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According to ESPN trade Deadline...

"Left-handed reliever Ron Mahay could be on the verge of heading to the Phillies.

According to clubs that have been speaking with the Royals, they've been having extensive conversations with the Phillies about a trade that would send Mahay to Philadelphia for shortstop prospect Jason Donald, a member of the U.S. Olympic baseball team.

It's believed that as many as 10 teams have contacted the Royals about Mahay, who is signed for next year at $4 million. Most of them have come away with the impression that the Royals aren't motivated to trade him. But in Donald, the Phillies have a commodity for which Kansas City has been searching aggressively. So the fit appears better with the Phillies than with any of the other teams on the Royals' list."

Link 4 months ago Tiny Trumanroyal Comment 128 comments 0 recs |

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Interesting, Sickels lists Donald as Phillies 6th best prospect

at C+ with a note as “Big Time Sleeper”

Looks like pretty consistent offensive numbers through the minors.

My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!

by Royal Kingdom on Jul 29, 2008 1:05 PM EDT   0 recs

23 year old 3rd round pick out of Univ. of Arizona in 2006

He’s hit consistently well in the minors and is in AA right now. I think his earliest ETA for the majors would be 2010.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:08 PM EDT   0 recs

Really?

He’s in AA already. I think he could contribute by mid-season next year.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 29, 2008 2:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think that would be rushing him

Maybe if he starts next year in AAA and has a great first half, but I don’t like rushing prospects when a team isn’t contending. If you need to hurry a player to the majors to help your team get into the playoffs, ok. But if you hurry him because you just don’t want to wait, then that’s a mistake. I like for a prospect to make all stops (A, AA, AAA) before the majors unless he’s a top 25 MLB prospect. Donald isn’t.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 2:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Enough?

Donald’s cube

He’s definitely good. But wouldn’t we want more than that since Mahay’s signed through next year?

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 1:09 PM EDT   0 recs

good point.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 1:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

A lot of teams would love to have him for next year for $4M

That doesn’t cancel out next year’s value.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

good point.

I’m just here to ride the fence, folks!

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 1:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

$4 million for a non-closer is a lot of money

Most teams are also smart enough to look past the shiny ERA. This is not a salary dump situation, but paying sticker price for a good but not great reliever whose results are better than his performance makes the fact he is signed through next year a neutral consideration at best.

by Gopherballs on Jul 29, 2008 1:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Tell that to Linebrink and others

The market price for relievers has gone up and it won’t be going down anytime soon. Mahay is getting paid fair market value for his services. Many teams would be happy to have his services for $4M next year. And he isn’t just good by ERA. His 3.14 FIP looks damned good too, plus a low LD% and no flukey/lucky BABIP.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 2:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

His HR rate is fluky, which is one of the three components of FIP

His FIP the last three years is 4.08, 4.25, and 5.60. His contract is not driving the deal.

by Gopherballs on Jul 29, 2008 3:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No one said his contract is driving the deal

Nor is it an impediment. Having him under contract for 1 1/3 years does help his value.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 3:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

gonna have to agree with NY here

it would be one thing if it were a big contract, but its a tough sell to call Mahay’s contract that bloated of a salary that the extra year of control doesn’t increase his value

by ZeppelinDZ on Jul 29, 2008 5:31 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I have to disagree

given the kind of money teams have shelled out for non-closing relievers recently.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 2:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

We are paying less for Mahay than the Brewers are for Riske.

by DarthYoshi on Jul 29, 2008 2:36 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Off the top of my head

Linebrink, Riske and Dotel are all non-closer relievers getting paid more than Mahay.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 2:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Those teams did not also give up one of their top prospects

for the privilege of overpaying for their services.

As a free agent, $4 million for Mahay is not any great deal. As a trade acquisition, the cost of $4 million plus a top prospect.

by Gopherballs on Jul 29, 2008 3:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It's not a great deal, it is market rate

Yes, they have to pay his salary. And his salary is, at worst, at market rate for his services. Any time you trade for a player, you give up something in order to get that player and pay his salary (unless of course additional money is part of the deal). If that player is worthy of his salary (if he’s not overpaid), then the salary is no deterrent to the trade.

Long story short, we would be trading 1 1/3 years of a good lefty reliever who is getting paid 2008 market value.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 3:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What the highest paid free agents at a position get does not equal "market rate"

There are about 100 non-closer relievers in baseball who essentially pitch in the same mid-to-high leverage situations as Mahay. Only a handful make $4 million. The market for relievers is not solely “highest paid free agents.”

by Gopherballs on Jul 29, 2008 3:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The current market is set by contract signings

It isn’t set by what guys signed for two, three or more years ago. Right now the market for good, non-closer relievers is $4M+. Next year it will likely be even higher. That means that Mahay is getting paid the market rate. In order for a team to get a player like him for next year, they’d have to spend $4M or even more. Therefore, his $4M that he is owed next year is a good, market rate price.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 3:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You paid full sticker price for your car, didn't you?

