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International Signing Day

Today is the day when teams can begin signing 16 year old Latin players, and it appears that this year there will be more cash flying around than ever before.  Michael Inoa, the top prospect this year, has reportedly been given a bonus of $4.25mm by Oakland, which almost doubles the previous bonus record for a player.

As for the Royals, it sounds like we continue to take steps forward in the international market.  We have been rumored as one of the main suitors for Adis Portillo, the 2nd best Latin pitcher and 3rd overall prospect, who should command a seven figure bonus.  Also, many publications have mentioned us as "new money" players on the Latin scene, along with teams such as Oakland, San Diego, and Cincinnati. 

Personally, I'd love to see us steal one of the top 10-15 players, simply because of the signal that it would send to Latin America and the rest of MLB that we are ready to take the next organizational step forward.

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Adis Portillo

Here is in 2003. At the LITTLE LEAGUE WORLD SERIES!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2008 10:34 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The kid screams grit.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2008 10:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He is grinder personified

“The Human Cheesesteak,” they call him.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 10:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One thing that is difficult in evaluating the quality of the Royals Latin American signings this year
Personally, I’d love to see us steal one of the top 10-15 players

The problem is that no one knows who the top 10-15 Latin American players are. ESPN has their ranking and BA has theirs, but this is the ultimate crap shoot. Those sources have limited knowledge on any of those players and judging the upside of 16 year olds is very difficult. If the Royals don’t sign any player who is on an ESPN or BA ranking, that doesn’t necessarily mean they didn’t get some of the better prospects. It’s all about how good of a job your scouts do at identifying talent. We won’t really know if they did a good job or not until years from now. The only way they can lose is not to play at all.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 11:49 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The only way they can lose is not to play at all.

Do you write commercials for the Kansas Lottery?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2008 11:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It was more of a "War Games" reference

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 11:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How about a nice game of chess?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2008 12:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I prefer Global Thermo-nuclear War

But that’s just me.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 12:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If either of you play
Global Thermo-Nuclear War Chess on yahoo, you should look me up.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 12:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I suck at chess

I know the rules and how the pieces move, so I’m just good enough to keep the game going for about 10 moves.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 12:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I never would have guessed.

No sarcasm. It’s a fun game.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 2, 2008 1:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well of course not

but the same could be said about the MLB draft, in that no one knows who will end up developing into the best players. That said, there is clearly a group of players who are thought to be the best prospects at this stage of development.

Signing a player that is thought to be a top ten Latin 16 year old would be a coup for this organization, considering our lack of activity in the international activity. It would give the franchise additional credibility when dealing with players and buscones in the future, and would send a clear signal to the baseball world that we are going to be a player in the international market, which is what I originally said.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2008 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What is true of the amateur draft is triply true of L.A. signings
That said, there is clearly a group of players who are thought to be the best prospects at this stage of development.

I don’t think that there is a “clear group” at all. These are the youngest, most speculative of players. And these are the ones that ESPN and BA would have the least information about. And there are undoubtedly good ones that aren’t on most people’s radar. I wouldn’t be surprised if the best L.A. signing turns out to be someone who wasn’t on anyone’s top whatever list.
Signing a player that is thought to be a top ten Latin 16 year old would be a coup for this organization, considering our lack of activity in the international activity

First, Rany has said that the Royals Latin American spending last year was 7th in MLB. I don’t think that is a lack of international activity. Second, what is important is that the Royals sign the players they think are best, regardless of whether that is consistent with ESPN or BA’s rankings (based on the relatively little information they have on these kids).
but the same could be said about the MLB draft, in that no one knows who will end up developing into the best players.

While the quality of amateur draftees is speculative, we at least know a lot more about these kids and they are almost all 18-22. We (including ESPN and BA) know a lot less about the Latin American kids and they are even more speculative at ages 16-17.
It would give the franchise additional credibility when dealing with players and buscones in the future, and would send a clear signal to the baseball world that we are going to be a player in the international market, which is what I originally said.

What they need to do is thoroughly mind Latin America for as much talent as they can find. They should spend a lot of money and get the players they think are best. Whether or not this is consistent with players on a ranking system is irrelevant. The Royals don’t need to sign any particular ranked player to signal anything. They just need to continue and perhaps improve what they did last year in signing many Latin American players and spending a good deal of money. Being active and spending the money is what will help the Royals in their Latin American dealings.

Relying on these ranking systems for knowing which players are really the best and trusting that they know of all of the good Latin American FA prospects just doesn’t make sense.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 12:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tend to agree

When dealing with a crapshoot like this, perhaps quantity is better than perceived quality.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2008 12:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don’t think that there is a "clear group" at all. These are the youngest, most speculative of players. And these are the ones that ESPN and BA would have the least information about.

ESPN and BA don’t just pull these names out of a hat, they get their information from scouting directors and area scouts. So in essence you are arguing that the MLB teams don’t have a clue about these players, which I would seriously disagree with.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the best L.A. signing turns out to be someone who wasn’t on anyone’s top whatever list.

Maybe, maybe not. As I said in the previous post, baseball scouting is an inexact science. There have been times where the top signing ends up being the top player, and other times it doesn’t happen. However, this is similar to the MLB Draft, considering that the best player from a respective draft is very rarely the top player drafted.

First, Rany has said that the Royals Latin American spending last year was 7th in MLB. I don’t think that is a lack of international activity. Second, what is important is that the Royals sign the players they think are best, regardless of whether that is consistent with ESPN or BA’s rankings (based on the relatively little information they have on these kids).

I realize you claim Rany has said this, but again I’m almost certain he is confusing this with how much we spent on last year’s amateur draft, where we were 7th. I haven’t seen any list ranking last year’s total international bonuses, and I find it almost impossible to believe we went from essentially last to 7th in one year. That said, we did sign some nice players and made a good step forward.

On your second point, just like the BA and ESPN’s draft previews, they are getting this information from MLB scouts and using the overall information to develop rankings. Sure, Rene Francisco should sign the best players, but it sounds like in general MLB teams feel these are the top players. How would you react if the Royals took someone like Lance Lynn at #3 overall in this year’s draft, and then said they were just taking who they thought was the best guy available? You would be pissed, and rightfully so, because no one had him as a #3 overall pick. Thus, why are you just dismissing the consensus on this year’s international players?

They should spend a lot of money and get the players they think are best. Whether or not this is consistent with players on a ranking system is irrelevant. The Royals don’t need to sign any particular ranked player to signal anything.

I get what you’re saying, and I hope you understand that I’m not implying we should sign players simply because of where BA ranks them on a list. However, as I mentioned earlier, these lists are cultivated from discussions with all MLB teams. If you’re going to tell me we have a completely unique list that doesn’t include any of the players everyone else is talking about, then I would respond by saying we need a complete revamp of what we’re doing down there. Just because you and I don’t know these players by heart, doesn’t mean the international scouting directors don’t.

Listen, I’m not sayinig we should put all our eggs in one basket and go for one big signing – quantity is the key here. However, adding one impressive signing to a group like we signed last year would be huge, and signals are certainly important in this area of scouting. Top international players and their buscones want to sign with the top teams in the international space, not just random teams that have little history in the area. This is why many players don’t always take the highest offer, but instead sign with teams that have strong roots in their respective country.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2008 1:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eh?
I really don’t see scouts just volunteering info on these pitchers to ESPN or BA.

So how exactly do you think it works? Do you think Jim Callis flies down to the DR to personally watch a kid like Adis Portillo throw a bullpen session?

Sure, everyone has stories about low-profile guys they’ve stashed away, and that’s what organizations SHOULD do. But based on what we know right now, the lists BA and ESPN have acquired are based on talks with every scout and director they can get on the phone with.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I bet you believe that stock tipsters

clue you in on all the good buys, too.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 2, 2008 4:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What we know
Sure, everyone has stories about low-profile guys they’ve stashed away, and that’s what organizations SHOULD do. But based on what we know right now, the lists BA and ESPN have acquired are based on talks with every scout and director they can get on the phone with.

Those rankings are based on the information that scouts and directors gave them. Does this include information from every scout and every team’s scouting director? Almost certainly not. Did those scouts and directors which talked to them give them every piece of information they had on those players and every name they thought was good? Certainly not.

If an organization had a name that most people didn’t know, or had a piece of important information on a player that most people didn’t have, would it be in that organizations interest to disclose that information?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 4:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So

Information is useless unless you get feedback from every single insider’s opinion? Do you disregard draft rankings as well?

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2008 4:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, but the quality of rankings is dependent on the breadth and depth of information gathering

And, by all accounts, information on Latin American players is much less deep and much less broad than for potential domestic draftees. So you can’t really hang your hat on those rankings.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 4:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not true

Information is “much less deep and much less broad” to casual fans, but teams have international scouts, international directors, multi-million dollar training facilities in the DR and Venezuela, etc. Do you really believe intelligent GMs like Billy Beane and Theo Epstein are throwing millions and millions of dollars at these kids without knowing much about them? If so, then I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2008 5:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

As long as you have your fingers in your ears

ignoring the fact that what the teams have does not equate to what the teams share with ESPN/BA, I think the more appropriate closing sentence to your post would be “Then I guess we’ll have to agree that I’m continuing to argue this point because being wrong on the internet is tantamount to kicking puppies.”

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 2, 2008 5:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL

And the three musketeers continue to fight the good fight! I fully expect to see NHZ come and tell me how wrong I am next, as the blogosphere’s equivalent of the good ‘ol boy network strikes again.

BA has been at this for decades now, and they have deep contacts in every organization. They aren’t always correct, but you’re extremely naive if you believe they don’t have a strong grasp on who the top international prospects are after following this class and speaking with insiders for the last year. Sure, each team is trying to hide some players, but the top guys don’t fall between the cracks near as often as you seem to think they do.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2008 5:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm naive?

Let’s see. I think that there are stud players that a scout’s fingered and the organization’s keeping quiet about; you think that there’s NO WAY this can happen.

Who’s naive again?

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 2, 2008 9:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BA and ESPN find out about all of them! No really good players stay unknown. BA misses nothing.

The top 15 players list tells you all you need to know about the best L.A. players. It is a thorough and exhaustive list. No one falls through the cracks.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 11:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reading comprehension

I said:

Sure, each team is trying to hide some players, but the top guys don’t fall between the cracks near as often as you seem to think they do.

You respond with:

I think that there are stud players that a scout’s fingered and the organization’s keeping quiet about; you think that there’s NO WAY this can happen.

Ridiculous exaggerations are always the best way to support a point. Kudos!

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 3, 2008 10:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We're pointing out that you are greatly underestimating how many players fall through the cracks

...and greatly overestimating how much information BA and ESPN have.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 3, 2008 1:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good lord
And the three musketeers continue to fight the good fight!

When three intelligent people disagree with you, it’s always best to dismiss them as “the three musketeers.”

Maybe we just genuinely disagree with you. Maybe we understand that there is less information out there about Latin American players than U.S.A. players. If you don’t get that, then there’s just no talking to you. Prospect guys like you often overrate prospect information. Not understanding the limitations of our information on Latin American prospects makes certain that you are going to inaccurately analyze the Royals work in Latin America. Continuing to say that the Royals really need to sign someone who ESPN or BA has ranked is amazingly myopic.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 11:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When did I say

“we really need to sign someone” off those lists? I’ve said ALL ALONG it would be nice if we did, as it would send a signal to the Latin market and the rest of baseball that we have arrived on the international scene, plus we’d be getting a valuable prospect as well.

Your incessant (yes, I said the magic incessant word….) arguing of this simple point makes you look like the stereotypical stat geek who can crunch numbers but can’t see the big picture.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 3, 2008 10:09 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think you know what

NYRoyal actually looks like.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 3, 2008 10:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You claim signing a ranked guy is important. I say it is not important.

Your incessant arguing that ESPN and BA’s ranking systems know about all of the good L.A. players and know how good they are makes you sound like a prospect geek who swallows everything BA trowels out and assumes they know just about everything. Assuming this for Latin America is ludicrous.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 3, 2008 1:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No
And the three musketeers continue to fight the good fight! I fully expect to see NHZ come and tell me how wrong I am next, as the blogosphere’s equivalent of the good ‘ol boy network strikes again.

Some of you really know how to take the fun out of a baseball discussion, and this is a textbook example of how to do so. Despite your snide assumption, I actually have no opinion on this subject strong enough to come in and “tell you how wrong you are.” FWIW, not that anyone really likes to listen to me when I say this it seems, if you have a reasonable argument and disagree with me, I’m not going to tell you you’re wrong. I’m going to support whatever my contention is. Or waste people’s time calling them “the good old boys network” or the “three musketeers.” If you can’t deal with people disagreeing with you, good luck.

NYRoyal, jonfmorse, and myself are strongly opinionated. Out of the baseball on this blog who are likely to disagree with any given argument, we’re probably in the top five. If you seriously think we agree on everything, you’ve got no basis for that. jonfmorse and NYRoyal have been sparring over Aviles, NYRoyal and I had a cage fight over Gator’s true hitting level last year, and a hundred other examples. If you want to be taken seriously in a debate with someone, stay on topic instead of calling out your opponents for having…surprise! A different opinion than your own.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 3, 2008 9:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

it's a matter of degree
ESPN and BA don’t just pull these names out of a hat, they get their information from scouting directors and area scouts. So in essence you are arguing that the MLB teams don’t have a clue about these players, which I would seriously disagree with.

I’m not saying that ESPN, BA and MLB teams know nothing about these kids. I’m saying that don’t know much about these kids, certainly a lot less than they know about potential draftees. It seems like if you see a list of names with numbers beside them then you assume those really are the top 10, 15, whatever Latin American players. There mere fact that someone put together a list does not mean that such list is accurate or exhaustive. The facts remain:
1. These are the most speculative and hard to evaluate of all players because they are only 16 or 17
2. These are the most speculative and hard to evaluate of all players because there is less information on them than potential draftees in the U.S.A.
3. There is a huge body of potential L.A. signees and just because ESPN or BA learned of some players does not mean that these are necessarily the best players out there.

You are putting far too much weight in the ESPN and BA brand names and assuming that they have a great depth and breadth of information on all Latin American players. It’s just not true.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 2, 2008 4:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm still confused as to why you're arguing

No one has said these lists are 100% accurate and that each player’s MLB career will coincide exactly with where they were ranked as a 16 year old. However, this is all the information we have at this point, and the info is based on talks with baseball insiders who do have more information than common fans. Completely disregarding these lists is as stupid as thinking they are totally unfallible.

Finally, my point remains that signing a top player would be huge in helping us making inroads with future Latin players. Players routinely turn down higher bonus offers to sign with a team they or their busone is more comfortable with based on past dealings with top players.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2008 4:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Latest Updates

Padres signed Adis Portillo for $2.2mm and Domorono for $1.2mm.

Reds offered Inoa $5mm and a big league contract, while Rangers went up to a $5.2mm bonus on a standard minor league deal, but Inoa stuck with the A’s.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 2, 2008 1:39 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Quantity over quality

“When dealing with a crapshoot like this, perhaps quantity is better than perceived quality.”

Hence the awesomeness of the fact that we have an additional minor league affiliate. More room to stock up on L.A. dudes.

I follow the Tao of Steve (Balboni)

by jackie ballgame on Jul 2, 2008 1:53 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Word on the street

San Diego had a boffo day signing some top guys.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2008 2:19 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No word

Nothing new on us signing anyone?

by cfizzle on Jul 2, 2008 4:05 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We'll find out soon

Probably later tonight or in the next couple days.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 2, 2008 4:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Its not a two day event like the draft

I think last year they didn’t reveal some of the signings until September.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 2, 2008 5:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Some, yes

But the higher profile signings are normally known right away. We knew about the 100k+ signings very soon after the signing period started.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 2, 2008 5:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Info is out there

I’ve received word on a few signings.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 3, 2008 10:01 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Do share!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 3, 2008 10:04 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Top signing up to this point is Jerico Blanco, toolsy OF from Venezuela. $300K bonus.

Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club

by eazyb81 on Jul 3, 2008 10:15 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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