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Critical Start for Davies Tonight

First, the numbers from Hiram's first four starts with the Royals this season:

 

IP BAA SLG-A K/BB ERA
Good Davies 24.2 .256 .344 1 1.46

 

While Davies walked as many men as he struck out (12 each) over his first four starts, he found success thanks to a low BAA and a clean slate regarding home runs. He wasn't terribly efficient (Gil meet Hiram) with his pitch count until, roughly, his fourth start, when he went seven strong against the Cardinals, and needed only 106 pitches to do so. By way of comparison, he hit 100 pitches exactly in his first start of the season against the Indians. In five innings.

Now, the data from his last two starts:

IP BAA SLG-A K/BB ERA
Bad Davies 7.2 .371 .514 0.75 9.39

You don't need to have Buzz Bissinger's impeccable integrity and wisdom to see that when your BAA rises from .256 to .371, your ERA is going to explode proportionally. In his last two starts Davies was more or less the same guy: not many walks or strikeouts. Only against the Giants and Cardinals (a second time) more balls found grass.

What's interesting is his performance this season, both good and bad, goes against what Davies has always been: a great stuff guy with control issues (you've probably heard that before). Last year with the Royals, Davies struck out forty batters in just fifty innings, but still allowed a devil's ERA (6.66) thanks to ten homers allowed and twenty six walks. Some of that high ERA was a bit of bad luck, but wholly in line with his career numbers at the Major League level. This season, he's gone from a JDLR-type to a Brian Bannister-type, and it seems likely that this is reflective of a change in approach.

Here are Hiram's career K/9 numbers:

K/9
2005 6.37
2006 7.25
2007 6.55
2008 4.18

To this point, although the data isn't without issues, according to one measure, Davies has essentially abandoned his slider, a pitch he threw 14.1% of the time in 2007, but only 1.2% of the time this season. Taking its place has been the Bannyrific change up, which Davies has thrown 21.2% of the time.

Despite the headline, it isn't really a critical start for Davies tonight. I don't think he can have much long term success on the Bannister model (don't think Banny can either, by the way) and I'll be interested to see how he does tonight.

1 recs | Comment 29 comments

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You wouldn't like Davies when he's angry

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 3, 2008 3:03 PM EDT   0 recs

So what are you thinking for Bannister?

A #4-quality SP?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 3, 2008 3:05 PM EDT   0 recs

i've been wrong on what the numbers mean before

I guess I imagine him basically continuing at the level he’s at this season… 4.50-5.00 ERA, somewhat inflated by the occassional meltdown start, sorta like a knuckleballer

by royalsreview on Jul 3, 2008 3:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Those would be the numbers of a #3/#4

I see him more as a #3 with some upside to be somewhat better than that.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 3, 2008 4:50 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

His AAA numbers were a little suspect this year also.

He had a good ERA but a ton of unearned runs and bad k/bb peripherals. I think he’s on borrowed time.

by djk royal on Jul 3, 2008 3:14 PM EDT   0 recs

Maybe its not too late to deal him

For Wlad Balentien.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 3, 2008 3:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If we're ready to start dealing...

I say we package Olivo and Mahay to the RedSox for Jed Lowrie. They need someone to replace the corpse of Jason Varitek and some relievers. We could use a young SS and they have Lugo signed for another 2 1/2 years. Done and done.

by djk royal on Jul 3, 2008 3:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think

Lowrie would probably fetch a better player than Mahay or Olivo.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jul 3, 2008 3:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Tonight's lineup: TPJ starting at SS; Aviles on the bench

The Huberization of Aviles has begun. Let the wave of indignation begin.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 3, 2008 5:25 PM EDT   0 recs

I hope the Royals are ahead and he isn't pinch hit for because they'd rather have his defense in there to hold the lead

But if they are tied or behind, I’m sure he will get pinch hit for late. Hillman has been doing that with TPJ for a long time (although he has screwed up and not pinch hit for him in some isolated instances).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 3, 2008 5:39 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Remember that time last year

where Tony Pena pinch hit and Justin Huber pinch ran? That was one of my favorite managerial moves of all time.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 3, 2008 5:55 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That was cool

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 3, 2008 5:58 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Will had a good post on that one, too.

Anyway, with any luck we can get to Olson tonight. He’s neat for a back of the rotation guy, as he mixes in the fastball at around 88-90, a nice curve, and an okay change, but he’s certainly no great shakes.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 3, 2008 6:01 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I need the Royals to get a split in this series

I know what effect a loss would have on my fan psyche. It wouldn’t be good.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 3, 2008 6:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ick

I have the line at about even tonight. I have no confidence in Hiram what with all the numbers pointing to regression.

Maybe calling him out like this will work…like me calling out Guillen for lack of OBP and then he walked twice…and probably hasn’t walked since.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 3, 2008 6:12 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The only faith I have in Davies is that he'll be an acceptable fifth starter

But that isn’t very good. So I don’t ever quite expect a good outing from him.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Jul 3, 2008 6:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Am I crazy...

or is our best lineup against LHP:

Aviles SS
Grudz 2B
DDJ CF
Guillen LF
Gordon 3B
Butler 1B
Olivo DH
Teahen RF
Buck C

Against RHP:

Aviles SS
Grudz 2B
DDJ CF
Guillen LF
Gordon 3B
Butler DH
Teahen RF
Gload 1B
Buck C

moreso about who’s in there rather than the order.

by Bart41 on Jul 3, 2008 6:12 PM EDT   0 recs

i would agree

even the only lineup change i would make in that bunch would be flipping gload and buck vs. righties. one thing i’m certain of is that any lineup that has Pena in it is one of the worst in baseball.

Never giving up on your team is what makes you a good fan.

by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Jul 3, 2008 6:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Aviles probably just needed a "mental health day"

He struggled the last two nights, so this may be a day off.

by jbrocato on Jul 3, 2008 11:13 PM EDT   0 recs

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