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Bill Hall

Kansas_city_royals-1_tiny by eboston on

According to MLBTR (as I am sure some of you have already read) Bill Hall is hoping for a trade. What does everyone think of him playing SS for our boys in blue. He'd be an upgrade at the plate. And he's not the worst on defense (he has to play the position better than German). I would be for it. Still would rather try to land Greene, but Hall would be a nice pick up also.

The question is what would the Brewers want in return. Any ideas?

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Not sure what the Brewers want in return

I think they have massive bullpen issues though. But I can’t see Bill Hall being moved merely for relievers. Probably prospects.

How is his defense at short? I do have some concerns about Hall though. He gets awfully expensive in 2009 and 2010 ($6.8 million in 2009, $8.4 mill in 2010). 2006 seems like a big aberration for him. More likely he’s a 90 OPS+ kinda guy – Teahen with fewer walks and a bit more power.

But Teahen at shortstop would be fairly valuable. And if the Royals have money to burn and can afford to overpay for a shortstop with those kinda numbers, it might be worth it. Depends on the level of prospect we’d have to give up.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 11:16 AM EDT   0 recs

ya, i don't know too much about him

depending on his defense, i’d be game, see what it would cost.

plus, i think we probably have some payroll space we didn’t use in the off season, so we could absorb the money to lower the prospect cost.

i don’t think teahen is the right comp for him tho, hall is more of a power guy, which this team could use badly

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 11:25 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Teahen is a poor comp

I wasn’t meaning to compare the two, just their OPS+ Hall has better power, and not nearly as much plate discipline.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 12:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I was thinking along those lines,

i.e. going to a pitching starved up-and-comer organization and trading pitching prospects for offense. Without doing a lot of research the Pirates come to mind for me. I don’t know what they have in their organization, but if we could grab one of their ML outfielders for DDJ and someone like Rosa and maybe a lower level PP.

2009 OF – Burrell, McLouth, Guillen…please don’t wake me from this dream!

I have many leather bound books...

by juano on Jun 3, 2008 11:52 AM EDT   0 recs

i rather keep

DDJ and rosa in that scenario

but yes, i think that has always been dayton’s idea. acquire a bunch young ‘live’ arms and use them as currency to fill in the gaps of the organization in the future.

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 11:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

same here

DDJ is really an above average player. And rosa is looking awsome so far.

but honestly i don’t know if i’d trust a pirate outfielder. It could just be a freak season for them to have so many home runs and be hitting so well. Many people seem to think that. Also i don’t know about McLouth but that outfield would prolly be very poor defensivly they’d better hit reaaaaaally good to make up for the runs they let over their heads.

by cfizzle on Jun 3, 2008 12:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I wouldn''t trust them, either

they’ll probably take all of Sluggr’s gold and bury it on some remote tropical island.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2008 1:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think Retro has this one nailed

Bill Hall is a pretty good player and would be a huge upgrade over Pena and I’d be happy for him to be the Royals SS for the next few years, but we have to realize what his value is. I think he’s an 80-95ish OPS+ SS. That’s pretty good, but that range covers from below average to well above average. And he’s not cheap. It’s not an awful contract but it’s not a tremendous value. So, given the fact that his hitting has dropped off greatly the last two years and the fact that he’s owed:
2008 4.8M
2009 6.8M
2010 8.4M
2011 9.25M (club option or 500K buyout)

I’m not in love with the idea. I mean, if he were a free agent this offseason, would we be in favor of giving him a 2 year/$15.6M contract, plus an option year which he clearly won’t be worth? It’s not an awful idea. I’d like the upgrade. I just don’t know if he’s a good value.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 1:33 PM EDT   0 recs

payroll is always an issue

but would it be worth taking on the contract in order to acquire him for cheaper?

thinking ahead a bit, 2010/11 off seasons has lots of money coming off the book anyways right in time for the big escalator years of gordon/butler. it all depends on how much the team was wanting to spend on FAs this off season

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 2:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The short answer
but would it be worth taking on the contract in order to acquire him for cheaper?

Maybe, but I don’t think so. If the contract is such that I don’t think I’d sign him to it as a FA right now, then he’s not worth giving up talent for in addition to the money. One big problem is that the Royals, in my opinion, have both the money and the will to go out and get a top tier FA this offseason (something like $15-20M per season in a long-term contract). [btw, this takes into account both salaries going up next year due to arbitration and contract AND money coming off the books from Grudz, Berroa, etc.] But, their ability to do so would be hampered by taking on a contract like Hall’s which entails spending over $15M the next two years. I wouldn’t want to acquire Hall if that kept us from getting a top tier FA like Dunn or Burrell.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 2:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not convinced

Our chances of landing a Burrell or Dunn are all that great. We’re going to get outbid by other clubs, and even if we offer the top bid (as we did with Torii Hunter supposedly) we’re still not that attractive of a team to sign with.

