Soria: Starter Or Closer?---A Request

by timlacy on Jul 4, 2008 7:50 AM EDT Comment 17 comments

This debate has been ongoing in fanposts and gamethreads. Regular readers will know that I prefer he remain in the closing role for:

(a) As long as we have a reliable group of starters (admittedly a game-to-game sensibility);

(b) As long as Senor Soria wants to close;

Many here at RR who care about this disagree with me. With that in mind, I wrote the following this morning:

---------------------------------------------------

Dear Joe [Posnanski],

I'm having too many debates with the Royals Review blog crowd about
Soria as a starter versus closer. If you wrote a column on this, as a
follow-up to your last KC Star column (or at least the last one
appearing at the online Star), I expect you'd get hundreds of
comments. To help fuel the fire, or settle the debate, you should
enlist your sometime buddy Bill James to add some extra baseball
gravitas to the column. I ask you to do this because I want your
column to be my reference point (meaning, last word) on the issue
until the Royals switch Soria to the starting role.

Help!

Sincerely,

Tim Lacy
Chicago, IL

--------------------------------------------

To me the key to this request is Bill James---God to the baseball stats/sabermetrics crowd. If we all write Joe, asking him to do this, perhaps he'll at least make it a long blog post. - TL

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if you think bill james...

will agree with you, , you might be mistaken

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 9:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's not...

...what I’m aiming for with the note. The idea is to inject a new voice into the conversation—-if only in a tertiary, indirect fashion. I have no idea what Bill James thinks. He probably disagrees with me. – TL

by timlacy on Jul 4, 2008 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Closer?

The idea of Soria starting is appealing, but given his TJ history, most people would rather have a healthy Soria excelling in some role rather than starting for a year or two and never being effective again.

I don’t know Papelbon’s injury history, but Bill James might choose to leave Soria as a closer also since that has been the Sox’ decision on a similar matter.

by Stat Ninja on Jul 4, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

papelbon also doesnt have dominant starters stuff.

he’s really only got like 2 pitches instead of 4. TJ history doesnt mean a whole lot anymore

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I like the idea of Soria starting

Really, I do. I imagine him having an ERA under 4.00 and staring down batters with that Abe Lincoln beard for 7+ innings at a time while racking up lots of K’s. Especially with Meche’s and Bannister’s and Hochevar’s flakiness, it would be great to forget about Hiram and have two real frontline pitchers of our own.

I’m really concerned about the possibility of an injury, though, and if Soria only turned out to be another sometimes OK/often not OK starter, then it wouldn’t be enough to justify the move since Carlos Rosa is probably ready for a look this season and more pitching depth is on the way.

For now, I’d prefer more 2-3 inning appearances by Soria to hold 1- (and maybe 2-) run leads and experiment with Ramirez or someone else picking up the 3-run leads.

by Stat Ninja on Jul 4, 2008 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've never seen...

...anyone use the TJ shorthand before. Please explain. Is it related to injury history, stamina, or what? – TL

by timlacy on Jul 4, 2008 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

tj=tommy john surgery....

i think thats the question you’re asking

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aha!

Thanks. – TL

by timlacy on Jul 4, 2008 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The number of pitches one "has" is...

...not as important as the effectiveness of those pitches over the course of a game (i.e. curve still breaking sharply) and location (i.e. fastball where wanted). – TL

by timlacy on Jul 4, 2008 1:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

which is precisely why he should be moved into the rotation in about 3 or so....

itd give him 10-12 starts, with the last 5 or 6 being legitimate full strength starts to see if theres a good chance that he’ll be a good starter. if it is apparent that he wont, we have a great closer for the next 6 years. if he does look to be a good starter, we have a stud starter at waaaaaaaaaaay under market value for the next 6 years, which is more valuable than the closer.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But stamina...

...can be built up over the winter and during spring training. It doesn’t have to mess with our current season. – TL

by timlacy on Jul 4, 2008 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we arent going to compete this year....

and if by some chance we are, what i said goes out the window.

however, we could in theory compete next year…we dont want to begin the year experimenting with something that may or may not work. the benefit to doing it this year is that soria has winter and spring to adjust/not adjust to what his role will be. theres no downside to letting him start the end of this season just like the royals did with zack last year…there was talk of keeping him in the pen too

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jul 4, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Without Soria in the rotation

and barring future trades/FA acquisitions, I would probably project the 2009 opening day rotation as Meche, Greinke, Banny, Hoch, and Rosa (unless Davies’ control starts improving significantly, I think Rosa will eclipse him easily). The key here is Rosa—Hoch and Banny have been wildly inconsistent this year (they have been either brilliant or awful without a lot of in between), but they both are adequate #3/4 starter-types, and I don’t see either Hillman or Moore giving up on them in the near future.

So, the real question is, does Soria represent a better potential starting pitcher than Rosa in 2009? And I’m honestly not so sure if that is the case. Rosa has been absolutely dominating almost every level of competition since August of ‘07 and stacks up well against Soria in many ways—both guys have at least three plus pitches, Rosa has better velocity but worse control, etc.

Maybe this means in 2009 ST that Banny is the odd guy out (an unlikely scenario, I think, but it is possible). But basically, what I am aiming for with this post is, who do you see Soria replacing in the 09 rotation? My money would be on Davies/Rosa.

by DarthYoshi on Jul 4, 2008 2:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

well put

by royalsreview on Jul 4, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Based on Bannister's...

...last two starts, I’d concur that he’s a strong candidate for being the odd man out. ...Man, has he stunk up the ballpark. – TL

by timlacy on Jul 4, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure who he replaces in the rotation

But really, excluding Greinke, Soria would probably be at least a run better per game than any of the remaining players, so I don’t think it matters a whole lot who goes to the pen.

Here’s how I see the two rotations:

Without Soria
Greinke 3.50
#2 Starter 4.50
#3 Starter 4.50
#4 Starter 4.75
#5 Starter 5.00

With Soria
Greinke 3.50
Soria 3.50
#3 Starter 4.50
#4 Starter 4.50
#5 Starter 4.75

I’m probably being to generous to our #4 and #5 starters, whoever they may be, but even using this optimistic view of the rotation, it looks clear that Soria would be a huge boost to the rotation.

The question, then, is whether there will be a huge drop in performance in the closer’s role?

I think between Ramirez, Nunez, and Mahay, (and Rosa) we should have it covered.

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Jul 5, 2008 5:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs