According to ESPN trade Deadline...
"Left-handed reliever Ron Mahay could be on the verge of heading to the Phillies.
According to clubs that have been speaking with the Royals, they've been having extensive conversations with the Phillies about a trade that would send Mahay to Philadelphia for shortstop prospect Jason Donald, a member of the U.S. Olympic baseball team.
It's believed that as many as 10 teams have contacted the Royals about Mahay, who is signed for next year at $4 million. Most of them have come away with the impression that the Royals aren't motivated to trade him. But in Donald, the Phillies have a commodity for which Kansas City has been searching aggressively. So the fit appears better with the Phillies than with any of the other teams on the Royals' list."
about 1 year ago
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Interesting, Sickels lists Donald as Phillies 6th best prospect
at C+ with a note as “Big Time Sleeper”
Looks like pretty consistent offensive numbers through the minors.
My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!
23 year old 3rd round pick out of Univ. of Arizona in 2006
He’s hit consistently well in the minors and is in AA right now. I think his earliest ETA for the majors would be 2010.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Really?
He’s in AA already. I think he could contribute by mid-season next year.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think that would be rushing him
Maybe if he starts next year in AAA and has a great first half, but I don’t like rushing prospects when a team isn’t contending. If you need to hurry a player to the majors to help your team get into the playoffs, ok. But if you hurry him because you just don’t want to wait, then that’s a mistake. I like for a prospect to make all stops (A, AA, AAA) before the majors unless he’s a top 25 MLB prospect. Donald isn’t.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Enough?
Donald’s cube
He’s definitely good. But wouldn’t we want more than that since Mahay’s signed through next year?
Don't Stop Believing!
A lot of teams would love to have him for next year for $4M
That doesn’t cancel out next year’s value.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
good point.
I’m just here to ride the fence, folks!
Don't Stop Believing!
Yeah, the fact that he's not just a 2-month rental actually increases his trade value
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
$4 million for a non-closer is a lot of money
Most teams are also smart enough to look past the shiny ERA. This is not a salary dump situation, but paying sticker price for a good but not great reliever whose results are better than his performance makes the fact he is signed through next year a neutral consideration at best.
Tell that to Linebrink and others
The market price for relievers has gone up and it won’t be going down anytime soon. Mahay is getting paid fair market value for his services. Many teams would be happy to have his services for $4M next year. And he isn’t just good by ERA. His 3.14 FIP looks damned good too, plus a low LD% and no flukey/lucky BABIP.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
His HR rate is fluky, which is one of the three components of FIP
His FIP the last three years is 4.08, 4.25, and 5.60. His contract is not driving the deal.
No one said his contract is driving the deal
Nor is it an impediment. Having him under contract for 1 1/3 years does help his value.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
No, it does not
Otherwise non-contenders would be trying to trade for him too. The Phillies or whoever could go out and get someone just as good as or better than Mahay as a free agent after the season without having to give up a top prospect. They are willing to give up the top prospect only because they need someone for the next two months.
by Gopherballs on Jul 29, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, it does not Otherwise non-contenders would be trying to trade for him too.
That’s poor logic. His value is obviously much higher to a contender who gets both next year at $4M and the remainder this year to help the team get into the playoffs and beyond.
They are willing to give up the top prospect only because they need someone for the next two months.
They are willing to give up a top prospect because of the next two months + next year. Typically you don’t get a top prospect for a rental of a non-closer reliever. It is the extra year which could get the Royals a significantly better prospect like Donald.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
gonna have to agree with NY here
it would be one thing if it were a big contract, but its a tough sell to call Mahay’s contract that bloated of a salary that the extra year of control doesn’t increase his value
I have to disagree
given the kind of money teams have shelled out for non-closing relievers recently.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
+1
We are paying less for Mahay than the Brewers are for Riske.
Off the top of my head
Linebrink, Riske and Dotel are all non-closer relievers getting paid more than Mahay.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Those teams did not also give up one of their top prospects
for the privilege of overpaying for their services.
As a free agent, $4 million for Mahay is not any great deal. As a trade acquisition, the cost of $4 million plus a top prospect.