Acquiring good, but overpaid players through trades may be a more effective way to improve the ballclub. Its a short term deal at this point, so even if he busts, you’re only on the hook through 2010. A two year $15 million deal for Bill Hall is really only slightly overpaying, considering that he is at least capable of putting together the kind of season he did in 2006, even though that may be an aberration.

I’d hate for us to pass up an opportunity to improve the team in the hopes that we land a free agent that we never get.

Again, it depends on what Milwaukee would want for Hall, but if he’s truly available, I hope Dayton is at least talking to them.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 2:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I guess I'd wait until after we've made a run at FA's

If Bill Hall is gone by then, so be it. I’d rather gamble on getting an elite free agent, than give up on the chance to get an elite FA so we can get an overpriced Bill Hall. I’d rather take the riskier road to a very good or great player than the safer road to mediocrity.

Again, it depends on what Milwaukee would want for Hall, but if he’s truly available, I hope Dayton is at least talking to them.

What would you give for him?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Carlos Rosa, Pimentel, and your Rosa jersey

But seriously, if the Royals take on a good portion of the salary, I think it wouldn’t take much to get him. The question, of course, is whether it’d be worth it to make Bill Hall such a financial priority.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 3, 2008 2:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hall's value/cost

If the Royals take on a good portion of the salary, then it probably wouldn’t take much to get him. But I don’t know that he’d be worth the money and the lost opportunity to bring in a great FA. Of course, if the Brewers eat a lot of his salary, then he’s a much better option, but would cost a lot in the way of talent.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 2:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

lets turn it around then

what if milwaukee eats almosts all the salary, we have to give up much more, but we have money to buy Dunn (lets just say) in the off season

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd rather give up money than prospects

We have expendable money. But our system is not so strong that our prospects are that expendable.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And you want that expendable money to go to Hall?

He would likely prevent us from getting any top tier FA. Hall isn’t worth that.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 3:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Again

I doubt $15 million over two years would prevent us from going after a top FA if that’s what we wanted to do. We have some expendable money.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

With the money coming off the books next year

And the fact that we are probably well under payroll this year because we didn’t land Kuroda, Hunter or Jones, means we can probably afford Hall AND a free agent.

What would I give up? Not sure. Depends on what Milwaukee wants.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think the payroll figures bear this out

Unless you think Glass is willing to go with a $85-90M payroll in 2009 and even higher than that in 2010 and beyond.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 3:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

See below

I have us at $55 mill for next year. I could be off with my numbers though.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I almost agree with you

Since Hall plays SS and the other possible FA’s do not, that makes it a worthwhile idea IMHO, unless a nearly equally valuable SS is also out there in FA for le$$.

I really hope the Royals don’t step up to overpay Dunn. That guy strikes out WAY too much, even with the 40 HR per year, which would not happen in KC anyway. With all of that power, the Reds have won 80 games once since 2001, just like the Royals did without a monster masher.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 3, 2008 6:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I like Hall's IsoP,

his batting average is running low right now, and I think he’s still good enough to play short, but NYRoyal brings up a valid concern with the salary.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 3, 2008 1:47 PM EDT   0 recs

Hall would be awesome

Except I’m scared of his Neifi-esque splits. It’s easy to hit in Milwaukee, and he’s largely been a product of that. So, I’m not entirely sold, although I really do like the guy.

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Jun 3, 2008 2:36 PM EDT   0 recs

That's why his OPS+ the last two years have been poor

Park and league normalize his numbers and he doesn’t look very good the last two years.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 2:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If we are going to trade for an SS

we could probably trade for one who will be cheaper (money-wise) than Hall. If we’re giving up the talent in prospects to get an SS, it might as well be an affordable one. While I don’t think signing Hall would affect the amount of money we could use to chase an FA like Dunn or Burrell, what I am worried about is that a trade for Hall would affect our ability to pick up smaller FA signings that aren’t blockbusters but still can pay dividends for the team (ie, Ron Mahay or David Riske) after we make the blockbuster signing of Dunn or Burrell.

