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Can the Royals beat the 69 wins of 2007?

If so when... take the poll and show us your optimism. 

If we don't hit that magic number does that mean that Buddy Bell was a better manager than Trey Hillman or that the "improvements" to the 2007 team made by GMDM were flops.   Remember Jason "Lala" Larue has regained his powerstroke with the Cardinals.  Redman is still a starting pitcher in the bigs and lets not forget Angel Berroa ... who started at shortstop for the Dodgers last night. 

Poll
When will the Royals win 70 games?
1. Sept. 10th
10 votes
2. Sept. 20th
30 votes
3. Last day of the season
3 votes
4. Not a chance in hell in 2008
0 votes

43 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 39 comments

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Comments

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It is a certainty

I had hoped this team would win 75 games and they still might. Even if they do not, I still know in my heart that this team is better than last years team, and moving in the right direction, if slowly.

The part of the team’s future that most worries me is Moore’s drafting philosophy. This is the only part of his performance that I give a thumbs down to so far.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 1:54 PM EDT   0 recs

What don't you like about his philosophy,

national experts really praised the Royals draft this year IIRC.

My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!

by Royal Kingdom on Jul 29, 2008 2:17 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The Royals had a spectacular draft this year

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 2:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't see it.

If they sign Howser and Melville I will give it a mild thumbs up. I am not at all happy with Howser as the #3 overall pick. That was a bad decision, just as taking Moustakas last year was a bad decision. When you have a top-5 pick you DO NOT NEED TO GAMBLE on raw highschool talent. Is Moore just trying to be too clever? I wonder about this.

But who knows. We’ll see. At this point I am not excited by this draft.

I do like what Moore is doing with international signings.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 2:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It's not just me

Just about every analyst I’ve seen has given the Royals an A for this draft. Hosmer, Montgomery, Sample, Melville. That’s quite a haul. They decided to go out and spend money and get the best talent. That’s how you are supposed to draft and they got really good players.

When you have a top-5 pick you DO NOT NEED TO GAMBLE on raw highschool talent.

You should take the player you think is going to be the best major leaguer. Not play it safe on the most finished guy who is most likely to contribute to the major league team to some degree.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 3:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed

“When you have a top-5 pick you DO NOT NEED TO GAMBLE on raw highschool talent.”

I couldn’t disagree with this statement more. Get the best player available. I don’t care if he’s from high school, college, or from Mars. Get the best player with a top five pick.

The last time the Royals had a top five pick, they went for the guy “closest to the big leagues”. That player was Jeff Austin.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 29, 2008 3:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I know you cover KU and college baseball

is this why you feel that college guys are better? Because as billybeingbilly pointed out, we’ve done the college thing before, and it really hasn’t been all that great.

by I need more Esteban on Jul 29, 2008 4:52 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It might be part of the reason.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 5:00 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not to be an echo

but that statement about Moore’s drafting philosophy prompts me, also, to ask what you don’t like it about it so much? I’d say that clearly the biggest downside to Moore’s tenure thus far is his unimpressive record with the offense. I thought this year’s draft was exactly the kind of high-cost, high-talent draft that the Royals need to be doing more of to get more elite talents into the organization.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 2:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

agree 100%

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 29, 2008 2:44 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I do not like his focus on high school kids,

especially in the early rounds.

I do not like his focus on toolsy players. The only batters I find interesting in the Royals system are Mitch Maier, Brian McFall, Joseph Dickerson, Kaaihue, Shealy and Moustakas. I see maybe two above average players coming out of that group in the next thee years. Pretty poor harvest for a team very much in need of offense.

I do not like his preference for pitchers, especially high school pitchers. We all know the sucsess rate for high school pitchers is very low, even those take in the top-100 picks.

Just my opinion. I would do it differently. I do not like the first round high-risk/high payoff picks of the last two years. The Royals had the second and third overall picks in the last two drafts. There was no need to take a risk. I wish Moore had taken more finished college players. They cost the same, they arrive in the MLB more quickly and they carry much less risk.

