Settling on a lineup
by Matty486 on Jun 26, 2008 1:35 AM EDT
73 comments
I know we are all excited about the recent winning ways of our boys in blue and the way our offense has been performing, but I don't think we are performing well because of all the players that get into the lineup but in spite of that. At what point do we know what we have and go with a certain lineup for the rest of the way (barring injuries and the OCCASIONAL day off)? I'm going with July 15th. I figure by then Butler will have taken Pena's place on the team and possibly Grud will be back playing regularly. I think these guys should be in there 19 out of 20 games. Olivo and Buck (DH and C), Butler (DH or 1B), Aviles (SS), Gordon (3B), Grud (2B), if Grud gets traded then Callaspo (2B), DDJ, Guillen, and Teahen (OF). Our lineup against right handers could include Gload instead of Olivo or Buck. But THAT'S IT. 2 lineups. Games that include Gathright and Pena make me throw up in my mouth a little. None of those 1st 11 guys are auto outs.
What do you think? July 15th? By then we should see:
DDJ
Aviles
Gordon
Guillen
Grud
Teahen
Butler
Olivo / Gload
Buck
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Bench players are always going to get starts
Especially on day games after night games. And Grudz will usually get two days off a week even when healthy. And Guillen’s hip flexor may continue to require him to DH every now and then. It would be nice to be able to go with just two lineups, but the reality is that players need days off and no manager is going to just let his bench players stagnate and never get a start.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
September call ups are different
Most of them get a handful of AB’s. Most don’t deserve even that.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
CF DeJesus
2B Callaspo
3B Gordon
LF Guillen
SS Aviles
RF Teahen
1B Butler
DH Olivo/Costa (platoon)
C Buck/Olivo
That’s when Grud is traded. It’ll probably happen at some point. I think Olivo and Costa could be a very productive platoon.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
This website has
given me an irrational hatred for Shane Costa.
by I need more Esteban on Jun 26, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't get what Costa is
actually going to bring to the table other than a hole in the line-up.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
??
Costa could just be a late bloomer. Look at a Skip Schumaker in St. Louis. He has cooled off recently, but still is a very productive player at the major league level right now.
Costa has improved from A ball to AA ball. He improved going from AA ball to AAA ball. That carryover has not made it to the majors as of yet…but it could still happen. I agree that Costa will not do much, if anything, this year. I would just say do not write him off for the future yet.
Skip Schumaker
is a reserve outfielder at best who has managed to convince Tony La Russa that he’s better than that because of a fluky high batting average. You must be a stlfan to have start an actual argument with
Look at a Skip Schumaker in St. Louis
...because there’s nothing to look at.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Skip/David Dejesus
From what I gather living in the KC area, David Dejesus is a pretty respected and well-liked ball player around here. Skip has shown this year that he is a very comparable player to Dejesus. He is a center fielder with slightly less power and slightly more speed on the base paths (or intelligence because of his SB%). That, and, he makes 1/5 the money. They are the same age and it is Dejesus’ 5th full season in the majors, whereas it is only Skip’s 1st or 2nd, depending on if you think 88 games last year qualifies…so Dejesus has a lot more experience than Skip up in the bigs. That would be a key reason why Skip does not look as well in left field (his secondary position) as Dejesus does in left (also his secondary position.
Skip is 28, the same age as DeJesus
They are both at their peak. And Skip is basically a platoon player. He is absolutely dominated by LHP’s. And he’s a part-time player, so his numbers are artificially inflated by the fact that he faces a disproportionate number of LHP’s. There is no comparison between Skippy and DeJesus.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Mentioned that
they were the same age. That’s all well and good, though.
Skip has played in 11 more games than Dejesus this year…and has 15 more ABs. He’s not that much of a platoon out there. Right now, Barton and Duncan are not viable options in the OF so Skip is a starter. I’m just trying to point out that Skip is pretty comparable to one of the Royals’ own here in KC. If I had to pick one, I would (no doubt) pick Dejesus over Skip. But, that being said, their career OPS+ is one apart, career SLG is .001 apart and career OBP is .010 apart. You can’t fault Skip that Tony La Russa uses his bench players more than any other manager in the majors.
