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I'm not trying to kill the buzz, just looking an interesting trend that's developed since Aviles has been up in the majors. Indeed, it's in line with Aviles's career minor league stats. I won't spoil the surprise for you, except to say that Aviles has an OBP 173 points higher against people who throw with their wrong hand this year.

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At least his RHP OPS is still .751

which isn’t bad for SS/2B and 2 of his 3 HRs are off RHP (tiny sample notwithstanding…)

by jsolo on Jul 1, 2008 4:41 PM EDT reply actions  

But everyone expects his numbers to come down from their current lofty heights

Even the most ardent Aviles supporters expect this. If they do come down and his OPS against RHP’s gets down to something like .700, then that probably won’t be good enough considering his subpar SS defense.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ideally

He can maintain or improve against RHP and if his numbers regulate at all, it will happen against LHP. The league will make adjustments against him, but he can adjust as well. Then we can see how good of a hitter he truly is.

BTW – I’ve been trying to get Neyer to weigh in on Aviles in one of his chats, but he has yet to mention him there or in a blog. Aviles has gotten nearly 100 ABs – I’d like to see the Neyer opinion on the subject.

by jsolo on Jul 1, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope is regression is only against LHP, but I fear that is unlikely

But I have no idea how much he’ll regress. Hopefully not much.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2008 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, not at all

I agree it’s fine. Just something to watch.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

only talking about 25 PA against lefties

tough to draw too many conclusions from that…but yes, he will likely be prone to some bad splits looking at his history

by ZeppelinDZ on Jul 1, 2008 4:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Not really buying into anythiing as small as 25 PAs

Too small. Yes he has pretty drastic splits in the minors this year too, but a .951 OPS against righties is pretty darn good too, its not like they’re killing him.

What Aviles is doing is fairly outside the norm. I’m not sure any of us can predict what he’s going to do with much certainty. He’s an outlier.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 1, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply actions  

We hope he's an outlier

You did the research; you know how rare it would be for him to become a good hitting regular MLB player given his profile.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2008 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is it okay if I predict

that he hits lefties a lot better than righties? Because this trend isn’t really new for him.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 9:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

...or for baseball players in general

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 2, 2008 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

True,

but when Aviles was in the minors the only skills he really had that indicated he might be a useful part of a ML roster were playing multiple positions with okay-ish defensively and hitting lefties. Again, I can’t find his minor league splits, which really annoys me.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

For comparison

here are his splits from Omaha before the promotion:

vs. LH: 346/404/750
vs. RH: 333/359/593

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 1, 2008 6:06 PM EDT reply actions  

I wonder what they were in prior seasons?

Has he always had a huge platoon differential?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 1, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

No idea

I wish minorleaguesplits.com had archives.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 1, 2008 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't call it huge,

but it was pronounced. BP referred to him as a lefty-masher in this year’s annual. I just wish I could remember where I was able to pull up his career splits, because I can’t find them now.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 9:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Aviles And Virtually

Every other RH batter cannot hit a slider that breaks low and away. If he can learn to recognize and lay off the pitch, he’ll be fine against RHP. He’s starting to dive out and spoil some of them, but the odds of doing something productive with that pitch are miniscule, and that will eventually leave him vulnerable on the inside corner. It’s best if he can lay off it for the most part.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 1, 2008 6:30 PM EDT reply actions  

I haven't looked at the stats

but they gotta be better than Gordon’s against lefties. Hopefully both improve.

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jul 1, 2008 7:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Unfortunately for us

he was built as a cornerstone for the franchise.

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jul 2, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Unfortuately for us

you keep saying this as if you get paid to remind us.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Am I understanding you right?

Are you saying that it is unfortunate that Gordon was supposed to be a cornerstone of the franchise? And that it is unfortunate because he happens to be having trouble hitting lefties this year? It’s so unfortunate to have a player like Gordon. Yeah, just awful.

I think it is time for you to start championing Matranga or Dawkins in Omaha. They can play third base.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 2, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

Can we bring Maier up to

replace DDJ yet?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

And it's time to see what Ty Lumsden can do in the majors

Hochevar has really disappointed. He was the #1 overall draft pick!!!!! Another failed cornerstone.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 2, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I keep stubbing my toes on these

cornerstones! Get rid of them RRRRRARRRRRRRRRRRFGH!!!