That scenario, of course, assumes that we would be making such a signing. I wouldn’t rule it out.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 3, 2008 2:49 PM EDT   0 recs

Wow, how much money do you think Glass is willing to spend?
I don’t think signing Hall would affect the amount of money we could use to chase an FA like Dunn or Burrell

I think Glass is willing to increase payroll significantly, but I think adding Hall and either Dunn or Burrell would take the 2010 budget well up over $90M.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 2:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

which is probably too much for the royals right now

glass is willing to break even, but he doesnt want to lose money

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think I calculated

Our current committments, including arb increases, get us to just under $60 million. Hall is $6 million next year. I don’t know how much Dunn would get, but I’m guessing its under $20 million per year.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i think we are kidding ourselves

if we think the royals are willing to take a 80+ mil payroll into 09

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

I don’t think we’re going to make a serious run at Adam Dunn, with or without Bill Hall.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

but

i also doubt dunn gets 20 mil

15 tops, plus it would be back loaded, so maybe, but that contracts starts eating into gordon/butler/grienke FA years we have to buyout

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

$15 mil/year for Dunn would, if Retro's math is right, put us at $80-81 mil if we signed Hall

Would Glass go that high? I guess I’m the minority here in that I think he will, if only because of how much freedom he gave Moore last winter on the FA market.

Burrell will come cheaper than Dunn, for sure, but perhaps not that much cheaper if he keeps putting up the line he has so far this year.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 3, 2008 3:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yes he gave freedom

but we spent that on guillen 60-12 and dunn becomes very affordable

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Really?

It seems to make sense, even if Moore isn’t the most sabermetrically hip. Dunn is a premium OF/1B/DH bat and we have very little power coming from those areas. You think he’s not on the Royals radar, or that it’d be a bad decision?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd LOVE Dunn

Just don’t think we’re going to go after a player that will command that much money.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We got Guillen, didn't we?

I don’t think Dunn’s going to get that much more per year than Jose. I remain optimistic.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The fact we have Meche and Guillen

Makes it harder to get Dunn doesn’t it? I don’t think they want three huge contracts.

Hey, I hope I’m wrong, it would be awesome to have Dunn. I’m just not getting my hopes up (a) because I am pessimistic we’ll go after him and (b) I’m even more certain that even if we did go after him, we wouldn’t land him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I was refering to Guillen

as an example that the Royals are willing to shell out the dough to open the contention window. Meche is another example of this. As you’ve documented below, it’s not as if the Royals payroll will be all that high the way we stand heading into next season.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

$Dunn > $Guillen

How is a guy who consistently mashes 40 HR going to cost the same as a “known cancer in the clubhouse” who consistently hits 20 HR? Dunn will get at least $15M/yr.

I share your optimism that Glass may have loosened the purse strings and taken an extended break from stealing from the organization and its fans, but several teams will want Dunn and power is really overpriced anyway.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 3, 2008 9:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Glass was willing to give GMDM the green light

To go after Hunter, Kuroda, and A. Jones last offseason. I think he’s willing to spend the money. But I think you took that singular sentence out of context, because what my point was is that if we signed both Hall and one of Dunn/Burrell, we wouldn’t have money for any additional FA signings—that is, we’d be able to sign those two and pretty much nobody else.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 3, 2008 3:12 PM EDT   0 recs

Plus

Once we take Berroa off the books after this year, we’re really only out an additional $2.5ish million (I forget Berroa’s exact 2008 salary, I want to say it is in the $4.25 mil range) in 2009 if we add Hall. I don’t think that a relatively paltry sum like that is going to prevent us from being able to chase Dunn or Burrell.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 3, 2008 3:16 PM EDT   0 recs

Quick and dirty payroll outlook for 2009

My quick and dirty payroll estimates for 2009

Olivo $2,700 (player option, probably not likely to pick that up)
Buck $3,000 (arbitration estimate)
Gload $1,900
Shealy $400
Callaspo $400
Pena $400 (hopefully they’ll replace him)
Aviles $400
Gordon $500
Teahen $3,000 (arbitration estimate – candidate for non-tender)
DeJesus $3,600
Guillen $12,000
Gathright $500
Costa $400
Butler $500

Meche $11,000
Greinke $2,300 (arbitration estimate)
Bannister $1,400 (arbitration estimate)
Hochevar $400
5th Starter $400 (Kyle Davies or possible free agent here)

Mahay $4,000
Yabuta $3,000
Soria $1,000
Gobble $800 (arbitration estimate)
Ramirez $500
Nunez $500

=$55,000

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:25 PM EDT   0 recs

+rest of 40 man

which is really cheap cause we don’t have any big contracts we sent to AAA to die (berroa)

sounds about right on the whole tho

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

wait

i thought gload was off the books after 08, ill check

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I wish

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If we do sign an FA COFer (Dunn, Burrell, whoever)

then Teahen would almost certainly get traded or non-tendered, which would take $3 mil off your estimate, dropping it to $52 mil, which leaves us with some extra room.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 3, 2008 3:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Dunn could go to 1B

