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Around SBN: Are The Orioles Bad Or Unlucky With Their Young Pitching?

Very impressed with Mike Aviles

Believe me, I know that no one was anxiously awaiting my thoughts on Mike Aviles.  But I was one of the most vocal "we can't expect much from him," "he's not a particularly good prospect," and "he's not a long-term solution at SS" guys.  I just wanted to say that I'm extremely impressed with Aviles so far.

Maviles1_medium

via www.minorleaguewatch.com

These are the grades I'd give him so far.  

Range C-

Arm C

Speed B

Bat speed A-

Pitch selection A

Contact hitting A+

Plate discipine B

Power hitting A+

Overall grade through 10 games and 36 AB's  - A-

I would describe the defensive skills and performance he's shown so far to be below average.  Not horrible, or even bad, but below average for a MLB SS.  There have been some mistakes and some balls he didn't get to or wasn't able to make a throw.  But there have also been some good plays as well.  His defensive skills remind me of the reports I've heard of Moustakas at SS:  good footwork, handles the ball well, but just doesn't have good SS range.  But, overall, his defense has been good enough.  Even at SS, if you can hit, you don't need to be great or even average defensively.  I think Hillman was correct when he said after Friday's game, "Overall, I think [Aviles has] done a pretty good job," Hillman said. "His lateral range has been acceptable. He's done well."  Acceptable defense and a plus bat.  I'll take it.

537728_medium

via media.scout.com

Aviles's stats pretty much speak for themselves:

BA .361

OBP .395

SLG .722

BB 2

SO 5

AB 36

2B 5

3B 1

HR 2

For the most part, he's taking balls and swinging at strikes.  He's making a lot of contact and it is good, hard contact.  So far, there isn't much to dislike about his hitting.

Of course, the sample size is small.  Even the biggest Aviles fans aren't predicting All-Star appearances in his future.  And we should all remember the hot starts of Phil HIatt and Mike Kingery which quickly burnt themselves out.  Unfortunately not all that glitters is gold.  But I am nonetheless impressed.  As long as he's hot, keep him at short, hopefully allowing Callaspo to spell him there and get some more starts backing up Grudz.

There is an interesting issue here.  Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Aviles is a below average defensive SS (not good and not even average, but also not horrible).  How well would such a SS have to hit for you to be comfortable with him being the everyday SS in 2009?  I'm not talking about an audition or an extended look (which is what he's getting in 2008).  I'm talking about the regular, everyday SS job for the 2009 season.  How well would he have to hit to make that defense acceptable?

Poll
How well would a below average defensive shortstop have to hit for him to be an acceptable, full-time starting shortstop for the Royals in 2009?
.800 OPS
10 votes
.790
3 votes
.780
7 votes
.770
10 votes
.760
12 votes
.750
19 votes
.740
9 votes
.730
4 votes
.720
2 votes
.710
0 votes
.700
4 votes

80 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 53 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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The most exciting thing

about Aviles to me is that he had proven he could hit in the minors, and he’s operating in the majors in the same OPS range that he had in AAA. If he continues this, he will be a very very productive hitter in the bigs. But as we have seen time and time again with our good call-ups, what makes the difference is how the hitter adjusts once the league figures him out. Aviles should start experiencing this in the coming weeks.

Never giving up on your team is what makes you a good fan.

by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Jun 15, 2008 10:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Love what we're seeing so far

Watching him for a number of games now, it’s obvious Aviles can really hit. As long as he maintains a decent level of defense (approaching average), I’m excited about having him in the lineup every day. He is really hitting some ropes.

by cookierojas73 on Jun 15, 2008 11:43 AM EDT reply actions  

I was calling for Aviles, but I didn't think

he would be doing this well. I expect him to cool off a little of course, but this is a huge improvement over Pena. He could just be the classic late bloomer. I’m good with giving him the rest of the year at short to see if he can keep up his nice numbers.

"We should've gotten a live chicken"
- Willie Mays Hays

by royaldaddy on Jun 15, 2008 11:56 AM EDT reply actions  

Acceptable defense and a plus bat. I'll take it.

amen, brother.

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jun 15, 2008 12:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Obviously, he's going to cool off.

Although I hope to god we’re all wrong.

Couple of things:

1) I’m not really sure his range is an issue, at least not to his left. His error last night was a throwing error that occurred after he picked a ball while running behind second base—he was already on the 1B side of the bag when he made the ill-advised spin-and-throw. Now, fair witness time; I didn’t see where he was set up to start the play, so he may have been playing close to the bag and I’m talking out my posterior. Still, it looked as though he’d gotten on his horse pretty well.

