Kansas City @ Chicago GameThread, Jul 18, 2008 8:11 PM EDT

First!

ive been waiting for this thread for so long!

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 18, 2008 7:01 PM EDT 0 recs

I am so freaking pumped for this game

I want to demolish the White Sox!

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 18, 2008 7:01 PM EDT 0 recs

I'm predicting two Aviles HR's off of Buehrle

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:03 PM EDT 0 recs

NYRoyal

I feel like you’ve been gone for awhile, did you go to your summer home for the All-Star Break?

by I need more Esteban on Jul 18, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Wedding and honeymoon in Jamaica

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

haha that just reminds me of the office episode

back from vacation.

” Michael: The Jamaicans don’t have a word for “impossible.”
“Jim: Yep, it’s English. It’s “impossible.”

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 18, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Congrats

Blown Save

by BlownSave on Jul 18, 2008 7:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Congrats!

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 18, 2008 8:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Thanks :)

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'll add my congrats

to the congrats parade. That’s really cool. :)

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 18, 2008 8:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

U.S. Cellular Field is a buzzsaw

It’s so intimidating with its short dimensions. Sometimes I think I could hit a 5-run home run in that absolute stinker of a bandbox.

By the way, Kenny Williams has now solidified himself well into the top half of G.M.’s in baseball, in my humble opinion.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 7:17 PM EDT 0 recs

Kenny Williams sucks as a GM

He’s riding flukey pitching this year, just as he did in 2005. Guys like Floyd, Contreras and Danks aren’t going to be able to keep this up. And his offensive core is aging rapidly.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

it pisses me off to no end

that his win now strategy to get Swisher has paid off so far. Even if Swisher has been awful.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 18, 2008 7:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

They are winning, but the Swisher trade certainly hasn't paid off or helped the winning at all

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

At what point does it become not a fluke?

Come on! Other than 2007, the White Sox have been perennial contenders atop the AL Central! And I think their burgeoning payroll can more than overcome a slightly greater prospect giveaway. Quentin, Swisher, and Ramirez were each outstanding additions this offseason.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 7:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

I loathe the White Sox, too

Their fanbase is largely classless and their announcers are rude. Plus, Ozzie Guillen is a racist. And I loathe the fact that Joe Morgan, a man whom I disagree with often, deems Williams the best G.M. in baseball.

However, they are just another well-run contending team in a buzzsaw of a division….the American League Central.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 7:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

They are poorly run, and their win-now strategy is going to cost them over the next 3-5 years

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ramirez? Swisher?

are not that good. I’d take Swisher but not a chance in hell on Ramirez. Quentin has been the offense to this point.

And their pitching is going to totally collapse soon. Too many guys pitching over their heads.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 18, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

Rotation

Buehrle – legitimate #2, probable ace on a few good seasons.
Contreras – horrendous 2007, but decent peripherals. Definite #4.
Vazquez – Great peripherals – K:BB and K:9 – having a lackluster year. Definite #3, possible #2.
Danks – Look out! I didn’t know where this came from, but he’s at a 2.67 ERA through 19 starts this season.
Floyd – Great prospect whom Philly had given up on.

Their bullpen additions have been fantastic.

Dotel: 2.98
Masset: 3.32
Thornton: 2.33
Logan: 3.00
Jenks: 1.95
Linebrink: 2.37
!!!! What is the beef, here? Linebrink has four years, sure, but it is a very deep bullpen to go with an above average rotation and a killer offense in a hitters’ park.

Definitely a top 10 most talented team in baseball. Possible top 7.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Someone is drinking the Chisox kool-aid

I’m not. Two words: fluke…unsustainable

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Buehrle

not an ace, more of a #3. Gives up way too many hits. I don’ think he’s any better than Joe Blanton.
Contreras is a good #5.
Vazquez would be the ace of this staff but luck has been hurting him.
Danks- I dont know anything about him honestly but he isnt this good.
and Floyd just isn’t that good. a 1.60 K/BB rate and a .226 BABIP don’t exactly portend succuess.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 18, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Buehrle

2000: 4.21
2001: 3.29
2002: 3.58
2003: 4.14
2004: 3.89
2005: 3.12
2006: 4.99
2007: 3.63
2008: 3.68

Career MLB ERA 3.79. 2006 is the obvious outlier.
2.08 BB9, 5.22 K9, 1.26 WHIP, about a 5:2 K:BB, which is very good.
In the prime of his career (29 years old), locked up for the next 4 years.
Meche’s 2007 ERA was 3.67, and I think the RR consensus was that he was a #2, borderline ace that year. Buehrle is a legitimate #2.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 7:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

It isn't all just a fluke this season

Maybe some of their success is, but I have a difficult time believing they are just one swirling cesspool of overachieve. Which players on that team have underachieved? In 2005, it was a fluke. In 2006, it was a fluke. In 2008, it’s still a fluke. I don’t think so. There is a definite pattern.

Contreras is aging, true, but their pitching coach is apparently helping him get things figured out this season….not tipping his pitches, etc.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

FIP

Buehrle has had only 3 seasons at or below 4.00 FIP.

He was a pretty good pitcher for awhile but nothing amazing. It is my belief that the Sox have really burned his arm out.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 18, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, the ERA-only analysis is pretty thin

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

How is it thin?

It’s over a 9 year time period? I understand the need for stats like FIP, K:BB, WHIP, K:9, etc. in pitcher analysis. But ERA is a quick and easy way to evaluate a pitcher’s success as long as it is over a significant time period? And I’m subconsciously taking things like defense and park factor into effect? How has Chicago’s defense been over the years? And I’m sure that ERA is waaaaaay down just because of the enormous pitchers’ park that is U.S. Cellular Field/Comiskey Park. Oh, wait a minute….

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Oops

Omit the question marks and replace them with periods. I wasn’t helping my argument, here.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

ERA is never sufficient on its own

And, particularly when his FIP has more often than not been over 4, it shows that ERA-only can be very misleading. And the ERA-only analysis of the rest of the Chisox pitching staff is even more thin.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

However, Buehrle's ERA has been consistent

over this time period. (Sans 2006…that being the obvious outlier).

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

And, yet again, you have to look beyond merely ERA

sigh

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 8:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

ERA is the direct result

In a way, he’s what we hope Banny will be. A pitcher that defies peripherals to post great results.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'm talking about specific players being flukes

I think you are just looking at their record and the stats of a handful of players. That’s not quite enough. Look deeper. This team is a fluke and they have sold out their future for one flukey season. Congrats, KW. I’m going to enjoy the next 3-5 years of White Sox suckitude.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Their team won't regress dramatically next season

With their payroll, they can afford the Free Agents we can’t. And they can now begin replenshing their farm system. By the time the draft class of 2008 is ready for MLB, they will be at or near the level they are at now. They can fill holes with Free Agents until then, or continue their amazingly shrewd acquisitions like Quentin, Ramirez, Jenks, etc.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

They won't regress next season?

You base that on what? With a payroll already over $100M, how can you say that they can afford big free agents? Because you know Reinsdorf is willing to spend even more? And you know this how? Their farm system stinks. They have needed to replenish it for a long time and they haven’t. They only way they can replenish it is slowly through the draft or by trading established major leaguers. They won’t be doing the latter, as KW has sold out to “win now.” They are in big trouble in the near future. Big trouble, because KW has had more bad deals than “shrewed acquisitions.”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 8:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

The White Sox' situation right now

is an awful lot similar to the Tigers’ situation. Think about that. Many of the players on this current 25-man (White Sox) roster have been shrewd and excellent acquisitions by the G.M.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

A $100M payroll can keep just about any team in contention

The pitching carried them in 2005 and proved itself to be flukey in the following years. Now flukey pitching from bad pitchers like Contreras and Floyd is carrying them. It won’t last. Maybe it will last this season, but not beyond. They simply aren’t good. Thome and Konerko are on the downhill side of their career with recurring injury problems. Crede will be gone to free agency. Their success this year is mostly a fluke and they’ll prove that next year. The Quentin trade was a good one. It really remains to be seen how good Ramirez is (and he’s likely 30+ years old).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

The American League Central - a buzzsaw division.

As Royals fans, we keep telling ourselves the White Sox are this lackluster, overachieving, house-of-cards ballclub with an idiotic G.M. and manager. However, they are much, much, much more than that. Why do we tell ourselves these things? To make us feel more comfortable about the insanely competitive division in which we play. In fact, it’s the best division in baseball, all things considered (eptitude of ballclubs, payrolls, etc.) 4 legitimately well-run teams and 1 team on its way up (us).

Swisher provides an awesome OBP and 30 HR power. Trust me…he is way more than a .236/.352/.403 hitter. Plenty of teams have old hitters like Thome. The Red Sox? Yankees? Cubs? (Well…they did in 2003). Each of those are dynamic teams with fantastic offenses.

Alex Ramirez is over 30? Is that based on fact? They fired their ex-scouting director (I believe) last year, and that alone is a step up, as they produced almost nothing from 1998-2004.

I have a difficult time believing Dye, Thome, Quentin, Ramirez, Cabrera, Contreras, et all will all nosedive next season.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 7:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

they all did last season

cabrera excluded

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 18, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Per Ken Tremendous of Fire Joe Morgan...

A sabermetrician and frequent and outspoken critic of Williams and the White Sox’ way of handling their ballclub:

“Kenny Williams has certainly done his homework this season.”

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 7:45 PM EDT up 0 recs

My analysis about the White Sox is about how good they really are and have been

It’s about more than looking at their W-L record.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:55 PM EDT up 0 recs

They are a first-place club

They won the World Series in 2005, and almost won the division in 2006 and 2003. They were slightly above average in 2004 and below average in 2007.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, KW has gotten a team with a payroll in the top third (even better than that now)

...into contention on a fairly regular basis. Am I supposed to be impressed by that? I think the analysis should go more than a little deeper than that.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 8:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

They're contenders

What more do you want? .700+ baseball? I’m not arguing that Kenny Williams is in fact the best G.M. in baseball. But he definitely deserves applause for assembling this year’s squad, as well as the squads of 2005 and 2006.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up 0 recs

He's a poor GM, and I think that's pretty obvious if you closely analyze the organization and his moves over the years

It’s pretty easy to be in contention with a $100M+ payroll. He deserves credit for the good moves and blame for the bad moves. And we need to recognize flukes for what they are, no?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 8:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, as long as their payroll is $100+M

And it will be, given their committed owner, then can we expect them to remain in contention? And I don’t think they are just going to keel over and die in the FYP drafts of 08, 09, 10, etc.

Dye, Thome, and Quentin would have to have pretty steep drops next season to be below average. Pretty. Steep.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, they'll stay in the 75 to 90 win range

And some people will give KW a lot of credit for keeping them in contention with a $100M+ payroll, which is extremely easy.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 8:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

Think Thome and Dye aren't declining?

Are you kidding? I mean really, is this a joke? Are you familiar with their ages and the decline curve?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 8:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yes

I know their stories, their ages, etc. I don’t follow the MLB as closely as a BP expert would, but I’m aware that they are declining. But plenty of players today – Thomas, Griffey, Jeter – can maintain production of years’ past well into their 30’s. Past 35, even. Proper conditioning, IMO, has led players to more prolonged careers than years’ past, especially pitchers.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Griffey

I meant to emphasize that he can still be an above-league average player. Thomas hasn’t been the player he used to be, of course. But these are both still useful, toward-the-middle-of-the-order/above average players.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

But really

neither is at their peak anymore.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 18, 2008 8:27 PM EDT up 0 recs

And no one should expect any player to beat the decline curve

It happens, but they are exceptional occurrences. Players their age decline, and the decline gets greater every year after 33.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 8:28 PM EDT up 0 recs

I just don't expect

Dye and Thome to be .230/.300/.380 next season.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

Neither do I

but they’re still hardly to be counted on to match this year’s production.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 18, 2008 8:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Re: the decline phase

Several thoughts:

1. As I mentioned previously, I firmly believe we are going to see players maintain health well into their 30’s, with the advancements in training that have occurred in baseball since the 1980s, and given how physically strong players are in the 2000’s compared to even the late 1980s.

2. Pitchers’ IP and workloads are now specialized, and limited strongly. No coincidence that Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Moyer, Rogers, Wells, etc. lasted well into their 40’s.

3. I think players’ contracts are weighed heavily when judging a player. A .260/.320/.400 shortstop making $400K-$2MM is heralded, while a .260/.320/.400 shortstop at age 30 making $9-12MM just….sucks.

This ‘decline phase’ is drastically overrated, in my opinion. Dye and Thome have continued production well into their 30’s.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

No

Of course not.

Griffey and Thomas aren’t 180 OPS+ players, anymore.

See my post, below. The decline phase is overrated, IMO. Sheffield and Thomas are two players that have maintained strong production well into their 30’s, although they are both now a bit injury prone.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

And look at the ages of the middle of

the Boston Red Sox’ lineup.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

What

you mean the HoF clearly past his prime and the guy who hasn’t played in a month due to a nagging injury?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 18, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah

Two still awesomely productive hitters.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

By the way,

this has been a spirited argument. I’m not trying to be a jackass, be rude, or belittle NYRoyal….I’m just saying how I truly feel.

I just sense a little bias because they are, in fact, the White Sox.

The Nation at large.

by Royals Nation on Jul 18, 2008 8:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Guillen out with back spasms

Apparently the days off weren’t quite enough.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AvACHXhKpAulZzpxvm.2_x0RvLYF?slug=ap-royals-guillen&prov=ap&type=lgns

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 18, 2008 7:24 PM EDT 0 recs

It's crazy how

“The Mexecutioner” has really caught on. It started as a blog thing and now it’s everywhere, T-shirts and the like. Joel Goldberg just called him that in the pregame show.

by I need more Esteban on Jul 18, 2008 7:31 PM EDT 0 recs