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 3:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not a huge deal either way

If Dunn were to play 1b, the Royals could go with an outfield of (from left to right) either Gload/DeJesus/Guillen or (preferably) DeJesus/Gathright/Guillen. Either way, acquiring Dunn makes Teahen expendable.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 3, 2008 4:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't forget Shane Costa

By 2009 he’ll have exploded a la Josh Hamilton.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 4:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

(So many jokes coming to mind, head about to Ross Gload on me...)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2008 5:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I Don't Get

The Gload/Gathright over Teahen thing.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jun 3, 2008 7:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed. Teahen is better than both.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 7:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If Dunn, then..

Gload becomes a AAAA player.
Gathright could start in CF if his 2008 performance suggests it’s a good idea (as 2007 stats do). Some would incessantly hate on him anyway, but not me.
Teahen becomes a quality super-sub, maybe the first truly worthy of playing every day at first, third, and all three OF spots (maybe at DH, too).

Generally, I don’t like the idea of an everyday super-sub because then the “A” lineup we all imagine when we look at the roster never plays together. Were it up to me, the #1-2 or #1-3 starter days wouldn’t have days off-only substitutions for injuries-and all days off would be given on #4-5 days. I tracked the 2004 lineups, and the Royals were 1-0 when Beltran/Sweeney/Randa/Gonzalez/Harvey/Berroa started together. That only happened ONCE that year.

by Stat Ninja on Jun 3, 2008 9:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Teahen has way more trade value than either Gload or Gator

Hence, why I was considering scenarios without Teahen.

But you are right—trade value aside, Teahen should be kept over Gload or Gator.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 3, 2008 9:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't we still owe Berroa?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 3, 2008 3:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What Zepplin said.

Berroa will come off the books for sure. And that is partly why I don’t see money as a huge obstacle with Hall + FA signing in the winter—with Berroa and Grudz presumably off the books (and Teahen as well if the FA is a COFer), we aren’t making a big investment at all even if we eat all of Hall’s salary.

by DarthYoshi on Jun 3, 2008 3:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

One caveat

Gathright and Nunez might be arb eligible, not sure about that, but the effect on payroll will be marginal.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 4:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And to look forward to 2010

Committed contracts:

Jose Guillen $12,000
Gil Meche $12,000
David DeJesus $4,700
Yas Yabuta $4,000 (club option)
Joakim Soria $3,000
Ross Gload $2,600 (club option) = $38,300

Arbitration eligible
John Buck ($3-4 million?)
Mark Teahen ($3-4 million?)
Zack Greinke ($4-6 million?)
Brian Bannister ($1-3 million?)
Jimmy Gobble ($1-2 million?) = $12-19 million

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 3:48 PM EDT   0 recs

Do the Royals have to wait until after the 2009 season to pick up Gload's option?

Why wait? He’s plus-plus grit in the bank.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jun 3, 2008 3:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think its an automatic option

If he reaches a certain level of grit in 2009, it automatically kicks in.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 4:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

does grit accumulate on the bench?

or do we have to play him for it to kick in?

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 4:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Actually

It compounds like interest

Marriage is a great institution, for those that like being in institutions.

by fats on Jun 3, 2008 9:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What about

German + Pitching Prospect and the Brewers don’t have to eat any of Hall’s salary. You think that would be something they would think about?

Sign Alex Gordon to a life time contract!!!

by eboston on Jun 3, 2008 4:19 PM EDT   0 recs

What use would they have for German?

I think the rest of that makes sense.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 3, 2008 4:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I mean,

in the sense that they’d do that. I’m not sure it makes sense to pay all of Hall’s salary.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jun 3, 2008 4:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if it were a really good pitching prospect

also, i don’t know the brewers needs that well, what would german do for them?

by ZeppelinDZ on Jun 3, 2008 4:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think they need a bullpen arm

But I don’t want to part with Ramirez or Nunez. Yabuta won’t interest them. I can’t see DM trading Mahay so soon after signing him. Gobble doesn’t have a ton of value. Peralta has been pretty crappy this year.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jun 3, 2008 4:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hall is really not a shortstop anymore

He last played SS two years ago, when he was one of the worst defenders at the position (Hanley Ramirez bad). He is now two years older, and at an age when borderline guys tend to get moved off SS, not back on it. His defense has been below average at 3B so far this year.

by Gopherballs on Jun 3, 2008 4:31 PM EDT   0 recs

That doesn't sound good

An 80-95 OPS+ with very bad defense doesn’t sound good at all.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jun 3, 2008 4:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs