Your Wednesday Morning Bullet Points
I had one of those "where is my car?" moments this morning in the parking lot of Target. I was visiting this particular quality department store because part of me keeps stubbornly insisting on the rest of me engagin in activities that require running. As a result, I needed to replenish my sock supply. Hanes 6-pack with extra padding in the heel and toe. Yeah, I knew you wanted to know that. Anyways, it started to rain, and I had no idea where the van was parked. I can name off the top of my head the starting line-ups for all of the major league baseballs teams, but that particular bit of information, curiously, did me little good. Anyway, I finally found my way through the showers to sanctuary in the form of a Ford Freestar. It took way too long. In other words, I think I know exactly how Zack Greinke felt in yesterday's game.
Anyway, we have a lot coming up in the next couple weeks--as Will touched on in the fanshot--but there were a couple things I wanted to bring up today:
* Chris Lubanski, potentially useful MLB platoon player? It doesn't sound like much for Chris to aspire to, but recently someone brought up in a comment Lubanski's splits. Lubanski, after an awful start, is now up to .268/.337/.497. Yes, that's still not very impressive for a corner outfielder in the PCL, but Lubanski could still improve overall. While we're not talking about a potential star, of course, Lubanski is more interesting to me than stiffs like Costa Now!, Maier, and the Amazing Aviles, as Chris has raked left-handed pitching to the tune of .308/.359/.598 and has actually retained some prospect status as he's moved up through the system. He could stand to work the count more, but that line is pretty nice even for a hitter's league. If Lubanski can keep up the good work, I don't see any reason not to call him up late in the year to see how he can do as a DH/OF versus righties. He will very probably never live up to his draft status, but let's not let that obscure that he could be useful. I mean, could he be that much worse than the undead Ross Gload? Especially if Lubanski keeps making progress this summer?
* By the way, Gloadie, I don't blame you for being you, but you can't blame me for hating it. Are you one of the vampires in the video? (And yes, this is my attempt to trump Will's Nada Surf post for "lamest band referenced.')
* We need to get an official RR-sanctioned nickname for Ramon Ramirez, because it should be pretty apparent to us now that the guy is pretty neat to have on this pitching staff. By WXRL Ramirez edges out Ron Mahay for the spot of best non-Soria reliever on the team. In 25 innings, Super Captain Laser Hero (that's my nomination for his nickname, I went to the Kenny Mayne school of overstatement) has struck out 30, amassing a 3:1 K:BB ratio. During that span, he's given up exactly 0 dingers. That's a 10.66 K/9 and a sparkling 0.0 HR/9, for those of you scoring at home...or sitting alone in your underwear in your mother's basement. In other words, that's "closer material" (I won't get in the fact that today's bullpen usage is so hideously backward compared to some other advances FOs and managers have made) stuff that Ramirez is throwing. Could he be the best reliever on a good team? Looking at his cube page it's clear Ramirez has always had good K-rates and that his performance in 2008 isn't necessarily an outlier when taken in the context of his very good 2006. In 2007, he was injured a lot, and mad props to Dayton Moore for this pick-up. Anyway, we won't see Ramirez as a closer candidate until Soria is moved to the rotation, so it's academic for now. Still, I'm on record as saying Ramirez or Nunez could handle the job if Joakim graduates to starter status.
* Gil Meche appears to have recovered from his workload hangover after posting a 3.69 ERA in May with good peripherals to back it up. It's interesting to note, however, that despite Meche dragging to start the year after last seaon's career-high innings and pitches total, Trey Hillman hasn't deigned to give Meche a break. Now, there are some pitchers who can weather high "PAP" totals, but I'll once again point out that I don't think Meche is one of them. From those of you unfamilar to the system, Category 1s are 100 pitches are less, Cat2s are debatable if they're harmful depending on the pitcher, and Cat3s and Cat4s are...scary when you've invested in a pitcher for three more years after 2008. Great to see that Daisuke Matsuzaka is all the way down to 23rd on this list. Thank you, Tito.
Elsewhere in the beisbol world:
* Will Carroll reports that John Smoltz is out "for the year ."
* John Brattain of The Hardball Times has some tough love for Blue Jays "star" Alex Rios.
* Also from THT, Frank Thomas's copy of the Oakland Athletics schedule has been leaked. Does Mike Sweeney have a similar list? Nah, I say, he's too nice and boring.
* Start your ESPN insider free trial right now if you want to view Keith Law's draft article. Unlike a lot of the ESPN hacks, Law's actually pretty good at what he does. Unlike a lot of the ESPN hacks, Law's a Scouts Inc. guy. Go figure.
* Rob Neyer seems to think Ozzie Guillen's days are numbered. I am inclined to disagree. What a surprise.
