Bullpen roles

by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 6:37 AM EDT

It is now an article of the faith in MLB that all bullpens must have -- as much as is possible -- set and clear roles for all of the relievers in their bullpens. While I don't necessarily agree with this, it is about as changeable as the DH. It is a reality we have to deal with. If I were running a bulllpen, I'd handle it radically different from any current manager, but that's just not realistic. So let's deal with the real world of a MLB bullpen. This is how I think Trey Hillman sees the relievers roles:

Current Bullpen

Soria - Closer

Ramirez - RH setup man (7th/8th inning)

Mahay - LH setup man (7th/8th inning)

Yabuta - Middle reliever and next RH option behind Ramirez (6th/7th inning)

Gobble - Middle reliever and next LH option behind Mahay (6th/7th inning)

Fulchino - Mop up

Rosa - Intern

The first three speak for themselves: traditional closer and setup men. Yabuta and Gobble fill more flexible roles, typically bridging the gap between the starting pitcher and the setup men, facing as many righty and lefty batters as they need to. Fulchino works almost exclusively in a mop up role, eating a meaningless inning or two here or there. Rosa's role is the hardest to define because at this point, they are just bringing him along slowly so as to not expose him to too much too soon. These are the roles these pitchers are in when everyone is rested and available. If someone is gassed or otherwise unavailable, some pitchers have to move up the ladder into another role.

One question I have about the current bullpen is, who is the long reliever? If Bannister gets pulled in the 3rd inning tonight, who comes in to chew up 3 innings? Rosa could do it, but would they allow him to go more than once through a lineup at this point? Fulchino could do it, but, of course, he sucks. The others are pretty much limited to two innings.

The Bullpen I'd Like to See Immediately

Soria - Closer

Ramirez - RH setup man (7th/8th inning)

Mahay - LH setup man (7th/8th inning)

Yabuta - Middle reliever (6th/7th inning)

Gobble - LOOGY (6th/7th/8th inning)

Musser - Middle reliever (6th/7th inning)

Rosa - Middle-to-long reliever

I'd keep the top three as is. I'd send Fulchino back down to Omaha and recall Musser. If we're in a pre-setup man situation, I'd use Yabuta, Musser, Gobble and Rosa in the best matchups to get us through to the 7th or 8th inning. I'd use Gobble as a strict LOOGY, allowing him to face righty batters only when necessary. I wouldn't hesitate to have Gobble, Yabuta and Musser face three consecutive batters. Rosa would be the default long reliever, but as soon as he got to the second time through the lineup, I'd have him on a short leash.

The Ideal Bullpen for July and Beyond

Soria - Closer

Ramirez - RH setup man (7th/8th inning)

Mahay - LH setup man (7th/8th inning)

Nunez - Middle reliever (6th/7th inning)

Gobble - LOOGY (6th/7th/8th inning)

Yabuta - Middle reliever (5th/6th/7th inning)

Musser - Middle reliever (5th/6th/7th inning)

When Nunez comes off the DL, I'd keep the top three in their spots. Ramirez has been better than Nunez and the second best reliever on the team. Nunez, Gobble, Yabuta and Musser would handle the pre-setup innings. There is no long reliever, per se, but with a seven man bullpen, I don't know that you really need one. Everyone in that pen can handle two innings except for Gobble, and many could handle a third inning if need be.

I think the above bullpen gives the Royals the best chance to stay close, hold leads and win games.

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Comments

I agree mostly

I really liked the way Nunez handled the set-up role, but Ramirez has looked great too, so I think it’s whoever the hot pitcher is in that slot. When Nunez gets back, I could really see this team having the shut-down bullpen similar to last year.

by I need more Esteban on Jun 18, 2008 9:49 AM EDT reply actions

where the hell is peralta?!!!

j/k. Although I would assume we’d be better off with him than Yabuta.

(Yabuta’s recent string of positive performances notwithstanding, Peralta had superior K/9, K:BB an WHIP. In many ways, Peralta was pitching as well or better than ever—just had a few pesky HRs and a lot more runs allowed.)

More than anything, though: I can’t wait to have Nunez back.

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Jun 18, 2008 10:31 AM EDT reply actions

Peralta vs. Yabuta

Peralta was given a lot of chances to redeem himself this season and things just got worse and worse. That’s just way too many HR’s. Way, way too many. I appreciate the K’s and BB’s, but you also have to appropriately take into consideration the other defense independent outcome. Put them together and you don’t get a pretty picture for Peralta

Pitcher ERA FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
Peralta 5.64 6.35
Yabuta 4.71 5.33

So Yabuta has been better overall, and better over the last month+. Unless Peralta’s HR rate in the PCL drops significantly over the next couple of months, I don’t want him back in KC unless injury necessitates it. I appreciate what Peralta has done for the Royals in past seasons, but he’s having a really bad season this year.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

Agree - no more Peralta

The longball just can’t happen that often our of a reliever.

I am in agreement with the bullpen, except for Gobble. He’s shown me nothing this year, and I’d probably prefer to have Rosa with Musser and Gobble be gone.

by Dubya on Jun 18, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Gobble has continued to dominate lefties

If he were used as a LOOGY this year, as he was last year, he’d be nearly as successful overall.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

I like Nunez for the 8th

When he’s fully healthy, not immediately when he returns. I think he has electric stuff. RamRam is good too, but not quite as unhittable as Leo can be.

Rosa is your long man, since he used to be a starter I would think. Musser should be up over Fulchino, I agree with your assessment.

You know, the bullpen went through a rough stretch there for awhile, but under this alignment, I still have a lot of confidence in them. Just hope Trey uses his resources wisely.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 18, 2008 10:54 AM EDT reply actions

+1

The right alignment is key. And the starters have to hold up their end of the bargain for that to happen.

"Greinke and the Brain" (R) (C) TM

by SittinByTheFoulPole on Jun 18, 2008 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree

Nunez was pretty awesome and he gave us a lot of options with him and RamRam pitching so well. It seems like its once Nunez went down that all hell broke loose in the bullpen.

by raefzilla on Jun 18, 2008 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Ramirez has out-pitched Nunez this year

And Ramirez’s stuff looks better to me. Nearly as good of a fastball with a better breaking ball. That’s why he’s been getting so many more K’s (even more K/9 than Soria).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions

By what metric?

His ERA is higher. His OPS against is higher. I guess Ram-Ram’s K-BB ratio is better, but Nunez has been harder to hit.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 18, 2008 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

ERA has some meaning, but it is a particularly troublesome stat for relievers

But I do take it into account, and Nunez has the better ERA. But let’s look at some other key stats:

Stat Ramirez Nunez
K/9 10.19 6.9 (Ramirez takes this one by a huge margin, and this is arguably the most important stat for any reliever)
BB/9 3.58 3.0 (Nunez by a little)
K/BB 2.85 2.0 (Ramirez by a significant margin)
FIP 1.92 3.08 (Ramirez by a wide margin)
BABIP .337 .223 (This shows that Nunez has had more than a little batted ball luck. Now the difference isn’t as huge as the BABIP makes it look because Nunez has a lower LD%, but there’s still some significant luck here. There’s a lot of luck in being “hard to hit’)

Suffice it to say that the preponderance of the evidence shows that Ramirez has been the better pitcher this year.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions

"ERA . . . is a particularly troublesome stat for relievers"?

FIP? Comparing BABIP with LD%? The words of caution about Kyle Davies in the other post?

I think we are finally starting to talk the same language.

by Gopherballs on Jun 18, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Gobble

I agree completely that he should be used strictly as a LOOGY. His splits are drastic and that seemed to be the role he fit into best last year. Musser hasn’t been nearly as good in Omaha in 2008 as in 2007 (although a sub-0.50 ERA is difficult to match). I’m not convinced last year wasn’t an aberation. That said, Fulchino certainly isn’t the answer. Count me down as excited to get Noonie back because that, IMO, makes Ramirez better too. He doesn’t get so overexposed/overused.

Does Bale come back around the ASB and fit in? I can see him fitting in the potential middle-relief role quite nicely if he can keep his left cross in check.

"Greinke and the Brain" (R) (C) TM

by SittinByTheFoulPole on Jun 18, 2008 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

Bale could slot into Musser's spot in the bullpen

...whenever he gets back to 100%.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jun 18, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions

...or we could simply DFA or trade him

Our bullpen has so much depth that I’m not sure if Bale would bring much to the table. With the sort of depth we have there, he shouldn’t (and wouldn’t) be used in much more than a long relief/mop-up capacity, and Musser can probably do that job for a lot less money.

