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Reshaping the Roster, A Retrospective: Part II The Pitchers

Last week, we took a look back at the changes Dayton Moore has made to the big league roster since taking over during the 2006 season, specifically the position players. Part II examines the pitching staff, which has been subject to a much more radical transformation.

Dayton Moore inherited a bad team in 2006. The Royals would only win 62 games, which was actually their highest win total in three season. The '06 Royals couldn't hit, were bad defensively and were terrible on the mound. Although Moore's earliest moves were aimed at upgrading the offense (Gathright, amazingly, and Shealy) it quickly became apparent that his top priority was building a pitching staff. And for good reason, for while the offense was bad (12th in the AL in runs scored), the '06 pitching staff was legitimately worthy of the label "historically bad".

Star-divide

The '06 staff struck out the fewest hitters in the league and walked the most, while allowing the second most home runs. The team ERA was over 5.00 during every month of the season, en route to allowing the most runs in the league. Overall, the Buddys gave up 971 runs, easily the most in baseball, and as I discovered that fall, the 21st highest total ever allowed. Lastly, perhaps the most amazing thing about the '06 pitching staff was this: Jimmy Gobble led the team in strikeouts. That's right, a semi-effective relief pitcher who once posted one of the lowest K/9 for a starter in the modern era led the team in strikeouts.

A staggering number of bad pitchers have shuttled through Kansas City in the last twenty years and 2006 was the annus mirabilis of failed pitchers. Essentially, every significant idea Allard tried failed as the staff reeled from the Spring Training departure of Zack Greinke. Even trying to assign labels to this group is difficult. Just who was the "fifth starter" on the '06 team? By performance level, basically they all were and with seventeen pitchers making a start, there are something like nine or ten guys who might qualify. Anyway, before your humble servant cranks out any more sentences with punchlines in italics lets compare the starting rotations, then as now. Remember, I'm going with Baird's guys more or less out of the gate, although it went south so quickly its a legitimate challenge to define things.

2006 ERA+ 2008 ERA+
SP1 Elarton 88 Meche 91
SP2 Redman 82 Bannister 82
SP3 Hernandez 73 Greinke 123
SP4 Mays 46 Hochevar 84
SP5 Affeldt 79 Tomko 61
SP5 Hudson 92 Davies 91
SP5 Bautista 83 Bale 56

Aside from the technical exception of Jimmy Gobble, no one who started a game for the Royals in 2006 is now a part of the organization's plans. Brandon Duckworth (8 starts) and Luke Hudson (15 starts) are still around in some vague sense, but are not likely to contribute to the big league club ever again and only Affeldt is a good bet to appear on any 25-man roster in 2009.

Moore eventually acquired Odalis Perez and inserted them as Jorge de la Rosa rotation regulars, and combined Odie and JDLR made 71 starts in blue and white, albeit in different circumstances. Thanks to a second-half surge of adequacy, Luke Hudson emerged as the quasi-ace of the staff, and was poised to earn himself something like at least two more contracts and maybe $20 million more in earnings, thanks to his workman like 92 ERA+. Unfortunately, Luke has battled injuries since 2006, and will likely have to support himself with a non-baseball job for may decades after retirement.

Perhaps the greatest achievement of the 2008 rotation, despite some disappointing numbers, is the actual coherence of the rotation as an idea. Leaving aside the fact that Greinke is clearly the best pitcher (now and going forward) of the bunch, you've got a reliable Meche at the top, a potentially reliable Banny behind him, an emerging Hochevar and then some #5 flotsam, which is perfectly normal. The 2006 rotation was like twelve versions of Tomko battling it out for five months.

The question remains however, just how excited we should be about Moore's progress on the rotation. As with every other facet of the roster he inherited, the staff he was charged with improving was incredibly horrible. So on one hand, we need to be reminded of the need for patience, on the other, making the worst staff in baseball a little bit better shouldn't be so hard. You mean he had to choose not to make another run at Joe Mays and Steve Stemle? Greinke remains a potentially special player, but most realistically a second-tier ace type. Meche is now a career league average pitcher right on the nose, which I think is a decent approximation of his performance going forward, with extra value added for durability. Hochevar could be at Meche's level by season's end, and certainly should be moving forward. That leaves the franchise with three starters who are demonstrably better than anybody employed in 2006, and represents a very promising rotation core. Brian Bannister should probably best be seen as what Allard saw Scott Elarton as back in 2006: a dude who sorta gives you a chance every time out. As your fourth best starter, that's valuable. Looking at the rotations from another perspective, although I'm pretty lukewarm on Banny, I nevertheless feel better about his future than I did any member of the 2006 rotation. As for the fifth starter of the future... isn't that an oxymoron? Honestly, hopefully it's Bannister and in the meantime someone better emerges above him.

With memories of "All-Star Mark Redman" dancing between our ears, let us take a look at the bullpen work Dayton has done:

2006 ERA+ 2008 ERA+
CL Burgos 85 Soria 286
RP Dessens 104 Ramirez 152
RP Sisco 66 Mahay 229
RP Nelson 106 Nunez 250
RP Peralta 107 Peralta 76
RP Gobble 91 Gobble 56
RP Wood 82 H. Ramirez 286

 

With bullpen roles and hierarchies as fluid as they are, I've simply tried to list the most common guys in the middle, with the designated closer up top and the designated longman/swingman at the bottom. The 2006 has a million guys appear in the pen, but aside from Wood, that is more or less the bully as Baird wanted it heading north in 2006. Nunez would also appear in 2006, but in fairly limited duty. As strange as it sounds, the bullpen was the strength of the team in 2006. They weren't good, per se, but they weren't presented to you by FEMA either. (Although ERA based numbers for relievers are pretty problematic.)  Without getting too complicated (which I welcome in the comments) the bullpen had some decent guys. Elmer Dessens was decent. Joe Nelson was decent. Current holdovers Jimmy Gobble and Joel Peralta were decent. (How odd is it that those were the guys who remained?) Yes, the '06 pen ended up posting a league-worst 5.36 ERA, but considering the starters came out at 5.85 ERA, that league-worst performance still helped mitigate disaster. Moreover, compared to the starters, the bullpen was a much more stable group.

Still, the 2008 edition is plainly better. Throwing out Ho-Ram's small sample size glory, the current pen claims four fireballers who are markedly better than any reliever the Royals had in 2006. Moore deserves no genius plaudits for signing Ron Mahay and having Leo Nunez mature on his watch, but should be applauded for finding studs Joakim Soria and Ramon Ramirez. Although bullpen performances remain extremely unpredictable from year to year, Moore has emulated the White Sox model of accumulating a number of guys who can miss bats, an element the Royals have lacked on the mound for a decade. Although the bullpen's ERA has fallen back to 9th best in the AL (3.84), Royals relievers are 8th in K/9 and 4th in K/BB in the AL. In those same three categories in 2006, the Royal pen ranked 14th, 11th and 12th respectively. Hopefully, Moore will be able to maximize his most clearly demonstrated skill thus far as a GM, an ability to find pitchers. To do so, he'll need to flip finds like Ramirez for more talent in other areas. Thus far, we've seen nothing resembling a sell-high trade from Moore.

Dayton Moore has famously said that pitching is the "currency of baseball" and let it be known that his plan is to develop the organization's pitching depth, before using those assets to acquire offense. As outlined in Part I, the offense is certainly not much better two years into his regime, and in fact may be worse, so Moore's purported strategy is a either a telling admission of policy or a convenient excuse. The logical implication of the "currency of baseball" ethos is that building an offense is easy, something that can be done casually or on the side. If this is the case, why are the Royals so far from having a league average lineup and why does Moore need to trade pitching in the first place to construct one? Essentially, Dayton has told us that he is confident he can not only build one good pitching staff, he can build one and a half good staffs. The question is, do we believe him?

Looking ahead to 2009 and 2010, it isn't hard to imagine that Moore has the pieces in place to field a good, not great, starting rotation and a good, maybe great, bullpen. (Forget for a moment that these adjectives, which so many of us Royals fans have accepted as articles as faith are not backed up by the numbers.) Barring a major leap by Hochevar -- another player Moore really shouldn't receive much credit for -- it looks very much like one of the milquetoast rotations we've seen do well in the National League (the mid-decade Cardinals, last year's Rockies) and look much less impressive against the American League. That being said, if everything breaks right, you don't need a 2006 Johan Santana on your team to have a good pitching staff (i.e. this year's White Sox). However, as we continue to wind back and forth between positive and negative ways of looking at the same uncertainty, good soldiers like Gil Meche and Brian Bannister and someone from the Davies/Tomko/Bale pool are going to have to actually be what we treat them as, or wish they were, and not not-quite-there imitations. Of course, playoff teams with #2,#2,#3,#4,#4 type rotations almost always have above-average offenses. As with our hopes for the pitching staff, an above average staff remains, like a stress-free Thanksgiving, something that we can easily imagine, yet also likely to fall short of.

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God

didn’t Gobble strike out something like 72 batters?

Excellent piece. I think the rotation can be better than good in the future. I like Hochevar a lot and I think he has a shot to be pretty good. He is gonna need to amp up that k rate and decrease the walks though. I also like Grienke to ascend into that upper echelon of pitchers.

I think it would be a crime if we don’t at least try to get Soria into a SP role. Ramon or Nunez can handle closing duties.

Overall, you have to be optimistic about a good future staff. We have some good talent in the minors too.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 14, 2008 3:24 AM EDT   0 recs

Great article

I think Hochevar and Davies will develop. I am concerned with Davies control issues and wonder if he might be a bullpen arm in the end. We also have Rosa and Cortes not too far behind these guys who could make an impact on the rotation. The bullpen could be great especially if some of the guys who don’t pan out as starters wind up there.

by lordbyronk on Jul 14, 2008 9:14 AM EDT   0 recs

+1

On the “Davies as a reliever” thought.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 14, 2008 12:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Can't do that to HoRamie

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 14, 2008 12:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I believe that is Ho-Rammie

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jul 14, 2008 2:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wait, did I mess up the name, or just how the expression goes?

And can we get a link, perhaps a fanshot permanently stick-ied, of an original article quoting Bell on the Minky-Huber situation?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 14, 2008 2:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I believe the quote was

“that wouldn’t be fair to Dougie”
not sure if it would be HoRamie or Ho-Rammie
we may need a ruling from the Commissioner (or RR)

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jul 14, 2008 4:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Very nice post.

The trio of Elarton, Redman and Mays should have been the “Scrap-Heapers.”

I initial reservation, I am now all for giving Soria a shot in the rotation. If he ends up being a very good SP, he would provide more value than as a great closer. If he becomes a solid #1 guy then you have effectively upgraded every starter….Grenke becomes an excellent #2 instead of an average #1 and so on.

In an organization full of good arms you should be able to fill the overrated “closer” role effectively

My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!

by Royal Kingdom on Jul 14, 2008 12:01 PM EDT   0 recs

I suck at this game - that should read "after initial reservation"

My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!

by Royal Kingdom on Jul 14, 2008 12:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I did not know Nunez had been that good this season

He was a key guy in the pen, and it hasn’t been the same without him.

by Dani Woodward on Jul 14, 2008 12:32 PM EDT   0 recs

Great stuff

There should be a new adjective invented to describe how awful the Royals pitching was in 2006. “Elartonesque” perhaps.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 14, 2008 12:35 PM EDT   0 recs

You neglected to debate

Soria to the rotation.

I think that is the key decision going forward for 2009 and 2010.

by loyal2sdad on Jul 14, 2008 12:51 PM EDT   0 recs

indeed

I am starting to think that Soria in the rotation isn’t going to happen. I think the Hillman/Moore braintrust seems like the a) overvaluing ad mystifiying closers set and b) ai’t broke don’t fix it types.

I think this is a mistake, but what will happen.

by royalsreview on Jul 14, 2008 2:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Really?

Although I’m perhaps not as skeptical as you are regarding Moore, I am more than others (just doing better than Allard Baird doesn’t make him a good GM any more than not being Jeffrey Loria suddently makes Glass a good owner). However, I take some heart in the fact that when moving Soria to the rotation is brought up in interviews, Moore doesn’t dismiss it. I mean, even if he was dismissing it, I wouldn’t put too much into it, as GMs do that, but the fact that he doesn’t deny it and that it is often reported that the Royals see him as a starter gives me some hope they’ll give it a go. And they might be forced to, if they are really going to trade pitching for, say, players who can actually hit at some point.

As for Hillman, I seriously hope that the manager doesn’t get to overrule or have equal say with the GM on issues like this. The Joba thing, while still in the early going, is one more example of how well this could work.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 14, 2008 2:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree

Front office guys like Ladnier have mentioned it before. The fact that there is a stipulation in his contract should he become a starter I think is evidence that it is very much in their minds.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 14, 2008 3:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought he had

stipulations for both games closed and games started. So either way he had a chance to make the bonus or what ever was stipulated.

by TXroyal on Jul 14, 2008 10:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Even if that's true

That’s evidence they’re at least contemplating the scenario.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 14, 2008 11:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm much happier with the rotation now

But it’s kinda sad that apart from Grienke, the ERA+ numbers aren’t a whole lot different. Change the order for Mays and Bautista, and it looks about the same (w/ Grienke being the obvious outlier).

by Top Ramen on Jul 14, 2008 1:15 PM EDT   0 recs

ERA+ in context

Comparing ERA+ might be a little skewed here because scoring runs so far in 2008 is down significantly from 2006 (and 2007).

2006 AL Average
4.97 R/G (KC: 5.99 R/G)
4.56 ERA (KC: 5.65 ERA)
100 ERA+ (KC: 85 ERA+)

2007 AL Average
4.90 R/G (KC: 4.80 R/G)
4.50 ERA (KC: 4.48 ERA)
100 ERA+ ( KC: 104 ERA+)

2008 AL Average
4.61 R/G (KC: 4.77 R/G)
4.12 ERA (KC: 4.52 ERA)
100 ERA+ ( KC: 95 ERA+)

ERA and its extrapolation, ERA+, measure a lot more than just how a pitcher performs, so looking just at them creates a false impression that the 2006 and 2008 staffs have performed similarly.

by Gopherballs on Jul 14, 2008 1:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, that is why the ERA+ for 2006 and 2008 are relatively close

even though the 2008 staff has pitched circles around the 2006 staff. The historical outlier is penalizing the 2008 Royals to some extent. There is also a sample size issue, as 2008 only has half the data as the other full years (and historically, run scoring tends to increase in the second half), and there have been an unusually high rate of unearned runs this year (RA-ERA usually runs about 0.40, but his year is closer to 0.50).

by Gopherballs on Jul 14, 2008 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I guess its an interesting question

if the royals are being punished, or showing lesser numbers, bc of the lower run environment, or if they are also getting a little benefit from the lesser lineups around the AL

I’m not sure you ca seperate the Royals from the rest of baseball, and say, these guys would be posting the same raw ERAs in 2006,7 or whever

by royalsreview on Jul 14, 2008 2:43 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You should not throw the environment out the window

but where 2008 is such a significant outlier in terms of run scoring in recent history, it begs the question of whether there is something fluky going on this year or has a fundamental shift in the run scoring environment actually taken place. It might be some combination of both, but such a one-year drop screams more fluke than fundamental change in the scoring environment that you see over decades (when parks got smaller, teams got smarter by emphasizing OBP, and baseballs got wound tighter). What exactly has changed from last year to this year to account for the dip (so far) in run scoring? (And any change from the drug testing plan would have started two years ago—and probably would have affected both pitchers and hitters.)

by Gopherballs on Jul 14, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

yea

we’ll see what happens when the year’s final numbers are out

isn’t run scoring actually UP in the NL?

by royalsreview on Jul 14, 2008 3:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Run scoring int he NL

is probably up due to the influx of ex-Royals pitchers (Redman, Hernandez, Bautista)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 14, 2008 3:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

so outside of the Zack Attack....

our rotation is performing on the same level as 2006. Im starting to get deja vu….the chiefs brought in Herm to rebuild the defense b/c it was ‘so bad’....ranked 16th in the league….2 years later….lots of players later…it is now 14th in the league…Just b/c someone emphasizes pitching (or defense in the Chiefs case), doesnt mean its going to automatically get better.

Now, I know that the minor league depth has improved, but our pitching that matters, really hasnt.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 14, 2008 2:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

no dead weight either, which is major

there’s been no Joe Mays this year, and remember, there were a ton of guys like Stemle, Snyder, Keppell, etc, who kept making starts as well

by royalsreview on Jul 14, 2008 2:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

(insert runelvyz/dead weight joke here)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 14, 2008 2:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

When defense and luck are removed from the equation

Bannister’s FIP is a solid 4.49 (2007 Bannister was 4.52). He is at least a decent back of the rotation starter, which is far from dead weight.

by Gopherballs on Jul 14, 2008 3:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

while i understand that FIP is a viable stat....

it is not the be all end all that alot of you guys make it out to be. He’s allowing alot of baserunners, striking out about 5 guys/9, only has a 2-1 k/bb ratio, etc. He probably isnt dead weight…and probably is a 5th starter type….its not good that our preseason #2 starter is now our number 5…and not because of the other guys performing well.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 14, 2008 3:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I just had it all typed up really nicely here and it went away...

but is LOB% really all that independent of the quality of pitcher?

I looked up like 15 pitchers…felix, haren, webb, sabathia, peavy, zambrano, wang, hamels, santana and some others…all good pitchers…and only wang had a LOB% below that 72% average…i didnt cherry pick..i just picked names of good pitchers and looked them up…but from my very amateur study…it looks like good pitchers leave less guys on base than bad pitchers, which would do more to explain Bannys low number than the middle relief

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 14, 2008 4:13 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

For outliers like Bannister, yes

For starters over a full season, the typical range is the average plus or minus 5%-6% or so. With an average 72% LOB%, the best starters should be in the 77%-78% range, while the worst starters will be in the 67%-68% range. Bannister is last in the AL at 63%. With his peripherals near average, his LOB% should positively regress closer to 70% in neutral environment. Last year, his LOB% was 70%. He is not pitching much differently this year, but the LOB% is significantly down. Middle relief is not the sole culprit, just a contributing factor (along with luck, defense, etc.).

by Gopherballs on Jul 14, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

and his below average ability to strike people out or induce groundballs....

if he could do either of those things well, his LOB% would be better due to DPs and strikeouts in sac fly situations

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 14, 2008 5:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It should be closer to 70%, just below average, not an outlier like 63%

From last year, his K rate is up a full strike out per game (and the walk rate is the same), which balances out the modest increase in line drives and even smaller decrease in groundballs.

by Gopherballs on Jul 14, 2008 8:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

its just as likely that he was lucky last year...

as it is that he’s unlucky this year with regards to leaving runners on base

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 14, 2008 8:35 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, it's not

In neutral environments, the low end for a bad starter should be around 67% and an average starter should around 72%. Bannister should be between there.

by Gopherballs on Jul 14, 2008 8:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

it might just be you...

but when i say the royals pitching has been bad this year…using runs allowed…which it has….you throw out the FIP stats that say they’re .12 runs below average per game….and immediately that means that the pitching isnt bad…thats acting like its the be all end all to me

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 14, 2008 8:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, it means FIP is more accurate than your use of ERA to gauge how a pitcher has performed

You can go back and read my comments from thread after thread evaluating pitchers based on FIP, the significant rate stats (K rate, BB rate, HR rates), batted ball data (LD%, GB%, FB%), BABIP, LOB%, etc.

by Gopherballs on Jul 14, 2008 9:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think that's been key

Our five worst pitchers this year are much better than the five worse pitchers in 2006. We seem to get rid of dead weight, and replace it with something better, whereas in 2006 we were constantly replacing dead weight with dead weight.

Also, we’re much healthier this year than in 2006. We had to use dead weight a lot in 2006 because guys kept getting hurt.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 14, 2008 3:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh man

What a disaster that rotation was.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 14, 2008 4:08 PM EDT   0 recs

Overall, a great article, Will

The one criticism I have is that your predictions of the future in ‘09 and ‘10 don’t take into account the pitching talent we have residing in Omaha and Arkansas right now. If Hoch, Davies, or Banny stagnate, I would not be the least bit surprised to see Rosa grab the #4 or 5 spot in the starting rotation out of ST next year (and I hope Rosa gets another call-up in September—I think he’s earned it), and Dan Cortes will likely be MLB-ready by 2010.

Re: the Soria as starter debate that took place above-I’ve said this before, but I think that debating the question “Should Soria start?” is not terribly productive. The better question to debate is, “If Soria should start, who should he replace in the rotation?” We first need to evaluate whether Rosa or Soria would be the more effective starter-Rosa has a lot of the same talents that Soria does-he not only throws a variety of pitches for strikes, he is surgical with almost all of those pitches…plus his velocity is a notch higher than Soria’s. I’m not saying Rosa is better than Soria now-but I do think he has the capacity to be as effective as Soria, even if he lacks Soria’s six-pitch repertoire.

Beyond the Rosa v. Soria debate, we have to ask, who would they replace? Of the Banny-Hoch-Davies trio, I think Davies is the most likely candidate to be chucked from the rotation (in part because I agree with Retro and others that he would make a fine bullpen candidate). I think either Soria or Rosa would represent a potentially huge upgrade over Davies, and probably Bannister as well, though I think Hoch should develop into a decent #3 starter behind Meche and the staff’s new de-facto ace, Greinke.

by DarthYoshi on Jul 14, 2008 4:16 PM EDT   0 recs

looking ahead

Part III will look at the minor league system, btw.

Yea, hopefully Rosa/Cortes and or someone else will emerge. I don’t know if 2009 is in play for them or not…

by royalsreview on Jul 14, 2008 5:02 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I wish I was more optimistic about Cortes and Rosa

But I don’t seem them doing much more than Peralta/Gobble have done in the majors.

Don’t get me wrong—there’s plenty of value in being able to contribute at that level. I just don’t see the sort of dominance there that I see in Greinke or Soria. I am happy they are with the franchise, though, as their presence in the bigs may be enough to allow Soria to move to the rotation with minimal disruption, with Nunez or Ramirez (the good one) sliding into the closer’s role.

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Jul 14, 2008 6:10 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

im kinda on the same page...

although, the fact that you think that they cant be as dominant as soria, leaves the possibility open…b/c soria was a 23 yr old in A ball when we plucked him in the rule 5 draft, so nobody was too high on him either

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 14, 2008 6:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The depth of KC's starting staff allows Cortes and/or Rosa

to break into the major leagues without needing to take on a significant role. Ideally, they could hold down the 5th starter/long relief role until they showed what they can do. I would look for Rosa in 09 with Cortes and Blake Wood in 2010. Meche, Greinke, Hochevar, Bannister, and Davies are league average as a rotation. If Rosa or Cortes show great ability, starting pitching is always easy to move. Perhaps this offseason, KC will resist the annual habit of needing a “veteran presence” in the back of the rotation like Brett Tomko or Joe Mays. What a waste of money!

Finding one inning types for the bullpen is much easier – Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez were small trades that paid off. KC can build around Soria, those two and add other pieces like John Bale, Gobble, or whoever.

by daveyork on Jul 14, 2008 11:16 PM EDT   0 recs

I will completely admit to

thinking that Tomko signing was defensible at the time. I did not think either Hoch or Davies was really ready for the bigs (Davies seemed in over his head after the Dotel trade, and Hoch had a really rough time in the minors last year), so we needed several different candidates to fill out the bottom end of the rotation. Tomko was not my first choice for such a signning, but I understood why Moore did it at the time.

However, that does NOT mean Moore will necessarily do that again this offseason. Last ST, all our best pitching talent in the minors was at AA level. This next year, Rosa should be close to MLB-ready, which could make a huge difference.

I agree that finding one-inning types are easier and that GMDM has been good at it. Both RamRam and Nunez have the capacity to be effective closers if we move Soria to the rotation (although Nunez probably has the higher ceiling if he can stay injury-free—RamRam turns 27 in August and is unlikely to get much better, but Nunez only turns 25 this year).

by DarthYoshi on Jul 15, 2008 12:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Great post

I think between Rosa and Cortes (near future); Wood and Duffy (and Runion?—longer term future); I think there’s a chance one of those guys could be our #1. That’s not really a bold statement, I mean ANY pitcher COULD be a future #1, but I have a glass-is-half-full feeling that one of those five guys is a #1. Just purely from a “stuff” standpoint, four of them are high strikeout pitchers. Throw in your Pimentels, Johnsons, Melvilles (party time if the Royals sign him), and Montgomerys…I like where this is going.

I follow the Tao of Steve (Balboni)

by jackie ballgame on Jul 15, 2008 10:39 AM EDT   0 recs

All indications have been that the Royals will sign Melville

It’ll take a while, but everything I’ve heard and read has indicated that the deal will get done.

by DarthYoshi on Jul 15, 2008 1:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i would imagine he'll sign before Hosmer

just a hunch

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Jul 15, 2008 3:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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