Lack of Offense in the Minors

by rockchalk on Jul 3, 2008 11:32 PM EDT

The Royals' strength, obviously, is pitching. It is evident in the major leagues, and is evident in the Top 10 Prospect lists that are strewn around the internets. GMDM's strong point, without doubt, is discovering pitching, and he has turned our major league staff (and minor league pitching pipeline) from arguably the worst in the majors to a top-half-of-MLB collective unit. This is all well-and-good, obviously, but no matter how good the pitching is, the offense will have to score runs.

And while we have some nice, young pieces in the majors (Gordon, Butler, DDJ, Guillen) and a couple of top draft picks, assuming Hosmer signs, that figure to be cornerstones of the future (Moustakas, Hosmer), the offensive depth of our minor league system is pretty putrid.

Going off of OPS, which I understand isn't perfect with park rates and such but it is the best I can do with MiLB statistics, here is how each of our seven minor league teams has fared thus far this season compared to the rest of their league (admittedly, for the three rookie short-season leagues it is early to make too much of a conclusion from the data, but whatevs):

Note: * means they are last in their league

League	Team	HR	Rank	OBP	Rank	SLG	Rank	OPS	Rank
AAA	Omaha Royals	105	3rd	.327	14th	.453	4th	.780	10th
AA	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	60	7th	.329	7th	.371	8th*	.701	8th*
A-Adv.	Wilmington Blue Rocks	30	8th*	.329	5th	.357	8th*	.686	8th*
A	Burlington Bees	55	T-3rd	.307	12th	.364	8th	.671	11th
R	Idaho Falls Chukars	6	8th*	.309	8th*	.355	8th*	.664	8th*
R	Burlington Royals	2	10th*	.275	10th*	.265	10th*	.540	10th*
AZL	Arizona Royals	7	T-1st	.310	7th	.396	5th	.706	6th

That is not promising information, at all. Baby Burlington and Idaho Falls are downright putrid on offense, while Wilmington and NWA are almost as bad.

I guess the point of this all is to question whether there is enough offensive firepower in the minors to be added to our plethora of pitching and form a contender in the near future. I mean, we can obviously trade for offensive talent and can sign some FA's, but the scariest part of this all is all of the lower-level teams, the rosters that are stocked with GMDM's draftees and signees, are doing pretty poorly. He needs to be able to draft offensive talent beyond first rounders (and even Moustakas isn't lighting the world on fire) for us to truly take the next step forward and become a perennial .500ish team in the AL Central.

This is open for discussion; I think this could be a big problem in the future of the Royals organization, if we can't have at least some semblance of an offensive force throughout our minors.

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Comments

The talent appears very skewed towards pitching so far.

It will be interesting to see how GMDM reconciles that.

by djk royal on Jul 3, 2008 11:37 PM EDT reply actions

There is much, much more depth in good pitching prospects

The imbalance could and should be addressed by trading some pitching for hitting.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 3, 2008 11:42 PM EDT reply actions

i really dont get why people are so impressed with our MLB pitching staff.

I know ERA is far from perfect as a measuring stick, but considering that were supposed to have a good defense, why is the 22nd best pitching staff in baseball such a positive? B/C its not 30th? Is that it?

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 12:12 AM EDT reply actions

Because we have a good, young rotation and the most important elements of the bullpen are good

You have to go beyond ERA. You have to look at peripherals and also consider age and projection.

Greinke – a current and future ace
Meche – pitched like a good #2 SP last year and after his slow start (first 6 starts), he’s pitched like that again this year
Bannister – a solid pitcher who is likely at least a decent #3 SP
Hochevar – he’s pitching like a #3/#4 in his rookie season who projects as a #2/#3 for the rest of a good, long career
Davies/Rosa – at least one is or will be a competent #5 SP (and Rosa should be better than that in the near future)

Soria – elite, dominant closer (with good SP potential)
Nunez – good, young, often dominant setup man
Mahay – very good setup man
Ramirez – very good, young usually dominant setup man

That’s a pretty good rotation right now which projects to be even better in the next few years. And that’s a great top 4 in the bullpen which only needs a couple more effective pieces. So no, they aren’t the 22nd best pitching staff in baseball.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 4, 2008 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions

the bullpen is great....no argument there

we have zack…he’s a stud.
gil has been average for about 6 years outside of two spectacular months at the beginning of last year.
banny…well, you know how i feel about him
luke…i think he’ll come around and be fine
davies sucks ass
rosa, cortes, etc….to me all project as bottom of the rotation types…none have dominating numbers in the minors

it just seems to me like current results still have us at well below average…and for us to be considered good…a ton of things have to happen and as a royals fan i am not inclined to think they will.