Looking only at the free agent market is like walking onto a dealership and telling the salesperson you will only consider buying a car off this lot.

The market is set by trades, the CBA salary restrictions, the waiver wire, international signings, the Rule 4 draft, the Rule 5 draft, and the independent leagues (where Baltimore’s closer came from).

The Royals did not have to pay $4 million to a major league free agent to acquire either their closer or top setup man.

by Gopherballs on Jul 29, 2008 3:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

you keep talking in generalizations, which is fine, but not germane to this...

The real question is “What would Ron Mahay get if he was a free agent this winter?” And the answer is: More than $4M. Therefore, the contract is an asset.

by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 3:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But if it takes $4M or more to acquire a pitcher like Mahay on the FA market

...and if teams do pick up a lot of pitchers on the FA market, then the fact that Mahay gets paid that much does not mean that he’s overpaid or that teams would not like to pay that much for him. If you think that teams are hesitant to acquire Mahay because he makes $4M next year, then you’re dead wrong. Contending teams aren’t going to think, “hey we can pick up a rule 5 guy which will probably help us get to the playoffs just as much as Mahay.”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 3:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, I am saying his contract is a "neutral consideration at best"

There is no additional value in his contract because most teams realize they could go out and sign as good as or a better reliever than Mahay for the same money this offseason, or a player signed to a less expensive contract through a trade, or sign a guy out of Japan or the Mexican leagues for a lot less money, etc.

Teams are interested in Mahay only because he can help them this season.

by Gopherballs on Jul 29, 2008 4:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, they don't think they can easily find someone as good or better than him on the FA market for that price

It’s just not that easy to find a pitcher as good as him. His contract helps his trade value. We’ll agree to disagree.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 4:07 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

But first-rate closers USUALLY do not come from Rule V

You cannot build a roster through Rule V, only hope to strike gold once in a while as the Royals did with Soria.

by jbrocato on Jul 29, 2008 4:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

what he said...

sorry, ny, looks like we were on the same page here.

by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 3:48 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

"he" being nyroyal

i still don’t have this new format figured out…

by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 3:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not a good comparison...

The “market rate” is established by current factors, so looking at past contracts doesn’t tell you anything. The key is what Mahay would command on the market this winter. My guess is that he’d get more than $4M. Maybe substantially more. Mahay’s contract is pretty clearly an asset for the Royals.

by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 3:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

BTW, if he was a C+ prospect going into this season...

...and in this season he’s had a .886 OPS his first year in AA, then he’s at least a B- now, maybe a B.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:10 PM EDT   0 recs

This looks like a pretty good return for Mahay

though I wonder how the salary division will pan out.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 1:10 PM EDT   0 recs

Any ideas

on who our lefty relievers would be then?

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 1:14 PM EDT   0 recs

Both Yimmy and Musser

are on the DL. And Yimmy sucks this year.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 1:21 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Bale...and who cares

My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!

by Royal Kingdom on Jul 29, 2008 1:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

+1 on both

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We might have to do without another good LHP in the bullpen this year

That’s a small price to pay for getting a good SS prospect like Donald.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Lots of decent options

Musser would/could/should get called up. And for next year, Moore can find another Mahay if necessary (not that the next guy he finds would be as great as Mahay, but he’s good at finding bullpen pieces).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah,

I wasn’t so much concerned with who we would call up as much as who else we may get in the trade if we included someone else…

And I forgot about Bale, because well, he’s forgettable.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 1:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There's Yimmy

(if he appears this season again), Bale, Musser, and HoRam. None of them are as good as Mahay, of course, but it’s not like we’re replacing a situational lefty anyway. It’s not that big of a deal anyway…I’m just glad that the Royals seems to have made a good trade. Grudz, hopefully you’re next.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 1:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And Olivo, you too

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 1:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

olivo needs to go soon,

he’s at his highest worth right now, even though he has stopped play as much. Plus we have brayan in omaha.

by cfizzle on Jul 29, 2008 1:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Seriously.

Can’t we throw in Grudz on this and just get Jimmy Rollins instead??? I mean, who is this Utley kid. Surely they’d take Grudz over that guy.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 1:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Bale should be coming back this year.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 1:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Moore should jump

at this potential trade.

Let’s hope he can find more moves like this in the future.

by loyal2sdad on Jul 29, 2008 1:27 PM EDT   0 recs

yeah, this looks like a great deal for us

let’s hope this goes through

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Jul 29, 2008 2:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It seems...

that this Donald kid is pretty good (OPS is 900). I looked at his stats and they are all arounf the same area of .300-.315 (lh vs rh, day vs. night, road vs. home). From what I have read he is a 20 hr/ 20 double a year guy that plays very good defense. Aviles at 2nd and Donald at SS would look good for the next 5-7 years.

by Wazzie on Jul 29, 2008 1:28 PM EDT   0 recs

agreed.

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 1:28 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Donald would be a great return for Mahay

Mahay is a good reliever, but his results have been better than he has pitched this year, plus he is due some regression in his HR/FB (currently 2.7%, career 8.7%, league average 10-11%).

by Gopherballs on Jul 29, 2008 1:29 PM EDT   0 recs

Does Donald project as a ML SS?

17 Errors? Would love the trade!!

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Jul 29, 2008 1:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

From what I've read/heard, his defensive skills are a little subpar

If he can hit, I’ll take it.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ala Aviles?

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 1:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I read from some Phillie fans,

that they think this is a steal for the Phillies.

by cfizzle on Jul 29, 2008 1:31 PM EDT   0 recs

Well, to be fair,

fans of teams in a pennant race would certainly be expected to view any trade for the short-term, so yeah, it is a steal – FOR 2008.

What will it be for 2009-2015? That’s the question.

by loyal2sdad on Jul 29, 2008 1:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Happ

I read that the Phillies may have pulled JA Happ (a lefty) from a AAA start recently due to trade possibilities. Any chance we throw somebody in with Mahay (Olivo?) and get a bigger return? Happ + Donald? I know that’s insanely greedy, but I think we’re actually undervaluing Mahay here. The Rockies were asking for two top and/or high ceiling propsects for Fuetes and he walks after the year.

"Greinke and the Brain" (R) (C) TM

by SittinByTheFoulPole on Jul 29, 2008 1:32 PM EDT   0 recs

KU Jayhawk connection

Former KU pitcher Mike Zagurski was the Phillies lefty option out of the pen last year. He was injured and will miss all this season. His injury is part of the reason this situation has developed. Zagurski is a great story. He went from KU to the MLB in under two years despite being a 12th round draft selection.

Zagurski owns the single season K record at KU.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 1:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Stark now says

the Phillies are “not close” on Mahay.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 29, 2008 1:41 PM EDT   0 recs

damn,

the more i look at donald the more he looks awsome.

by cfizzle on Jul 29, 2008 1:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I guess he left out one key word in his earlier article

“not”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 1:45 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

wow.

this would be very nice. of course, last year i got tricked by the dotel for lillebridge rumors that were flying around (which was too much to hope for). i agree with nyroyal that this season looks like a breakout type year for Donald and he’s probably up to at least a B- prospect. And we’d be selling Mahay at an absolute high. He’s a translated ERA for his career is 3.70. His translated ERA this year is 2.90. It’s VERY likely that he regresses to his career mean in the next season and a half and it’s quite likely that the Royals can get equal performance from any number of guys (and they don’t have to be lefties—Mahay’s actually slightly better vs. righties…). If they can improve their hitting prospects without losing one of their pitching prospects, then it’s better than a good deal, it’s a great deal.

by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 1:46 PM EDT   0 recs

FYI...

Kevin Goldstein at BP said in his Phillies preseason prospect rankings (#8, by the way), that very few scouts believe that he can stay at SS in the bigs. Scouts project him as a 2B. That dings his value a little bit, but not much.

by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 1:51 PM EDT   0 recs

but for the Royals, that dings his value a significant amount

We have both Callaspo and Aviles, both of whom are at least adequate second basemen but who play subpar defense at SS. We need someone who can field the position on an everyday level, which I am still not convinced that either Aviles or Callaspo can do. If Donald truly can’t handle SS at the bigs, and the asking price is Mahay, I’d say pass.

by DarthYoshi on Jul 29, 2008 2:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My guess is, if the Royals really do want Donald, they don't think he's just a 2B

Just my speculation.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 2:41 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If he hits well enough, can't that make him "stick at SS," too?

a la Jeter—sucks at D, and a lot of scouts thought he couldn’t stick at SS, but with hitting like he did (prior to this season), wasn’t he still a big net gain at SS?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Jul 29, 2008 6:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

a la Aviles

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 6:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly

:)

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 30, 2008 12:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rosenthal's take
The Phillies, in pursuit of a left-handed reliever, inquired about the Royals’ Ron Mahay, but are not the front-runner to acquire him, according to major-league sources.
...

The interest in Mahay has intensified, and other teams are willing to pay a greater price than the Phillies. The Rockies, at least for the moment, are not discussing deals involving closer Brian Fuentes. The Orioles so far have been unsuccessful in their quest to acquire a young shortstop for closer George Sherrill.

That leaves Mahay as one of the better options for teams seeking a veteran lefty. He signed a two-year with the Royals last offseason and will earn $4 million in 2009. The Royals are believed to be seeking position help in return.

Link here

Don't Stop Believing!

by KC Chris on Jul 29, 2008 2:02 PM EDT   0 recs