49-59
by Freneau on Jul 30, 2008 12:33 AM EDT
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PrintDavid DeJesus got picked off.
AGAIN
- Your Gil Meche ERA update is 4.22. On May 9th he was at 6.31.
- Mike Aviles has 24 extra base hits in 48 games.
- I don't know what's more damning: consistently hitting your 2B in the 3-hole, or having your 1B hitting ninth. If its justifiable, the roster sucks. If its not, Hillman's a silly head.
- The Royals are now one game ahead of last year's pace. Weirdly enough, they were also in fourth after game 107 last season. Guess who was in last...
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First!
And geez RR, accentuate the negative why don’t you.
WE ARE THE GREATEST TEAM OF ALL-TIME!!!!
where tpj happens.
by blue bandwagon on Jul 30, 2008 12:38 AM EDT reply actions
no doubt.
we had a good game and all you got is DJ got picked off.
AGAIN
Don't Stop Believing!
And by the way: 820 comments for a 9 pm CST game on a Tuesday night.
Congratulations to you all, Royals Reviewers. You are officially obsessed.
i cant wait for the royals to return the favor and send the A's under .500 permanently tomorrow.
REVENGE IS SO SWEET!
where tpj happens.
by blue bandwagon on Jul 30, 2008 12:39 AM EDT reply actions
Oh my god
If we win tomorrow, we’ll get to 50 wins before we get to 60 losses!
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Headline: Royals clubhouse overcomes dissension caused by ESPN Deportes reporter
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 12:44 AM EDT reply actions
Maybe this piece of yellow journalism is exactly what this team needed
78 wins here we come!!!!!111
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
That's an emotional overreaction
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
I just assumed the chairs were permanently removed from the clubhouse
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
That ESPN Deportes reporter had better hire a few body guards
JoGui is not pleased.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Know what kills me?
In typical ESPN mendacity, the story is now posted as basically “Guillen wants to be traded (but now denies it)” rather than “Guillen denies ESPN report.”
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
ESPN is resourceful
If they don’t have news, they create it.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I seriously think
ESPN essentially “talked” Favre into un-retiring, too.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
PLEASE
don’t get me started on the Favre topic.
by powderbluepower on Jul 30, 2008 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh wait..
I already got started in the game thread.
by powderbluepower on Jul 30, 2008 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
On a totally different topic, sort of, well, not really, but I was gone for a week, so
I was looking at Gordon’s monthy-by-month splits. While he hasn’t exactly lit it up in any one month (his best OPS was .809 in April/March), he actually OPSed .745 and .748 in May and June. Not good, but not horrific, either. It’s the .665 in July that has killed him. That (along with the problem with lefties) makes me wonder if July is just a slump or something. Another XBH tonight against a lefty was nice.
We were in Jamaica with some friends, the husband is a long time Royals fan. His impression is that so far in the majors Gordon’s power has been on the outside of the plate, oddly enough. Is this the case? if so, might that partly explain the excessive trouble with lefties—their relative freedom to bust him inside?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
I don't think his power has been on the outside of the plate
And I don’t think lefties bust him inside as much as they give him curves and sliders low and away. I think his power comes from RHP and LHP’s pitching him middle-in over the plate. Yes he has the occasional opposite field HR from a ball outside, but my general recollection is that this is more the exception.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
OK
I wasn’t taking a position either way. Just wondering what other people’s impressions were, or if anyone had some hard data on this
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Gordon has a hole in his swing on the inner half
I think that goes without saying…
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Is that the kind of thing that can be fixed, or at least "shrinked"
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm a clueless idiot, what can I say?
probably “nothing” is the best answer, but that ain’t going to happen
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
shrinked? is that a Canadian idiom?
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
Almost anything can be improved
...particularly in a young player. Sometimes those things do improve and sometimes they don’t.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Probably
Notice how Butler was getting jammed badly early this year, and is all of a sudden ripping the inside pitch? I’m guessing it could be fixed.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
if he knew how to win
he’d be 10-0
he can’t pitch to the score like Jack Morris
by Freneau on Jul 30, 2008 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Now that's really unfair.
Nobody could pitch to the score like Jack Morris.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
I'll crown Meche's ass
as soon as he comes up with something as good as what Morris said to Jennifer Frey in the clubhouse: “The only time I talk to a woman when I’m naked is when she’s on top of me or I’m on top of her.”
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Does anyone still think that 2007 was fluke and that he's just a mediocre #3 SP?
Also, does anyone still think that his contract was bad for the Royals?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Of course.
You can’t seriously think this organization did something RIGHT, can you? Brown-nosing apologist.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Here I go blindly defending everything the organization does again
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll admit that I've been pleasantly surprised by his performance so far
But, while I hope this doesn’t make me sound to negative, I still think it’s too early to judge the contract as a whole. I don’t mean I think it sucks. It’s just that there’s about 3 1/2 years left on it. Right now, it looks good, but 3 1/2 years is a long time for any player, especially starting pitcher. Good good for the moment.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Ok
But if he pitched like a #2 in the first year of the contract and a #2 in the second year of the contract, is there any logical reason to believe that he’ll suddenly turn to shit in the remaining 3 years of the contract? I would think that his mechanical changes which gave rise to performance (statistical) changes would give us good information to evaluate how good he is and how good he’ll be in the relatively near future. I don’t expect him to be a good #2 SP for every year of the contract, but he’s not exactly old. We shouldn’t expect great deterioration from him in his early 30’s.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions
No, and I don't think that's what horn-hands means.
If Meche shreds his labrum next week, it turns out to be a “bad” contract. (Not a bad decision, but nevertheless.) In other words, shit happens, and we can’t really say it’s a “good” contract until we’ve gotten “55 million dollars worth” of performance.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Ok
I’ll agree that we don’t know for sure if a contract was good until the contract has been fulfilled. Just as we don’t know if a draft was good or bad for 4 or 5 years (or more) and we don’t know if a trade was good until years down the line when we see what all of the players involved did for those teams. But, that doesn’t mean that we can’t analyze it now. We don’t have definitive answers now, but we can certainly draw conclusions from the available data.
Given the available data (which is not insignificant), does anyone still think that was a bad contract signing for the Royals?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions
To honestly answer that question
I’d have to do some serious number crunching and figure out whether he has, thus far, provided $15M or so of marginal value to the team.
But my gut says “of course not.”
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
$11M is roughly the FA market value of a #3 SP
That is what it has cost the last two years in the FA market to get that kind of pitcher. It will likely cost more in the future. And over those two years, Meche has pitched like a good #2 SP. So you think that wasn’t a good contract for the Royals?
If so, you’re not going to think any of the top tier FA’s this offseason are going to be worth the contracts they sign.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the problem was how your first and second sentences went together (or did not go together). You said you’d have to see if he’s provided $15M of marginal value to the team. “But my gut says ‘of course not.” I thought your second sentence was referring to your first sentence.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Nope.
I’m perfectly pleased with Gil, and you may or may not have noticed I wasn’t even ragging on him during his early-season struggles. I’m not sure the marginal value is there, but that’s no fault of HIS, and would entirely relate to the monetary value of a win to a bad team.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
I see your point about the value of a win to a bad team
And I recognize that on the face of it, the value of going from 65 wins to 75 wins isn’t that great in dollar terms (I know that it will help make the team more money, but not a tremendous amount more, particularly as compared to going from 85 to 95 wins). But, for a team building towards contention like the Royals, I think there is an additional value to adding legitimately good (and therefore costly) players. We have to attract free agents. Unfortunately, that requires more than just offering them a lot of money. Sitting tight and not acquiring Meche or Guillen would have been economically efficient, but likely would have kept the Royals as a 100-loss team or thereabouts. A win total in the mid-70’s I think will help convince FA’s that we’re not just a loser joke. We are an improving team that is not horribly far from contention and we’re a team willing to spend the money necessary to build a winner.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions
The other points are fair and important
but I was thinking strictly in terms of performance. So far, in performance terms, Meche’s contract looks good, and looks like it will be good.