and if were going with the braves model, were about 3 aces short…

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions

i should correct part of that....

the ‘A’ bullpen as they call it here…has been terrific…consisting of soria, mahay, ramon and nunez….the rest of the scrubs…have been…well scrubs

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 12:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Lots to argue with there

gil has been average for about 6 years outside of two spectacular months at the beginning of last year.

I’m not quite sure why you’d go for hyperbole here when I’m sure you’ve actually looked at the stats. Since I assume we’re talking ERA here, Meche had an ERA below 4.00 in 4 of 6 months last season (and one of the other months was basically average at 4.50). This season, Meche has one bad month (April), followed by two months with an ERA below 4.00. Long story short, Meche made some mechanical changes before the 2007 season which have turned him for a #3 SP to a #2 SP. I think the remainder of the season will continue to bear this out.

luke…i think he’ll come around and be fine

For the record, I think he’s fine right now and in the future he should be better than fine.

davies sucks ass

He’s been better than an average #5 so far this season, and I think that will continue. The ERA will come up some, but he’ll continue to be an acceptable #5.

rosa, cortes, etc….to me all project as bottom of the rotation types…none have dominating numbers in the minors

Wow, this is way off. First, the entire scouting and prospect analyst community would probably disagree with you on Rosa and Cortes. Cortes was a top 50ish prospect going into this season because he projects as a possible front of the rotation starter. And before this great season, Rosa projected as a middle of the rotation starter.

Second, Rosa has had dominating numbers in the minors this year. I think you over-rely on ERA for the majors. But if you’re going primarily by ERA for minor league pitchers, you’re making a big mistake. The unreliable defenses and the fact that ERA historically is not a good predictor of MLB success for prospects mean that you shouldn’t weigh ERA very highly at all. You need to look at defense independent stats like K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. Rosa has been absolutely dominant this year. I mean just spectacular. His K and BB numbers are terrific and he hasn’t given up many HR’s. Hell, before tonight even his PCL ERA was good (and his Texas League ERA was great). Cortes dominated last year (high-A) and his peripherals this year in AA are pretty good. And he’s only 21 and in AA for the first time. They were both very highly regarded prospects going into this season and their stocks have, if anything, only gone up.

it just seems to me like current results still have us at well below average…and for us to be considered good…a ton of things have to happen and as a royals fan i am not inclined to think they will.

A ton of things have to go right for our pitching staff to become good? I think it is pretty good right now. And I think you are way off base to say that a ton of things have to go right for it to be good. That’s just wrong.

and if were going with the braves model, were about 3 aces short…

I’m not sure what the point of this is. The Royals don’t need 3 aces to have a good rotation or a good pitching staff. The Royals don’t need to become the Braves of the 90’s. I guess this is just a random shot at Moore which is fun, but pointless.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 4, 2008 1:16 AM EDT up reply actions

alot there and i dont have time to address it all right now, but if 22nd out of 30th...

in ERA for whatever its worth…is good….then i can legitimately say we were about average when we were last in the league

and yes, that was just a random fun shot at dayton…which i will continue to make until he stops bringing guys over from the braves…or at least brings us someone who is major league worthy.

oh as for davies….he’s been lucky as shit so far….i know you like the K/bb, k/9, bb/9 etc…take a look at those for davies and tell me he’s been an above average 5 starter

and bannister isnt good right now…he was good last year…

maybe we just have different definitions of good and above average and so on.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions

A few things

The first is that you really need to start looking beyond simpy ERA.

and yes, that was just a random fun shot at dayton…which i will continue to make until he stops bringing guys over from the braves…or at least brings us someone who is major league worthy.

