RRMLP: A quick look at the high minors.

by James Quinn on Jul 12, 2008 3:00 PM EDT

I took a quick look at the stat sheets from the Royal’s top three minor league teams today and thought I’d pass along a few of my thoughts. (At this point I picture all of the Royals Review faithful clapping their hands excitedly and wispering "yipee!")

Pitching: Omaha has a bad pitching staff this year. If the Royals needed help I think Brad Salmon is the only arm at Omaha right now that might be counted upon to deliver average performance at the MLB level. Carlos Rosa (41.2 Innings, 44 hits, 8/35 BB/K) Brandon Duckworth (95.1 Innings, 92 hits, 35/73 BB/K) and Neal Musser (49.1 Innings, 43 hits, 27/60 BB/K) would probably be above replacement level. The rest of the staff is performing poorly. Good lord, Tyler Lumsden sucks like Kenny G. Matt Wright is disappointing in what might be his last real shot at a career in baseball. Roman Colon needs more development time apparently.

Things are not much brighter at Northwest Arkansas pitching wise, which is a surprise as that roster is stacked with prospect tagged talent. Blake Johnson, Rowdy Hardy, Julio Pimental and Blake Wood are all struggling. I give a thumbs up to Daniel Cortes (64.1 Innings, 56 hits, 30/67 BB/K), Jarod Plummer (43 Innings, 45 hits, 11/43 BB/K). Kinda intriguing are Chris Hayes (40.2 Innings, 31 hits, 9/22 BB/K) and Chris Nicoll (15 Innings, 11 hits, 2/16 BB/K). But overall the Natural’s pitching staff has not set the world on fire like I had hoped they would.

Lots of good stuff going on at Wilmington. Evertt Teaford, Matthew Kniginyzky, Greg Holland, Henry Barrera and Ben Swaggerty are striking out everyone. The stat sheet for these guys all look great. Aaron Hartsock is also worth noting. Two years ago the Royals traded Jeff Keppinger to the Reds. This was considered a bad move at the time here at RR, and history has once more proven that the RR consensus opinion is always correct. In return for Keppinger the Royals picked up a guy with a fascinating name. Russell Haltiwanger. Cool name, but it turns out he sucks. (34.1 Innings, 38 hits, 22/21 BB/K.) Still stuck in high A and not looking good.

Infield: At Omaha Ryan Shealy is putting together a fine year. .280/.361/.486. Does hope remain? Maybe a glimmer. Mike Stodolka and Matt Tupman are having very disappointing years. David Matranga (3B) is new to me and looking good. (.265/.347/.453) Of course, being a third baseman in the Royals system does not bode well for him. In Arkansas Kila Kaaihue has set the world on fire (.309/.454/.636). Kaaihue has a 62/35 BB/K ratio in 236 at bats. I guess he moves ahead of Shealy and Stodolka if he maintains numbers anywhere near these in the second half of the season. Marc Maddox (2B) is kinda intriguing. (.280/.370/.362) and 14/22 in SBs. Mario Lisson is having a horrible year, which is disappointing. I guess those of us who didn’t already do this can now go about forgetting about his existence. Down at Wilmington another second baseman is looking good. Kurt Mertins (.301/.374/.433) with 16/20 SBs. Mertins only has 11 errors, but I have no idea of how good he is in the field beyond that. Josh Johnson, a third baseman, has a .420 OBP, which rises eyebrows. Jeff Bianchi might be looking for an apartment to share with Lisson in the village of washed out second base prospects (.231/.270/.410).

Outfield: The outfielders in the KC high minors look more promising than do the infielders. At Omaha Mitch Maier (.315/.363/.460) and Shane Costa (.295/.354/.469) look ready to come up and play at KC if needed. Chris Lubanski can be forgotten now (.238/.305/.410). I guess getting left off the 40 man roster did nothing to change his level of performance. At Arkansas a couple of guys are stealing bases, but they all have kinda crappy OBP’s so I can’t get too excited about them. Ovandy Suero (33 SBs, .317 OBP) and Jose Duarte (21 SBs, .317 OBP). Brian McFall is showing some power (.240/.351/.471) , which is in short supply in the Royal’s organization.

The Wilmington outfield is full of speedsters who, for the most part, appear to lack complementary skills. Derrick Robinson (42/50 SBs, .296 OBP, .606 OPS) and Jarrod Dyson (28/36 SBs, .314 OBP, .566 OPS). Joseph Dickerson is more promising at this point (24/38 SBs, .299/.380/.447).

Summing up, the Royals do not have a lot of pitching help major league ready, but they do have plenty of live arms at Wilmington. The Northwest Arkansas pitching class of 2008 has been a letdown, but none of the golden prospects have collapsed either. There are some intriguing second and third base prospects and speedy outfielders at Arkansas and Wilmington. Costa and Maier both are doing fine and look to be ready to help out the Royals if need arises. The only unqualified success stories so far in 2008 are Kila Kaaihue and the Wilmington fire-ballers (Teaford, Kniginyzky, Holland, Barrera and Swaggety.)

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kinda weird...

Blake Johnson’s perihperals stats are all better than last year…GB%, K%, and BB% yet his ERA is nearly a full point higher than last year as well. I still like him quite a bit.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 12, 2008 3:16 PM EDT 0 recs

I see his HR rate is up to 1.05,

which is still perfectly fine, but quite a jump over where it was last year. His K rate still is on the low side. 5.47 last year and 5.32 this year.

My thinking here is that his ERA was “lucky” last year. Those numbers just do not add up to a 3.28 ERA.

I am not as bullish on him as some people. Not like I have ever seen him pitch or have any special insight here.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 12, 2008 8:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yea...

He was a tad lucky last year.

I see him as a strike throwing #4 type starter that is close to big league ready (compared to his peers). His ceiling is limited because he lacks a true weapon against lefties (changeup is his worst pitch). A poor mans Jon Garland might be a decent comparison, which is quite acceptable for a back end starter.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 13, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

I would have to disagree about Salmon over Rosa

Rosa is the best arm in Omaha. His ERA is ballooned because of a bad first start and one other bad start, otherwise he has around a 2.15 ERA. If you just toss out that first game (attribute that to nerves) he has a 3.49 ERA which would put him in the Top 5 in the PCL if he had enough innings to qualify. Lots of ifs there but still I would rank Salmon about 4th on their current roster below Rosa, Musser and Lowery he’s probably the equivalent of a younger Duckworth.

Who cares about RBI's, how many HDB's you got?

by kcscoliny on Jul 12, 2008 4:50 PM EDT 0 recs

+1

Rosa is the real deal hopefully. Since he already had a cup of coffee, it’s definitely possible we see him in September. Didn’t he start the year in AA?

by I need more Esteban on Jul 12, 2008 5:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hi KCSC

I’ve kinda known about Salmon for about three years now. He was the Neal Musser of the Reds organization before he came to KC. His high end is probably season’s similar to what Joel Peralta has put up the last few years. Modest. I am sure you are right, that Rosa has the better arm and more promising future. I was focusing on what these pitchers were capable fo doing right now to help the main club if need arose. Looking over their numbers I expect Salmon would perform better than Rosa at the MLB level this season. Hopefully the Royals will be able to leave Rosa down at Omaha through August at least to let him build up innings.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 12, 2008 5:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Nice write up

Let’s hope this year’s draft adds even more depth to our entire minors.

by I need more Esteban on Jul 12, 2008 5:24 PM EDT 0 recs

Thanks Esty

I wish the Royals had drafted a college power hitter in the first round. I don’t see any 30 HR guys coming up in the high minors.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 12, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

It's a crapshoot in the draft...

Let’s just hope that we got a superstar by taking a High Schooler.

by I need more Esteban on Jul 12, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

i think thats generally the reason to pick HS over college....

id say, doing absolutely no research at all….that more of the ‘superstar’ talents in baseball were drafted/signed before they were 21.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 12, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hosmer

looks to be a 30+ HR guy. He is 6-4 210 lbs at 18 years old probably could be 6-6 240 lbs. With his swing he could be KC’s first 40 HR guy if he actually signs and develops. Wouldn’t it be nice to have one of those.

Who cares about RBI's, how many HDB's you got?

by kcscoliny on Jul 12, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

first 40 homer guy to play for the royals...

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 12, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'd rather see Costa or Maier up over Gathright at this point

by royalsreview on Jul 12, 2008 6:43 PM EDT 0 recs

i would not....gathright has at least 1 probably 2 skills in defense and stealing bases....

i dont see either of those guys having a single above average major league skill

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 12, 2008 6:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

I like having them there as insurance now

but I do not think either Costa or Maier would be an upgrade over Gathright at this point. I think overall the Costa/Maier/Gathright issue is kinda a wash. None of them seperate from the 4th outfielder category.

Kill me now, but I’d have to say that Jason Smith is Omaha player most deserving of a call up. Yeah, that sucks.

It will be interesting to see how the Pena/German/Callaspo mix gets worked out in the next month. When Callaspo comes back I think either Pena or German will be moved off the 25 man roster one way or the other. I really like Grudz. I wouldn’t mind the team keeping him through 2009.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 12, 2008 8:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

that means we have ANOTHER year of not having young guys who might be the 2b of the future not getting ABs

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 12, 2008 10:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Speaking strictly of Gathright

I think it’s generous to say that he’s even in the 4th outfielder category.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 13, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

depends what you're looking for out of a 4th OF...

im fine with my 4th outfielder being able to steal bases, come in to bunt (when applicable), come in to move davey to left and remove Jose for defensive purposes, etc….he’s not killing us if he gets 10 abs or so/week….its when he gets 20-25 that its bad.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 14, 2008 1:53 AM EDT up 0 recs

Gathright has had a poor year

If he can keep his OBP over .350 he is a perfectly good 4th outfielder in my mind.

Given that the Royals have other players capable of filling the role I wonder if Gathright will be shopped on the trade market this year? I wonder what he might bring in? Maybe a blocked SS or 1B prospect?

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 14, 2008 9:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

we wont get a good blocked 1b or ss prospect....

so theres really no point in trading him…unless we package him with mahay and that increases that return.

who do we have in the minors that is capable of playing very good centerfield defense and stealing bases? The guys down there, do the same things as davey and teahen…just not as well….theyd be redundant

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 14, 2008 4:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

On the whole, I don't see much help coming from AAA/AA in 2009

I am guilty of constantly overrating the guys in our system but overall, KC’s minor league system in 2008 has been disappointing. I don’t see any regulars who would be considered starting or even platooning in 2009. Based on 2008, Costa, Maier, and Shealy don’t have a future in KC. Stodolka and Lubanski haven’t shown much this year and most of the guys putting up numbers are insurance policy/retread types like Jason Smith. Kila Kaahiue has put up big numbers and could be in the late bloomer category. Of course, KC doesn’t have a great track record with those types Mike Aviles not withstanding.

On the pitching side, I could see Carlos Rosa making the KC staff. Neal Musser, Brad Salmon, Tyler Lumsden don’t have a future in KC either. They are either AAAA pitchers or guys that need another look in another place. To me, Lumsden has been the biggest disappointment in the entire system. Starting rotation in Cortes and Wood have potential in MLB but Johnson and Pimental are shaky at best. If KC could get 1-2 consistant contributors in the pitching dept. and 1-2 bench players from anyone in the field at AAA/AA, I would be surprised.

Once again, KC will need to go outside the organization to shore up years of poor drafting and minor league development. Just can’t get too excited about Angel Sanchez, Irving Falu, Jose Duarte, Brian McFall, Marc Maddox and Adam Donachie – they are organizational players unless some serious improvement happens.

by daveyork on Jul 15, 2008 11:04 AM EDT 0 recs

just my opinion

But I don’t think McFall should be lumped with those other names. He’s got serious big league tools and has improved his walk and power totals from last year to this. His BABIP is kinda low last time I checked.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 15, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

isn't he somewhat old for a prospect, though?

i mean, just look at his facebook profile

http://www.facebook.com/people/Brian_McFall/587446799

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Jul 15, 2008 3:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

that doesn't project well...

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jul 18, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed. McFall is a notch or two above guys like Duarte and Falu.

Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!

by RATW on Jul 16, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Remnants of the Baird Era.

Our AAA and AA are so depleted because of the poor drafting and insight for the infamous “youth movement” from XGM Baird. Moore has a few guys there but we won’t see large improvement until his draft classes are filling up the system. I think that is one reason we have drafted so many HS kids early the last few seasons. We do have good looking players though in the system. Stealing Melville in this years draft could be huge. Moore seems to be trying to solidify our A and High A level teams right now. Adding Strait and Correll. Where did we get them by the way?

I think Kaaihue looks great. His swing is very good. I’ve heard Will Clark comparisons. My thoughts are we through $25 million at Teixera for a one year deal or until KK is ready. We trade Tex to the highest bidder at deadline time for some LaPorta type players. And if we’re in the race, we keep him and take a draft pick or two from someone the next year.

I also haven’t personally seen Giavotella but I think he’ll be a solid player for us.

by 306008 on Jul 22, 2008 4:03 PM EDT 0 recs

Tex isn't going to sign a one year deal

when he can get a long-term contract instead.

Royals, NBA, Golden Hurricane, Hawkeyes, Chiefs, and KU basketball, in that order.

by Rowyal on Jul 22, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, he'll get 5-7 years easy

And $20-25M per year.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 4:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Just me,

But I am not yet sold on Moore as an effective drafter. The 2007 draft looks below average to me at this point. We’ll see.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 22, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

well..thats really a problem right there.

its been just about a year since most of these guys started playing, some (moose) less than that. Something like our top 8 draft picks…which are the guys expected to contribute were HS guys who should take longer to start excelling. If we had drafted a bunch of Giavotella type guys in the first few rounds last year and they were all producing like him…still in a ball at 23 years old or whatever, thatd be a little different.

however, it’ll also be interesting to see if he does any better than baird did with his 1st round picks…those are the only guys baird was given any money to sign…and they havent been terrible in butler, greinke, lubanski (there are lots of worse 1st round picks), maier, howell, campbell and griffin…out of all those guys, the only ones unlikely to make the majors are griffin and campbell….and he got an ace, supposedly a cornerstone hitter, probably 2 3-4th outfielder types and a loogy at worst

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 22, 2008 4:53 PM EDT up 0 recs

Drafts really don't prove themselves as good or bad for 3-5 years

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Of course, but they can be evaluated immediately.

From what I have seen so far I think Moore is no whiz on draft day. Maybe time will prove me wrong. There is no reason to think so at this point.

Now the international signings the last few years, they have been golden. I wonder who is in charge of scouting pitchers overseas? Whoever it is they are doing a great job.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 22, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Moore has nothing to do with the drafts

Except for maybe the first round pick. It’s all Ladnier and his scouts/cross checkers.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 22, 2008 5:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

Buck stops at the top.

Moore has to take responsiblity for the draft. He hired the staff.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 22, 2008 5:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sure one can attempt to evaluate it immediately

...but with very limited success. BTW, does Moore get any credit for the great 2008 draft? I mean, if we’re going to attempt to evaluate them immediately, then you have to give the Royals an “A” for their 2008 draft.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

I really don't have any idea about the 2008 draft yet

I haven’t dug into it yet. But I am starting to worry about that top pick. He still is unsigned.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 22, 2008 8:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Suffice it to say that every analyst thinks the Royals had a very good draft, especially if they end up signing both Hosmer and Melville

I haven’t dug into it yet. But I am starting to worry about that top pick. He still is unsigned.

Are you joking? How many top 10 picks have been signed by now? Last year didn’t most first rounders not sign until the last week before the deadline? Isn’t that Boras’s standard M.O. with high draft picks? Did you actually expect him to sign early? What is it about him not being signed by July 22 that’s worrying you?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, you know, it's not like last year

when we had Moose Tacos signed and playing in A-ball by the All-Star Break.

Oh, wait.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 23, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up 0 recs

They had a secret deal in June and he was playing in Surprise, AZ under a fake name

In the team photo, he’s the one with the wig and fake beard.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 23, 2008 12:22 AM EDT up 0 recs

what evidence is there really that moores international signings have been better than his drafts?

I like the fact that we’re spending money…but those guys are even farther off from us knowing anything

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 22, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not that I am an expert on this at all,

but it seems to me that the low level teams have quite a few good arms in them. I did a little research on the Arizona team for a diary earlier this month and there are at least three really good looking pitchers down there from the Dominican Republic, all signed in the last two years.

I’d sure like to see a few good looking power hitters down in the low minors as well.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 22, 2008 8:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Draft

Do we need to hire someone else to work the drafting process for hitters? Put Ladnier in charge and have a guy underneath him to be in charge of pitcher scouting and a guy in charge of hitter scouting. Then we just got back and forth between the two to decide who is the best available and go with that pick. I’m not sure how it works right now but it seems like we’ve done great with the pitchers the last two years. Especially the HS guys. We’ve got some good sticks here and there but we’ve missed on to many college hitters already. Anyone know exactly how the war room works with the draft or how we dispatch our scouts?

So does that mean Melville is pitching in Arizona right now with a mustache and fake name and a Dominican passport? I wonder if he speaks Spanish….

by 306008 on Jul 23, 2008 12:18 PM EDT 0 recs