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's time to tear down the edifice, take a sledgehammer to the cornerstones and rebuild with the Omaha all-stars

Aviles will lead, closely followed by Matranga, Buchanan, Dawkins, Costa, Lumsden, Wright and Fulchino. Just give them a chance! It worked for Aviles. And the KC Star stat guy said that the minor leagues are full of gems. All of the stars are aligning. This is the Royals chance to rebuild the right way!

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 2, 2008 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Power to the people!

Except…what’s that baseball saying about listening to the fans?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

That saying

“If you listen to the fans then you’ll finally make all the right moves that you haven’t been making for years.”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 2, 2008 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ah, good.

I was having a mental block.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yay!

Burning strawmen is fun!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

It's called hyperbole to make a point

And it is fun.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 2, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Heh,

“Gordon isn’t really a cornerstone” isn’t a clear argument, nor is it a topic I feel like debating…again.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

You suck.

How can you not demand that Mitch Maier be given his fair opportunity? Is he not deserving? Why do you hate Mitch? Indeed, why do you hate AMERICA?!?

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 2, 2008 3:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Mitch is America?

Sorry, I forgot.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually

Maier > Gathright

So yea.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 3, 2008 4:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good point

though Gathright has one above average tool…his speed…that keeps him on the roster.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 3, 2008 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

How can you bash on

a .722 OPS against Righties in his first trip thru against many of these pitchers. When one of the major keys to rebuilding this team is going backwards against Lefties. Aviles is hitting in a part of the order that he shouldn’t be and has exceeded expectations. AS OPPOSED to Alex who is backsliding against Lefties.

I’m just wondering why the FanShot is posted about Aviles slide and Not Alex’s. Why does he get such a free pass to you guys and the media. He didn’t get the Butler treatment last year and he should’ve been pinch hit for last night.
Splits vs Lefties
‘07 .217 .266 .420
‘08 so far .196 .288 .228
Oh that’s right because he was a PROSPECT. You can’t spell performance without prospect according to you guys.

It’s time to tear down the edifice, take a sledgehammer to the cornerstones and rebuild with the Omaha all-stars

I expect KC’s 3 spot/#2 overall pick to be a hell of alot more important than a minor league call up that is getting starts at SS because the other two options are a drunk and one that plays like he’s drunk. I forgot you guys are the poster boys for the perfect, nonnegative fans. God praise you. Alex isn’t adjusting and as a fan I am growing tired of it. I can almost predict his plate appearances against lefties anymore.
High inside fastball – swings thru it strike one
Breaking ball away – Fouled off or swinging strike
Another High Fastball – STRIKE 3

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jul 2, 2008 4:32 PM EDT reply actions  

You need to get a hold of yourself.

Nobody’s bashing on Aviles. Your reaction is akin to accusing someone of calling you a midget simply because they point out that you’re not tall.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 2, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

You just don't get it

No one is “bashing on” Aviles. Full-time players face RHP about 3/4 of the time, so if you’re hitting badly against RHP, that’s a significant issue, no?

I’m just wondering why the FanShot is posted about Aviles slide and Not Alex’s. Why does he get such a free pass to you guys and the media

Are you kidding me? Man, you’re really off the deep end. Do you really think we should compare Gordon and Aviles on an equal footing? Should we ignore Gordon’s talent and upside? Should we ignore the scouts and analysts who predicted he would be a star? Should we ignore that his platoon splits weren’t this extreme last year (full season) and that they’ve only been extreme this year (half season)? Aviles is a much more questionable player than Gordon. He’s much less likely to be a good player than Gordon. There’s much more reason for concern when a key peripheral for Aviles is going negative. And do you understand that hitting poorly against RHP’s is a much bigger deal than hitting poorly against LHP’s?
I expect KC’s 3 spot/#2 overall pick to be a hell of alot more important than a minor league call up that is getting starts at SS because the other two options are a drunk and one that plays like he’s drunk. I forgot you guys are the poster boys for the perfect, nonnegative fans

If there were any question if this was serious analysis or emotional, gutteral utterance, there’s no question now.
Alex isn’t adjusting and as a fan I am growing tired of it.

Well, as long as you’ve gotten tired of it, then I guess we can stop hoping that Gordon will improve. I don’t care if he’s only had 1 1/2 MLB seasons and is very young. If you’re tired of it, then he’s done developing. But the older player who is much worse of a prospect because he has less talent, who MLB teams now have a scouting report on, he’s just going to get better and better. I got it now.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 2, 2008 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good grief

I wasn’t bashing on him, simply stating facts.

