Erik Cordier- uh-oh...

Who among us didn't fear this when Dayton Moore made the trade for Tony Pena, Jr.? Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein reports that the young pitcher we gave up for him, Erik Cordier, is working his way back from Tommy John surgery in impressive fashion. First, TPJ is horrible...now imagine if the guy we gave up for him comes back to haunt us, too? Ouch.

"Cordier is once again showing promise, allowing just three hits and one run over 5 2/3 innings on Friday night, which actually raised his ERA to 1.56 in four starts. His velocity is already clicking in the low 90s and touching 96, and his above-average changeup has hard, late fade. He's struggling to command his curveball, a common problem for those coming back from TJ surgery, but it projects as an average offering at least. If he can stay healthy, he's a very solid pitching prospect."

4 months ago cookierojas73 Comment 36 comments 0 recs |

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Two TJ sugeries plus another major injury in his young career

What do you think the odds are that he ever does anything in the majors?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 28, 2008 6:52 PM EDT 0 recs

alot better than the odds that tony pena jr ever does...like i said at the time of the trade

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 28, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up 1 recs

I meant the odds that he plays even one day in the majors

And are the odds better for Cordier? A small percentage of pitching prospects ever make it to the majors. How do you think two TJ surgeries and another major injury affect those odds? Taking Pena hatred out of the equation for a moment, this guy is a crappy prospect. Some talent but major, major injury problems which have come early and often. That’s not a recipe for success. We can bitch all we like about Pena, but we didn’t give up much for him.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 28, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think we can agree that

Pena has had more pitching success in the majors than Cordier. (And maybe even a better future!)

by mikewormdog on Jul 28, 2008 7:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed

I’ll bet anyone that Pena’s career VORP will be higher than Cordier’s. Maybe even Pena’s pitching VORP will be greater. One more major injury (which is due in about a year and a half) and Cordier is done playing baseball. If I were him, I’d start thinking about what his second career will be.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 28, 2008 7:23 PM EDT up 0 recs

honestly...id rather have had cordier and never had him make the majors than

to have pena killing us at shortstop for a year and a half

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 28, 2008 7:46 PM EDT up 2 recs

I think Pena's defense helped some young pitchers develop last year

As last year was entirely about rebuilding and developing, I think there’s value there.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 28, 2008 7:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

I agree

by cookierojas73 on Jul 28, 2008 10:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Clarification

I agree with billybeingbilly, that is. While Pena had a small amount of value last year, he was still eminently replaceable, no?

by cookierojas73 on Jul 28, 2008 10:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Pena didn't kill us for a year and a half

he killed us this year. Last year he was below average but not horrible.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 11:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yes he was horrible. He was one of the worst hitters in the majors last year.

He was even worse than your boy Julio Lugo.

by djk royal on Jul 29, 2008 11:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

He was not worse than Lugo last year

and he hovered around replacement level with the bat. This year, he’s just been undefendably awful.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 11:55 AM EDT up 0 recs

He had a 640 OPS last year. Even for a SS that is awful and well below replacement level.

by djk royal on Jul 29, 2008 11:56 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yes,

he ended up below replacement level. Because of his glove, he was still worth a couple wins to the team. Lugo was actually a net loss last year because he couldn’t field or hit.

I’m pretty sick of arguing this, because I somewhat irrationally couldn’t stand Pena last year and now I wind up defending his 2007. He was an acceptable stopgap last year, and this year has been thoroughly exposed as so bad with the bat that he would never again be a worthwhile starter even as a stopgap.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

And this is what I get sick of arguing:

His defense did not make up for his bat last year. Accoring to the 2007 UZR ratings he saved 9 runs last year over an average SS. 10 runs is roughly one win. Therefore he wasn’t worth a couple of wins. The 9 runs he saved was more than offset by his horrendous offense. That is all I’m saying. People keep continuing to say that his glove somehow made up for his offense and it simply isn’t true.

by djk royal on Jul 29, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

BP had his WARP1 last year at 2.8

hence my statement that he was worth a couple wins. WARP3 had him as worth 5 wins, but I don’t place much weight in that because WARP3 is “adjusted for all time” whereas WARP1 is just adjusting for that year.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up 0 recs

Defense counts

Especially at shortstop. Especially when you’re developing young pitchers and the team isn’t going to be in contention.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

TJ surgery

Is not the death knell it used to be, correct? Some guys even throw harder. My guess is a kid as young as Cordier with TJ can bounce back okay.