What does a reliever get you these days
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
It's not a great deal, it is market rate
Yes, they have to pay his salary. And his salary is, at worst, at market rate for his services. Any time you trade for a player, you give up something in order to get that player and pay his salary (unless of course additional money is part of the deal). If that player is worthy of his salary (if he’s not overpaid), then the salary is no deterrent to the trade.
Long story short, we would be trading 1 1/3 years of a good lefty reliever who is getting paid 2008 market value.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
What the highest paid free agents at a position get does not equal "market rate"
There are about 100 non-closer relievers in baseball who essentially pitch in the same mid-to-high leverage situations as Mahay. Only a handful make $4 million. The market for relievers is not solely “highest paid free agents.”
The current market is set by contract signings
It isn’t set by what guys signed for two, three or more years ago. Right now the market for good, non-closer relievers is $4M+. Next year it will likely be even higher. That means that Mahay is getting paid the market rate. In order for a team to get a player like him for next year, they’d have to spend $4M or even more. Therefore, his $4M that he is owed next year is a good, market rate price.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
You paid full sticker price for your car, didn't you?
Looking only at the free agent market is like walking onto a dealership and telling the salesperson you will only consider buying a car off this lot.
The market is set by trades, the CBA salary restrictions, the waiver wire, international signings, the Rule 4 draft, the Rule 5 draft, and the independent leagues (where Baltimore’s closer came from).
The Royals did not have to pay $4 million to a major league free agent to acquire either their closer or top setup man.
you keep talking in generalizations, which is fine, but not germane to this...
The real question is “What would Ron Mahay get if he was a free agent this winter?” And the answer is: More than $4M. Therefore, the contract is an asset.
by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
But if it takes $4M or more to acquire a pitcher like Mahay on the FA market
...and if teams do pick up a lot of pitchers on the FA market, then the fact that Mahay gets paid that much does not mean that he’s overpaid or that teams would not like to pay that much for him. If you think that teams are hesitant to acquire Mahay because he makes $4M next year, then you’re dead wrong. Contending teams aren’t going to think, “hey we can pick up a rule 5 guy which will probably help us get to the playoffs just as much as Mahay.”
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
No, I am saying his contract is a "neutral consideration at best"
There is no additional value in his contract because most teams realize they could go out and sign as good as or a better reliever than Mahay for the same money this offseason, or a player signed to a less expensive contract through a trade, or sign a guy out of Japan or the Mexican leagues for a lot less money, etc.
Teams are interested in Mahay only because he can help them this season.
No, they don't think they can easily find someone as good or better than him on the FA market for that price
It’s just not that easy to find a pitcher as good as him. His contract helps his trade value. We’ll agree to disagree.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
But first-rate closers USUALLY do not come from Rule V
You cannot build a roster through Rule V, only hope to strike gold once in a while as the Royals did with Soria.
what he said...
sorry, ny, looks like we were on the same page here.
by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
"he" being nyroyal
i still don’t have this new format figured out…
by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a good comparison...
The “market rate” is established by current factors, so looking at past contracts doesn’t tell you anything. The key is what Mahay would command on the market this winter. My guess is that he’d get more than $4M. Maybe substantially more. Mahay’s contract is pretty clearly an asset for the Royals.
by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
BTW, if he was a C+ prospect going into this season...
...and in this season he’s had a .886 OPS his first year in AA, then he’s at least a B- now, maybe a B.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
This looks like a pretty good return for Mahay
though I wonder how the salary division will pan out.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Any ideas
on who our lefty relievers would be then?
Don't Stop Believing!
Both Yimmy and Musser
are on the DL. And Yimmy sucks this year.
Don't Stop Believing!
Bale...and who cares
My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!
by Royal Kingdom on Jul 29, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
We might have to do without another good LHP in the bullpen this year
That’s a small price to pay for getting a good SS prospect like Donald.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Lots of decent options
Musser would/could/should get called up. And for next year, Moore can find another Mahay if necessary (not that the next guy he finds would be as great as Mahay, but he’s good at finding bullpen pieces).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Yeah,
I wasn’t so much concerned with who we would call up as much as who else we may get in the trade if we included someone else…
And I forgot about Bale, because well, he’s forgettable.