JoGui’s contract, on the other hand… I guess we’ll see how the rest of the year pans out. I’m assuming he has at least one hot streak left in him. How hot, and how long it is will be interesting. His health is also an issue—how serious are the problems, and how are they effecting his performance.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I will readily admit that Guillen's contract doesn't look so good right now
I think his OPS at the end of the season will be higher than it is now, but very likely below average for a corner OFer. And he’s not at an age where he should be expected to improve over the next two years. Hopefully some team will like his raw power, his arm and maybe his fire this offseason and the Royals will trade him in time to use his money one someone useful. Of course, I have no idea if Moore has any interest in trading him. I would hope that if he ends the season with a .780 OPS, Moore will see that this is not good enough for $12M per year and want to trade him.
And then there’s the point Rany made. If he trades Guillen after only one year, maybe other FA’s won’t like that and will think that if they sign with the Royals, they’ll be traded after only one season. In that case, maybe it would be better to trade him midseason 2009. It’s something to consider. I hate dabbling in amateur sports psychology.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Thanks, morse
that is what I meant. It’s a wuss qualification, but I think it’s worth making. I like the decision/contract distinction. If by some horrific freak accident of chance Meche is done next week, it doesn’t mean that Moore sucks or something, that’s just bad luck. If it happens over and over again, then, well, that GM is making some bad evaluations. That hasn’t happened, and doesn’t look to be happening.
I think it’s been brought up elsewhere, but I don’t remember by who, but: if he keeps it up, and the Royals younger pitching is as good as we all hope (within reason), 11 million a year for a healthy #2 in his prime could go a long way in trades next year close to the deadline. Again, just saying that it might be attractive to others, not that I want to get rid of Meche. I kinda like him. yeah, part of that is because of RR’s hilarious eyebrow-related stories, but also because he’s been really good for the Royals. It was nice to see him get some run support tonight. (Especially from Gordon and every real fan’s favorite John Buck)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
everyone who can look at any stat can...
see that buck is about the equivalent offensively to olivo…and regardless of what % of CS says….a far better catcher at handling pitchers…
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 30, 2008 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I still say that you can't trust a guy
who has never sported a mullet.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I still like Meche but not the contract
Meche is a step above an average AL starter, but not higher due to his come-and-go command.
Average AL pitcher 2008 (from THT):
4.18 FIP, 4.18 ERA, 19% LD%, 44% GB%, 6.5 K/G, 3.3 BB/G, 0.95 HR/G, 10% HR/FB
Meche 2008:
3.83 FIP, 4.22 ERA, 22% LD%, 38% GB%, 6.8 K/G, 3.0 BB/G, 0.90 HR/G, 8.5% HR/FB
His FIP-related rates (BB, K, and HR rates) are all a notch above average, but the drop in GB% to below average (he was above average last year, which is out of line with the rest of his career) is a concern, as is the elevated LD% rate. He is having one of his good stretches with his command, and his velocity is back a MPH from earlier in the year, which allows him to stay competitive when his command is iffy.
He is matching the contract value when he pitches like this, which hopefully he continues to do so, but the concern with the contract is the back three years. He is at the age where pitchers tend to see their velocities decline by a MPH or so, and that could be a problem for Meche, as hitters start to catch up with some of the pitches that they foul off now and he does not have the command to keep them consistently off balance.
Quick pitching question for an ignoramous
Can someone quickly explain the difference between “command” and “control” for me again?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is a five-cent, oversimplified explanation
Control is generally the ability to throw strikes with the basic result being fewer walks. But as Brent Tomko has taught us, not all strikes are equal because some strikes are more hittable than others.
