Just for grins, I was curious what Smirky's line was vs. PECOTA (BP's projection system). I put his actual to date, then projected over 162 games (actually assumed we were at game 108 so there's a little wiggle room in there), listed where in his PECOTA projection he fell, and then gave his overall PECOTA 50th percentile weighted mean projection.
His counting stats are actually at or above his expected performance. Oddly enough, PECOTA projected him to have more strikeouts as his performance increased, probably because they also saw more power.
Striking out way too much, given his power production
I was somewhat surprised that his PECOTA projections were so low for HR and RBI; some of this may have to do with last year's performance.
Rate stats are generally worse than expected, save for OBP.
I will admit, looking at the numbers this way made me feel like maybe all is not lost. However, my feeling is that the numbers to tend to reinforce some things that people have been saying about Gordon:
- He has been doing some things much better than expected, like BB and 2B;
- His strikeouts are hurting his ability to have more consistent production
To me, I still say that he needs to learn to adjust with two strikes, in order to cut down on his strikeouts. Whether he is unable or unwilling to do that, nobody really knows. My opinion, he's unwilling at this point. Hopefully that will change.
Anyway, I don't want to start another civil war between the pro and anti-Gordon camps, but just thought I'd throw this out there as food for thought...