What does a reliever get you these days?
I've read talk on this and other boards about dealing Ron Mahay, fueled by reports by Ken Rosenthal and other rumor mongers that several clubs have interest in our lefty reliever.
However, this inevitably leads to wildly optimistic trade proposals by fans, positing that if we only packaged Mahay with a useless part like Esteban German or Jimmy Gobble, we could land a top prospect like Matt Gamel!
Well it doesn't quite work that way. But how does it work? Let's examine what solid middle relievers go for in July deadline trades. I tried to examine just trades in which a solid middle reliever was the focus of the deal. I did not include closers.
This is not meant to be an advocacy of dealing for Mahay. I rather like having him around. But if we are listening to offers, this is to give you an idea of what realistic offers are out there for a guy like Mahay.
via mlb.mlb.com
2007
San Diego deals Scott Linebrink to Milwaukee for P Joe Thatcher, P Will Inman and P Steve Garrison
Many observers thought Milwaukee had overpaid for the mediocre Linebrink. He was an impeding free agent, but the Brewers were desperate for bullpen help after the implosions of Matt Wise and Derrick Turnbow. John Sickels had Inman ranked as the Brewers third best prospect, a "B", and had Garrison listed as honorable mention before the 2007 season. Baseball America had Inman third as well. Thatcher was more of an organizational soldier. He's already made the big leagues as a LOOGY, although he has not pitched all that well. This is probably the best kind of deal we could hope for.
New York Yankees deal Scott Proctor to the Los Angeles Dodgers for IF Wilson Betimet
Proctor only had three years of service time when he was dealt, so that puts him in a different circumstance than Mahay. He was dealt for Betimet, a one top top prospect who had never really gotten much of a chance in Atlanta or LA. He had shown signs of good power, but always hit for low average, making the Dodgers reluctant to put him in the every day lineup. Getting a player that has shown signs of success in a reserve role, but hasn't gotten the chance to start might be a good gamble on the part of the Royals to bolster their offense.
2006
Kansas City trades Mike MacDougal to the Chicago White Sox for P Dan Cortes and P Tyler Lumsden
We're well acquainted with this deal, perhaps the pinnacle of Dayton's tenure thus far. MacDougal was electric, but inconsistent, but the White Sox were attracted to his "Proven Closer" and "All-Star" tags. Plus, they were desperate as well. Lumsden was actually considered the better prospect, ranking 16th on Sickels list for the White Sox in 2006, while Cortes was 18th. But Lumsden has stunk, while Cortes looks like one of the Royals best pitching prospects. Another coup like this would be huge for Dayton and the Royals.
2005
Oakland trades Chad Bradford to Boston for OF Jay Payton
Not even sure this should be in the discussion. Bradford hadn't pitched all year due to injury. Jay Payton was a one-time starter declining into benchville. A trade like this would be sorely disappointing, and unlikely.
San Diego trades Ron Villone to Florida for P Yorman Bazardo and P Mike Flannery
Villone is a decent comp for Mahay - both inconsistent in their careers, but strung together a few nice seasons in a row. Villone was more of a LOOGY than Mahay was, but not used exclusively as such. He had a 2.45 ERA at the time of the deal. Bazardo was the 9th best prospect in the Marlins organization, according to Sickels.
2004
San Francisco trades Felix Rodriguez to Philadelphia for OF Ricky Ledee and P Alfredo Simon
Should we just throw this one out because Brian Sabean's stupidity is such an outlier? Felix Rodriguez was a hard throwing middle reliever with quite a bit of value. Sabean dealt him for Ledee, a former busted prospect now serving as a fourth outfielder. Ledee would play 31 games with the Giants and hit .113. Simon was a decent pitching prospect in A ball, but didn't do anything at all after being dealt.
2003
Milwaukee trades Curt Leskanic to Kansas City for IF Alejandro Machado and P Wes Obermueller
Remember when we were buyers at the deadline? That was awesome. We acquired Curt "Let's Panic!" Leskanic at the deadline in 2003 for two guys that were really just organizational filler. Leskanic was actually awesome in 2003, both for the Brewers and the Royals, so this was quite a fleecing for Allard Baird (how many times do I get to write that?) It was in 2004 that Curt was awful.