I’m also a little concerned by the absolute faith you have in RamRam—I think he’s been great for us this year too, but I think the league has started to adjust to him in the last month or so. His ERA has jumped in the last month by about 1.5 runs, and while I’ll spot you that ERA is a more meaningful stat for starters than for relievers, it is disconcerting nonetheless. If the league continues to adjust to RamRam, I have no problem with having Nunez eventually competing with him for the job of primary RH setup man.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 18, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Bale would be the fourth or fifth best pitcher in the bullpen

Bale was quite effective last year in the bullpen—he pitched about as well as Mahay. He is a lefty without a significant platoon split and can pitch multiple innings, so he is more valuable than a pure LOOGY like Gobble. With Tomko gone, he is the best option as the sixth starter. He is currently cheaper than Mahay, and under club control for three more years. His numbers this year came in a small sample size (15 IP) and are skewed by one horrible outing when he pitched hurt.

by Gopherballs on Jun 18, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

After Nunez comes back from the DL

I think he, Soria, RamRam, and Mahay would represent the top four arms in our bullpen. I think Yabuta is starting to head that way-he has been more effective, including in situations where he is not sent in for mop-up/white flag duty, and if he continues adjusting to MLB hitting, I think he may be a more effective reliever than Bale. I think where we differ is on the value of having a LOOGY like Gobble-Gobble has dominated LH hitting in a way unmatched by Bale, and while I think Gobble has been awful this year, I place a fair amount of that blame on Hillman for overexposing him. I realize Bale isn’t a pure LOOGY like Gobble, but I still don’t see what role Bale is suited for that others in the bullpen aren’t better suited for aside from long relief/mop-up duty, and like I said, we could get Musser or even Peralta to do that for us for less money. He is the best option for a sixth starter, I’ll spot you that. I guess I don’t know if that alone is worth keeping him on the 25-man roster.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 18, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions

A decent LHP who can pitch to both righties and lefties is significantly more valuable than a LOOGY

Gobble has dominated LH hitting in a way unmatched by Bale

Gobble v. LHB 2007: .241/.325/.398 .724 OPS
Bale v. LHB 2007: 281/.360/.375 .735 OPS

Bale was essentially as effective against LHB as Gobble, yet Bale can pitch to RHB without giving up a HR every other hitter.

Bale was a much better pitcher last year than Yabuta has been this year (and Bale had to adjust from NPL to MLB hitters too), and a decent LHP is a more valuable commodity than a decent RHP.

by Gopherballs on Jun 18, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions

Gobble against lefties this year:

.121/.171/.273.

Bale against lefties this year (granted, small sample size, but still, the difference is pretty jarring):

.429/.478/.524.

Arguing that Gobble and Bale are equally effective against lefties is really not accurate, especially with how well Gobble has been pitching lefties this year. There is no way Bale is going to equal that sort of a line coming off the DL.

Re: Bale versus Yabuta—I think Yabuta is showing signs of a capacity to progress past Bale’s effectiveness. I’m not saying it’ll happen tomorrow, or next week, or next month, but I think Yabuta has a higher ceiling than Bale in adjusting from the NPL to the MLB. Bale has also spent huge chunks of this year and last year on the DL, while Yabuta has maintained a relatively clean bill of health.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 18, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Bale has pitched the equivalent of 5 innings against LHB this year

Gobble has pitched the equivalent of 9 innings against LHB this year. It is hard to find a smaller sample size. Plus, Bale was pitching as a starter and was injured in his last start, which skews the data even further.

Bale career v. LHB: .242/.328/.333 .661 OPS

by Gopherballs on Jun 18, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Bale should be either

dropped or forced to take a Guillen beating for his door antics

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jun 18, 2008 1:55 PM EDT reply actions

The trade market will make an dent in the second half bullpen

Ron Mahay should be moved if they can get a good deal for him. John Bale could fill his role, not as well, but can pitch late in the game when healthy. Would like to see Rosa in the middle/long relief role if he is ready. Really like Gobble as LOOGY only and Musser in the LH long relief role. H. Ramirez has done a nice job lately and might be worthy more of a look.

The middle/long relief role could be filled by numerous types on hand like Peralta or Yabuta. If Mahay stays, Bale would look great in that role since the starting rotation is all RH and the LH long reliever might help KC stay in games longer.

For me, here is the ideal look if all are present and not traded:
Closer – Soria
Setup RH 7-8 – Nunez or R. Ramirez
Setup LH 7-8 – Mahay
LOOGY only – Gobble
Middle 6-8 RH – R. Ramirez or Nunez
Middle 5-7 LH – Bale
Middle 5-7 RH – Peralta

H. Ramirez, Yabuta, Musser, and Rosa are available for injuries or when trades open up a spot.

by daveyork on Jul 15, 2008 11:14 AM EDT reply actions