2) You know, I know, we all know exactly how many truckloads of salt to take RCAA with. But it’s pretty damned shocking, nevertheless, that as of this morning Mike Aviles is the Royals’ co-leader (with Guillen) in RCAA. (The other surprising RCAA note for the day: TPJ is no longer the worst hitter in the AL; that honor now belongs to Robinson Cano.)

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jun 15, 2008 12:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Range and cooling off

With regard to his range and that play. A SS with good range would have been able to get to that ball sooner, allowing him to set up better and make a better throw. Aviles, on the other hand, was able to just get to it and then get off an ill-advised throw. So I think the problems with that player were first, range and second, judgment. But again, it’s not really bad range; it’s just below average range (IMO).

And while we all know he’ll cool off, we don’t know how much he’ll cool off. It would take a lot of cooling off to get him down to a .800 OPS (although given that he’s only got 36 AB’s, a lot of cooling off can happen in the next 20 AB’s). And if he only cooled off that much, he’d still be a very good SS overall. Of course, if he cooled off to a .700 OPS, it would be a very different story.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Here's the thing that just boggles my mind.

You realize TPJ, with his 162 AB, only has five more total bases thus far than Aviles?

I mean, think about that. Aviles could go 2-4 with a homer today, and then he’d have to go 0-for-126 for their SLGs to equalize.

Just WOW. (And, of course, that’s just a reflection on how BAD TPJ is.)

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jun 15, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

not me

he is on my two fantasy teams and is undroppable in both….sigh…

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jun 15, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, a couple more things

3) “For the most part, he’s taking balls and swinging at strikes.” YES. I especially noticed this on his sole single of the evening; he patiently took three balls, then took an unhittable strike… then got his pitch and calmly rifled it into left field for a base hit. If that’s going to be his approach, then I’m not worried about his walk total; he’ll draw his walks, and he’ll hit his pitches.

(This is one of those things where statistics sometimes doesn’t tell the whole story, especially with small sample sizes. If Aviles continues to tear it up, he’s going to start walking more, because he’s not going to get meaty challenge pitches early in the count. I hope nobody even begins to fret about his walk total until/unless he stops actually hitting.)

And that leads into…

4) I don’t see him going Hiatt; Hiatt had no plate discipline. I don’t see him going Kingery either; Kingery didn’t really have power, and that’s what eventually ate him. Not to say he won’t turn into a pumpkin, but I don’t think it’ll happen in the same manner as those guys. ‘course, he could Chris Shelton…

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jun 15, 2008 12:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed on the walks

While I value walks, I think some people just look at that stat and think that if a guy isn’t taking walks, then he’s an overly aggressive hacker. For me, good hitting means taking pitches you can’t hit and swinging at pitches you can hit. So, if pitchers are throwing you strikes, you shouldn’t be trying to draw a walk. If they throw you strikes, then you’d better hit them. So far, he is.

If Chris Shelton were a SS with only below average SS defense, he’d still be in Detroit as their everyday SS and he would have played over 150 games a season every year there. I guess my only point is that if he regresses like Shelton did, he’d still be a good SS overall.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aviles is putting up a

.379 BABIP, and it’s for me to believe that he can sustain a number that high. Am I impressed with how well he’s done so far? Yes, good for him, good for us. Do I think there’s a great deal of regression coming before we actually know what we can expect from him going forward? Yes.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 15, 2008 1:28 PM EDT reply actions  

And his LD...24%

Not that far off.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jun 15, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

Glad to see this post

I was going to come and write a fanpost about Aviles. I was going to talk about how I’m really loving to watch this guy play and will enjoy it while it lasts. Might as well not worry about whether or not he is likely to regress, but just don’t be surprised if it happens. But baseball is a crazy game, there have been much rarer stories than a 27 year old succeeding after being in the minors for years. Maybe he can become an above average player for us? Who knows at this point.

In the meantime, Aviles is quickly becoming a fan favorite in Royals Nation (yes, I said Royals Nation). He is a guy a fan can reallly root for. Most of us root for every player, but a guy like Aviles who has worked his ass off to get up to the major leagues at a later age, is really the type of player who fans love to root for.

Let’s hope he keeps playing at a high level and like many have said….at least we don’t have to deal with TPJ anymore.

by I need more Esteban on Jun 15, 2008 2:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm excited about Aviles thus far...