We’ll see. Maybe I am wrong. So far the 2007 draft looks poor to me and we have absolutely no idea how the 2008 draft will look next year, especially given the high number of unsigned players still out there.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 2:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Higher risk, higher reward players in the first round

That is, I think, exactly what a small market team needs to draft. That’s about the only way a small market team can get a genuine star player. “More finished college players” are more likely to contribute to the major league team, but also more likely to be average contributors than stars. The Royals need to take some chances to get really good players, not play it safe and acquire league average players.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That is simply not true.

There is nothing about college players that indicates they are more likely to be average contributors at the MLB level.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

My point is that if you think the HS player has more upside, then go with him

Don’t go with the guy you think has less upside just because he’s safe, finished and polished. Like some people (Callis for one), they liked Hosmer’s upside more than Smoak’s, for instance.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 3:05 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

High School vs. College potental for greatness.

OK, so who is a great player? I just went with this year’s all-star game roster.

College Players = 26
High School Players = 22
International Players = 15

I see no reason to think that drafting high school players is more likely to produce high impact players. I believe the risk of drafting high school kids early more than offsets the slight chance that scouting will identify future greatness in an18 years old. And I especially hate seeing high school kids taken very early by a team that has many immediate needs.

That is just my philosophy. And it is why I am skeptical about Moore’s ability to draft well. We’ll see.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 3:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i swear im not making this up

don’t have the source, but i swear i read an article a year or so ago on this topic.

it concluded (of higher round draft picks, maybe top 10) more top end talent (all-stars) goes straight to the pros from high school, but a higher % of college players contribute at teh MLB level.

i think that’s what most people would expect to be true anyways

by ZeppelinDZ on Jul 29, 2008 5:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I believe you read that,

I just am not at all sure it was accurate.

Well if you find the link I hope you pass it along. I’d be interested in reading it.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 5:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rany's entire Draft series at BP.

To be honest, anyone who’s never read that series should avoid making any statements at all about what good draft strategy is in a crowd full of BP readers, so I hope you have read it and just missed that particular installment.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 29, 2008 8:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

No, I did not read that particular story.

But I have read several other articles on differing draft strategies. There is no consensus on the best way to draft players.

For a full argument as to why drafting high school kids might be a poor strategy take a look at “Money Ball.” Given the Royals situation I think favoring high school kids over college kids makes little sense. In my mind, when a team takes a high school kid in the first round they are in effect saying, "We don’t need anyone to help out any time soon, and so we can afford the double luxury of increased risk and patience." Maybe Dayton Moore got used to this approach while working for the Braves during that period when they won 14 consecutive division titles.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 9:22 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You know...

Rany’s the only person I know who actually looked through all the drafts and broke them down statistically. I’m sorry, but if you’re sourcing Moneyball for your assertions here, you’re a very poor analyst. Moneyball is the story of ONE ORGANIZATION’S philosophies. Rany did his series after Moneyball, and found that a larger percentage of college players become contributing major leaguers, but a larger percentage of A-list talent was drafted out of high school. Risk and reward.

I mean… man. You bring up Moneyball, and Teahen is the prime example of what we’re talking about. You’re not going to win with nine Mark Teahens. Three or four? Sure, if the rest of the lineup is star talent.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 29, 2008 11:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll try to track down that Rany article.

Keep in mind, Billy Bean has had a lot more sucsess than Dayton Moore and Rob Rany in developing sucsessful MLB rosters. I don’t see how you can use Bean’s legacy to prove how misguided he is in his approach to the MLB draft.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 30, 2008 12:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Have you noticed that Beane's draft approach has changed?