I’m just wondering why the FanShot is posted about Aviles slide and Not Alex’s. Why does he get such a free pass to you guys and the media. He didn’t get the Butler treatment last year and he should’ve been pinch hit for last night.

You may recall, kcscoliny, that I wrote a lengthy post about Gordon’s struggles versus lefties. If you don’t remember that, then there’s not much I can do about it. I promise it happened.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think this post is jumping the shark

This player that the fans expected little to none of is still in his first trip thru pitchers and his ability to adjust to the way pitchers pitching to him really hasn’t even taken place yet. While there is no FanShot/Post about the more important player on KC’s team inability to adjust in his second full season.

Shots like these

Just give them a chance! It worked for Aviles

are the overreaction, no one on this site has clammored for any other call ups with the exception of Costa yet a few fans asking to replace TPJ with Aviles is everyones inability to recognize good talent. That is Growing Old but I need to get ahold of myself.

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jul 2, 2008 4:56 PM EDT reply actions  

Yes, you do need to get a hold of yourself

Didn’t you just make this post about Aviles and Gordon in this thread a few comments up? Isn’t the expectation (by everyone) of Avile’s numbers regressing and whether that is happening a post-worthy issue? Isn’t a poor platoon split against RHP’s more important than one against LHP’s? Aren’t pitchers adjusting to Aviles just as much as he is adjusting to them? I think advanced scouts and players looking at video of his AB’s have found his weaknesses now (which they didn’t know about before) and they are exploiting them.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 2, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

This is my point
Do you really think we should compare Gordon and Aviles on an equal footing

He should be the one with the Free pass, his expectations are far less and he has less talent. I wasn’t comparing Alex’s talent to Aviles.

And do you understand that hitting poorly against RHP’s is a much bigger deal than hitting poorly against LHP’s?

Yes but I do understand that KC’s 3 hole hitter hitting good in all situations is more important than a TakeAChance Guy hitting against RHP’s. Only if someone was expecting Aviles to be the everyday 2b or SS of the future would that be as close to as important.

I guess we can stop hoping that Gordon will improve

Why is patience only a virtue when it is You that is using it. I wouldn’t want anyone to be patient when Billy goes in a slump later in the year again, ONLY Alex. God knows Aviles can’t go a week without continually proving his worth. They have adjusted send him down and get Callaspo back in the lineup.

If Everone expects Aviles numbers to regress then Why would that be a post-worthy issue that should be the norm. Alex’s platoon splits are far more important and are much more post-worthy than a player that had little expectation. Can you tell me why Aviles would adjust his approach so quickly he was mashing righties at first. Now after a week or two of little success is when he should adjust.

I think advanced scouts and players looking at video of his AB’s have found his weaknesses now

Every minor league game I’ve ever been to there is at least 5 scouts in the seats charting every pitch so you can’t tell me there was absolutely no book on him. The low away slider to a righty is tough pitch for generally every hitter to hit. Maybe he is just in a slump as opposed to adjustments taking full effect yet.

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jul 2, 2008 5:49 PM EDT reply actions  

When is it right/wrong to you to be positive or negative

It’s not like you don’t bash on fans in here all the time about being too negative. So tell me the ground rules that you’ve layed so I can understand them.

I was asking for the same treatment for him as you supposedly give alot of these other players.  You spent most of NHZ's post about Alex defending him against over negative fans.

There are no stats to support this claim other than Most Righties hit better against Lefties than the they do Righties. Maybe the guy is overplayed needs rest and is tired of the mental drain. He has played in 77 games.

I haven’t looked at the stats but they gotta be better than Gordon’s against lefties. Hopefully both improve.

Unfortunately for us he was built as a cornerstone for the franchise.

My first quote states hopefully both improve and my second quote is my comment how GORDON is more important than Aviles.

Am I understanding you right? Are you saying that it is unfortunate that Gordon was supposed to be a cornerstone of the franchise? And that it is unfortunate because he happens to be having trouble hitting lefties this year? It’s so unfortunate to have a player like Gordon. Yeah, just awful.

I think it is time for you to start championing Matranga or Dawkins in Omaha. They can play third base.

For one I’ve only argued extensively on calling up ONE Omaha Royal all year. I’m not the one on here clammoring for Shane Costa, Ryan Shealy or any of the other of the hOmetown 9 I get to watch out there so quit tossin that out there. But I guess wanting Aviles in TPJ’s place was a bad idea considering he’s 3rd in ML in RC, 7th in OPS, 1st in RBI’s among SS since being put in the everyday lineup on June 6th.

As far as the cornerstone comment it was stated to the fact that Gordon ability to hit lefties is FAR more important than Aviles ability to hit righties because if Alex remains a low .200 hitter against lefties then KC chances of being competitive the next couple years drops significantly. He has regressed it would be one thing if he looked to be getting out of that slump against lefties but he looks to be digging in further. He is the hitter that is more important if managers feel they can bring in a LOOGY to get out our #3 hitter and get away with it then KC will struggle to win games.

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jul 3, 2008 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

Ok, I'll tell you
It’s not like you don’t bash on fans in here all the time about being too negative. So tell me the ground rules that you’ve layed so I can understand them.

I think we should do our best to be realistic. That would include some positivity and some negativity because some elements of the Royals reality are positive and some are negative. I’m not looking to bash Aviles. If he maintains good hitting, that would be a wonderful thing for the Royals. There are no ground rules, but a good guideline would be to try to be honest with yourself and everyone else about Royals prospects and players. I’m not implying that you aren’t being honest. I just think that it is easy for a fan to convince himself that a longshot player like Aviles is the real deal, whether he is or not.
There are no stats to support this claim other than Most Righties hit better against Lefties than the they do Righties.

I don’t know what claim you’re talking about. I think some of what you wrote was eaten in a formatting glitch.
My first quote states hopefully both improve and my second quote is my comment how GORDON is more important than Aviles.

I find it odd that a fanshot which points to a problem Aviles is having, you deflect to Gordon. Apparently you think it is inappropriate to criticize Aviles unless every other player is equally criticized. Haven’t we had multiple Gordon-analysis threads within the last week? Can’t we also look at Aviles? This kind of deflection and “why does Gordon get a pass” rhetoric makes me think you just don’t want anyone to say anything critical about Aviles. You seem to react very strongly against any suggestion that his game has some flaws.
As far as the cornerstone comment it was stated to the fact that Gordon ability to hit lefties is FAR more important than Aviles ability to hit righties because if Alex remains a low .200 hitter against lefties then KC chances of being competitive the next couple years drops significantly. He has regressed it would be one thing if he looked to be getting out of that slump against lefties but he looks to be digging in further. He is the hitter that is more important if managers feel they can bring in a LOOGY to get out our #3 hitter and get away with it then KC will struggle to win games.

Again, Gordon is irrelevant to an analysis of Aviles. We can talk about Aviles’s issues without going deeply into the problems/flaws of every other Royals player, can’t we? Every time we analyze Aviles, must we also talk about the problems that Gordon, Butler, Greinke and Bannister have? Second, you are overreacting to Gordon’s half-season of regression. Just have some patience for once. And before you overreact and say that I’m not being patient with Aviles, I am. He should have at least the remainder of the season to see what he can do. The recent trend isn’t good and his career profile isn’t one that usually leads to MLB success, but I hope he bucks the trend. The die is not cast on Aviles. Nor is it for Gordon.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 3, 2008 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Quoted for emphasis.
And before you overreact and say that I’m not being patient with Aviles, I am. He should have at least the remainder of the season to see what he can do.

I fully agree, and I am pretty sure NHZ agrees with this as well. The worst-case scenario is that we figure out Aviles isn’t going to work for next year. The best-case is that this is, gasp, a slump and he’ll level out.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 3, 2008 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

And we shouldn't hesitate to point out when stats drop or that he has a big platoon split

The existence of these facts does not mean that he’s proven himself to be awful, a failure, or worse than TPJ. They are just facts that we all should realize (if one cares about achieving a greater understanding of Royals players, which I think most of us do).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 3, 2008 3:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Hopefully he's a regular for the remainder of the year

In evaluating him for next year, I would weigh his post-ASB stats most heavily. By that point, every team would have a good scouting report on him and know how best to pitch to him. And, by that point he would have gotten used to facing major league pitchers and made whatever adjustments to the way he’s being pitched to that he can.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 3, 2008 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions  

I do agree

I’m not sure why suddenly it’s not okay to make a fanshot on Aviles…because Gordon is struggling? Weird.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 3, 2008 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

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