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Monday Notes

Tiny by loyal2sdad on

A few interesting comments today:

Despite the general (mis) perception that the Royals have amassed some improved pitching, but the offense needs lots of work:

Royals now 11th in the AL in runs scored, and are 35 runs scored below league avg.

Royals now 12th in the AL in runs allowed, and are 38 runs allowed below league avg.

Apparently, there is still much work to do on BOTH sides of the game, and about an even amount of improvement is needed in BOTH.

What is the culprit here? Well, the starters are about two-thirds of a run below league avg in ERA, while the bullpen is right at league avg. (If I wasn't getting so tired of posting it, this is where I'd pine for Soria to the rotation next season).

Aviles VORP update: Now up to THIRD among all ML rookies, despite half the playing time, and despite VORP being a "counting" stat. In addition, he is now firmly ensconsed in SECOND among Royals position players in VORP. Please, Ryan and Splitt, can we put the TPJ debate to bed for good? Seriously, how in the world could ANYBODY think shortstop is even remotely a question mark for now?

More on Aviles - does anybody else realize that his 850 OPS, if qualified, would LEAD THE ENTIRE AMERICAN LEAGUE AMONG SHORTSTOPS? I honestly think the entire offensive improvement we have seen the last two months is attributable to this change - and it makes me wonder what could happen if Gload were replaced with a real first baseman too.

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More pitching analysis needed

loyals2sdad, your points are well-taken, especially in conjunction with RR’s first-hald retrospectives of the roster changes regarding pitching and hitting. There have been other relevant posts as well.

However, without digging it up, with regarding to pitching (it could be done for hitting, too, I guess, but one thing at a time) shouldn’t we be looking at something more “advanced” like FIP compared to last year, or something like that? From there, we could go on to try to evaluate how much improvement/decline there has been, and then if we can expect the Royals staff to improve. I don’t know, but it seems like there has been some stuff in earlier debates on these topics. Maybe, for example, the Royals pitchers have had a higher FIP or xFIP than 11th, but have had bad luck with singles with runners on. That might indicate that other teams have been relatively lucky with singles with RISP. Also, although its more difficult, maybe there have been defensive problems for the Royals independent of pitching (Remember, Aviles might hit better, but he’s also costing the Royals 2-3 runs every game he starts at SS over TPJ!111 Just ask the Royals’ color men…).

Like i said, one could do the same thing with hitting, but I’m less likely to doubt that the Royals have a further way to go with that.

So, while I agree that it’s that the Royals need to do more than just add a hitter and wait for the young guys to get a year older and they’ll be just fine with that staff, I’m wondering if there isn’t more analysis that can be done to show more precisely where the pitching staff, defense, and hitting is. Runs scored might provide some clues, but not the explanation and proper measurement.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 2:28 PM EDT   0 recs

+1

Not having time to dig too deeply, I just looked at BB and SO and in both of those categories the Royals are about average (8th in AL in SO, and 6th fewest BB). This is a significant improvement over years past.

They are being hurt some by giving up the fifth most HR in AL, a defensive efficiency that ranks 24th in all of baseball and probably a bit of bad luck. Hopefully, these things will work themselves out in years to come, but just looking at the system as a whole you have to be somewhat encouraged about the future after the 3 historically awful pitching staffs of ‘04 – ‘06.

My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!

by Royal Kingdom on Jul 21, 2008 2:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+2

The Royals pitching is pretty good. Not much to complain about there. The Royals have a very solid 1-2-3 in the rotation with Greinke, Meche and Hochevar. Bannister is at last a good #4. For the near future, we’re in good shape at #5 with Davies or Rosa. And we’ve got excellent pitching in the 4 most important bullpen slots (Soria, R.Ramirez, Mahay, Nunez). On top of that, the Royals have several good pitching prospects in the pipeline. The Royals really don’t have much work to do with regard to pitching.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rosa is a wildcard...

he could be a huge asset for the big league club, or he could be … another guy

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2008 2:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He's a wildcard in that he's a prospect and no prospect is a sure thing