Don't Stop Believing!
There's Yimmy
(if he appears this season again), Bale, Musser, and HoRam. None of them are as good as Mahay, of course, but it’s not like we’re replacing a situational lefty anyway. It’s not that big of a deal anyway…I’m just glad that the Royals seems to have made a good trade. Grudz, hopefully you’re next.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
olivo needs to go soon,
he’s at his highest worth right now, even though he has stopped play as much. Plus we have brayan in omaha.
Seriously.
Can’t we throw in Grudz on this and just get Jimmy Rollins instead??? I mean, who is this Utley kid. Surely they’d take Grudz over that guy.
Don't Stop Believing!
Moore should jump
at this potential trade.
Let’s hope he can find more moves like this in the future.
yeah, this looks like a great deal for us
let’s hope this goes through
This space intentionally left blank.
It seems...
that this Donald kid is pretty good (OPS is 900). I looked at his stats and they are all arounf the same area of .300-.315 (lh vs rh, day vs. night, road vs. home). From what I have read he is a 20 hr/ 20 double a year guy that plays very good defense. Aviles at 2nd and Donald at SS would look good for the next 5-7 years.
Donald would be a great return for Mahay
Mahay is a good reliever, but his results have been better than he has pitched this year, plus he is due some regression in his HR/FB (currently 2.7%, career 8.7%, league average 10-11%).
Does Donald project as a ML SS?
17 Errors? Would love the trade!!
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
From what I've read/heard, his defensive skills are a little subpar
If he can hit, I’ll take it.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Well, to be fair,
fans of teams in a pennant race would certainly be expected to view any trade for the short-term, so yeah, it is a steal – FOR 2008.
What will it be for 2009-2015? That’s the question.
Happ
I read that the Phillies may have pulled JA Happ (a lefty) from a AAA start recently due to trade possibilities. Any chance we throw somebody in with Mahay (Olivo?) and get a bigger return? Happ + Donald? I know that’s insanely greedy, but I think we’re actually undervaluing Mahay here. The Rockies were asking for two top and/or high ceiling propsects for Fuetes and he walks after the year.
"Greinke and the Brain" (R) (C) TM
by SittinByTheFoulPole on Jul 29, 2008 1:32 PM EDT reply actions
KU Jayhawk connection
Former KU pitcher Mike Zagurski was the Phillies lefty option out of the pen last year. He was injured and will miss all this season. His injury is part of the reason this situation has developed. Zagurski is a great story. He went from KU to the MLB in under two years despite being a 12th round draft selection.
Zagurski owns the single season K record at KU.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
I guess he left out one key word in his earlier article
“not”
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
wow.
this would be very nice. of course, last year i got tricked by the dotel for lillebridge rumors that were flying around (which was too much to hope for). i agree with nyroyal that this season looks like a breakout type year for Donald and he’s probably up to at least a B- prospect. And we’d be selling Mahay at an absolute high. He’s a translated ERA for his career is 3.70. His translated ERA this year is 2.90. It’s VERY likely that he regresses to his career mean in the next season and a half and it’s quite likely that the Royals can get equal performance from any number of guys (and they don’t have to be lefties—Mahay’s actually slightly better vs. righties…). If they can improve their hitting prospects without losing one of their pitching prospects, then it’s better than a good deal, it’s a great deal.
FYI...
Kevin Goldstein at BP said in his Phillies preseason prospect rankings (#8, by the way), that very few scouts believe that he can stay at SS in the bigs. Scouts project him as a 2B. That dings his value a little bit, but not much.
but for the Royals, that dings his value a significant amount
We have both Callaspo and Aviles, both of whom are at least adequate second basemen but who play subpar defense at SS. We need someone who can field the position on an everyday level, which I am still not convinced that either Aviles or Callaspo can do. If Donald truly can’t handle SS at the bigs, and the asking price is Mahay, I’d say pass.