Saying that there is “no comparison between Skippy and DeJesus” is absolutely absurd and ridiculous and shows a lack of knowledge OR an unwillingness to see that, by the counting numbers this year and the aggregate numbers over careers, Skip is comparing quite well to DeJesus.
The fact is, however, that DeJesus is an every day player at this point in his career. He has been in the majors for 4.5 seasons of playing every day. This is Schumaker’s first year playing every day in the majors (77 of 81 games with 3.5 AB/game would definitely show that he is an every day player this year, not a supersub or platoon player, as you suggest.) Schumaker may not turn out to be quite the every day player over 4.5 years or more that DeJesus has become, but it is a darn good comparison.
DeJesus has put up numbers like this over multiple years (2005, 2006, 2008)
This is Skip’s first year as a near full-time player. As soon as Skip does this for another couple of years, then we can talk.
Saying that there is "no comparison between Skippy and DeJesus" is absolutely absurd and ridiculous and shows a lack of knowledge OR an unwillingness to see that, by the counting numbers this year and the aggregate numbers over careers, Skip is comparing quite well to DeJesus.
Skip has had all of one half season as a full-time player and he’s doing pretty well. DeJesus has been playing well for years as a MLB regular. They have similar career numbers? You might want to re-check those counting stats. Skip has 156 career MLB hits, 28 doubles, 9 HR’s and 52 RBI. DeJesus has 623 hits, 122 doubles, 39 HR’s, and 250 RBI. Don’t tell me that some 28-year-old who doesn’t even have a full season of MLB AB’s under his belt is “comparing quite well to DeJesus.” That’s a joke.
You can’t fault Skip that Tony La Russa uses his bench players more than any other manager in the majors.
Skip is a career bench player, period. Comparing him to a multi-year MLB regular because he’s had a good half season is laughable.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
alright, I'm done
You’re not reading and responding to what you read. I said that the “counting numbers THIS YEAR and the AGGREGATE NUMBERS OVER CAREERS.”
2008
Skip Schumaker 81-267 .303, 14 2b, 3 3b, 6 hr, 30 rbi, 27 bb, 34 k, 119 total bases
David DeJesus 80-252 .317, 11 2b, 3 3b, 8 hr, 41 rbi, 21 bb, 29 k, 121 total bases
Career
Skip Schumaker 103 OPS+, .299 avg, .350 obp, .423 slg
David DeJesus 104 OPS+, .286 avg, .360 obp, .422 slg
That’s what I was looking at when I wrote this year’s counting numbers and career aggregate stats.
Similarly, Mike Aviles compares very favorably to Derek Jeter
Jeter
.281/.342/.391
Aviles
.321/.348/.560
I take it back. They aren’t comparable. Aviles is much better!
This all goes to show that comparing a good half season to a good longer career is silly and pointless.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Going to extremes?
That might be going to the extreme a little bit…comparing an 8 time all star and 2 time gold glove winner to a rookie with 84 ABs to his credit…but I see your point. At least Skip has over 500 ABs at this point…which is like having one full season under your belt. Good point, though. I will change my stance to “if Skip can keep up his current production, then DeJesus will be a very good comparison…somewhat soon.”
And if he maintains platoon splits like he's had in his first full-time season
...he’ll become a platoon-only player or bench player somewhat soon.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
And Slappy Joe
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 26, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
And He Who Explodes
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 26, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Thank you,
everyone, for proving my point with your faint praise. :p
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
His philosophical approach brings wisdom and insight
The Royals can still win the division, “u never know”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
For some reason
I don’t think Grudz will get traded. Maybe because there’s no deal out there to be made, but also because I think Dayton needs his grit and moxie and veteran presence for a team pushing for .500.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 26, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe.