But he’s got a few important assets:

1. Great stuff
2. Great control
3. Great minor league performance

That’s a pretty good combination. While every prospect has a good chance to fail, it’s hard to come up with a good reason to not expect success for Rosa. The only real question in my mind is how much success. At worst, I think he’s a good front of the bullpen reliever. And the ceiling is much higher than that.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 2:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm really starting to fall for

Rosa. I can’t wait to see him in KC on a regular basis.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 21, 2008 3:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

And I think he’ll be here sooner than I had originally thought. He looks close to ready.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2008 3:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I was a little surprised to see that Rany hoped he'd be ready for an extended audition in August

But it really does look like he’s ready.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 3:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

one of the best prospects

no one ever talks about

striking out nearly a batter per inning
excellent walk rate
excellent at keeping the ball in the park
great ground ball rate

you have to love this guy

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Jul 21, 2008 3:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

One thing about pitching and hitting

I know I’m echoing some of RR’s concerns from his retrospectives, but I do mean this as a question. I realize that it’s a question that can only be answered with speculation, but here goes:

Granting, for the moment, that the Royals are set (or close to being) now and in the near future for pitching, how deep are they really if they’re going to have to trade some of the “currency” for hitters? How many “hitters” are they away from having a contender-level offense in the next coupel of years? Assuming (I think accurately) that there isn’t going to be enough money to sign enough hitters to get where they need to be (1 of Adam Dunn/Burrell/whoever let’s now debate the “who” right now, it would be an improvement, but 1 seems to be the limit for next year, at least), do the Royals have the “pitching chips” sufficient to trade for the hitters they need that will be ready or not washed up when they need to try and contend, say, in 2010. And to do so without swinging the pendulum the other way…

I think it’s a fair question.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 3:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Right-o

But the real question is this:

It is “pitching staffs” or “pitching staves.” I like the latter.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 3:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That's A Barrel

Full of pitchers.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 21, 2008 4:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Trades
do the Royals have the "pitching chips" sufficient to trade for the hitters they need that will be ready or not washed up when they need to try and contend, say, in 2010

It’s a fair question. If we’re talking about trading for MLB-ready prospects, then I think we do have enough pitching chips (of course I’m very roughly estimating here). There’s a lot of pitching depth throughout the minors. We can afford to trade more than a few pitchers. The combination of young players developing, FA acquisitions and pitching-for-hitting trades could/would/should definitely put us into contention in 2010.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 3:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Batman Batman Batman Batman

Aviles continues to impress. He keeps up his current body of work and youneverknow…he might even win over ol’ stick in the mud me.

I’m not sure how much of a misconception there is about hitting vs. pitching, loyal2sdad, in that I think the reason a lot of us think the pitching staff is pretty well set for the future is because we have three starters underachieving their FIP-PERA right now.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 21, 2008 2:51 PM EDT   0 recs

And
I think the reason a lot of us think the pitching staff is pretty well set for the future is because we have three starters underachieving their FIP-PERA right now.

And because most of the pitching staff is young and should continue to impove.

Greinke 24
Hochevar 24
Davies 24
Soria 24
Nunez 24
R.Ramirez 26
Bannister 27
Meche 29

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 2:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yep

Though I don’t hold out much hope for Davies, the rest of the pitchers on the list could very well be better next year.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 21, 2008 3:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Did you read the royal.com headlines?

“Davis working on control.” That’s all I need to hear. I’m sold.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 3:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh, ye

of the easily-reassured-brain.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 21, 2008 3:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Davies

I don’t hold out hope for him being a good MLB SP. But I don’t think it is unreasonable to think that he is and will be a competent #5 SP. As you know, you don’t have to be very good to be a competent fifth starter.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 3:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Just throwing it out there

Even with some trades, I think it’s pretty likely the Royals may, even after improving their offense sufficiently, need to be a pitching-heavy team, just cause they can and because there isn’t much hitting in the higher minors at this point. So their overall staff might need to be a little better… Maybe they’d have an easier time improving #4 and #5 through their system to make some of the difference…

Ah, forget it if that doesn’t make any sens.e

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 3:46 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There's nothing wrong with being a pitching-heavy team

What wins games is having a good run differential. One can do that by a balance of run scoring and limiting runs allowed, or by going very heavy with one or the other. I don’t see Dayton Moore turning the Royals into a team of sluggers. But I’m sure he understand that this teams needs more hitting than it currently has. So I think he can take some of the surplus pitching in the system and trade it for some hitters, making this a pitching-heavy team with enough hitting to contend.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 3:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I knew it didn't make sense

I personally love balls flying out of ballparks (well, when it’s the team I’m rooting for fueling the flights). What I meant was that even given shrewd signings and trades, I still think the Royals are going to have to probably lean on their pitching a bit when they finally contend. It was more about how far their offense needs to go. On that assumption, I’m saying that they’re pitchers need to be better than “above-average” or whatever the “contending level” of pitching is, since I think their hitting might fall just short of that. assuming that, the middle and back of the rotation would seem to be more within reach for the Royals to improve. Sort of like the Blue Jays rotation was when it was healthy this year (and with better hitting than that). Hallady,Marcum, McGowan were a hell of a 1-2-3 punch, and even with Burnett sucking it up, he’s not a bad #4. Yeah, I know Litsch has been a lucky #5, but I think I’m being a little more clear.

That, as well as the need to trade some starters (at whatever level) also back up the “Soria needs to get a shot at the rotation” folks, like you, me, and all good-hearted people.

(Yes, I love baiting)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 4:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

tangential

but I really hope Meche, Greinke and Hochevar all get shut down early this season…

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2008 4:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There's always the J. P. Ricciardi method

“Hey, I know we’re not really contending, but I’m worried I might get fired, so let’s see if Halladay can throw 23 complete games this season. That means he’ll be able to throw 75 more than even that next year!”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 4:25 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

They won't

At least that’s my guess.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 4:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Will you extend the same perspective to the hitters?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 3:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

well, we're using league ranks, aren't we?

its already built in

i think most of the enthusiasm for the pitching upgrades have been ERA driven

by royalsreview on Jul 21, 2008 3:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Let's FIP

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 3:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Team FIP is a shade worse than average (0.06 runs)

AL Average FIP = 4.13
Royals Team FIP = 4.19 (10 out of 14 in AL)

The pitchers are not solely to blame for the runs allowed performance. According to the Hardball Times defensive metrics (Plus/Minus and RZR/OOZ), the Royals defense has been one of the worst in the AL

Plus/Minus Fielding Plays Below Average
Royals -27 (second to last in AL)
AL Average 0
What this metric means is that the Royals defense overall has made 27 fewer outs than the average AL defense.

Revised Zone Rating (RZR)
Royals .824 (tied for third to last in AL)
AL Average .830
What this metric means is that for balls hit within the general range of a league average fielder, the Royals have performed slightly below average.

Out of Zone Outs (OOZ)
Royals 202 (second to last in AL)
AL Average 242
What this means is that for balls hit outside the general range of a league average fielder, the Royals defense has made 40 fewer outs than the average AL defense.

by Gopherballs on Jul 21, 2008 4:15 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i don't know how the defense is so bad

with gload, pena, gordon and grudz getting majority of time in infield, and ddj, teahen and guillen in the OF

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Jul 22, 2008 12:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Because they don't cover as much ground as we'd like (particularly out of their defensive zone)

Teahen hasn’t taken a step forward defensively this year. Guillen has very limited range. Grudz’s range is still good, but shrinking. Aviles’s range is limited. Gordon is pretty sure handed on balls hit near him, but he doesn’t get much outside of his range.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 12:59 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You've apparently missed the fact

that no SS in the American League who’s played as many innings as Aviles has thus far has a higher RZR than he does. And his out-of-range plays compare with Pena’s, who allegedly has the best range since Ozzie Smith or some nonsense.