He OPS’d over 1.000 in AAA and is continuing it in the majors. A SS that could hit would me a major positive development for this team.

by djk royal on Jun 15, 2008 2:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Excellent write-up, NYRoyal

I’m still not a fan of Aviles’ defense, especially after his second error in last night’s game, but I’ve been thrilled (and a little surprised) with his offensive output so far. He still needs a defensive replacement behind him on the bench, but I’m happy to keep him with the big-league club, even with German and Callaspo also here.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 15, 2008 3:13 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm just soaking all this in...

I (as one of his biggest supporters) didn’t even think he’d hit this well. I was disappointed in his error yesterday and he will have to work on those quick hands that MLBSS’s have to have to get a solid shot next year.
In a couple weeks to a month from now I do expect a sudden fall to reality for Mr. Aviles with him possibly going around 230 for a month or so. But I also expect him to adjust as well, like he did from AA to AAA. But with the SS’s that will be available in the FA market this coming offseason he really will need to hone up the D over the winter and into camp next year.
Everyone loves Callaspo (as do I to a point) but if Aviles’ throws are a problem (as they always have been for Mike, will catch what he gets to but not sure where its going after that) he might get moved to 2nd to keep his bat around and the Royals might go for a Cabrera or Guzman type in FA. Or with GMDM, I could see him trying to sign Furcal….

And to all those I battled with in May and early June about Aviles, told you the kid could swing a stick and his defense would be passable…

by Royal2103 on Jun 15, 2008 3:16 PM EDT reply actions  

There's not much incentive

to go after Cabrera or Guzman in FA, the way I see it. Neither one would be all that much help for the price they’ll command.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 15, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

They would be an absolute waste of money

They will require largish long-term contracts and neither is worth it. O-Cab is getting worse with every passing day. He’ll be done very soon.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

as for Guzman

wasn’t he done 5 years ago?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Jun 15, 2008 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oddly, he was fairly good last year in a part-time role and he's been pretty good this year in a full-time role

But these still have to be seen as an aberration. Before 2007 in seven seasons, he only had one good year. Even with his defense, his bat hasn’t been close to being good enough. I have this fear that Moore will want a good defensive SS and he’ll overspend on someone like Guzman or Cabrera. Please god no.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

They're just like TPJ, but more expensive!

And older! (Cabrera’s ERSTAD must be off the charts)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Jun 15, 2008 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Guzman

Was worse than Angel not so long ago.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 15, 2008 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

I really like Orlando Cabrera, but the Royals shouldn’t sign him.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 16, 2008 2:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Aviles

I’m glad you’ve come around on Aviles.

Somewhere I’d read that he had been leading the PCL in XBH at the time of his callup. Although both samples are small, his work so far this year at two levels has been consistently outstanding. I expect some sort of regression, but not to anything as bad as TPJ.

We still can’t expect much from Aviles, and the Royals don’t really know what they have yet, but at least the organization is finding out what they have. At worst (a Kingery-like flameout), Aviles may also end up in a trade for a much better player. I’m optimistic that he’ll be the MI UT player next season if he is not traded, and I suppose there is a small chance that he starts 2009 as the everyday SS. I’m fine with that since that could only happen if he earns it.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 15, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions  

I am thrilled with his performance thus far

But I am concerned with his troubles with breaking balls. As a “book” develops on him, look for that to be his Achilles heel. Still, he could adjust, and some hitters have done okay abusing fastballs. If he can post a .760 OPS I can live with his sub-par defense.

And kudos to NYRoyal to be open-minded on the kid. I’ll admit too, I was pretty down on the guy, but at a certain point, I think you have to admit that you have to try anything when your shortstop has an OPS+ of -1.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 15, 2008 6:11 PM EDT reply actions  

You are right about developing the book on Aviles.

But that is a problem for any rookie. Second time through the league will be different than this one. The thing I like is that Aviles is showing he has the ability. Without a solution for an everyday SS in the system or on the trade horizon, Aviles can do well. He brings energy to the game and maybe a NYC toughness that the Royals have been missing. BTW, Mexican toughness and NYC toughness are comparable – this is another topic for another thread.

by daveyork on Jun 15, 2008 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

He's much bigger than I thought

Even if he becomes a fastball-only hitter, he has the power to really make those mistake pitches pay.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 15, 2008 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Friggin enter key

Somehow that equated into “post this!” Not sure how that happened

I was going to say-I’ve gotten to watch Aviles punish a couple of curveballs, so I think there is hope for him. He’s also shown surprising plate discipline in some at-bats-more than I’d honestly expect from someone out of our organization.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 15, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

