Reshaping the Roster, A Retrospective: Part I The Position Players
With the trade deadline looming and the continued pursuit of the roster/organization on everyone's mind it's worthwhile to take a look at the moves Dayton Moore has already made. Part I takes a look at how the position players with the big club. Stay tuned for Part II (big league pitchers) and Part III (minor leaguers).
It was 2006, Lebanon and Israel were doing their thing, FEMA did a "heckuva job" in New Orleans and the Royals were supposedly beginning an era of competence (as per Posnanski after Opening Day) thanks to a bizarre December spending spree that brought in Mark Grudzielanek, Doug Mientkiewicz, Joe Mays, Paul Bako and Reggie Sanders. (Vintage RR posts here and here.) Meanwhile, the franchise was a full season behind the Beltran trade and preparing for the Jackson County Stadium Tax Subsidy Vote. In a stunning coincidence, Bud Selig "promised" Kansas City an All-Star game pending a proper allocation of JC's limitless public monies.
To a surprising extent, the 2006 lineup, as Moore more or less inherited it, remains the 2008 edition. You can find good teams that have had more turnover than this:
| 2006 | 2008 | |
| C | Buck | Buck |
| 1B | Mientkiewicz | Gload |
| 2B | Grudzielanek | Grudzielanek |
| 3B | Teahen | Gordon |
| SS | Berroa | Pena |
| RF | Sanders | Teahen |
| CF | DeJesus | DeJesus |
| LF | Brown | Guillen |
| DH | Sweeney | Butler |
| B-C | Bako | Olivo |
| Bench | Graffanino | Gathright |
| Bench | German | German |
| Bench | Stairs | Aviles |
| Bench | Costa | Callaspo |
The 2006 Royals went 62-100.
You can quibble with some of these slots as they are crudely defined here -- for example, I'm considering Gathright a bench player in the table above, although he's actually played more innings in CF than anyone else -- but for quick and dirty purposes these are the positions according to the organizational masterplan for the two seasons. As in Gathright's case, for some of the players "bench" may not be quite the right label, but more or less it works, and I've included only the additional players who logged significant playing time.
What stands out is how much holdover there has been. Three of the positions are exactly the same, although perhaps not without some controversy. Buck is still the primary catcher, Grudzielanek is still at second base and DeJesus is still in center. Moreover, Mark Teahen remains an everyday fixture in the lineup, although he's shifted from third base to the outfield, and Esteban German is still a utility player. When you factor in that Alex Gordon and Billy Butler, lineup cornerstones if everything goes well, are also Baird-era draftees, the 2008 lineup remains a very Allard creation.
Subjectively and intuitively, the 2008 edition should be better than their 2006 progenitor: the holdovers (Buck, Teahen, DeJesus) should be hitting their peaks, Emil Brown has been upgraded to Jose Guillen and a decline-phase Mike Sweeney has been converted to supposed prospect and pure hitter Billy Butler. Miguel Olivo is a huge upgrade over Paul Bako. Unfortunately, the sum of their parts just hasn't quite added up to being much more better than the Minky era. The 2006 team ended up averaging 4.67 runs per game, better than the current squad's 4.06 average.
Huh?
To start, the holdovers, DeJesus somewhat excepted, have failed to truly break out. Grudz and German are still around and are, as the man sang, still the same. We wait still on Gordon and Butler to truly arrive. Seemingly really easy upgrades at SS and 1B have turned into, umm... Tony Pena Jr. and Ross Gload. This bears repeating. Just find someone better than the worst overall player in the game (Berroa) and one of the weakest first basemen (Minky). He couldn't do it. Where have you gone Doug Mientkiewicz? Jose Guillen has had one insanely awesome month and two bad ones. Finally, although Miguel Olivo has out-hit Paul Bako, Dayton Moore's first big league pickup, Joey Gathright, has eaten up a ton of playing time over the last three seasons and consistently failed to hit. In 237 plate appearances this year, Gator has three extra-base hits. Three. In 248 last year, he had eight. Gains like the Bako/Olivo and the Brown/Guillen exchanges have been mitigated by players like Gathright.
Over the last few months there's been a persistent meme that Moore is focused on rebuilding -- really, "building" should be used throughout this post, since it was so long ago that anything around here was actually built -- the organization's pitching coffers, and that the lineup will be more of a patchwork project. And while it isn't yet clear that the team's lineup core is actually enough of one to bother building around, it was certainly more than there was among the hurlers. Sure, in 2008, Butler and Gordon are disappointments, but they are near locks to improve, at least a little bit. There are problems however, and Moore is not immune criticism for his utter failure to upgrade the roster at two slots, SS and 1B, that looked to be no-brainer/any AAA lifer would have been better. He hasn't found better bench options than what Allard managed in Stairs/Costa/Graffy and it's possible he's done worse.
Lastly, there's the large but mysterious issue of defense. The quality of the team's defense is harder to definitively pin-down, but according to BP's defensive efficiency data, the 2008 squad is, relative to competition, an improvement. Then again, the 2006 team was terrible, posted a D-Eff of .682, good for 28th best in baseball and 13th in the AL. The current team stands at 19th overall and 9th in baseball. (Although the pure number, .698, is not much different.) So regarding defense, Moore has taken a terrible team and produced a below-average one.