I think you’re going to have to let go of this “his range is limited” meme, because there’s absolutely no evidence to support it. I mean, you may be right, but at this point all the actual evidence is the exact opposite of your insistence.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 22, 2008 1:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Instead of arguing about it now, let's just see what the stats say at the end of the season

I’d also like to see what his UZR is. I think that is a much better range metric than RZR.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 1:12 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Fair enough

Although I would like to note that this isn’t a case of “see, he’s a little better than this.” I mean, right now, he has the highest rating in the entire league, and the sample size is sufficient enough that it’s not entirely flukey.

Which is to say, he’s probably not even excellent, much less the most rangy SS in baseball, but I think that even taking into account sample size and RZR’s limitations, it’s good evidence that he’s got decent range after all.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 22, 2008 3:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That, of course, depends on what means by "decent"

Here’s the problem. Scouts have consistently said that his defense is poor for a SS. And defense isn’t like hitting. Hitting skills are fairly speculative. It’s always hard to say how well hitting skills that show themselves in the minors will translate to the majors. But defense is more constant. If you can show great range in the minors, you can show great range in the majors. If your defense is limited in the minors, it will be limited in the majors. And you don’t see players all of the sudden blossom defensively like you do with hitting. So, has he suddenly changed and become a different player defensively? Or were all of the scouts somehow misreading his defense?

Before I believe that all of those scouts simply missed the boat on his defensive skills, I’m going to need to see a larger sample size and a better metric. I think the jury is still out on whether he’s even an average defensive SS. My amateur scouting eye and the scouting reports from the minors says he’s below average defensively at that position. Not horrible, not even bad. But below average. Limited range, a somewhat iffy throwing arm and not the best defensive instincts.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 3:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

In regard to the instincts

we are in complete agreement. Indeed, every play I’ve seen that he’s “missed” has been an instinct play rather than a range play or a hands play.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 22, 2008 4:45 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

One other thing

The only other obvious poor plays he’s made have been throwing mistakes. He has had some throwing accuracy issues.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 4:51 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yep.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 22, 2008 12:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Aviles has a small sample size (86 plays) that is still well within the potentially fluky range
I mean, right now, he has the highest rating in the entire league, and the sample size is sufficient enough that it’s not entirely flukey.

The guys who have developed the advanced defensive metrics based on actual play-by-play data generally agree that the best measurement of defense requires three seasons worth of data (for a SS, that is in the neighborhood of 1,200 plays). The basic idea is that even bad fielders make the vast majority of plays, so more data is needed to differentiate between the good, the bad, and the fluky. A half season of data should give a rough idea about a player’s defense, but even a full season is not immune from flukes.

Avlies is only at 86 plays, which is the equivalent of a batter with less than 100 plate appearances. The small sample size results, however, are positive so far in that his RZR is quite good (he is fielding the balls near him well) but he is not getting many out of zone outs (his OOZ percentage is on par with Jeter). In comparison, Pena in his small sample size had a big drop in his RZR but was still getting a high rate of OOZ.

by Gopherballs on Jul 22, 2008 1:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Side not on Pena and others

What does it mean when a player has a bad RZR and a high OOZ? That just seems odd to me. Sounds like one would prefer the other way around if there has to be a choice (obviously, one wants both to be high), but I’m not sure how the metrics interrlate as far as that goes.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 22, 2008 2:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What does it mean when a player has a bad RZR and a high OOZ?

I think that means that he’s muffing some easy plays while at the same time making some spectacular plays on balls most SS’s wouldn’t get to.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 2:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Right, but how should we evaluate that?

That’s what I should have said. Something like this: how should we weigh the spectacular plays against the easy plays he missed in determining whether the player is a good or bad defender?

Or, if we can’t establish that line, how should each be weighted in determining which of two players is the better defender, with one having a higher RZR and lower OOZ, and the other a higher OOZ, and a lower RZR.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 22, 2008 2:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes

The basic idea of RZR is to measure how well a fielder make plays on balls that someone at his position are expected to make.

This is a gross oversimplification (so apologies to the fine folks at THT), but RZR/OOZ uses historical batted ball data to divide the field into zones for each position based in which fielders have historically made plays (outs) on balls hit into that area of the field. RZR is the percentage of playable Balls in Zone (BIZ) that the fielder has converted into outs (Plays). OOZ is the number of outs made outside that zone.

For Pena, he has had 131 Balls in his Zone (BIZ) of which he converted 107 into outs (Plays), for a RZR of .817 (81.7% Balls in Zone have become Plays). In other words, Pena has made 81.7% of the plays expected for playable balls hit near him. Pena last year was at .848 last year over the full season, which was tied for fifth in the majors among qualifiers. His .817 this year would have been middle of the pack.

by Gopherballs on Jul 22, 2008 2:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

okay.... BUT

I already knew the gist of the stats themselves. My question was meant to be how they are to be weighted against each other in measuring a player’s overall defense.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 22, 2008 2:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That's a good question

If I had a good answer (or even a half-assed one), I’d give it to you. Unfortunately, I think we’re stuck with looking at the combination of metrics and doing our best with coming up a complete picture of a players’ defense, recognizing his strengths and weaknesses. A good defensive SS needs to do well (relative to other MLB SS’s) at handling more routine plays and more spectacular out-of-zone plays. He doesn’t have to be great at both, but needs to look pretty good in both metrics.

Ok, looks like I was able to come up with a half-assed answer (probably quarter-assed).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 22, 2008 2:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Compare with the other players at the same position over the last few years

Here is the article that THT links from its glossary entry for RZR.

Unfortunately, THT does not appear to have the average RZR/OOZ for each position linked. Looking at the qualifiers over the last few years at each position, however, gives you a pretty good idea of what is average. Also, the article linked above gives raw data numbers by position for partial 2007 season. By simply dividing the SS Plays Made (4,349 ) by SS Balls in Zone (5,281), we get an average SS RZR of .824. Eyeballing the SS results from the last few years, that looks pretty close to average. The article also provides a formula for converting them into a plays above average/plays below average (plus/minus) scale that other defensive metrics use.

by Gopherballs on Jul 22, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm a "low-church" stats guy

I’m not sure what RR (whom I go the phrase from) means by it, but when I say it, I mean that I like objective approaches, but I have to take more sophisticated observers word for what the best ones are. I guess RAA (Runs Above Average, right?) is considered another pretty good, and (as opposed to the RZR/OOZ quandry) “all-in-one” metric, right? For now, at least. I guess we could look at that. But, given Gordon’s defense this year as opposed to last, I didn’t need that added Gordon-related anxiety.

(Yes, i still believe in him… but sometimes I need to be a sheep and just read good news. The D doesn’t appear to be so great for Alex this year looking at RAA, if I understand it).

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 22, 2008 3:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

FRAA from Baseball Prospectus?

If you are talking about FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average) from BP, it is not very good because it does not use actual play by play data, which puts it in the same capsize-prone boat as Range Factor and Zone Rating. The BP writers seem embarassed to use it because they almost always also cite one of the better play by play metrics like UZR, PMR, Dewan’s Plus/Minus, or RZR. I think they keep using it to keep Clay Davenport happy.

Looking at all of the advance play by play metrics is the best course, but unfortunately, only RZR is readily available and updated during season.

I would not be too worried about Gordon’s defense at this point—fielders have slumps too, and the slumps will be magnified with smaller sample sizes. If you are looking at the leaders, keep in mind that Scott Rolen is on another planet with regard to RZR at 3B, as is Adrian Beltre with OOZ.

by Gopherballs on Jul 22, 2008 3:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll second

Gopherballs’s note on FRAA…BP clearly recognizes that they need to upgrade their system.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 22, 2008 7:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Those runs scored/allowed rankings

Are a bit disappointing. We are making strides with our pitching staff, but it shows we still have a long way to go before we can begin to think about contending.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2008 3:09 PM EDT   0 recs

Just got my Royals season ticket holder renovations update today

Lots of pics of the renovations including cool renderings of what the completions will look like. Of note, in one picture, they show the scoreboard with the Royals lineup. And guess who is pitching – JUSTIN HUBER!

Secret plot by Dayton Moore to reacquire our board favorite and turn him into a pitcher? I think the cat is out of the bag!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2008 3:54 PM EDT   0 recs

Two-way player!

He’s the new McCarty! Could make the 12 man pitching staff make sense, as well as providing 20-25 homers off the bench.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 4:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Given tonight's (last night's) game, this just got even more interesting

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 22, 2008 1:16 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll try tomorrow

It also has Reggie Sanders, Mike Sweeney, Tony Graffanino and Emil Brown in the lineup. Our 2009 lineup will be as awesome as our stadium!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 21, 2008 5:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks, gopherballs, for those stats

Reading them, however, is even more depressing. For example, we have actually IMPROVED this year in DER, but your numbers indicate that the defense is still fairly bad. Looking just at HRs allowed, we have only been outhomered by 11 on the road, but 46-26 at home. To me, that is an indictment of BOTH the hitters and the pitchers at home, considering the deep fences.

Intuitively, I sorta agree with those of you who view the pitching as much better positioned to improve in the future – but you know, we have plenty of young hitters in the everyday lineup, and I don’t read the same optimism about them as I read about the young pitchers going forward. Why is that?

So, Moore now needs to improve:

The rotation
The offense
The defense

Thankfully, the bullpen is average (based on ERA). I think it seems to be better than that to most of it, but the numbers don’t necessarily agree.

If this is all not just bad luck by the pitchers, then some of you seem to be advocating blowing up nearly the entire position roster completely, right? I mean, we all agree that the offense is below average, and if the same players are undermining the pitching staff to the point that they are turning a mediocre team into a 12th ranked ERA, then maybe we don’t have ANY position players worth keeping…

by loyal2sdad on Jul 21, 2008 5:25 PM EDT   0 recs

Intuitively, I sorta agree with those of you who view the pitching as much better positioned to improve in the future – but you know, we have plenty of young hitters in the everyday lineup, and I don’t read the same optimism about them as I read about the young pitchers going forward. Why is that?

I expect young players with a lot of talent to improve significantly, including Butler and Gordon. But those are really the only two genuinely young, high-ceiling position players the Royals have. I expect smaller improvements from guys like Teahen and Buck, but they are older with more MLB time under their belt to show approximately how good they are. In short, there is more youth and talent in the pitching staff than among the position players.
So, Moore now needs to improve:

The rotation
The offense
The defense


I don’t know where you get the first from. No, he doesn’t need to improve the rotation, nor would it make any sense for him to spend the Royals limited resources on the rotation. And, as always, the defense is a concern which should almost always be on the back burner.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 21, 2008 5:34 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hold on

Even granting that the current team hasn’t improved enough (how much is “enough” is a matter of a different debate), this isn’t about adding players (although that’s part of it).

After all, we can certainly expect some of the current players to improve, right? I’d say Gordon and Butler for sure (and if they don’t, then the rebuilding process is going to be a lot longer, but I think they will at least some into next year). Greinke, too. There’s some pitching gas in the minors. Nunez is just coming back.

Obviously, there are other guys in there to be considered, but I think Gordon, Butler, and Greinke, who play a big role in the team, can be quite reasonably be expected to improve (perhaps not Greinke as much, since he’s already pretty awesome for stretche this season, but I think it’s a pretty conservative bet to see both Butler and Gordon over .800 OPS next year, which would still be an improvement).

Also, the offensive numbers include all the horrible at-bats from TPJ, whom we can assume will be replaced. But, again, while there is a ways to go, I still can’t see how hard it would be to improve on Gload, at least in the off-season.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 21, 2008 5:36 PM EDT