Has he made many significant Braves acquisitions? He traded an ultra-injured low minors pitching prospect (who had his second TJ surgery this year) for Pena. And he traded a two-month rental for Davies. Pena was and is a stopgap SS and Davies is a 5th starter. It’s not like he’s selling the farm to acquire a lot of Braves for major roles. I mean, should we be upset with Moore for claiming Brayan Pena off of waivers to improve minor league catching just because B. Pena was a Brave? The whole “Moore loves to acquire Braves” BS is entirely overblown. And if anyone thinks it is significant or a real weakness, then they are fooling themselves.

and bannister isnt good right now…he was good last year…

He has the ERA of a #4 so far this year, but his peripherals are that of a borderline #2/#3 (4.32 FIP). Overall, that’s more “average” than “good,” so you’re not wrong. We’ll see what he does in the second half of the season. But if he ends up being a #3, that’s not too bad. It’s not like average #3 SP’s can just be picked up off of the scrap heap. Right now, they cost more than $10M year on the FA market.

maybe we just have different definitions of good and above average and so on.

With regard to stats, average is what it is. For ERA, average is roughly 4.50. While I would love to have a bunch of aces in the rotation, I think that is an unreasonable expectation for any rotation. I’d be happy with a #1, and some #2’s and #3’s and a decent back of the rotation guy. For instance, I think this is what we can expect next year:

Greinke #1-quality
Meche #2/#3
Hochevar #2/#3
Bannister #3
Davies/Rosa #4/#5

If the average rotation is something like this
1
2
3
4
5

Then a theoretical Royals rotation of…

1
2.5
2.5
3
4.5

...would definitely be more than a little above average and I’d say very good.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 4, 2008 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions

Davies has dodged 2 losses in 3 starts

because the Royals overcame deficits of 4 or more runs.

by jbrocato on Jul 4, 2008 6:37 AM EDT up reply actions

and as far as rosa and cortes go....

when i think of ace type prospects…i think kershaw and joba types…hell, our guys could turn out better than all of the guys ahead of them…we’ll see i guess

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, when prospect analysts think of ace type prospects, they don't just think of Kersaw and Joba

Rosa has three plus pitches plus very good control. That’s the profile of a very good starting pitcher. Cortes has two spectacular pitches (fastball and curve) and a developing change. That’s why he projects as a front of the rotation starter. Now, I’m not saying that either of these guys is going to be an ace. No prospect is a sure thing. But there is good reason to believe that both will be good major league pitchers. And there is absolutely no reason to say that they “project as bottom of the rotation types.” There is simply no support for such a contention.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 4, 2008 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions

The pitching staff...

has been pretty reliable for the Royals this year. The rotation has pretty much kept the team in every game, and the bullpen has been terrific, for the most part.

What doesn't kill us only brings us closer to death

by ksuroyals on Jul 4, 2008 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions

Just FYI

Stats probably aren’t the best way to judge prospects. Part of the equation? Yes, absolutely. Guys like Derrick Robinson (Ok, definitely him) and Jason Taylor have the TOOLS to be good players, but they aren’t performing yet. They are both 20, development is more important than performance in the low minor leagues.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Jul 4, 2008 2:25 AM EDT reply actions

I understand.

I meant to get that across, and I obviously didn’t.

Still, stats tell a pretty decent story of the entire organization, IMO, and it isn’t a pretty picture.

I was merely saying that it is a matter of concern, and that our organization is incredibly one-sided.

by rockchalk on Jul 4, 2008 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions

It's not just stats

The Royals prospects don’t get a lot of recognition from services who rank prospects-only Moustakas and Cortes show up on such. The Futures Game this year has only 1 Royal (Pimental, who wasn’t originally acquired by the Royals)-by comparison, the Cards, who don’t have what is considered a deep system, has four players. While these two things aren’t determinative and may not even be that accurate, they do reflect a sense of what that scouting side of “experts” and organizations think of our depth—not much.

WIth that said, I think seeing the Burlington Bees hitters show some pop, along with a number of guys warming up after slow starts, is promising—it’s where a lot of higher draft pick/higher ceiling types (Moose, Jason Taylor, Nick Van Stratten), recent high-draft college guys (Giavotella, Adrian Ortiz), and second-year overachievers (Clint Robinson, Kyle Martin) are all playing. The hope is that the jump to the next level is better for this group (really the first group of mostly Moore-regime guys) than last year’s squads from Wilmington to NW Ark. and Burlington to Wilmington.

Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.

by CentralChamps2009 on Jul 7, 2008 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that instead of looking at team averages

it is better to look at individual performances. It isn’t like we are looking to move the whole roster up a level, rather we are looking for individuals to move up and be better replacements. Averages might give a sense of the overall level of talent, but I’m more interested in who is the big bat that will replace Gloadie at first.