Command is generally the ability to throw strikes consistently where the pitcher wants them—in other words, control or location of pitches within the strike zone (or just out of the strike zone if the pitcher is looking for the hitter to chase the ball). The basic result with command is avoiding good contact by the batter (and thus increasing strikeouts and keeping down the number of line drives and home runs).
As command worsens, the descending progression of results would go like this:
1. Pitches that should be swung on and missed become pitches fouled off
2. Fouled off pitches become batted balls in play
3. Batted balls in play become well hit balls in play
4. Well hit balls in play become well hit balls out of play (i.e., home runs).
I have also heard it explained as the difference between accuracy (control) and precision (command), with accuracy being the ability to hit a general target and with precision being the ability to consistently hit the same area of the target.
Thanks
5 cents was about all I had
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
So, better than average in the first two years of the contract
That’s a good value in this market for $11M per year. We’ll see if he drops off significantly in the last 3 years of the contract.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
You're entitled to believe that he's merely matching the value of his contract
I, and others, disagree. I think he’s performing at a level decidedly better than the value of his contract.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 30, 2008 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Dang it
Can you smart guys all agree just for once? You know I can’t think for myself!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 31, 2008 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Majority opinion doesn't necessarily make it right
But I think the majority of the smart guys (guys like Rany) like this contract for the Royals now.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 31, 2008 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions
"The Astros really are buyers. It's kind of cute, really."
—Will Carroll
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
everytime i want to bitch about dayton...i think about ed wade....
at least i think thats his name…
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 30, 2008 2:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Ross Gload Historically Awful Watch
Ross Gload is enjoying the 8th worst season by a first baseman with at least 300 plate appearances in the Divisional era.
Guess who #1 is?
I’ll give you a hint. He managed the Royals.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Sauces?
I know Ross Gload defender is just one step above DeJesus groupie on this blog’s totem pole, but the guy really hasn’t been that bad since getting regular playing time. His power numbers stink, but he isn’t here for power.
Destined for failure.
That's not how it works.
You can’t “not be here for power” when you play first base. It’s a position you need to hit for some power at to be considered at all productive, being as far as you can get to the wrong side of the defensive spectrum other than DHing.
And…DDJ groupie >>>>>>> Gload defender. Gload is awful. DDJ is having a very good year.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
+1
It’s really too bad that DDJ plays in the same division as Grady Sizemore and Curtis Granderson…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Meche! Meche! Meche!
The epic is really looking like the guy who so pleasantly surprised a lot of us last year. Good to see that he really seems to be back throwing well.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
To answer RR's concerns:
how would everyone feel about hitting Aviles either 3rd or 4th?
Seems to be, along with DDJ, the best options for those spots on the roster. Dude’s slugging percentage is now over 500. Arguably the best shortstop in the American League.
How’s this lineup for thinking outside the box:
Grud
Gordon
Aviles
DDJ
Butler
Guillen
Teahen
Buck
Gload
Why not try it?
Heck, maybe even flip Gordon and Grud (Gordon’s better at getting on base than Grudz, sees a lot of pitches, and, at leat last year and in the minors, a good stealer), and then DDJ and Aviles (Aviles has a better ISO, I think, DDJ better on-base guy for the third spot.).
It won’t happen, of course, which is too bad. For one thing, I’m guessing Trey wouldn’t relish that conversation with Guillen…
But I don’t think it’s unrealistic to think that Aviles should hit in a better spot against lefties at least (1.089 OPS so far this year), although maybe he should be lower down against righties (765 OPS with a .312 OBP—good ISO [.154], and a better OBP than certain corner outfielders with multiple sandwich-related nicknames).
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 30, 2008 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
NO NO NO
You guys don’t get it. DDJ HAS TO lead off; he plays CF. Further, Avilanche cannot hit 3rd or 4th because he plays SS. As an exception to the rule, Gload can hit 9th because he’s not here for power.
by stuckinstl12 on Jul 30, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
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