He chased more than a few sliders today

Sliders low and away did him in. But I haven’t seen enough of him to know if that’s a particular weakness for him.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

Granted, I only saw one of his at bats today

In the Yankees series, it seemed like he was handling the breaking stuff better. I remember him handling Mussina’s knuckle curve pretty well.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 16, 2008 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

The slider down and away is a soft spot for a lot of hitters

Maybe Aviles. Hard to say at this point. I think more pitchers will be trying that.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 16, 2008 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

A Well Placed

Slider low and away will kill most MLB hitters. Those were good sliders that Aviles missed today. He seems to be able to lay off the really bad ones, and I wouldn’t want to hang one to him right now.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jun 16, 2008 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

My only question is

When do you lock him up to a long-term deal – this week or next week?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 15, 2008 6:12 PM EDT reply actions  

They're still working on Olivo's

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Jun 15, 2008 6:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Last week

Moore is behind already. Time to catch up.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Guys, I gotta do something

Bo Hart

Sorry, I had to knock ya’ll back down from that cloud ya’ll came floatin’ in here on!!!!!!

I’m ecstatic that he is off to as hot of start as he is, but seriously, how many career minor leaguers pan out to long term guys?

Lew Ford? Mark Ellis?

I know there is the occasional exception where scouts look back and say, “whoops” but they are few and far between (and rarely come from a low budget organization like KC)...

As was pointed out on an earlier post, he is a guy that is easy to root for. Ala DDj, he plays the game w/ a smile on his face, but if the R’s have been projecting him as a utility player, then that is what my expectations remain as (for now). A few dozen AB’s does not a Franchise SS make.

Sorry

by GoBabies!! on Jun 15, 2008 8:12 PM EDT reply actions  

And yea...

I know that 27 isn’t exactly “career minor leaguer” I may have stretched that a bit, but I think you get my point…

by GoBabies!! on Jun 15, 2008 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

To be fair to us...

...I think we have mentioned multiple times that we know he’s not this good and we have brought up Bo Hart, Mike Kingery and Phil Hiatt. We know the odds are long against this guy.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 15, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not As Long

As TPJ’s.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jun 16, 2008 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

(Blank) (Blank) she (Blank)ed

Talk about a hanging slider…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Jun 16, 2008 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

It Might Help

Him find a new career.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jun 16, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Jun 18, 2008 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

My question

is what if the Royals view him as a second baseman, rather than a shortstop, long-term? It’s a valid question. I think Aviles may profile out to be a better defensive 2B than SS. If the Royals agree, how will they deal with the 2B logjam?

What is the long-term plan, once Grudzielanek is retired or traded? Is Callaspo the 2B? Is Aviles? What about German?

by loyal2sdad on Jun 16, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions  

I doubt they've changed their mind that Callaspo is the 2B of the future (as in, post-Grudz)

...but I suppose things could change.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 16, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

Teahen at 2B?

Nobody will celebrate harder when the Royals make the playoffs!!

by juano on Jun 16, 2008 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think so

He had very limited range at 3B. I think he’d be a disaster at 2B.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 16, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aviles wouldn't have much room to decline to displace Callaspo.

Alberto has too good of a OBP profile to sit on the bench behind Aviles. Aviles would have to be around a .750-.800 OPS guy to keep Alberto on the bench behind him.

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jun 16, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

If We Could

Trade Gritz, Germie and Callie for an acceptable MLB SS, I’d do it.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jun 16, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

A more likely scenario than Aviles or Teahen at second base

Would be shifting Alex Gordon to first base. Based on what I’ve read of Aviles, his defense at SS is mediocre (we all know that), but he can play adequate, if unremarkable, defense at third.

I know suggesting this means we would be shifting one of the cornerstones of our franchise for some 27-year-old quasi-prospect, but if we wanted to keep Gordon’s, Aviles’s, and Callaspo’s bats in the lineup simultaneously w/out Aviles having to play short, that would be the way to do it

by DarthYoshi on Jun 16, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Aviles = Juan Uribe - Defense

That would be pre-collapse Uribe, but probably swapping out some of Uribe’s Ks and extra base hits for a few extra percentage points of batting average. He could be useful in an Esteban German role.

by Gopherballs on Jun 16, 2008 12:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Esteban German role

So….picking splinters out of his ass

Guess I'll have to change my name now...damn

by MileHighKCfan on Jun 18, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

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