I think jonfmorse was pointing out that in sabermetrics, what we know evolves with new research and more information. The simplistic notion in Moneyball that drafting college players makes more sense because more of them contribute in the majors has evolved into something more complicated and nuanced. You might want to look at the two last amateur drafts by the A’s. Note how many HS players they have drafted. Clearly Beane hasn’t gotten into an intellectual rut. He keeps looking for new information and research. As he and his people learn more, their approach evolves.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 30, 2008 1:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What NY said

Also, “Billy Beane has had a lot more success” yadda yadda is a very cute Appeal to Authority. It’s also utterly irrelevant to the question of actual levels of success on the Major League stage. Even if Beane had never drafted a single high school player and all his college draftees turned out to be stars, his philosophy would not change the facts as demonstrated by Rany (except to the extent that such a wild circumstance might change the numbers themselves).

Moneyball is an excellent view into the process. The “Moneyball system” - i.e., “identifying areas where a team may maximize benefits other organizations are undervaluing” - is a wise model. The actual nuts and bolts of what went on in the Oakland A’s draft room, on the other hand, are pretty much meaningless. That draft, as it turns out, has pretty much blown chunks. Past Swisher (whose OPS+ this season is under 100), Blanton just got dumped on Philly, Teahen is Teahen, and nobody else has amounted to anything at all.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 30, 2008 2:14 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

i dont know who rob rany is...

but i would venture to guess…he’s won at least as many WS titles as billy beane…

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 30, 2008 2:34 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rob Neyer

and Rany are apparently now the same person.

And when you snipe at Beane, remember that he’s never once GM the A’s in a situation where they have money to burn.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 30, 2008 10:14 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I've heard that repeated many times

By people like Rany and others at BP. Elite HS talents are more likely to be come stars than college players.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 29, 2008 5:33 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

and that is what we need...

we dont need more mark teahens or john bucks….we need to develop a couple star players

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 29, 2008 5:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

His philosophy on so many young pitchers

Is not what I would prefer, as I think you need to hedge your bets with more of a mix, but I certainly cannot fault him too much for his selection of pitchers. He certainly seems to know what he’s doing on that end and I’ll defer to him.

I agree about the toolsiness. But he has always said pitching is the commodity of baseball, and perhaps he’s looking to build an offense more by letting other teams develop hitters, then going out and trading his excess pitching for hitting. That’s certainly a smart move if you can identify such hitters.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 29, 2008 2:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

When will he put this plan into action?

I hope soon. He seems to horde pitching, not sell it.

www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage

by James Quinn on Jul 29, 2008 2:56 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm thinking this winter

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 29, 2008 2:59 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

seems like 69 wins should be no problem

i’m as pessmisitic as they come but i think this will happen

by royalsreview on Jul 29, 2008 2:00 PM EDT   0 recs

Yes, but what about 70?

My mother's basement is better than YOUR mother's basement!!

by Royal Kingdom on Jul 29, 2008 2:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

if my math is correct

The Royals are still on pace to win 73 games this year (really 72.67, but I’m rounding up because of um, boundless optimism).

So I think hitting 70 wins will happen. It won’t happen until the last week or two of the season, but it’ll happen.

by DarthYoshi on Jul 29, 2008 2:19 PM EDT   0 recs

Yes,

I think we’ll hit 70 wins for sure.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 29, 2008 2:29 PM EDT   0 recs

75-87

I think that’s why I said at the beginning of the year, and I’m sticking to it.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 29, 2008 2:44 PM EDT   0 recs

We were on that pace last year

And then fell apart in September. If we can be merely mediocre in Sept., I like the chances for 72-75 wins.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Jul 31, 2008 12:09 AM EDT   0 recs

The good news

is that now all we have to do is play .360 the rest of the way to win 70 games. I’d argue this is close enough to a .500 team at heart that we’ve got a better chance of finishing .500 (would require playing .584 the rest of the way) then we do failing to surpass last year.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 31, 2008 12:25 AM EDT   0 recs

Yeah, we're on pace for about 74 wins right now

...which would logically mean that we have about as much chance to win 78 as we do to win 70.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 31, 2008 12:37 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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