My guess is, if the Royals really do want Donald, they don't think he's just a 2B
Just my speculation.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
If he hits well enough, can't that make him "stick at SS," too?
a la Jeter—sucks at D, and a lot of scouts thought he couldn’t stick at SS, but with hitting like he did (prior to this season), wasn’t he still a big net gain at SS?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 29, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Rosenthal's take
The Phillies, in pursuit of a left-handed reliever, inquired about the Royals’ Ron Mahay, but are not the front-runner to acquire him, according to major-league sources.
...The interest in Mahay has intensified, and other teams are willing to pay a greater price than the Phillies. The Rockies, at least for the moment, are not discussing deals involving closer Brian Fuentes. The Orioles so far have been unsuccessful in their quest to acquire a young shortstop for closer George Sherrill.
That leaves Mahay as one of the better options for teams seeking a veteran lefty. He signed a two-year with the Royals last offseason and will earn $4 million in 2009. The Royals are believed to be seeking position help in return.
Link here
Don't Stop Believing!
good...if we can do better...awesome...if donald is what we can get...good
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 29, 2008 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
A little competition never hurts
That same link talks about teams being interested in Laird… who Olivo is close behind. Teams interested in Laird are Brewers, Yanks, Reds. We know Marlins are interested and Blue Jays are interested…
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Phillies Blogs are up in arms about the thought of this trade,
which probably means its too good to be true, Damn you Stark, you have annoyed me again, just like you do every week on Petro’s show.
My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!
Wow
Donald would be a great haul for Mahay IMO. A shortstop that can draw some walks and has some pop. I like it a lot.
If we can get even more from a different team, even better. But I’d be very happy with Donald.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I agree. I Donald is what we get, it’s servicable. If we get Moore, great!
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
I fully expect this deal to fall apart
And we’ll be stuck with Wlad Balentien.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Throwing out a wild one that has no truth behind it.
Let’s explore the Reds wanting a catcher…. Maybe Dunn for Mahay and Olivo?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
And what benefit
Would it be to have two months of Adam Dunn?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Why would the Reds want a catcher!
They already have Paul Bako!
In all seriousness, the Reds seem pretty set at catcher. David Ross and the Latin Love Machine are both just fine. The Reds have more pressing needs than upgrading at catcher.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
Rosenthal said they were interested in Laird. I just say if they are interested in Laird they must at least think once in a while about Olivo.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/8389526/Astros-not-discussing-Tejada-with-Red-Sox
The Marlins are the most aggressive suitor for Rangers catcher Gerald Laird, but add the Brewers to the list of interested clubs, which also includes the Reds and Yankees.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Odd, the Reds are not in the race this year.
And Olivo is not signed past this year.
The Reds could really use more pitching. I’d be surprised to see them trade for a catcher, but who knows.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
The Reds are looking more long-term
They’re not enamored with Ross. Yes, they have more pressing needs, but there have been a lot of rumors they want a young catcher.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Idea for a new TV Channel
Get the thing up and running for all the major sports nearing their trade deadline time. Cover every single rumor and have analysis on whether it’d be good or bad for each team. Players involved. That kind of thing. It’d be sure to draw every single one of us at least two or three times a night. I’d kill in the ratings.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
The MLB Channel
Coming January 2009.
I cannot wait.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
The MLB channel will be great but this new channel I’m proposing covers all the major sports. It’d draw everyone like ESPN draws people. And because it’s all based on gossip, people will watch just to see whats going on. Maybe just run it from 3 PM until midnight. That way it’s not overkill like sportscenter reruns for 12 hours a day.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
A whole TV channel devoted to trade deadlines?
What do they do the other 90% of the year?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Klassic Krusty
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 29, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
The MLB trade deadline
Is really the only exciting one. The NFL trade deadline has no activity. I guess the NBA trade deadline has some activity, but the cap makes it hard to swing deals.
As NYRoyal says, I don’t really see how a channel just devoted to trade gossip would fill the time outside of the last week of July and the first week of December.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
seems like...
it’d be just another vehicle for talking about major-market teams’ needs and desires with Yankee mokes calling in suggesting ridiculous things like, “Trade the Melk Man for Brendan Bannister!”
by billexgordler on Jul 29, 2008 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
It wouldn’t just be trade gossip… a rod at the club…what aaron rodgers REALLY thinks…. we’d form a whole new group of papparozi and chase sports stars… it’d be fun. Romo in Mexico with exclusive footage…..
I think that Dunn will hit more HRs from now until the end of the season than our team leader will the entire year. Let’s do it. And we still have a couple of days to get a Sabathia-LaPorta/Blanton for #2 and #4 prospects deal done. IF not, we have an extra first rounder and a supplemental first rounder… we’ve done well with those guys in the new regime. Sure it’s selling low on Mahay, but it’ll put butts in the seats and balls in the Royals RF bullpen.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
So you want to acquire Dunn
So you can trade him again?
Reminds of that commercial where the guy wins a painting at auction then wants to sell it immediately.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
OT- Papparazi TV
I’d like to see a show dedicated to having papparazi follow other papparazi. You know, hide in their trees, try to run them off the road, yell things at them until they throw a fit and then get it on camera. On happy occassions, they might force each other off the road to their flaming deaths.
If it served the purpose of reducing the number of people who decide they want to be parasites, I mean papparazi, I think it would be worth the lowering of standards on TV.
Call me crazy
but if they did trade for Dunn, and he hit 15-20 HRs and, you know, ACTUALLY DRAW SOME WALKS, the last two months for us, he would be absolutely ADORED by the fans, the media, etc.
Royals could use that two months for non-stop courting. Combined with a dump of Guillen somewhere, and the team might be able to afford what Dunn wants in salary.
If it doesn’t cost too much in prospects, what the hell?
The Royals can afford Dunn right now
It would cost prospects and there is no guarantee that he’d sign and eschew free agency. In fact, there’s no reason to believe he’d sign and eschew free agency.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
+1 don't give up prospects for COURTING
If it takes a FO a 2 month head start to sell a team then we might as well stop watching now.
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
No, it does not Otherwise non-contenders would be trying to trade for him too.
That’s poor logic. His value is obviously much higher to a contender who gets both next year at $4M and the remainder this year to help the team get into the playoffs and beyond.
They are willing to give up the top prospect only because they need someone for the next two months.
They are willing to give up a top prospect because of the next two months + next year. Typically you don’t get a top prospect for a rental of a non-closer reliever. It is the extra year which could get the Royals a significantly better prospect like Donald.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
The scuttlebutt is Boston now
Who would you want from Boston?
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
Jed Lowrie?
Can he handle SS? Would they even go for that?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 29, 2008 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I assume there is no way they would send Lowrie to KC for a price acceptable to the Royals, right?
And maybe you should do a piece about “Good GMs who fall for bad players” Epstein/Lugo; Beane/T-Long; Cashman/Igawa; and so on
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
It'd be a fun piece, actually,
thanks for the idea. And I really doubt Jed is moving this year.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
DO IT
Another fun piece: try to find a SS prospect who can hit about whom “scouts wonder if he can stick at short” has never been written.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
It's like the middle infield version
of Nichol’s Law of Catcher Defense. The defensive reputation is inversely proportional to how well the guy can hit.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
Yup
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
OT: Ricciardi is a jerk
Gregg Zaun would welcome a trade. GM J.P. Ricciardi responded by saying “someone has to want you.”– from MLBTR.
Sorry, I just thought it was funny but didn’t warrant it’s own thread.
Don't Stop Believing!
I can think of a lot of teams that should want Zaun
I’d say he’s a better hitter than Olivo, although I don’t know his stats offhand for this year.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I still like the Donald for Mahay deal…. I don’t like GMDM saying we’re standing still right now….
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Saying we're standing still is the right thing to say publicly
You don’t want to say, “we’re really working hard to move some of these guys and get what we can get for them.” That doesn’t exactly help your bargaining position. And we still have no idea if Donald-for-Mahay was ever on the table. For all we know, the offer may have been Donald and another prospect for Mahay and Gordon. We don’t know. Every year there are rumors of great trades that never happen and then people complain about why our GM didn’t make that deal happen. We don’t know if it was ever even possible.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
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