago. While Deric Ladnier and GMDM were being interviewed about the draft, they said that one of the main reasons they took Hosmer was because he was a “winner”. That diminished about half of my hope in Hosmer to be anything eventually.
I think that is front office PR-speak
I really don’t think they are looking for “he’s a winner” in their scouting and player evaluation. All good HS players are “winners” as their teams almost always do well. Moore was just doing his PR sales job.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope so
Ladnier was around during the Baird administration, too, and usually talked about previous draft picks in terms of tools or projectability or work ethic or makeup…until this time.
I've heard/read Ladnier talking about Hosmer's tools and projection
This is the first I’ve heard of him referring to him as a “winner”. He’s said a lot more than that about Hosmer.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 16, 2008 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Is he a winner, and does he know how to win? Is he a player, and does he play the game the right way?
These are the first (and only) questions scouts should concern themselves with in their evaluation of a player.
Grit will come with time, and learning to do the little things is something you’ll pick up in the minors. However, one thing you can’t measure or properly scout is whether or not a player will leave it all on the field. That is the x-factor, and what separates the men from the boys.
This space intentionally left blank.
It starts at the lower levels
If the guy knows that to win, you must score more runs than the opponent, then you know that player has what it takes to be a “winner” and he obviously “knows how to play the game.”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
At what point does he become one of the fabled "baseball players?"
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 16, 2008 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
In addition to "knowing how to play the game the right way"....
The amount of dirt on their uniform at any point of the game is important. More dirt = more wins.
Cf,. list above
I’m pretty sure we’re well on our way to forming the ultimate scouting/development brain trust here at RR.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 16, 2008 9:57 AM EDT up reply actions
well, ok
if you promise to surround him with the quality bats that Nomar and Jeter are surrounded by, then yes. Since I don’t see this happening, I will stick with my original thesis
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
Everyone knows I was a huge supporter of this
move but even I have been surprised by his hot start. He crushed Buckner’s pitch Saturday night and both of his homers have been no doubters. Nice to see a SS swinging the stick and making contact for a change.
Also nice quick outing for Carlos Rosa in his first major league outing. Does anyone know what his fastball was maxing out at?
Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.
According to the radar that the D-Backs broadcast was using
...his fastball was routinely hitting 94-95.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know what to think anymore
He’s never done anything like this before and I’m always skeptical when a guy has the best 3 1/2 months of his life at 27 years old, especially when he doesn’t have a corresponding jump in his walk rate and/or a big drop in his K rate.
Still, I’ve been an advocate of him as a long term utility man and as long as he can manage to keep SOME of this breakout, he’s at least an entry level starter at shortstop or second base, which makes him an interesting pair with Callaspo.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
What would be a good comp?
NYRoyal is probably a good person to ask this, but can anyone think of a 27 year old SS who suddenly came up and hit for decent power and stuck?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I really don't know off the top of my head
I think it would be a rare occurrence, but it has probably happened. It would take some research to find one.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
haha SS for power breaking in at 27...
Won’t be many, because that is taking a small sample from a small sample. Alltime SS’s have hit less home runs than any other fielding position.
When was the last time a Royals SS hit for power period…ok Berroa kinda, but just saying it is rare. Aviles, based on his start, could have the second highest season hr total for a Royal SS by the end of 08.
Until more recently there were hardly any but Ripken, and even today ARod, Tejada, Ramirez, Rollins maybe Jeter?....help me out with other leaders. I’m struggling to find career HR tallies for SS’s.
On a completely different note I did see on Baseball Almanac that GB5 currently sits in 100th place all-time for home runs as of the end of 2007…that won’t last long.
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
How about this?
Can anyone think of a 27 year old SS who suddenly came up and hit well (with power or not) and stuck? I’m sure there have been some. I just can’t think of any.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions
God bless Baseball-Reference
Rookie 26/27 year old shortstops who slugged .400
Clint Barmes .289/.330/.434 in 377 PAs at age 26. Power severely dropped off.
Melvin Mora 2000 .275/.337/.411 in 464 PAs at age 27. Career .437 slugger with two 27 HR seasons
Geoff Blum 1999 .241/.327/.504 in 153 PAs at age 26. Flukey powrer, he has been a career bench player.
Ramon Martinez 1999 .264/.327/.410 in 165 PAs at age 26. Career backup.
Alvin Dark 1948 .322/.353/.433 in 579 PAs at age 26. Three-time All-Star with 2000 career hits.
Joe Boley 1927 .311/.361/.411 in 415 PAs at age 30. Very little ISO power in his career.
Jim O’Neill 1920 .289/.324/.405 in 320 PAs at age 27. He had just 23 games after that season.
John Valentin nearly made the cut, reaching the big leagues at age 25 and hitting .276/.351/.427
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 15, 2008 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
FTR
Hardly anyone on this list stuck at SS for long…Barmes washed out, Mora switched to the outfield and struggled with the bat until late in his career, Blum is a futility man as was Martinez, Boley and O’Neill were hardly around, Valetin destroyed his knee and moved to third, Dark was pretty good.
Wow. That’s a pretty high casualty rate.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
If Aviles became Melvin Mora
I think we’d all be pretty tickled.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
You mean,
if he struggled for six years and we gave away to the Orioles and then he hit like an MVP for them for two years? Yeah, that’d be awesome.
Mora has had one fricking weird career path.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
I should have amended
that to “Melvin Mora seems to have led an interesting life.”
It’d be cool if Mike Aviles went all Travis Henry and had 87 kids with 87 different women. It might get us on SportsCenter before the PBA tour.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
I don’t know what people here think of Shandler’s outfit in general (I personally like it as a fantasy tool), but I remember looking at a friend’s copy of the the Baseball Forecaster (or whatever it’s called) a couple of years back, and under Mora’s entry, it said something like “it’s interesting that his career years coincided with the arrival of Miguel Tejada and his B-12 syringe.” This was before the Mitchell Report came out, and, whether or not it’s true, I thought that was pretty funny for some reason.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 16, 2008 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
found the list of SS career HR
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/unDz
I obviously missed a lot of players, but just 80 career HRs would have you in the top 50, wow.
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
Greg Gagne 27th
Amazing
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 15, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/shareit/9TvM
he will make this list for sure….hopefully
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
I think the poll should have had an option for
stays a starter, but at a different position.
Love the bat, and I think we can live with his avg range at short – but I think the arm may be more suited for second base. Also wondering, if he really keeps hitting around an 800 OPS, if he would be able to transition to left field? Reason I bring this up – we have a real logjam at 2B.
I have a feeling that the logjam at 2B won't last into next year
I think neither Grudz nor German will be Royals next year. Maybe Callaspo should go to SS and Aviles to 2B.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 16, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
SS high death toll
Seems like a lot don’t pan out and give way for another person to not pan out. Such a demanding position. Even if he doesn’t turn out to be great, he is by far our best option right now and helping us win…besides we haven’t thrown a huge investment his way in the form of a long term deal. So whatever positives he’s doing is great.
I love his swing. He punishes inside fastballs like Guillen does. They both lock the arms in kinda funky but turn on the ball really quickly. I am a Mikey Aviles fan.
But since NYRoyal admitted he is pleasantly surprised with Aviles, I must also say that about DDJ. He is tearing it up, and maybe not as trade-able as I originally thought. Marky Mark on the other hand…we could send him to a team needing a RF, 3rd, or 1st baseman.
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
One other thing
In addition to turning on inside fastballs, he’s also shown a willingness to take balls the other way. It seems like he’s been hitting the ball all over the park.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 16, 2008 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
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