The Royals hired Moore on May 31, 2006 and after over two years of his stewardship, the offense is worse than the bad one he inherited. Considering that he also had nothing to do with Butler or Gordon, and with no notable position prospects in the system, we must conclude that Dayton's handling of the position players in blue and white has been akin to Argentina's performance in the Falklands War: at best, a disappointment, and at worst an abject failure.
3 recs |
77 comments
Comments
Time to lighten up, RR
George Brett isn’t walking through that door! Carlos Beltran isn’t walking through that door! Chipper Jones isn’t walking through that door (unless we’re in a Hooters)!
Jeff Francouer might be, though… (shudder)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Jul 7, 2008 1:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh yeah
Costa Now!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Jul 7, 2008 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why does he have to lighten up
He is right! The progress we have made is minimal. I’d say 30 to 50 percent of our roster could and will never be a part of a winning team because they themselves are more preventing than allowing a team to succeed.
Why must we assume a great player will not come to KC….HELLO!!!...If a great one doesn’t come then we will never get better! If you either just hold on to mediocre players or replace mediocre players with their twin brothers then your team doesn’t improve! It stays the same or gets worse.
Who on our team is playing to the caliber of the players who represent playoff baseball? We can’t just assume decent players will end up being good. Decent players usually just stay decent. We need a turnover. Mark T, Gathright, Pena, Shealy, Gload have all had their chances and should be replaced immediately. (in various forms, I think Mark should be the 4th outfielder and we should sign Holliday or another quality bat)
Too often we compare our players only against eachother. We can’t get rid of so and so because he is our best outfielder or infielder or hitter or whatever. Well actually yes we can. If he is not up to major league standards than get a new freakin player. Joey Gathright is not up to mlb standards. If we don’t feel one of our players in the minors can do a better job than we need to bring in a new player from another organization because there is no point in wasting all the AB’s that Gathright is getting.
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
by tcon125 on Jul 8, 2008 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Um, no offense, but I think it was pretty obvious I was joking. Maybe that's just me.
If the Hooters reference doesn’t clinch it, I don’t know what does. But, as a wise man once said, “u never know.”
Love the passion, though.
I wish Gathright was half as capable as a baseball player as he was a raw athelete. Alas, that will never be. (well, until his atheltic skills decline rapidly as age/injury takes its toll)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Jul 8, 2008 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I keep pointing this out in odd places
As far as I’m concerned, Gathright’s only problem is that he can’t drive the ball… and the annals of major league history are littered with fast guys whose SLG took awhile to catch up to their OBP. I’m too lazy to dig for it right now, but it would not surprise me if Gathright is among the team leaders in P/PA. I know for a fact he leads the team in foul balls per PA. That his OBP is abysmal, then, must be a direct result of his inability to drive the ball.
I think it might be a solvable problem - weights, lots of BP - and as such, although I think he has no business eating up PA pretending to be a starting CF right now, we shouldn’t completely give up on him yet.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on Jul 8, 2008 4:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does he have options?
Could he be sent to the minors to work on that? (Along with TPJ?)
by stlfan on Jul 8, 2008 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No
He has no options left.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 8, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the lineup does look like it has a better future than it did in 2006
but again, other than the Emil/Guillen swap, I’m not sure Dayton is to credit for any of that
by royalsreview on Jul 7, 2008 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, Moore did not trade Butler for Yuniesky Betancourt
Other than Bulter and Gordon, Moore had no leftover position player prospects to help out even as stopgaps, which is what happens when the previous administration basically goes 1 (David DeJesus) for 300 with draft pick after the first round. He should get some credit for not filling in all of the holes with expensive but mediocre free agents.
But, yeah, 1B and SS were holes two years ago, then last year, then this last offseason, and still today. Shealy was a right idea that just did not work out, but Moore seemed to stop trying after that. Adding a 1B to replace Gload and another OF to take most of Gathright’s plate appearances really should not be that hard. And sitting Callaspo on the bench at the expense of his development in favor of Pena made no sense at all.
by Gopherballs on Jul 7, 2008 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
1 for 300 may be charitable
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on Jul 7, 2008 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Puts it into perspective
as to why this team that always seems to be so close to that cusp of turning the corner to a .500 ball club (when looking at it in the pre-season) has yet to do so for several years.
by stlfan on Jul 7, 2008 1:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
every year Teahen/DDJ etc
sound so good in ST…
and then…
by royalsreview on Jul 7, 2008 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DDJ
Hasn’t done anything this year to merit negative reaction. He’s improved from last year’s down year and is an above-league average CF. Teahen, on the other hand, is starting to merit worrying about being a disappointment—part of that can be the handling of him, basically turning him into a supersub by leaving him without a true positional home.
I think the entire Teahen issue shows a problem—the Royals have been invested in “seeing what the younger guys can do” and thus missed out on signing the undervalued spare free agent, e.g., committing to Ryan Shealy at 1B when Carlos Pena was available for a song. Shealy, while often hyped by the mainstream of the Royals media machine (website, radio) as rediscovering his power, is probably a wash at this point. Teahen’s value was at his highest when he was still a 3B with power potential and now doesn’t its hard to justify his filling the position he has with below average production.
With that said, we used to complain about the various league-average-or-less stopgaps that the Baird regime (Knoblach, T-Long, the second coming of Michael Tucker, and most of the 2006 crop) kept giving us while talking about rebuilding. Moore is generally letting these younger guys prove whether they belong or not before making a decision on them. He’ll pursue higher value free agents (whatever else you think of him, Guillen was one of the top OF available this year, and Moore seriously went after Hunter and Jones, so it could have been far worse) instead of bringing in marginal guys-that means we’ll fill the slots more slowly, but they’ll get filled. Next year’s outfield of Guillen/DDJ/big free agent (I fully expect Teahen to be elsewhere next year) will be better than this year’s Guillen/DDJ/Teahen/Gathright combos of this season. But until the system shows that it can develop offense and then starts to stockpile those guys (for perspective, this is really the sixth year of Tampa Bay’s (re)building following five years of suck-we’re in year 2), the slow building with good free agents will be the plan for now. It’s not necessarily a bad one.
Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.
by CentralChamps2009 on Jul 7, 2008 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teahan
I think that Teahan would be a great back up LF, RF, 1B, 3B…but if some other team wants him in a deal that helps the Royals for now, and the long term, then you let him go in a heartbeat.
by stlfan on Jul 8, 2008 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd think someone who's a Royals fan 156 games a year
could spell “Teahen” correctly. (And don’t claim it’s a typo, since you misspelled it the same way twice within five words.)
Maybe it’s because 162 games a year, you listen to Mike Shannon mispronounce it.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on Jul 8, 2008 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, DDJ not good enough for you this year?
What on earth do you want from him? .316/.373/.482/.855 from a CFer. And you’re disappointed? Have you ever considered how spectacular the Royals would have to play for you to actually be impressed by them?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
now, the pitching has improved...
but that’s Part II
by royalsreview on Jul 7, 2008 1:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
from worst in the league to not very far from worst in the league?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 7, 2008 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i'm tired of these guys
i really wish there was more turnover and more legitimately different layers
out with minky, in with gload
but don’t worry, Shealy is the real deal
right
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on Jul 7, 2008 1:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
want more turnover?
We St. Louisans will give you Kennedy AND Izturis for Grudzielanek…because 2 is better than one, right?
by stlfan on Jul 7, 2008 1:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
can we get Aaron Miles too?
I wanna know what love is, I want you to show me
by LeoBloom on Jul 7, 2008 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
For those who think that I always defend Dayton Moore
Considering that he also had nothing to do with Butler or Gordon, and with no notable position prospects in the system, we must conclude that Dayton’s handling of the position players in blue and white has been akin to Argentina’s performance in the Falklands War: at best, a disappointment, and at worst an abject failure.
I largely agree with this. But, for whatever its worth, I think his failure (so far) at improving the offense has been more about inaction than mistake. The vast majority of his moves (FA, trade and draft) have been about improving the pitching both in the majors and throughout the organization. Off the top of my head, the only significant moves he’s attempted with regard to improving the offense have been signing Guillen, trading for Shealy and trading for Callaspo. I still like the first and third move and the second hasn’t worked out. That’s about it.
The Royals are still (re)building. Hopefully Moore needs to understand that the pitching has by now been completely rebuilt. Except for a tweak or two here or there, the job is done. It should now be all about the offense. This offseason, he will either significantly improve the offense, or prove that he’s only half of a good GM. The reason I’m not bashing Moore for not having rebuilt the offense yet is that I think he plans to. In his rebuilding plan, I think he prioritized pitching. He wanted to add a big position player like Torii Hunter in the offseason, but that didn’t work out. I would imagine that he now sees that he has some significant holes in the lineup to fill and will work hard to do so between now and opening day 2009.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I would bet
We see a flurry of trades this winter. He’s been patiently waiting, evaluating, building a system. Now that the team has shown significant improvement, its time for him to really make his stamp on the organization and make the trades necessarily to catapult us forward. I think this could be the off-season that makes or breaks his GM tenure.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 7, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed that this is a key offseason for him
But I don’t think I’d expect a flurry of trades. We don’t have enough tradable pieces for a flurry. I suppose he could trade pieces of the core, but I doubt he’d trade more than one of those.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i feel like a major, somewhat jarring trade could happen
possibly involving DDJ or some other major piece
by royalsreview on Jul 7, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's a definite possibility
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
DDJ for Yuniesky Betancourt!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Jul 7, 2008 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone want to do a side-by-side VORP comparison of those lineups?
My sneaking suspicion, and I think someone brought up the point the other day, is that our crap this year, is worse than our crap in 2006. That is, the worst 3-4 players in our lineup are bigger offensive black holes than our worst 3-4 players in 2006.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 7, 2008 11:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Too bad this club was so awful when he took over.
No pitching at any level (minors or majors). He’s addressing that. Hitting is just status quo until the pitching gets built up. Time to change his focus now. This definitely is a key year for GMDM and the Royals.
by djk royal on Jul 7, 2008 11:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can see both sides - RRs, and NYRs
I too, am frustrated with the pace of development on the offensive side; however, Moore has admitted how much he values pitching, and the good he has done has been totally on that side of the game, so in a way he has done what he said he would do. (although I don’t necessarily agree with NY’s statement that the pitching has been rebuilt. Bannister has regressed, and I think that means we may have only 2 above avg pitchers in the rotation going forward. This is another good reason to move Soria to the rotation).
Unfortunately, I have to go back and beat the dead horse again:
I think we all have underestimated just how much damage Glass’ management style did to undermine this team for the long-term, and I think we won’t be able to judge Moore fairly for several more seasons, at the very least.
Honestly, Glass is the culprit for me. If you neglect scouting and player develpment for over a decade, and the average prospect takes 4-5 years to make the majors, then isn’t it logical that it will take 4-5 years just to get the franchise to the STARTING POINT where good organizations are at all times?
by loyal2sdad on Jul 7, 2008 12:24 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Had to Rec that.
This organization was at rock bottom when Moore took over. There will be no quick fix.
by djk royal on Jul 7, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
2 above average pitchers in the rotation
I don’t necessarily agree with NY’s statement that the pitching has been rebuilt. Bannister has regressed, and I think that means we may have only 2 above avg pitchers in the rotation going forward.
Let’s say, for the sake of argument that this is true. How many above average SP’s does a rotation need. I would think that the average MLB rotation has two above average SP’s (#1 and #2, with #3 being roughly average and #4 and #5 being below average pitchers). A theoretical rotation with two above average pitchers (Greinke and Meche) two average pitchers (Hochevar and Bannister) and one below average pitcher (Rosa, Davies) is clearly above average. And I think that rotation projects well going forward, considering that all of those players are under 30 years of age and 3 of the 6 are 24 or younger. One should expect improvement from Greinke, Hochevar, and Rosa at the least (with Rosa projecting as at least an average pitcher eventually).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Greinke, Hoch, and Rosa can't be attributed to Moore
So, we’ve got Bannister and Meche. (Davies looks like DLR v2.0).
Meche is the most expensive player we’ve ever had, and he’s looking to be average to above average (but not great.) Honestly, it’s hard to give Moore a whole lot of credit for that signing. If you spend that sort of money, anything less than what Meche has provided would be a huge disappointment.
Acquiring Bannister was a brilliant move. Hopefully, he’ll turn it around, as expected (I think we both had pre-season projections of around 4.50 – 4.60?) But this one singular move isn’t enough to get me too excited about Moore’s chances of success as GM.
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The post to which you are replying wasn't about Moore; it was about the quality of the Royals rotation
But this one singular move isn’t enough to get me too excited about Moore’s chances of success as GM.
It would be hard for me to imagine any combination of moves wich would get you excited about Moore’s chances of success as a GM.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
here's what would do it
1. Trade Cortes or Moustakas and a low pitching prospect for Josh Willingham.
2. Trade Meche and/or Teahen for Brandon Wood (or Brignac? Lowrie?)
3. Sign Dunn or Burrell in the offseason
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok
Those sound like fine moves, but it’s not like we know those are all doable. It’s not like the only thing standing between us and those moves happening is Moore’s will to make it happen. Are the Marlins really willing to trade Willingham for a player that isn’t likely to help them until 2011 at the earliest? We don’t know if any of those deals are doable. With regard to the FA signings, I’d be happy to sign either of them. We’ll find out if Moore is interested.
But you have to admit that you are very critical of Moore. You don’t even want to give him credit for doing a good job rebuilding the pitching in the majors and minors. He’s done a spectacular job in that regard, and done very, very little with regard to hitting.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
they probably aren't all doable
I think Willingham is expendable, especially with Maybin coming up. I think he could have a Quentin-esque breakout away from Florida.
2 is the move I’m not sure we could pull off, but I think it may be necessary if we want #3 to happen (hopefully I’m wrong there about our budget.)Anyway, I’ll be the first to admit I’m critical of Moore. I did give him credit below for making some good trades and improving the overall quality of our major and minor league pitching – I just think sometimes he gets too much credit around here for building pitching, when he’s given up some pitching and gotten back pretty much nothing in return.
I think our main area of disagreement is the level of quality of pitching we’ve given up - I think it’s much higher than you’re giving credit, but there’s no real sense debating that now.
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Budget
2 is the move I’m not sure we could pull off, but I think it may be necessary if we want #3 to happen (hopefully I’m wrong there about our budget.)
There’s no question that with the money coming off the books and the increased revenue the Royals are getting from MLB, the Royals will easily be able to afford a top tier FA this offseason, including either Dunn or Burrell.
I think our main area of disagreement is the level of quality of pitching we’ve given up – I think it’s much higher than you’re giving credit, but there’s no real sense debating that now.
The pitching we’ve given up in trade. Like Sisco, Burgos, Buckner and Howell? Hard to be too heartbroken about losing those four.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
my criticism was leveled primarily at trades involving hitters
and yeah, i’m upset we gave up Howell for Gathright. His FIP is as good or better than Greinke’s this year. I know you like to dismiss his success as a result of being in the pen, but he’s young enough that he could make a legitimate transition back to the rotation and perform well.
Buckner was probably our best pitching prospect, but I liked that trade.
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
and yeah, i’m upset we gave up Howell for Gathright.
I don’t like that trade either, but I don’t think we should expect greatness from Howell. He is what he is: a pretty good lefty reliever.
I know you like to dismiss his success as a result of being in the pen, but he’s young enough that he could make a legitimate transition back to the rotation and perform well.