We might get a draft pick back too. Which might be better than a mediocre prospect we get in return.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I'm not so sure
If that were GMDM’s thinking, then why didn’t he just let Grudz walk last year? I’m pretty sure Grudz was good enough last year to fetch us a draft pick if he walked.
FWIW, my ideal lineup, assuming Grudz gets flipped:
LF DeJesus (L)
2B Callaspo (S)
3B Gordon (L) (possible platoon situation—what about letting Butler hit #3 against LH starters and letting Smirky slide down a few spots in the order?)
RF Guillen®
SS Aviles®
DH Butler®
1B Teabag (L)
C Buck®
CF Gathright (L)
Great "platoon" idea
I wonder why this isn’t done more often—young left-handed hitters moving down so they still get reps against lefties and stay in the lineup, but helping the offense by putting a righty in their place higher up
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
The Tigers did that with Granderson
The A’s have done it too at various times.
On Grudz, to get a draft pick, the team would have to offer him arbitration, which Grudz would likely accept because (1) with the way arbitration works, the arbitrator would likely award Grudz close to his current salary of $4.5 million and (2) Grudz is unlikely to get more than that amount in free agency, as the market for second basemen is not very strong. This is too bad because a supplemental first round pick should be worth more than what Moore could get back in a trade for Grudz.
I forgot that we would have to offer arbitration to get the draft pick
I like Grudz a lot, but even getting a mediocre prospect for him now would probably be preferable to keeping him around for another year and blocking Callaspo and/or Aviles.
Not necessarily
1. Grud is set for life. If he plays beyond this year (and I think he will), I doubt it’s because of the dough.
2. Since he’s set for life, if DM/TH tell him he isn’t going to be starting anymore for us, why would he accept? His production well warrants another 1yr/4m contract from another team in need of a stop gap second baseman.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Do you think he isn't going to take the deal that would make him the most money?
You think he’d prefer the $4M from another team to the $5M he would get from arbitration? I’m sure if he plays baseball next year it will be because he wants to play the game, not just for the money. But, if he’s playing, I’m sure he wants to maximize his salary. Beyond just wanting more money, I think players judge the value/respect based on how much they make. I don’t think Grudz is going to volunteer to take less money elsewhere.
Offering Grudz arbitration would be very risky. I think they only chance Grudz would turn it down is if Moore tells him that if he comes back, he’s definitely not starting and that he’d spend most of the season on the bench behind Callaspo (and/or Aviles).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I think its harder to say for a guy like Grudz
He’s made his money. He wants to play. And he may want one more chance at a championship. If a contender came to him and wanted him, or if a team offered him a starting job, I can see him bolting if Dayton told him he would be a backup here.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Could be
I don’t know if Moore is willing to do this, but if I were him I’d have a sit down with Grudz soon, explain that the Royals want to keep him around this season, but go with Callaspo next season and see if he’s willing to turn down a pro forma arbitration offer. Hopefully Grudz wouldn’t consider that an insult. But I’d like to find out now if he’s willing to do that so the Royals can make their deadline trade decision.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Name a contender in need of a 2B
or really any team with an opening at 2B and without a prospect in the high minors (or a younger player like Callaspo on the roster) ready to take over next year.
Even with the rather large assumption that Grudz would take significantly less money to go elsewhere, it is very unlikely that he would find a significantly better situation with another team—he can take the money and stay in KC to serve as a veteran insurance policy.
Second base is just not a very difficult position to fill, and no GM is going to risk paying $4-$5 million to a backup second baseman for a supplemental pick.
Maybe
Astros to hedge their bet with Kaz Matsui
Indians may be able to use a vet 2B
Nats could use a 2B next year, although they’re not a contender
The Cubs are always adding middle infielders!
Do the Dodgers have a 2B plan if Kent retires?