That's all I've got for now. What say ye?
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We need a poll...
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Jun 4, 2008 4:21 PM EDT
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Still a Lubanski fan
He’s still pretty young, as opposed to Costa Now! or Super Aviles.
Word is Smoltzie may retire. Sure-fire HOFer, right?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jun 4, 2008 12:13 PM EDT 0 recs
I think so
I don’t know if he’ll get in on the first ballot, but Smoltz is a HOFer.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Jun 4, 2008 4:21 PM EDT
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I liked someone's idea of "Ram-Rod"
Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson
by buddyball on Jun 4, 2008 12:44 PM EDT 0 recs
yay
i believe the full title was Car Ramrod, though, but hey, whatever sticks
This space intentionally left blank.
by marbotty on
Jun 4, 2008 2:46 PM EDT
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As I said,
we’ll have to put up a poll with the nominees.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Jun 4, 2008 4:22 PM EDT
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Caveat on Lubanski
NHZ is right that Lubanski should not be lumped in with Costa and Aviles due to his age, but his underlying numbers suggest that he has not performed as well as his overall line or his line against RHP this year.
His 3:1 K:BB rate is still pretty unbalanced - his strikeout rate is high (27.3% K%), while his walk rate is merely okay (9.3% BB%). Lubanski is only 23, and like power, patience tends to develop as a player gets older, so the walk rate is not overly worrisome at this point. The lack of contact, however, is a concern, as 27% K rate in AAA would likely exceed 30% in the majors, which makes it tough to succeed for guys like Lubanski who are unlikely to hit for a high average or walk a lot. And the strikeouts are not limited to facing RHP - against LHP, his K rate is still around 25%. Age is on his side for now, but he will need to control the strike zone better before he is ready to succeed in the majors.
The other concern is that his BA and OBP are driven largely by an unsustainable BABIP. His BABIP is .343, yet his line drive rate is well below average (14% LD%). With such a low LD%, his expected BABIP should be around .260. That kind of luck will not continue. Both his BABIP and his LD% should regress, but he needs to make better contact and get his LD% rate up around 20%. His defense is not very good, so his bat will need to carry him.
The good news, besides his age, is that his power is fine even when adjusted for the PCL (229 ISOP) and that by exposing him to the Rule 5 draft last offseason, Lubanski is still not on the 40-man roster and thus retains three options. Lubanski still has a lot of work to do, and must continue to show improvement to justify a 40-man roster spot (a team is not going to use a 40-man roster spot on a player who does not project as a useful major leaguer), but he has plenty of time to put things together.
by Gopherballs on Jun 4, 2008 12:49 PM EDT 1 recs
Agreed, Lubanski still has some work to do
I wouldn’t call him up in September unless he performs better from June through August. And the fact that he’s not on the 40-man roster might make it difficult to call him up. I don’t think Lubanski is particularly close to being major league ready.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Jun 4, 2008 1:58 PM EDT
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Nice analysis.
I did see that his BABIP is running high, one of the reasons I noted it’s good to take the numbers with a grain of salt. My hope for Lubanski is that he’ll start to improve his LD% as the season goes on, making real progress as a hitter. As you and NYRoyal suggest, I agree that Lubanski shouldn’t be called up until later this year. Still, I am encouraged that he’s at least hitting the normals.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Jun 4, 2008 4:18 PM EDT
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Great tags by the way
but you put in “who wants to have mike aviles baby” while not being able to fit in “scissoring” or “anal goe” or that other one I can’t remember at the moment?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Jun 4, 2008 1:43 PM EDT 0 recs
And how does "you" fit in
That’s just a groin-grabbingly stupid omission.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Jun 4, 2008 1:44 PM EDT
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The beauty of the "you"
tag is that it fits in with practically anything.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Jun 4, 2008 4:19 PM EDT
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Question on the age thing
I don’t really understand the 23 year old vs. 27 year old argument. The average MLB career is what? 3 years or less I’m guessing. Anyways if a 27 year old player is playing better than the 23 year old than he should get the call up. Just because he only has 3 or 4 good years left instead of the 23 year olds 6 or 7 POSSIBLE years left.
The amount of years of potential service time should not out weigh the amount of productive service time
If the player could give 3 or more years of productive service age shouldn’t be as big of issue. Especially when we are talking about people all in their 20’s.
I wonder if the royals would be better by eventually filling their roster with older players who were dominating their league (27 or 28 year old batting .330), or younger players who are doing above average in their league (22 year old batting .290 in AA but high draft pick) getting the eventual big league playing time.
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
by tcon125 on Jun 4, 2008 1:50 PM EDT 0 recs
Just to guess on age
it’s relevant to minor league performance evaluation because of
1) Age relative to league and
2) Older players have often been through the league a number of times
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Jun 4, 2008 1:56 PM EDT
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And
23 year old are more likely to improve than 27 year olds who are typically at or very close to their peak.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Jun 4, 2008 2:00 PM EDT
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Yes
If the younger player is succeeding at a level and at an age at which the older player did not, it also likely means that the younger player has better underlying skills than the older player to begin with.
by Gopherballs on
Jun 4, 2008 2:33 PM EDT
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People alrady have some good points on this,
but people who come into the league at 27 or 28 tend to not last very long.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Jun 4, 2008 4:20 PM EDT
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I wonder how Moore feels about Gload
Clearly Moore liked Gload going into the offseason. He signed him to a two-year deal. But now Gload is hitting much worse than he ever has in the majors. Does Moore think this is an aberration and he’ll come around and be the player they thought he’d be for 2008 and 2009? Does Moore think that this may well be a real decline, given Gload’s age?
Many people have called for Gload to be traded. That would be great, but no team is going to trade for Gload this year. A contender is only going to make a deadline trade for a player they think is going to help them for a stretch run. A guy having a very off year doesn’t fit that profile. But he might be tradeable for very little in the offseason.
The real question is does Moore want to get rid of this guy yet? It kind of looks to me like Gload is turning into a player whose only real positive is great 1B defense. That kind of player isn’t worthy of a roster spot on any team in any situation. If I were Moore, I’d look for a trade this season, but as I said, I probably wouldn’t find one. So, I’d try to trade him in the offseason and be willing to eat some of his $1.9M salary. If that didn’t work, I’d expose him to waivers in the hopes that someone is willing to take his contract off of our hands. Hell, Meintkeweicz got signed by the Yankees after he left the Royals.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jun 4, 2008 2:07 PM EDT 0 recs
I've said it before
Miguel Cairo is getting 1B starts in Seattle.
Don’t get me wrong, Bavasi is a shrewd guy. The Royals will only get Jeff Clement, and they’ probably have to eat 25% of Gload’s salary, but it might turn out OK…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Jun 4, 2008 2:10 PM EDT
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That is a hard bargain to swallow
But my daddy always said “don’t mess with a Bavasi!”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Jun 4, 2008 2:20 PM EDT
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I doubt too
that there is a trade market for gload… there’s barely a trade market now for anyone short of a major star and or a semi-decent pitcher
even a fairly useful player like Grudz will probably not be able to attract much
i do think there is a waiver market for Gload, but would help if he was hitting more
in a way, gload’s struggles are a good thing… i’d rather him struggle now and work his way out of 2009 playing time than continuing to earn dayton’s love
by royalsreview on
Jun 4, 2008 3:18 PM EDT
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True
And I especially don’t want to see that 2010 option picked up!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Jun 4, 2008 3:38 PM EDT
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Club option
I think for 2.2M
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Jun 4, 2008 4:32 PM EDT
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I made the same lame joke in another thread
But its an automatic option that kicks in when he reaches a certain level of grit.’
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Jun 4, 2008 4:39 PM EDT
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he's there already
Success is counted sweetest by those who ne'er succeed. - Emily Dickinson
by buddyball on
Jun 4, 2008 4:56 PM EDT
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And you were coattailing on my lame joke in the first place! Aaarrggghhhh!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Jun 4, 2008 9:21 PM EDT
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Agreed
There is always a trade market in the summer for useful bench players like Gload. But they have to be performing at at least a decent level. Last summer the White Sox traded utility schlub Rob Mackowiak to the Padres for peanuts. He’s no better as a utility guy than Gload, but he did have a .772 OPS when he was traded.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Jun 4, 2008 3:44 PM EDT
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Yeah,
Gload would have to show some semblance of still having an ML bat for us to flip him, I think.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Jun 4, 2008 4:23 PM EDT
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Kenny Williams LOVES grinders
Maybe he’ll take Gload in the offseason in a trade or on waivers.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Jun 4, 2008 4:24 PM EDT
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Well, Ozzie does want him to do SOMETHING
Maybe KW will think doing something stupid is better than doing nothing at all and offer us Josh Fields for Ross Gload.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Jun 4, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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And Ozzie likes old grinders too
...in part because he was one.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Jun 4, 2008 4:29 PM EDT
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Not to mention Kenny, since they've already had Gload once
So getting him a second time is that much more attractive.
Did he really trade for Roberto Alomar and Carl Everett two years in a row, or was that just some wonderful and hilarious dream I had?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Jun 4, 2008 9:23 PM EDT
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I love grinders too,
but only the cheesesteak kind.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Jun 4, 2008 4:44 PM EDT
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