As you know, it is easier to succeed in the pen than in the rotation. Many pitchers can succeed as relievers but not starters. He really doesn’t have the multiple quality pitches to be a decent SP.
Buckner was probably our best pitching prospect, but I liked that trade.
I don’t think any good prospect analyst thought Buckner was our best pitching prospect when that trade was made. IIRC, according to BA, BP and Sickels Buckner was a distant third behind Hochevar and Cortes (two pitching prospects with legitimately good upside). Buckner’s upside was and is decidedly limited. And he’s failing to impress this season. In AAA he has a 4.27 ERA but with really unimpressive peripherals (61 k and 38 bb in 105.1 ip).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
More on Howell
I’ll let it rest after this, but this should sort of encapsulate why I am critical of Moore.
In 2006, our major needs were shortstop, pitching, and 1B.
Moore’s first trade with the team was to deal a 22 year old pitcher to Tampa Bay for a CF. On the surface, this didn’t make a whole lot of sense, but when you considered that our best offensive player was already playing at that position, it was somewhat dumbfounding.
Then, Moore spends $55 million on Gil Meche. Meche has been pretty good, but check him out compared to Howell the last few years. (And I’ll use FIP because that seems to be your preferred stat.)
Meche
2005 5.36
2006 4.48
2007 3.67
2008 4.65
Howell
2005 5.13 as starter
2006 4.07 as starter
2007 4.84 as starter (does BABIP factor into FIP? Howell’s was .379)
2008 3.54 as reliever
These numbers look pretty similar to me, but if you want to be charitable and say Meche’s FIP is better overall, that’s fine. But is it $11 million/ yr better?
And was it worth giving up to get a backup CF who can’t slug over .350?
So, yeah, that’s primarily my problem with Moore. He blows money for players he can fill internally, and then he trades good pitching away for guys at positions where he already has similarly capable (or better) players.
Even now with the Callaspo trade, which I loved, it seems like he made that same mistake. If Callaspo was traded to be the new shortstop or second baseman, then it was worth giving up Buckner. But it looks like, at least based on Hillman’s usage, that Callaspo was brought in primarily to fill the utility infielder role.
And if that is the case, then it doesn’t make any sense, and I believe it should make people think twice about whether Moore deserves the reputation he has as a “pitcher-stockpiler” or whatever. While he does deserve credit for the good moves he’s made, I don’t think what he’s been giving up (and more importanty, why?) has been really looked at critically by too many people.
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Howell, yet again
I don’t have any one preferred stat. As I say at least once a week on this site, I think one has to take into account ERA and peripherals (and FIP is a good metric encapsulating some key peripherals), and, if possible the batted ball data.
One of the things that makes comparing Meche to other pitchers over a large sample size of multiple years is that I think when Meche changed his mechanics before the 2007 season, he became a significantly different and better pitcher than he had been before. After Meche’s first 6 starts of the 2008 season, he’s back to being roughly the same pitcher he was last year.
I’m not sure where you got Meche’s FIP, because those are different from the FIP that fangraphs.com lists for him.
Meche
2005 5.04
2006 4.63
2007 4.02
2008 4.07 (before today’s start)
But I don’t think we should look only at FIP. Factor in ERA and you have a significantly better pitcher in Meche. Is it $11M better? Probably not, but FA’s cost a lot of money. And the Royals needed to go out and spend some money to improve the team and Meche was a good choice. And when you’re the Royals, you have to overbet the pot to get any good FA.
He blows money for players he can fill internally
That’s an exaggeration. As a starter, Howell can’t come close to filling Meche’s shoes. And people whined about Mahay and he’s been tremendous (do you think Musser could have been anywhere near as good as Mahay this year?) And I don’t fault Moore for trying Tomko on a one-year deal when the team was well under budget. The Royals definitely needed some SP depth.
and then he trades good pitching away for guys at positions where he already has similarly capable (or better) players.
Again, quite an exaggeration. Were you really comfortable with German as the 2B of the future (as in, the next several years?) He’s not exactly young anymore and his defense at second base is poor. I have no problem with Moore using a guy like Buckner to get a genuine upgrade for the future at 2B. I agree that the Gathright trade was poor.
I think that statements like “He blows money for players he can fill internally, and then he trades good pitching away for guys at positions where he already has similarly capable (or better) players” are wildly overblown and draw an unfair conclusion from a very small sample of transactions.
But it looks like, at least based on Hillman’s usage, that Callaspo was brought in primarily to fill the utility infielder role.
I have no idea where you get that conclusion from. When Grudz is gone, Callaspo will be the 2B (assuming he’s off the DL). Callaspo has been used as a UI because Grudz is still on the team. Callaspo was brought in to replace him, particularly for 2009 and beyond.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Just a note
Wood’s stock has rightfully dropped a great deal—I don’t know about his defense, but I think the “his bat can play anywhere” ship has sailed…. way too many Ks. It’s starting to look like he’ll be lucky not to be the next Dallas McPherson.
Briganx maybe has a better chance of being decent, but 2006 is a long time ago.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Jul 7, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The only reason I'd be willing to trade Meche for Wood, Brignac or Lowrie
...is because if we free up that much money, I’m confident that Moore can use that money to help the team. In short, one of those young players + $10.5M is worth more to the Royals than Meche.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also, we have aviles or pena there in 2009
not sure if aviles is the real deal, but if he is, he can always move over to 2B and we’ll upgrade at two positions
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd feel better about Brignac or (especially) Lowrie
It isn’t clear to me (and I mean I really don’t know) if Wood can play SS - the Angels are pretty good at jerking prospects around - maybe he was just blocked by the Angels usual mediocore “fast” guys with no pop (Izturis, Aybar) which would be stupid even for them, or maybe he really can’t cut it defensively at SS (and we know how well borderline defensive MIs fare under HillMoore).
That’s all I meant, just that I wasn’t sure about how Wood would fit on the team if he can’t cut it as SS, because 3B is taken, and his bat isn’t as appealing outside of the MI as it looked three years ago.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Jul 7, 2008 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a Wood fan
In addition to the defense question, he currently profiles like Dallas McPherson or Joe Borchard as a guy who does not make enough contact for his power to matter or walk enough to keep him in the lineup in between occasional power blasts. Wood only has one more option year, and there is a good chance that he will not be major league ready by the end of next year. Like McPherson and Borchard, I think there is a not insignificant chance Wood eventually sees the waiver wire.
by Gopherballs on Jul 7, 2008 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
(insert TPJ refernce about Moore loving to trade for guys right before he can get them on waivers)
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Jul 7, 2008 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Getting anything at all for Ambiorix Burgos
excites me about Moore’s chances as a GM. The fact that Banny looked great last year is icing on the cake; that he could sell that blown save machine to anyone is a major credit to him, IMHO.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Jul 7, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
People who still expect Burgos to be a pretty good major league pitcher absolutely baffle me
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he had a very good 2007
so I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibilities.
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, I don't think his 2007 was very good
If you only look at ERA (3.42), then yes it was pretty good. But his peripherals gave him a FIP of 4.68. He kept his ERA down with a freakishly lucky BABIP of .227. That’s 45 points lower than his expected BABIP of .272. And it’s not like he was keeping his BABIP with lots of groundballs, as his GB% was only 28.8%. On top of that, he did this in the weaker league with half of his games in a pitcher’s park. Taking all of that into account, I don’t know if that’s even a mediocre season. And I doubt he’s going to be better coming post-TJ surgery.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
let's also not forget
Moore hasn’t traded away hitting to acquire those pitchers, he’s traded away pitchers to acquire them. So, while he’s generally upgraded the pen and rotation, he did give up some pitching in return.
In general, though, he’s acquitted himself quite well with those moves. The number of “promising” pitchers he’s acquired through trade is about 5 (Ramirez, Bannister, Cortes, Pimental, and B. Johnson.) That’s very good, considering he was trading away rent a players like Dessens and MacDougal, or guys with some control issues in DLR and Burgos. Burgos will probably be the only one of that group with a chance of being decent in the future, so that’s a big win for Moore.
The problem, then, is with Moore’s other type of trades. We’ve brought in Gload, Gathright, Pena, Shealy, and Callaspo—all of whom, at this juncture, look to be below average players. (There’s still hope for Callaspo, but the clocks running out.). However, to get these guys, we’ve given up three promising pitchers in the process: Howell, Buckner, and Cordier.
So, he hasn’t really built up our pitching as greatly as it would seem, at least through trades. Overall, we’re looking at a possible net gain of 2 useful pitchers.
So, that’s not really something to be upset about —but the worrisome part is that, if pitching is the currency of baseball, as Moore contends - when we’re trading pitching for pitching, we’re coming out slightly ahead, but when we’re trading pitching for hitting, we’re only getting back pennies on the dollar.
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The problem, then, is with Moore’s other type of trades. We’ve brought in Gload, Gathright, Pena, Shealy, and Callaspo—all of whom, at this juncture, look to be below average players. (There’s still hope for Callaspo, but the clocks running out.)
I completely reject the notion that Callaspo looks to be below average or that the “clock is running out.” He’s got a good OBP now in little playing time. If he’s allowed to play everyday, he’ll be at last a league average 2B.
However, to get these guys, we’ve given up three promising pitchers in the process: Howell, Buckner, and Cordier.
Howell looks to be a pretty good lefty reliever, and that’s all. Cordier hasn’t been promising for a long time. One major knee injury and two Tommy John surgeries. He’s only a little more promising as a MLB pitcher than I am. And Buckner projects as a back-of-the-rotation pitcher or reliever. His promise is very, very limited.
So, he hasn’t really built up our pitching as greatly as it would seem, at least through trades
Moore has done a great job of building up the pitching in the organization through trade, the draft and free agency. It isn’t just trades, but I don’t know why that is important.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
trades are important, because we're small market
We probably only have one Guillen-sized contract left in the budget.
If Moore never develops the ability to trade for hitting, we’re likely doomed, as his draft philosophy has been to target college speedsters and high school hitters. Hopefully, Moustakas and Hosmer pan out, but they probably will be arriving right around the time that Gordon and Butler are leaving the team.
As for Callaspo, I still have hope. Of course, he’s at the same age that you wrote off Huber, and he’s logged 3x as many at bats in the ML as Huber had at the same point in his career. Callaspo’s career minor league OPS is also 80 points lower.
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by marbotty on Jul 7, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trades
trades are important, because we’re small market. We probably only have one Guillen-sized contract left in the budget.
Yes, trades are always important, but it’s not like one can only say that Moore has done a good job of rebuilding the organization’s pitching if he’s done well with trades. He’s done a good job with the pitching overall, by trades, the draft and free agency.
If Moore never develops the ability to trade for hitting, we’re likely doomed
I understand that he’ll need to be able to do that effectively. If we’re evaluating how he’s done in that regard so far, we’re doing so with a very, very small sample of data so far.
As for Callaspo, I still have hope. Of course, he’s at the same age that you wrote off Huber, and he’s logged 3x as many at bats in the ML as Huber had at the same point in his career. Callaspo’s career minor league OPS is also 80 points lower.
Back to the Huber nonsense again. Ok, I’ll play. Should we be comparing a corner guy (LF/1B) to a middle IFer (SS/2B) as if comparing apples to apples? I know you understand the differences between a LF/1B and a SS/2B, so why are you comparing them thusly? If you compare their AAA numbers, Huber’s OPS is only 19 points higher (it looks like Justin peaked in AA). So Callaspo performed better in AAA for his position than Huber did. And Callaspo has more plate discipline, so his OBP isn’t as dependent on BA as Huber’s is. And Callaspo is a good defensive 2B whereas Huber is below average defensively at any position he plays. So yes, there’s a lot more reason to be hopeful about Callaspo than Huber. I wonder if Huber can get his AAA OPS over .800 this year.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agree, but
that doesn’t justify’s Moore’s apparent belief in TPJ/Gload/Gaithright. Glass drove us into the ground, but Moore actually believes that Gaithright makes the team better. That scares the hell out of me. RR is correct that all DM had to do was upgrade Angel Berroa and Minky, but somehow failed. Not good.
DM deserves a grace period of 4-5 years before we judge him, but based on his offensive moves I have little faith that he’ll build a good offense.
BTW, can’t DM be expected to improve the pitching AND the offense at the same time? I don’t want to hear any of this “he’s focusing on pitching now, but he’ll go after the offense soon.” Multi-task, Dayton.
by hippdoghipp on Jul 7, 2008 12:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He was hired...
To be a professional sports general manager, and to put a team on the field for today and the future. He has done some good things, but there are such glaring holes it is sad. I hate the 2-5 or 3-5 or whatever years grace period. Ya you give a grace period for on the field results, but no grace period should be given for ineptitude. You should know how to fill glaring holes as soon as you take the job.
I remember from a post the other day that 29% of our AB’s were going to jokes like Gload and Pena. How could that possibly happen…ever? Our payroll is not so tight that we couldn’t sign a SS and 1st baseman worth a damn. Why would you stick with Gload and Pena, is that 6 million over a couple of years or so we are saving THAT important?
It is funny how our “prospects” are middle of the road….at best. We used to lose all of our good players to other teams…Beltran, Ibanez, Damon, Dye…now we have little turnover because no one wants our players.
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
by tcon125 on Jul 7, 2008 8:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Prospects, etc.
It is funny how our "prospects" are middle of the road….at best.
I know you were on a rant, so I don’t know how much of that was serious and how much of it was just emotional vitriol, but I’ll respond to one clearly inaccurate point. Our prospects are not “middle of the road…at best.” Rosa, Cortes and Wood, for instance, are not “middle of the road” prospects. We have a lot of genuinely good pitching prospects and no genuinely good position player prospects.
We used to lose all of our good players to other teams…Beltran, Ibanez, Damon, Dye…now we have little turnover because no one wants our players.
Yeah, no one would want Greinke, DeJesus, Gordon or Butler. All of our players suck. This is the worst team ever. Moore is a joke of a GM, etc. It would be easier to take your points seriously if you didn’t throw in such silly, over the top hyperbole.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 7, 2008 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
no genuinely good position player prospects
only ‘cause Aviles is with the big team!!!11
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Jul 7, 2008 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I missed where I said any of that
I would occasionally read your posts if you believed anybody but yourself to have an opinion of value….
anyways….I was talking about our prospects that DID make the big leagues. I’m talking Mark T, Gordon, Butler, Hoch, do you think ANY of those guys are as good as Damon or Beltran. And all were high draft picks. Even when the royals have been bad we have still had a star prospect or player, but we just didn’t have the depth of quality throughout the team. No it seems we have DECENT quality throughout. Near average players (except 1st and SS which was what my disappointment in Moore was about!) fill our roster.
Our team doesn’t suck. We are a decent team. Moore is a decent GM. We have decent prospects. That is why we are consistently decent. I didn’t use the word suck one time.
Decent doesn’t win though.
And lastly asshole…your condescending “I am God” attitude is just annoying. It is like you just woke up from a deep sleep because you do not understand the dialect of a 21st century human. So I’ll spell it out for you….You are a douche bag. You are the guy who pretends to misunderstand what others are saying to spur an argument. The fact that you knew I was speaking in a hyperbole makes your point moot. You therefore understood and did not need to childishly criticize my posts. I am glad you have only entered my life on a random baseball blog level and that I do not have to deal with a pain in the ass like you every day.