Rox may want a vet to compete with Nix, Barmes, Quintanilla
Cards could use one as Kennedy has sucked
Point taken though, the options are not great.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Good points
There will be a market for him. Some teams will want to upgrade that position and like the looks of a guy who has been near a 100 OPS for the last few years with plus defense.
But I still think he’d take the arbitration offer. But maybe not if Moore makes clear to him that he’d be riding the pine. Offering him arbitration would still be a significant risk.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Who is going to pay him $4-$5 million to compete for playing time?
The Astros are already committed to Matsui for $5 million for two more years. The Indians have Cabrera and Barfield, and do not spend extra for backups. The Nats already have guaranteed money to Belliard (and some team will take a chance on Lopez if he leaves, filling another potential vacancy). The Dodgers already have Tony Abreu. The Rockies also have Baker, and are not going to spend extra money for veterans while rebuilding. The Cards already have Miles putting up Grudz-like numbers while still paying Kennedy $4 million next year.
None of these teams are going to guarantee Grudz a starting job or pay him $4 million as a backup or insurance plan. There would be interest in him, but only if he comes cheap.
While I don't completely disagree with you...
$4M is nothing nowadays. If a team is worried about their current situation at 2B, I don’t think they are going to worry much about spending $4M to shore up that position.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I get what you are saying
but $4 million is a lot for a regular 2B - Grudz at $4.5 million is the 10th highest paid 2B in the majors this year - and an unheard of amount for a backup.
Mark Loretta was essentially in the same situation as Grudz last year, could not find a regular job (at least one that would pay him as much as he made in 2007), and had to settle for accepting arbitration and a backup job.
An example
The Yankees have a second baseman who looks like crap this year. The Yankees probably won’t know if they can rely on Cano next year. And they’ll be desperate to get into and succeed in the playoffs in 2009. I’m confident that they’d be willing to pay someone like Grudz $4M as Cano-insurance. But of course, for the Yankees, $4M is only 2% of their payroll, so their situation is somewhat unique. But, for a $100M payroll team, it would be only 4%. If some team is rolling in money (and many are) and wants to upgrade or provide insurance for the 2B position, I could easily see them spending $4+M on Grudz.
But these are only possibilities. I could also see the best offer for him only being $1-2M. That’s why the Royals can’t afford to offer him arbitration unless they get some promise from him that he’ll decline it.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Name a free agent 2B who got $4+ million but was expected to play less than 50% of the time
2B is not a premium position, either defensively or offensively.
The Yankees spending $4+ million on a backup 2B who can play no other positions is a pretty remote possibility. The Yankees will not pay Grudz $4 million just because they can afford it—they would only pay him $4 million if someone else is offering him $3.9 million, they cannot find anyone just as (or almost as) good for less, and they decide they have no bigger need than overpaying to give Cano a caddy. Besides, the Yankees still owe Cano $27 million after this year and are going to give him every chance to turn things around.
The problem for the Royals is that they will not get the benefit of waiting to the offseason to gauge the market to make the decision on Grudz—they either have to trade him in a few weeks, or be content to let him walk at the end of the year without any compensation.
I don't think they would give him that much expecting him to play less than 50% of the time
For instance, the Yankees might expect someone like Grudz to play more than 50% of the time, because they’ve lost faith in Cano. Just one possibility.
I’m not saying the Yankees are going to sign Grudz. But they aren’t going to stick with Cano merely because they owe him money. That organization understands sunk costs and if they think it’s likely that he’ll be a poor player next year, they’ll pay someone else to be the presumptive starter.
I understand the Royals issue with Grudz. And, as I’ve said all along, since they can’t assume Grudz will decline arbitration and test the FA market, they need to trade him before the deadline for whatever they can get for him (unless they can get Grudz to agree in July to not accept a later arbitration offer, which seems extremely unlikely).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
It seems to me
that there’s a team unafraid to commit money out there whose second baseman is the only guy who has a legitimate argument for being a worse hitter than TPJ this season.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
If you mean the Yankees
Yeah, Cano has been a big disappointment this year, and isn’t exactly raking now, but it was really April that was horrible (.465 OPS). He’s OPSed .765 in May, and is at .715 in June. Still bad, especially for him, but nowhere near TPJ.
Hmmm… high contact, low walk-rate hitter who had a terrible April, sounds familiar for some reason
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not the whole point, though.
Plenty of teams wouldn’t mind having Grudz as a bench player, I’ll wager.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Maybe the figure
Gordon will never get good against lefties unless he faces them.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Yeah
that’s why you keep him in the lineup, but just move him down against LHPs, so that the team has better #s from the 3-hole, and The Smirk gets his reps, too, just from the #7 spot or something
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
But if he moves around in the batting order he'll never get used to his role!
You can’t forget that old chestnut.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Reading that
made me want to photoshop a picture of you strangling a beagle and circulating it around the internet.
It's pretty sad
that 187 year-old Jim Leyland is one of the few managers willing to go with a “crazy” idea like this.
(Yes, Leyland is another guilty pleasure for me. [guilty because I realize he’s just another manager] Leyland smoking >>> Scoscia smoking, >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Adam Kennedy smoking.)
I’m not sure whether I’d be more nervous in front of Jose Guillen [“You’d better be on base for me, (bleep)ing (bleeper)” or behind him [“I made all this effort to get on-base, so don’t be a baby and drive me the (bleep) in!\]. Probably behind him, since he only gets on-base by hitting HRs these days.
Jose Guillen, Master of the two true outcomes: first-pitch XBH, first-pitch groundout.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Meaning I'd be less nervous hitting behind him
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
That was pretty much my thinking as well
The only problem I would see is that I would like to space Teabag and Smirky out against LH starters because both of them get schooled by LHPs, and my lineup as is would stick them right next to each other. I might move Buck up a spot to accomodate for that.
How about Olivo?
If we are working out the ideal lineup for lefties, I’d replace Buck with Olivo, since MO can really only hit lefties and Buck is in the .210 somewhere against them.
To me, Olivo is too much of an OBP sink
to bat in the #3 hole.
Although the thought did cross my mind.
As for Buck v. Olivo—I think Buck is generally the better catcher and should be catching the majority of the games.
I agree
But we don’t have a wealth of great right handed bats sitting around.
Oh Ryan Shealy, why can’t you get good all of a sudden?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I heard there's this guy on the Portland Beavers...
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Once he gets is OPS in Portland up over .700, we can start thinking about trading for him
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Chip's in Portland too?
They’re running a real former Royals academy over there. Brandon Berger should be available; they should sign him up.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
"Alex, we think you have a future in the majors, we really do, but there's needs we needed to address..."
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
My $.02
Facing RHP’s:
DDJ CF
Callaspo 2B
Gordon 3B
Guillen LF
Aviles SS
Teahen RF
Butler 1B
Costa DH
Buck C
Facing LHP’s:
DDJ CF
Callaspo 2B
Aviles SS
Guillen LF
Olivo C
Butler 1B
Teahen RF
Gordon 3B
German DH
This might be the best way to give Costa an opportunity to prove he can hit in MLB.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Just split up teahen and Gordon vs. LHPs
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Move Butler up 1, then put Olivo between Teahen and Gordon
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
You Gotta Admit
Having Teahen, Gordon and German in the lower third against anyone is better than Gload, Gator and TPJ. I don’t worry too much about too many RH bats in a row, as they usually don’t have the big platoon splits, Olivo being the obvious exception.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jun 26, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I like it
I’m not concerned about righties in a row, but Teahan and Gordon next to each other
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Do You Think
They’ll fight?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jun 26, 2008 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude
It’s like having Shannon Dougherty and Tiffani Amber-Thiessen next to each other
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 26, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
In My Dream
Heather and Denise kiss and make up in bikinis, then decide they can share me.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jun 27, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
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