I just can't quit you...

by BlownSave on Jun 16, 2008 12:47 AM EDT Comment 28 comments

At what point to do we quit on Chris Lubanski? Chris is hitting .258/.335/.473, which isn’t bad, but not good either. Lubanski is only 23 and can still become a productive player on some level. Then again, we didn’t even protect him in the Rule 5 Draft (and then no one took him either). Clearly, at this point, Lubanski is no longer a major (or minor) piece in the puzzle, but he is a former fifth overall pick. So what should our expectations be of Lubanski moving forward?

(I have no idea, which is why I'm asking the question.)

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At this point

I think Lubanski is hovering somewhere between being AAAA level and being organizational filler, but he will probably remain in Omaha for some time if we keep him, owing to our general lack of true OF prospects in our system.

Best case scenario: He becomes our fourth outfielder if we trade away DDJ or Teahen and Costa once again proves he’s not up to MLB pitching.

Worst case scenario: We end up exposing him in the Rule 5 draft again and some team happens to take him from us. But I doubt he could stay on an MLB roster all season.

Either way, fairly inconsequential—which, given that we used a fifth overall pick on him, would definitely constitute a disappointment, but there have been way bigger first-round busts than Lubanski.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 16, 2008 1:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So far he still think he projects to either a 4th/5th OFer or perhaps a platoon partner

Hopefully his hitting in Omaha continues to improve and he makes it look like he could possibly be a major league hitter. While he has a lot of minor league experience, he is only 23. That’s still pretty young. And he is hitting RHP to the tune of .302/.367/.577. He might be able to become either a platoon player or a part-time player who faces a disproportionate number of RHP.

The real issue is this: do the Royals protect him from the Rule 5 draft this offseason? At this point, I still don’t know if anyone would take him and I wouldn’t feel too bad if we lost him (depending on what he does for the remainder of the season). But it’s all about a numbers game. Will there be 40 players eligible for the Rule 5 draft who are better players/prospects than Lubanski? Hard to say at this point. (DFAing Pena and Gload at least by December would help here).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 16, 2008 1:44 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who would the Royals platoon Lubanski with, though?

Three of our four current OFers bat left-handed, and all three to varying degrees hit right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching (DDJ and Teahen more so than Gator, but Gator is the worst hitter of the three anyways). Unless we traded away two of those three, there really isn’t room on our roster for a platoon guy against right-handed pitching. I’m all for trading at least one of them, but I wouldn’t trade away another unless we managed to sign a FA COFer like Burrell this offseason.

I agree—the splits are encouraging, but if anything, the Royals OFers need platoon partners who can hit left-handed pitching, so I really don’t see any room for Lubanski on the 25-man roster in the forseeable future.

Unless Lubanski really starts hitting the hide off the ball, I doubt the Royals will protect him in the Rule 5 Draft this winter. If they weren’t going to last year, it would take a pretty substantial progression on his part to compel them to do so this year.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 16, 2008 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not talking about an immediate platoon situation

I’m talking about a useful player at some point in the not too distant future. It’s never difficult to find a RH OFer who hits lefties well. I’m not including Lubanski in the Royals plans for 2009, except as a potential call up from Omaha if someone goes on the DL. But, at some point in the near or more distant future, Teahen could be traded and Royals could, potentially use a platoon for LF.

The 25-man roster in the forseeable future could, potentially change greatly. Teahen’s future with this team is uncertain. DeJesus could potentially be traded. Gathright could potentially be traded.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 16, 2008 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then I guess where we differ

is at what point does Lubanski become useful for the big league club. Even though nobody would mistake me for a big Costa fan, I do think Costa has done more to earn another shot with the big-league club than has Lubanski. If Lubanski can show he can switch back to CF and be fine there, I might be a little more keen on him (certainly more so than I am on Maier).

As is, though, I feel like Lubanski is just a lower quality version of Mark Teahen—a COFer who could potentially play MLB-caliber CF defense, gets absolutely schooled by left-handed pitching, doesn’t possess a ton of power (8 hrs in almost 200 ABs in the hitter-friendly PCL is nothing to write home about), and is decent at getting on base. I hope I’m wrong and that Lubanski can become a productive 4th OFer for us someday, but I am by no means holding my breath with anticipation.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 16, 2008 2:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Lubanski vs. Costa

My general preference for Lubanski over Costa (at some point in the future) comes down to two things:

1. Costa has already shown that he isn’t a major league hitter in over 400 AB’s
and
2. Costa is 26, while Lubanski is 23. I like Lubanski’s likelihood to improve over the next few years much more than Costa.

Now, if we needed an OFer to call up this year, I’d definitely go with Costa. Maybe next year too. Of course, Costa will be out of options next season and possibly not with the club at all. I’m not very hopeful about Lubanski. I actually think that his ceiling is 4th OFer or platoon partner. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he never did anything worthwhile in the majors.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 16, 2008 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I'm not sure

We need to “give up on Lubanski” until our hand is forced. That would be, as NYRoyal suggests, at the Rule 5 Draft, and even then, the likelihood of him being selected might not be that great. I’d rather protect Lubanski than say, Mitch Maier or Shane Costa. But I have no idea what the 40 man roster will like by this December. We may have more useful players to protect by then. Or we may not.

He is still fairly young and his hitting ain’t terrible. I don’t think he has the high upside a #7 overall pick should have, but I don’t think his is ready to be put in the “worthless” pile quite yet.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 16, 2008 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I agree with your assessment overall. The Royals shouldn’t prioritize making a spot for Lubanski, but he shouldn’t drop completely off the radar just yet.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 16, 2008 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+2

Realistically, they probably don’t have to make a final decision on Lubanski for another season or two. He’ll probably get added to the 40 man this offseason and play next year or two in Omaha in the “first OF to get called up due to injury or ineffectiveness” role.

Worst case scenario is probably the Huber path – he gets 30 ML ABs next September then the Padres give the Royals 50K for him in the offseason.

by Top Ramen on Jun 16, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

These next 50 games will say alot.

Lube hasn’t played a full season worth of games at AAA just yet. These next 50 games might tell a big story of rather to protect him or not. His current line isn’t good .258 .335 .473 but considering his past hot hitting in the second halves of seasons he sets in a nice spot. If he can match what he has done in the past he could approach a .900 OPS by year end. He doesn’t have ideal power for a corner OF’r but neither does anyone KC currently has in the org. When you look at the 3 options in the OF in Omaha I would probably choose to keep Lub over Costa and Maier.

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jun 16, 2008 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs