Hope is spelled A-V-I-L-E-S
by Dubya on Jun 17, 2008 11:39 PM EDT
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PrintI know what you are thinking - not another post by Dubya on Mike Aviles. But wait - there is good reason tonight.
Tonight, Mike Aviles stuck the dagger in our hated rivals' hearts in the top of the 8th inning. Mike Aviles, who has never projected as a Major League shortstop. Mike Aviles who according to some (ahem- NY Royal) - "he’s not a below average SS; he’s an awful SS. No one would play him at SS in the majors. No one."
Yes - that Mike Aviles.
But wait - he's also the perfect symbol for the Royals. The little guy who couldn't. The team that doesn't stand a chance. It's just a great story. He may fall flat on his butt in a few weeks, but man, what a ride this is now. Mike Aviles provides the Royals with something that no Tony Pena AB ever did - hope. And no matter how spectacular Pena is in the field (and he is), TPJ never provided us the slightest inkling that he might win a game for us with his talent.
In 45 ABs, Mike Avi"les is more" has gone .333/.362/.689. In 162 ABs, TPJ went .154/.171/.191. In 1/4 the at bats, Aviles has the same number of total bases as TPJ this year, 3 more HRs, one more 2B, and one less hit. His OPS is 1.051. He is on pace to commit two more errors than Pena over the same time period, and I'm sure he's missed some that Tony could have reached with the range, but man....HOPE.
I'm feeling for the first time in a while like we almost have our ideal team on the field. I think one more piece (Butler back at first) could seal the deal for our best chance at winning. Let's keep it rolling.
Dubya
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I think you need to moderate your expectations
Have you seen the list of SS’s who came to the majors at age 26/27 and how they have fared? I want him to be great or even good as much as anyone. But it’s not reasonable for us to expect that.
One troubling sign I’ve seen is that RHP’s are starting to pitch him low and away, and it’s working pretty consistently now. I hope he can adjust, because MLB pitchers are starting to adjust to him.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 17, 2008 11:46 PM EDT reply actions
As a "rest of the year" option
I think Aviles should be given every opportunity. I hope they don’t fall too in love with him though and fail to look for other shortstop options this July or winter. Aviles is still a long-shot to be a solid shortstop for years to come.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If aviles bats .300 with 15 homers and 40-60 RBI's for the rest of the year he damn well better be the starting SS next year
Yasuhiko Yabuta is to Major League Baseball as Drew Carey is to The Price is Right
Aviles may be my anti-Buck
I’ve now seen 2 of his 3 career home runs in person! (I was at the game Thursday against Texas.)
Not sure what the tradeoff is
But I imagine he could level off to .260-.270 and still produce more than his fielding costs us (vs. Pena). Anyone have a good way to estimate trade off in range vs. plate potential? I’d love to have some way to estimate.
Also – definitely not saying he’s the long-term solution. Just saying its nice to have someone that excites you when he steps to the plate (ala guillen right now)
I don't know if it was really necessary to call me out in your post...
...particularly after my positive Aviles fanpost. But, it’s a mostly free country.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 17, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Wasn't sure if...
It was necessary for you to tell me that my original opinion of Aviles was total crap either…
But to your point, we are free to speak our minds until the socialist all come to power.
Shouldn't we all freely share our opinions on players?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep...
Which is why your vehement rejection of mine was so bizarre. Tone is probably key.
“I don’t agree that Mike Aviles is a ML quality shortstop” is different than “no one will ever start him at SS – no one” (infer: you are a complete moron for suggesting that)
personally, I love the diversity of opinions on this board
by Dubya on Jun 18, 2008 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
You inferred incorrctly
I didn’t and don’t think you’re a moron for thinking more of Aviles than I did and do. But if I strongly disagree with you or anyone, I’m going to state that very clearly. One key thing to remember is that I can disagree with your argument and even think that your argument is insufficiently supported or illogical without thinking that you’re an idiot. When I or anyone assails your argument/contention/opinion/etc., don’t take it as an attack on you.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Socialists?
Is your screen name an homage to our beloved president?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Unfair
He said “socalist.”
until the socialist all come to power.Deep.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 18, 2008 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Our beloved president
You made a funny!
That probably already unveils too much about my politics. Oh well.
I'm thinking his SLG went up and his OBP went down
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions
so if his range sucks but
he doesn’t regress too much at the plate….where else can he play? Anywhere? It doesn’t mean much but I saw the game from the bleachers at InBev stadium tonight and Aviles really doesn’t resemble a MLB shortstop.
I think he would be a competent 2B or 3B
I’m sure he could play 1B too, but I’d be absolutely shocked if he hit well enough to be a MLB 1B.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
unfortunately about the last thing we need is more depth at 2B
or anyone else at 3B…can we get some national hype on a hot bat and move him for prospect(s)?
by stuckinstl12 on Jun 18, 2008 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Lots of possibilties
I think neither Grudz nor German will be Royals on opening day 2009 (due to trades and/or not re-signing). One of Callaspo or Aviles could/will be the 2B (or perhaps sharing time there?) with the other as utility IFer. And Moore could trade some of our pitching depth (at either the major or minor league level) for a MLB-ready young SS (like Hu, for example).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Probably not
However…
Ring, ring, ri—
“Ned Colletti’s office, how can I help you?”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 18, 2008 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
He likes older vets and he could use some IF help
He can have Grudz and German for Hu and Kemp or Loney. Done.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Indeed. It was an exaggeration/joke
Grudz and German for Hu and a prospect is, however, somewhat realistic.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Callaspo could still play SS
Although an Aviles/Callaspo DP combo is probably going to cost you a few runs.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Yeah, I think they'd both be below average defensively at those positions
But if they can hit well enough, I’d take it. That’s a big if. But I don’t think there are any FA SS options which would be a good idea. That leaves us with trades. How much are we willing to give up for Hu, Lillibridge, etc.?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I haven't seen too many games where we've lost due to our defense
We usually lose because our pitchers give up walks and homeruns, or because we can’t score.
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Aviles doesn't have to be awesome to play the rest of the year imo
Just not horrible.
.280/.320/.400-450 – Yes please, where do I sign up?
winning records follow good bullpens
It will be interesting to see how he performs after the ASB
By that point, every team will have a pretty good scouting report on him and pitchers will be pitching to his weaknesses. That will be a better test of his abilities and will show us more of what we can expect for 2009 and beyond.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Right now
Mike Aviles can do no wrong. Watching the 1-1 tie at my best friend, the Cardinals fan’s house, with a bunch of other fellow Royals fans, I was just saying to another Royals fan that Aviles has a short leash, if he goes a few games with 0 fers then we might start to worry. Then on the next pitch he cranked one into left field and we rejoiced. With Mahay and Soria, I knew we had it wrapped. Now to me, Aviles has a lot of room to work with, even with a slump, we can still be excited for a little while. I guess this kind of thing is hard to predict but I’m just really excited.
Btw, I don’t know how it came about, but I’ve started referring to Aviles as, “Money Mike”. I don’t know where it came from but it just came out of my mouth and he delivered. It might be a little cliche, but it produces GW HR’s so I’m sticking with it. Let’s sweep the Cardinals!
by I need more Esteban on Jun 18, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply actions
It will be interesting to see how Aviles adjusts to RHP's from here on out
...because it is clear that they are adjusting to him.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions
You know, it's funny
When a rookie comes up and tears the cover off the ball, we talk about the league’s pitchers catching up to him, which implies that pitchers are at a disadvantage in unfamiliar matchups.
And when a rookie pitcher comes up and gets knocked around then settles down and performs, we talk about how he learned the hitters, which carries the same implication.
But when a rookie hitter comes up and gets overmatched at first, then settles in… we talk about how he learned the pitchers, and when a rookie pitcher comes up and looks like Sandy Koufax, we talk about the hitters will figure him out… which implies that hitters are at a disadvantage in unfamiliar matchups.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Those are good points
There is a traditional, conventional wisdom to explain all of those situations and they are very contradictory.
But there is the very real issue of teams not having a scouting report on a guy like Aviles early on. For every other player, these pitchers have a detailed breakdown of all of their strengths and weaknesses, their hot and cold zones, their tendencies, everything. For Aviles, they had very little (unless the team has a PCL affiliate and they could get a scouting report from them) and nothing at the major league level. Pitchers just basically had to go after him and see what he could hit and what he couldn’t hit. Every hitter has weaknesses. Over time, the rest of the league is going to figure out what Aviles’s weaknesses are and how to exploit them. This doesn’t mean that he’ll then fail when this happens. But it will make it harder for him to succeed.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions
that's the problem with conventional wisdom
it’s usually neither
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from your mouth to God's ears
man, a cheapie HR hitter, just sitting in our minors, and suddenly he starts producing RBIs…how great would that be?
he’s ALREADY won us at least one game this year. let’s hope he can win us a few more.
Aviles love on Yahoo!
Closing Time: A debut run that would impress even Jay Bruce
Mike Aviles will not be ignored. He hit a home run tonight off St. Louis reliever Ron Villone – the game-winning shot was his third home run in his past five games. The Royals’ 27-year-old rookie is now hitting .333 through his first 45 major-league at bats. He’s scored 12 runs and has nine extra-base hits in his past 11 games…..
As for Aviles’s future, I’m not going to say he’s a going to hit with the type of power Uggla has, but I do think he can reach 20 home runs, hit somewhere north of .280 and steal 10-15 bases given a full season opportunity – that plays very nicely from the shortstop position. In other words, I don’t see him as a flash in the pan. I’ve kinda been guilty of driving the hype train on him the past few days, so I’ll just say this one more time: Grab him without reservation if you still can.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I appreciate the fantasy sports analyst's exuberance
...but not his analytical skill. He basically pulled those numbers out of his arse. I’m willing to be convinced that he could do this, but that kind of assertion needs to be supported, and it was not.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Just to be clear
Redemption is still spelled “R-O-N”, right?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Well,
it’s great that he’s hitting so well, and I’m as glad as everyone else is that TPJ isn’t getting regular PT anymore. For the record, I really didn’t like Pena’s game mcuh from day one. However, let’s keep this is perspective…this is a 50 PA sample, and we still can’t expect much glove-wise.
Also, thus far he’s drawn on unintentional walk and seen 3.45 pitches per plate appearance. Miguel Olivo, who swings at everything, has seen 3.49 this year. That’s not the profile of someone who can afford to lose much batting average and still keep his OBP in even “average” parameters. So I guess he’s going to have keep slugging if he wants to stick. I’m still reserving judgment, in other words.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
My vague expectations for Aviles
An OBP below league average for a SS (although I’m thinking this without looking up what the league average OBP is for SS’s—something in the low .300’s is what I’m thinking for Mikey). And a SLG above league average for a SS.
I think we can say with full confidence that he’s not going to be a big OBP guy (unless he’s a truly magical batsman and continues to hit well over .300. But he does have some genuine pop (and I’m not talking Jason Smith pop either).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
If I remembered where I said it
I’d point you to the explanation of why Aviles’ current walk total is completely irrelevant and why focusing on it at this point is pretty much the exact opposite of actually watching his plate approach.
He’s not walking because he’s getting hittable pitches, and hitting them. Period. When they don’t throw hittable pitches, he doesn’t swing at them.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
That's your theory,
and it’s clear different than mine. I’m looking at the same data, and thinking that it isn’t a positive indicator once Aviles comes back to earth a bit. You can’t expect him to keep OPSing a 1000, so we have to think of what his value will be when he regresses.
Plus, he’s got no track record of good plate discipline in the minors.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
But the point is
there is one thing normally available stats do not tell us, and that’s whether guys are swinging at bad pitches. For that, we have to rely on our eyes.
And my eyes tell me that Aviles actually HAS a good eye. It’s not a theory, it’s a fact.
Yes, he IS going to regress. But I don’t think he’s going to regress to the point where he is an untenable option at short in the short term. He’s too good a hitter, mechanically.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
True, but we can supplement the available walk and OPS data by looking at what Aviles did in the minors (even this year)
He’s never drawn a lot of walks and the vast majority of his OBP has been from his BA. So, if when his BA drops, his OBP should drop to a lowish level.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 11:31 PM EDT up reply actions
But "he's never drawn a lot of walks"
or, for that matter, “he still doesn’t draw a lot of walks and never will”, is functionally irrelevant, and you agreed with me when I made the previously-referenced comment.
Let me put this another way. Walks are a proxy for plate discipline. Someone who walks a lot, well, we KNOW they have plate discipline, because… they’re walking. We don’t have to question, based on looking at little rows of numbers, whether or not they’re hacktastic clowns who swing at anything within an astronomical unit of home plate.
But guys who walk a lot, unless they’re Hall-of-Fame type guys who just hit and Hit and HIT, also take a lot of strikes. I think we all agree that Teahen’s #1 asset is his plate discipline, and look how often he leaves the bat on his shoulder while watching a pitch he should maul.
(Tangent, since I saw this while looking it up: did you know the most common count for Barry Bonds to put the ball in play, by FAR, was on the first pitch? 127 of his homers were on first pitches, too. Crazy, huh?)
So, yes: most of Aviles’ OBP has been from his BA, and it will likely remain so. But it’s not because he doesn’t have plate discipline, and the visual evidence I have from the last two weeks tells me it’s never been because he doesn’t have plate discipline. It’s because he is, for the most part, one of those guys who recognizes the pitches he can hit, and the only times I’ve seen him swinging at balls…?
Well, that takes us right back to the slider low and away, which he clearly thinks is a strike coming in (and if you don’t recognize it, it sure looks like one). Since he’s not Vlad Guerrero, when he swings at those he doesn’t hit them. Once he learns to recognize that pitch, he’ll presumably stop swinging at it; the result will be either (a) more walks or (b) more hits. He does strike out, but not nearly at the rates of Gordon or Guillen. He strikes out about as often as Teahen does; the difference between the two is Teahen does walk, and Aviles is outHITting him by a mile and a half.
This is one of those scout vs. stathead arguments which I, despite having grovelled at the altar of Bill James since before the Royals ever won a World Series, actually side with the scouts (and certain statheads who think OBP is over-weighted in OPS) to an extent. Walks are good and OBP is king, but there’s a difference between a guy whose OBP is entirely driven by his BAvg because he’s Luis Castillo or Juan Pierre, and a guy whose OBP is entirely driven by his BAvg and can slug in the mid-.400s or better. In other words, there are exceptions to the rule. Aviles may NOT be one of them. He could just be having incredible luck with BABIP combined with pitchers not knowing how to handle him yet, and a month from now he’ll be hitting .220/.250/.300. (Which would still be a few wins better than TPJ, damn it all.) We’re just not going to be able to properly answer that question for a few months.
All I know is, watching him hit, he’s not some hacktastic clod who doesn’t know where the zone is. He has appeared to exhibit a good approach at the plate, and most of his outs have been quite well-struck. (He got robbed tonight on a beautiful line drive up the middle because Kennedy was playing about three feet off the bag, for example.) You’re completely correct when you say that if his BAvg plummets, he’ll be horrible; I just don’t think it’s going to based on what I’m seeing from him. Yeah, it’s going to drop, but I think he’ll still maintain a .750+ OPS at worst.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on Jun 19, 2008 2:29 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I agree with a lot of that
He’s mostly been swinging at strikes and that’s a very good thing. But he has never been a guy to draw a lot of walks. So, if everything works out right, he’ll be a higher batting average guy with an OBP which isn’t a lot hither than his BA. Something like this: .290/.320/.425 Now, this isn’t a prediction; it is just the kind of statistical profile that I expect from him based on what he’s done in the minors and what I’ve seen from his hitting approach in the majors.
So I think the point NHZ made is correct. His OBP is going to b BA-driven. When he’s making a lot of good contact, he’ll have a decent OBP. When he’s not hitting, he won’t have an ability to draw walks to keep getting him on base. This isn’t to say that he’s a poor player; it’s just a description of a positive and a negative.
Now of course this doesn’t say anything about his SLG. He may keep slugging like he has been with a much higher IsoP than I gave him. So far when he’s made contact, it has been with a lot of power. I hope that continues.
All I know is, watching him hit, he’s not some hacktastic clod who doesn’t know where the zone is.
I agree, but I want you to know that I wasn’t saying that he is and I don’t think NHZ was saying that either. What we’re saying is that his OBP is going to be almost entirely dependent on him getting hits, which will likely keep his OBP down.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 19, 2008 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
For the record,
morse, I wasn’t saying he was a hacktastic clod either-not yet, anyway. And yes, you make a very good argument-one that a lot of people don’t understand—about how a hitter can be disciplined without taking all that many walks. My point was mainly to say that, taking into account his minor league numbers along with the sample in the majors, it looks as if Aviles’ OBP is going to run very closely with his batting average. If Aviles proves me wrong by working the count well even as he regresses, then maybe I’ll change that opinion.
I can't say I was all that excited Aviles coming up, and I really still haven't changed my opinion much. I mean, it's good for him and the team the way he's hit, and of course it's totally out of line with anything Aviles has ever done or been projected to do.A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
All, right,
I have no idea why it did that.
Anyways, I was just going to say that Aviles has done well with the bat, but I just can’t get quite that excited about him until he reaches more of “his level” what the bat. Right now, he’s hitting well above anything he’s ever done before or been projected to do, and I’m trying to keep things in perspective by pointing out that there are, and will be, warts.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Okay, we all agree on the relevant and important points.
Now let’s do shots.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
I'm in
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jun 19, 2008 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions
His OBP will be directly tied with his ability to hit the slider.
I have watched almost all of his Ab’s as I’m sure you all have. The book developing currently is throw him the slider low and away. If he can lay off that pitch when it is out of the zone then his OBP will be in that .320-340 range that NY layed out. If not then his BA will drop and his OBP might be in the .280-300 range.
I do think that middle infielders as a whole BB less because the damage they can cause when you throw them strikes is less. Alberto has a nice OBP but I think in the future if his power stays the same he will struggle to keep that .50-60 difference between his OBP and Avg. If Aviles can lay off that slider low and out of the zone his natural pop should allow him to BB more if he is patient.
Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.
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