I’m still skeptical he can turn into anything, but he does show more promise of being useful than Pena….unless Pena starts working on his curveball.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 28, 2008 10:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

TJ surgery sometimes is and sometimes isn't a death knell

some pitchers bounce back relatively well from TJ surgery (Dotel, Soria, and Rosa have all managed to end up pretty well post-TJ surgery). But other pitchers like Mike Hampton and Matt Mantei were never the same after TJ surgery (yes, there was a day when Mike Hampton didn’t utterly suck at everything).

As a side note, I think Chris Carpenter is supposed to make his first MLB start since coming back from TJ surgery in a few days—it’ll be interesting to see how he does.

by DarthYoshi on Jul 28, 2008 11:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yeah, we know of a lot of guys who have had TJ surgery and come back to do well

We don’t hear anything about all of the minor leaguers who have TJ surgery and after that never do much of anything.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 12:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

also

even if two TJ surgeries don’t impede his talent at all, the simple fact that he is so injury-prone is a huge obstacle in and of itself

by DarthYoshi on Jul 28, 2008 11:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Take him in the Rule 5 in December

Game over.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 28, 2008 7:59 PM EDT 0 recs

Yea

He’s got to be close to eligible, right?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 28, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

This winter, if they don't protect him.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 29, 2008 1:02 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think Pena did what was expected of him last year

This year has been a different story, but you can’t really predict these types of things.

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jul 28, 2008 9:06 PM EDT 0 recs

The trade

If you think back to the situation at the time of this trade, after watching enough 2007 Spring Training games, Moore apparently became more and more horrified at the prospect of going into the season with Angel Berroa as his shortstop. He then quickly looked around (late in spring training, as I recall) for an available replacement and settled on Pena, apparently in the hopes of adding a stabilizing defensive presence to the team.

Moore took a calculated but understandable risk in dealing Cordier, whom everyone seemed to like as a talent, gambling that Cordier’s history of injuries would prevent him from ever being a successful major league pitcher.

I guess my point was, if he happens to lose that gamble, it would be an awfully bitter pill to swallow, given Pena’s status as arguably the worst hitter in the major leagues.

Although I would have rather seen Moore trade for a shortstop who wasn’t such a one-dimensional stopgap, I understand that he needed someone who could play shortstop, his resources were limited and in no way could he consider Cordier off limits given his health. I’m just sayin’, however small the chance, this just might turn out to be a much worse move than it has been thus far, which would be a remarkable achievement, if you think about it.

by cookierojas73 on Jul 28, 2008 10:03 PM EDT 0 recs

Pena was out of options

Either the Braves were going to stash him on their roster or try to slip him through waivers. I think there’s a chance we could have had him for free. It was a calculated gamble on Dayton’s part, and I don’t think you gamble when it comes to a player like Pena. You wait for him to go on waivers, and if he doesn’t, there are plenty of other glove men who can hit like him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 28, 2008 10:10 PM EDT up 1 recs

he miscalculated....what i dont get is...

wait like 3 more days, if they dont release him then…you then send them cordier or whoever….but he wouldve been dfa’d

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 29, 2008 12:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

I would have been upset if we had traded a genuine prospect for Pena

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 12:50 AM EDT up 0 recs

it probably isnt worth getting upset over...

its probably a shit for shit trade….but pena was never going to be anything…look at his minor league numbers…that was very evident…cordier could turn a corner at some point

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 29, 2008 1:42 AM EDT up 0 recs

What young players will turn into is never "very evident"

You speculated at the time and it looks like you were right. At the time it looked most likely that neither would ever amount to much. I think Pena was worth a try. He was a big defensive upgrade over the incumbent who needed to be replaced. We had the time to try him out and see if his bat would develop (given his little organized baseball experience, his minor league track record did not make the final outcome of his hitting a certainty).

I’m going to predict Cordier never does anything in the majors. That way, a few years from now when he’s out of baseball, I can post here and say that I knew that was going to happen because it was very evident that he’d never amount to anything.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

he had like 2500 minor league at bats...

thats hardly ‘little organized baseball experience’

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 29, 2008 2:09 AM EDT up 0 recs

He didn't start playing organized baseball for a long time

His father made him wait much longer than most people. So, by the time he was in the minors, he had much less organized baseball experience than basically any other minor leaguer. But we all know this already.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 2:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed

Pena is the kinda guy you take a flyer on if he’s free, but you don’t give up anything, not even an oft injured pitcher for.

This was a case of, as NYRoyal likes to say “the tail wagging the dog.” DM wanted to get rid of Berroa. He didn’t have anyone in-house to replace him with. But he was going to get rid of Angel regardless. So he traded for a no-hit glove man.

I’m sorry, but you don’t trade anything of value for no-hit glove men.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 29, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up 0 recs