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jul 4, 2008 12:14 PM EDT reply actions

i think the argument can be summed up like this

if greinke is our ace than what is james shields to tampa bay?

Their number 3?

kazmir is a top 5 american league pitcher

david price is considered tampa’s future ace! and the best pitching prospect since felix hernandez (pedro was basically blowing him during his rehab start)

shields at 3

matt garza is their #4 and better than meche

I would take sonnastine, a guy who has given up 2 or 3 runs in his last 8 starts!

nyroyals says bannister can be a 2 when he gets pounded every other start (7 runs in 4 ip) and carlos rosa is a top of the rotation guy (gave up 7 runs in his last triple a start)

if meche and hochevar can pitch with an era in the high 3’s for the next few years our ptiching staff can be considered a little above average and that is because of nunez, ramirez and soria (mostly his potential as a future #2 starter)

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 4, 2008 4:14 PM EDT reply actions

Price has yet to justify the hype,

Garza is not their #4, Sonnanstine is a good control-bad stuff back of the rotation guy, and Shields is good #2.

Bannister is probably a #3 right now, but he could improve a bit.

nyroyals says bannister can be a 2 when he gets pounded every other start (7 runs in 4 ip) and carlos rosa is a top of the rotation guy (gave up 7 runs in his last triple a start)

I don’t see Banny as a #2 type pitcher at this point, but I see him doing a better job with his consistency going forward. Also, citing one bad start by Rosa means nothing. He’s still a prospect who could definitely be better than a #3 if things break right.

if meche and hochevar can pitch with an era in the high 3’s for the next few years our ptiching staff can be considered a little above average and that is because of nunez, ramirez and soria (mostly his potential as a future #2 starter)

I disagree in that I don’t think our pitching staff has to improve much, if at all, to be considered above average.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 4, 2008 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

that's nothing more than semantics, right?

It doesn’t matter who is #3 or #4 for the Rays—aside from Greinke, their entire rotation is better than any of our starters.

The Royals also benefit greatly from playing in a good pitcher’s park; if you look at the away stats for the club, even Greinke begins to look like a somewhat average pitcher, while the rest of the staff is nightmarish.

Of course, I’m sort of arguing a strawman myself—I know you’re not suggesting that the Royals have a better or comparable staff to the Rays, who have one of the best rotations in the AL. That said, I think you’d be hard pressed to find 7 rotations in the AL that are worse than KC’s, at least at this point. The only two I would say with any degree of certainty are bested by KC would be Baltimore and Seattle.

That’s not to say that with future contributions from Soria, Hochevar, and Rosa, the Royals can’t make it into the top half of the AL rotations, but that takes a little bit of wishcasting. As of right now, we’ve got a long way to go.

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by marbotty on Jul 5, 2008 6:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Kauffman isn't a pitcher's park

103/104 park factor.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 5, 2008 6:26 AM EDT up reply actions

you couldn't tell it from our offense

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by marbotty on Jul 5, 2008 6:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Response

It doesn’t matter who is #3 or #4 for the Rays—aside from Greinke, their entire rotation is better than any of our starters.

Well, the underlying numbers beyond just ERA suggest that Meche, Hochevar, and Bannister are likely to bring their ERAs down going forward. I think once luck evens out, we’re left with a pretty solid rotation with Greinke as the clear star. Also, I’m not sure why we’re comparing KC to the Rays to show that we have a bad rotation…the Rays’ rotation is one of the best in baseball…we could have a pretty damn good rotation and still not be as good as the Rays this year.

The Royals also benefit greatly from playing in a good pitcher’s park; if you look at the away stats for the club, even Greinke begins to look like a somewhat average pitcher, while the rest of the staff is nightmarish.

No, they don’t. The K is an above average hitter’s park. The road numbers are probably just statisical noise.

course, I’m sort of arguing a strawman myself—I know you’re not suggesting that the Royals have a better or comparable staff to the Rays, who have one of the best rotations in the AL.

Agreed. It’s silly to say we’re not very good because we don’t match up to the Rays.

That said, I think you’d be hard pressed to find 7 rotations in the AL that are worse than KC’s, at least at this point. The only two I would say with any degree of certainty are bested by KC would be Baltimore and Seattle.

I suppose that’s true right now, but it kind of doesn’t take into account that we have three starters who are probably underachieving their peripheral numbers.

That’s not to say that with future contributions from Soria, Hochevar, and Rosa, the Royals can’t make it into the top half of the AL rotations, but that takes a little bit of wishcasting. As of right now, we’ve got a long way to go.

Well in some ways, I suppose, but we’re really not all that bad off. We have a legitimate #1 starter and a guy in Meche who seems to be able to pitch like a #2 a lot of the time. If Rosa pans out-a good bet, IMO-then some combination of him, Hochevar, Bannister, and Soria could give us a very good rotation in the near future.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 5, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

also, and not to pile on

But it’s hard to say that Price isn’t justifying the hype. He’s only had 4 starts in A+ ball, but he’s been stellar: 1.14 ERA, 23 ip, 23 Ks, 3 bb, .94 WHIP

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by marbotty on Jul 5, 2008 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions

And Joe Maddon said this spring that he gave "good face"

not even joking…. although “giving” good face has some gross connotations

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Jul 5, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Being promoted to Double A after only 4 starts in Adv. A is called the Fast Track. 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA already in Double A. He’ll be in Tampa Bay REAL SOON the only thing holding him back would be the Rays not wanting to sacrifice any spots in the rotation because they are in a pennant race.

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jul 5, 2008 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, poor choice of words.

I should’ve said that while Price looks great, it’s premature to say he’s going to be a great major league pitcher. It almost always is, and GobbleforCyYoung seemed to be implying that Price was a lock. No one is a lock.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 5, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

word

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by marbotty on Jul 5, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

KC's Starters

I think the recent decline in the starters performance is the lack of defense. KC for the better part of the first two months of the season was in the Top 5 in defense they have dropped steadily and are currently in 19th. This staff of starters would have to have good defense behind them as they are not a overpowering group.

I know the park factor’s don’t state KC is a pitchers park but I have a hard time seeing that. The dimensions of the stadium are quite big with the deep alleys. What did the park factors say about Kauffman in the 80’s before juiced up players and KC’s inability to pitch? Was it not a pitchers park then either, just wondering if the current park factors are scewed due to KC’s lack of talent for the last decade.

Billy at worst will be Sean Casey jr.

by kcscoliny on Jul 5, 2008 12:02 PM EDT reply actions

Park factors

don’t always have to do with the size of park, though of course that helps. There are some parks-Wrigley comes to mind-where the wind always seems to blow out during the summer. Coors is so far above sea level that the air is thin, otherwise its dimensions aren’t all that generous to hitters.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 5, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Crazy as it seems

It was a pitcher’s park before they replaced the turf. Then it swung to the hitters, even though one would think it would work the other way around. When they made the ill-fated “move the fences in” decision, it became the second-best hitters park in the majors, behind Colorado. Back more toward the middle now, of course.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Jul 5, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions

Didn't the "move in" have a significant effect of Berroa's RoY win?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Jul 5, 2008 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions

pretty sure it did

once the fences were moved closer to where they used to be, his numbers seemed to plummet (as did half the team)

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by marbotty on Jul 5, 2008 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

I just looked at Kila Kaaihue's stat line

and immediately felt better about our minor league offense; the guy’s got nearly a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio with 20 homers in 228 at bats. OPS is over 1,000. Let’s do something with Shealy so we can move this guy up a level.

I follow the Tao of Steve (Balboni)

by jackie ballgame on Jul 8, 2008 1:00 PM EDT reply actions

Agreed

Let’s call Shealy up, DFA Gload, and give Hawaiian Punch a shot at AAA.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Jul 8, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I want that so badly

I fear Gload is going to be an everyday player for the remainder of the season.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Two more HR's tonight for Kaaihue.. batting average over .300... plz promote him

Longlorious.
Free Kila Kaaihue!

by RATW on Jul 8, 2008 11:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Could be worse

he’s signed through next season…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by Matt Klaassen on Jul 9, 2008 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions

But that does not necessarily mean that he'll be back next season

I’m not making any predictions but the fact that he’s under contract for 2009 does not necessarily put him on the 25-man roster for 2009. Moore has already shown that he understands the concept of sunk costs and is willing to cut his losses, even though he’s on the hook for paying the player (see Tomko and Berroa).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by Scott McKinney on Jul 9, 2008 2:57 AM EDT up reply actions