San Diego trades Matt Herges to San Francisco for P Clay Hensley
Matt Herges in separate deals has been traded for Guillermo Mota, Chris Young and Clay Hensley. I don't know if a mediocre reliever has ever been dealt separately for more useful parts before. Herges had a 2.86 ERA for the Fathers when he was dealt upstate. Hensley was in his second pro season, but was moving fast through the system. He ended up putting together a nice 2006 season in the bigs, but hasn't found that consistency since.
2002
Cleveland trades Paul Shuey to the Los Angeles Dodgers for P Terry Mulholland, P Ricardo Rodriguez, and P Francisco Cruceta
I seem to recall Shuey being pretty hot property in 2002. He posted a 2.41 ERA for the Tribe and had a pretty solid track record of success. For some reason, the Indians agreed to take the 39 year old 7.61 ERA, rotting corpse of Terry Mulholland. They also got two electric arms in Ricardo Rodriguez and Francisco Cruceta. Rodriguez was the 69th best prospect in all of baseball according to Baseball America. Cruceta was in his first pro season, and was dominating low A ball.
San Diego trades Steve Reed (and Jason Middlebrooks) to the New York Mets for P Bobby Jones, P Josh Reynolds and OF Jason Bay
Reed was a submariner who posted a 1.98 ERA for the Padres. San Diego packaged him with Middlebrooks, a 27 year old organizational soldier and landed LOOGY Bobby Jones (the bad one) a 22 year old pitcher named Josh Reynolds, and AA outfielder named Jason Bay. Reynolds was putting together a very solid season in A ball, but hadn't done much prior to that and wasn't considered much of a prospect. Bay had put together a couple of decent, but not great seasons in the Mets lower minors and was not considered one of their top prospects. If Dayton can luck his way into finding another Jason Bay, I'm taking him to craps table.
2001
Baltimore trades Mike Trombley to the Los Angeles Dodgers for P Kris Foster and C Geronimo Gil
Trombley had been a solid reliever for years, and at the deadline he was dealt for 26 year old minor league reliever Kris Foster and power hitting minor league catcher Geronimo Gil. Foster seems like a throw-in - he was having a fine 2001, but was coming off injury and was not very young. Gil had shown some solid power, albeit in the Texas League, and was blocked by a future Hall of Famer. He never did much, which is why I say, never trade for a catching prospect.
2000
Houston trades Doug Henry to San Diego for P Scott Linebrink
Hey, there's Scott Linebrink again, this time as a youngster! The circle of life is complete. Linebrink was a 23 year old, posting awful ERAs in the minors, with good peripherals. Henry was a mediocre reliever, posting a 4.45 ERA for Houston before he went on to suck for the Royals the next year.
Pittsburgh trades Jason Christiansen to St. Louis for SS Jack Wilson
Christiansen had been a solid LOOGY for years in Pittsburgh, but was having his worst season with an ERA around 5.00. Still, Tony LaRussa has a lefty reliever fetish, and so the Cards acquired Christiansen for a smooth-fielding, high average, no power AA shortstop. Kinda weird that the Cards would deal a guy with so much grit.
So there you have it, that's the precedent that has been set for middle reliever. Can we get a Prince Fielder for Mahay and Olivo? Perhaps if Doug Melvin is off his meds, but I wouldn't count on it. But that's not to say we couldn't get a solid trade that can help our ballclub for years to come if the right deal comes around.
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Very nice write up
good facts there and hopefully it proves that we can’t really expect to get some amazing player for Mahay. I guess the only way we could was if we threw in a top prospect with Mahay (not a great idea IMO).
The other thing that Retro mentioned was the possibility of holding on to Mahay. That is a risk because who knows how much longer he can pitch this well. But it would be something that I would definitely be OK with.
by I need more Esteban on Jul 8, 2008 1:04 PM EDT reply actions
Great stuff
I like talking about potential trades and coming up with trade scenarios as much as anyone, but fans usually come up with trade ideas which would be great for their team and are completely unrealistic. Looking at some good comps gives us a good idea of what a player’s value might be on the open market.
For Mahay, I think his value would be more like Linebrink than Proctor. Mahay isn’t the typical veteran deadline trade for a rental. Mahay isn’t in the final year before free agency. He has an additional year on his contract. And I think he’s better than Proctor. But, of course, he’s older than both. But I think a Linebrink-like deal is rare. Just about everyone thinks the Brewers overspent on him. So I think Mahay could get the Royals a B prospect (not a top 5 prospect in some team’s system, but perhaps 6-10).
But I don’t think Mahay is going to be traded. I think the Royals signed him to a 2-year deal because they wanted him around for two years. I think he’s more likely to be traded 12 1/2 months from now.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I too think Mahay...
...will be here for a bit. We need him. While having an all-star closer is nice, because of the trend toward 7-inning starters, you need at least two very good “set-up”/hold men.
But, it looks to me--based on the deals outlined above—that pitching trades involving solid relief men usually yields very solid but younger relief men. It’s almost a one-for-one. – TL
Can we just say "ditto" for Grudz?
While a starting 2B should have more value than a left-handed reliever in the abstract, the reality is that while basically every playoff contender could use a lefty reliever who can pitch effectively to both righties and lefites, only a handful would be in the market for a semi-regular 2B (and some may have adequate internal options). In addition, 2B generally do not bring great returns in deadline deals. Last year (and it does not look like any starting 2B were traded in 2006 or 2005), Tadahito Iguchi returned a single-A relief RHP Michael Dubee, and Luis Castillo returned good glove/no hit AA C Drew Butera and single-A OF Dustin Martin. Neither deal brought as good a return as the 2007 relievers listed above. Grudz (v.2008) is a step up from 2007 Iguchi or Castillo, so his trade value should fall more in line with the relievers (and probably at the higher end or just above). But like Mahay, Grudz alone is not going to bring back a Top 5 prospect from a decent farm system.
Yes, two months of Grudz is not going to get the Royals a hell of a lot
Maybe a B prospect.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe...
I like the prospect’s value could go up or down based on if we’re willing to keep paying Grudz’s salary.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on Jul 8, 2008 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Chipping in the $1.5 million or so he is owed for August and September
might fetch a AA-ball “live arm” throw-in instead of an A-ball “live arm” throw-in.
Also...
Don’t forget Mahay also was traded himself already last year near the deadline, along with Mark Teixeira, from Texas to Atlanta. The guy’s probably tired of moving around and being in trade rumors, but such is his life as an effective left-handed veteran reliever.
Elmer Dessens
What about Dessens in 2006? I may be wrong but I thought he was also signed through 2007 so that would be real similar to Mahay. We got Perez, Blake Johnson, & Julio Pimentel in return.
That was a very good haul
But Neither Johnson nor Pimentel were highly ranked prospects. That was just the Royals FO doing a good job of identifying good pitching talent in the low minors of another organization. The Royals might be able to find similarly undervalued prospects in another organization that they could get for Mahay. And, FWIW, while they are both good pitching prospects, neither Johnson nor Pimentel have developed into top 5 prospects in the Royals system yet.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2008 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
That was a good deal
I’m not sure Dessens is all that similar to Mahay, and that was also kind of a weird deal that we probably shouldn’t expect.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
RE:That was a good deal
I meant similar in regards to both being signed for the next season. Mahay is obviously better this season than Dessens was in 2006.
by royallyspeaking on Jul 8, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Good post
Don’t know what everyone else sees but I would have to say we got the best deals out of those listed. That’s good news ! I’m torn about trading Mahay. He is older but it’s not like he has pitched his whole career so he might have more left than we think. If all they are gonna get is a couple iffy prospects I would probably stick with him and see if they can extend him thru ‘10, since they already have him thru ‘09.
Who cares about RBI's, how many HDB's you got?
Quick Question for you guys
What about a Mahay/Buck or Olivo trade to someone like the Marlins that need another catcher. Could they snatch a top quality prospect or current player for that?
Their current catcher stats look like this
.240/.309/.311 2 Hr 18 Rbi 7 2b
Who cares about RBI's, how many HDB's you got?
Is it worth it though?
I kind of feel like Catcher is one of those positions we are at least hitting the league average at. If we dump one of them and bring up Tupman, then what? We are back looking for Jason Larue next year…
The Combo of Buck/Olivo is good enough to win with, I say we try to keep both of them…
Tupman
wouldn’t be the #2 catcher. Brayan Pena would be, Tupman has been relegated to his backup. You would have to think with his aquisition that one of the two catchers would be traded. Pena is a serviceable #2 catcher.
Who cares about RBI's, how many HDB's you got?
IMO it'd be a colossally stupid move...
to trade Buck unless you’re just absolutely blown away.
Our pitchers perform measurably better when he’s catching…what it is, I dunno. He doesnt throw runners out, seems to have a decent number of past balls, but its not a small sample size so we’ll just go with it
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 8, 2008 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I rather doubt it
The intent of this post was to show that packaging together a reliever and a useful, but not impact player doesn’t net you a top prospects. I think Mahay + Olivo lands you a decent AA pitcher and maybe a former prospect who has yet to perform in the big leagues that Florida wants to get rid of.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
sounds good...sign me up....as long as buck isnt involved....
olivo’s at his peak in terms of value
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 8, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions
+1 to Retro and Billy
Olivo’s aberrational season should definitely be cashed in on. If packaging him with Mahay gets us a good prospect, go for it. If not, then trade Olivo by himself to whomever for whatever. He’s not going to be a Royal next year anyway.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Jul 8, 2008 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Package him with Gathright, Gload, and TPJ while they're at it
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 9, 2008 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I like this idea
trade about 20% of our big league roster. I would trade all of them for a good AA arm and one good A bat. Maybe we can trick some one into taking them all and think they got 4/5 big leaguer for 2/3 minor leaguers.
The Real Question is
how much could you net by adding Buck into that mix. If you could get a TRUE TOP NOTCH talent should you do it?
The diff between Dotel and Mahay is the extra control year so that team isn’t getting a one year rental. Is Buck one of the have to have building blocks or if we put a younger catcher in the mix could KC get a Top 5 Organizational Prospects from one of those NL East contending organizations (Fla/Phi/NYM) who might be in need of a C?
Who cares about RBI's, how many HDB's you got?
well...according to the stats we better get something damn good..
by including buck bc our pitchers give up more than a run per game more with buck than olivo
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 9, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
It would be interesting to see if that is just a anomole
Buck has a better CERA in ‘07 and ‘08 but Olivo’s CERA is better from 04-06. Is it the pitchers he is getting or is he truly better at calling a game? I do think he is better at calling the game but how much better is what I wonder.
Who cares about RBI's, how many HDB's you got?
that definitely seems like something that can be improved upon....
it also somewhat coincides with having a good pitching coach…one who’s been here for an extended period of time….cant hurt
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 9, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't forget the others in 2003
When Allard picked up Grahme Lloyd and Al Levine.
Levine was decent while Lloyd was terrible but the teams giving them up didn’t really get anything in return either.
baird made quite a few decent moves....
his major failing was the absolute destruction of depth in the minor league system which really wasnt his fault….he was forced to draft guys who would sign for $1000. Zack-good pick that was criticized. Billy-good pick that was heavily criticized. Gordo-really t he only move…lubanski-not good, but there have been far worse. The Beltran trade turned out far better than people give it credit for. We got an above average catch and an averageish 3b/OF or a super utility guy for 3 months of beltran.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 11, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
That
And also failing to get much value for Johnny Damon, Mike Sweeney, Jermaine Dye, Joe Randa, Paul Byrd, and Carlos Beltran.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
sweeney…not his fault…sweeney was a pussy. dye for neifi….terrible. he got a ROY and 2 years of a good closer for Damon. Berroa was highly valued throughout baseball…nobody knew he’d be good for a year and then just fall off of a cliff. Paul Byrd…was acquired by Baird for Jose Santiago…you probably should have left his name out…..and Joe Randa…what were you really going to get for Joe Randa…probably similar to the ‘haul’ for Grudz which wont be much….and I already addressed Beltran.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jul 12, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Baird
Signed Sweeney to a long-term deal when he instead should have tried to trade him for prospects as the A’s do with all their good players.
Dye for Neifi was awful, no one can refute that.
Damon should have been dealt for more than a ROY and two good years of a closer (Roberto was not that good for two years). We should have gotten three good young players. Instead, Allard foolishly thought we were a closer away from being good. He was dead wrong and it cost us.
Paul Byrd was acquired for Santiago. Good deal. But then we hung onto him too long. Instead of trading him for a solid young player (Orlando Hudson was supposedly offered) we let him walk away as a free agent (netting only Mitch Maier as compensation).
Joe Randa may not have netted much, but a couple of high upside low A ball pitchers would have been better than what we ended up getting – which is nothing.
The Beltran deal was pretty mediocre. Gotta get impact players for a superstar like that and we got two average to below average players.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 14, 2008 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
More on Baird
Failed to see the young brilliance of on Tony Pena Jr., who probably could have been had for even less than Eric Cordier
Could have traded J. P. Howell earlier in order to get a hold of Gathright sooner to exploit his enormous talent
Probably could have gotten Brayan Pena AND Kyle Davies for Carlos Beltran
and that’s not the end of the list
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 14, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

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