At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....
by tcon125 on Jul 8, 2008 12:16 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Ok
anyways….I was talking about our prospects that DID make the big leagues.
So you’re talking about our young MLB players who are, by definition, not “prospects.”
I’m talking Mark T, Gordon, Butler, Hoch, do you think ANY of those guys are as good as Damon or Beltran.
What you said was that our “prospects” (meaning young players) are all “middle of the road…at best.” Do you really think that Gordon and Butler are only middle of the road and will always be? Given up on them becoming even above average already? You sure didn’t wait long. And what about Greinke and Soria. Do they not count? Are they “middle of the road…at best” as well?
And lastly asshole
I’m going to let that one go, but don’t let it happen again. I don’t mean don’t call me that again. I mean don’t be hurling names and insults like that around here. Joel has been banned twice for stuff like that. In 1 1/2 years here, the worst I’ve ever done is call one poster an “ass.” I frequently resist the urge to call people (other than Jose Guillen) assholes and similar names. If have to refrain from doing so, you must as well.
So I’ll spell it out for you….You are a douche bag.
Strike two. Don’t let there be a third.
You are the guy who pretends to misunderstand what others are saying to spur an argument.
No, I called you on what you wrote. I disagreed with it and stated my disagreement in a clear and non-insulting way. At most, I insulted your argument, not you personally.
The fact that you knew I was speaking in a hyperbole makes your point moot.
I didn’t know how much of it was serious and how much of it was emotional spewing. It turns out that you really are serious that none of our young major leaguers are any better than mediocre. Wow.
You therefore understood and did not need to childishly criticize my posts
Listen, on this blog we talk baseball. People make points and others often respond to them including either agreement or disagreement or both. Most people can handle being disagreed with. If you can’t, then an open discussion forum is not the place for you.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 8, 2008 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You realize that now
I’m going to have to call you a douchebag every time I agree with you, just to be a contrary ass.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on Jul 8, 2008 4:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"Prick" would be better
It’s the compliment du jour.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 8, 2008 5:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can you really blame him for calling you a douche bag?
Rude, maybe, but come on. You’re not exactly the least confrontational poster of all time – tone is everything.
winning records follow good bullpens
by slayor on Jul 8, 2008 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't blame him for wanting to call me a douche bag
But I do blame him for actually doing it, as well as calling me an asshole. But I didn’t ban or suspend him. But he needs to avoid doing this in the future. He can dislike anyone’s posts and/or tone, but he can’t react to that by throwing around those names and insults. This place could degrade pretty quickly if we started calling each other “asshole,” “cocksucker,” “motherfucker,” etc. every time we got upset.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 8, 2008 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you're an asshole, Royal.
I just think you’re kind of a son of a bitch.
by Gopherballs on Jul 8, 2008 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's fair
:)
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 8, 2008 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where is the Blog Rulebook?
Can someone direct me to it?
Who cares about RBI's, how many HDB's you got?
by kcscoliny on Jul 8, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
We don't have one
We have Will’s general guidelines and precedent.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Jul 8, 2008 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You both have decent points, but....
Tcon, several (not all or even most) of our young players, as of right now, are playing very mediocre, but that’s really limited to Gordon, Teahan, Buck… Very average stats and players, true.
But NY is right when he says that at the beginning stages of a career at an all-star break is a little too early to abandon ship.
Soria is ridiculous and one of the top 5 closers in baseball. And yes NY could be a very good 2 man…
Ramirez/Nunez is a solid setup and possibly the closer of the future.
Dejesus is starting to break out and, minus stolen bases, looking like Damon Jr. with muuuuuuuccchhhh better defense. Callaspo will be a solid second baseman and two hole hitter. Gordon, with a little seasoning and added plate discipline (or aggressiveness, depending on which at bat you see…) will be an above average ML 3rd baseman. Avilanche looks at least like a temp SS and a long term backup IFer who could play SS 2b or 3b with pop off the bench. (Butler is a question mark because I don’t think he has the head yet. He’s young but not sure if he’ll get that figured out…)There’s a lot too look forward to with this team.
And for the vets… Guillen is what we thought he would be. Can carry a team for a stretch but is streaky. Olivo is one of the best backup catchers in baseball. Mahay is third in team mvp voting.
And anyone who thinks Gload and Gator or German will be on this team in a starting or significant role spring of next year is a moron.
Dayton sees this. Not all your moves are gonna pan out and which ones would really make this club a contender right now anyway? Maybe with the central being down a bit but only half a season’s been played.
The only trade I wish would have been made that could have was Dotel and one other marginal prospect with upside (at the time, Lumsden, or Huber or Costa, or Musser or….) for either Balentien or Ben Francisco. I think throwing another piece would have sold it cause both teams were a bit desperate at the time.
Let’s not jump off the boat, let’s ride the waves a little while longer. At least util we see Moose, Cortes, Rosa and hopefully Monty, Hosmer, and our godsend of a fourth round pick.
And stop calling people assholes tcon (initials i hope), unless youre trying to be funny. Yes NYRoyal can be a sarcastic prick. But he’s a very intelligent and funny prick who loves this team. And he should prolly go work for baseballprospectus/reference.com and make some money with all that crazy info in his head.
Thank Gawd for homestands and allstar breaks.
by Royal2103 on Jul 8, 2008 1:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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