Denard Span > Alex Gordon
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Aug 11, 2008 2:44 AM EDT
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PrintSome random thoughts regarding our beloved Royals, as I sit here 34,000 feet above the Grand Canyon on my way to L.A. for work:
The Twins lovefest that was the Royals' radio broadcast made me absolutely nauseated today. I'm sure many of you heard it and it's probably been discussed on the game thread, but Bob and Frank were going on and on and on about the Twins' "system" and how wonderful it is. The problem with that is, several of the players aren't from the Twins' system. (Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Adam Everett, and that's just the hitters; let's see, fat ass Dennys Reyes didn't come up in the Twins organization, did he? Oh, that's right; he spent a couple of years with one of the worst teams in the major leagues-the Royals!) Is it possible that the Twins are good because they do a good job of identifying talent in ways that other teams don't?
As far as this magical "fundamental" approach that they have, what happened to it this weekend? Not only do they make numerous defensive miscues in today's game, but they left the bases loaded several times this weekend, got one runner picked off, and another thrown out at home on a busted contact play. I mean, if you play the game "the right way", you are always going to find a way to get runners in scoring position home, right? Gil Meche doesn't play the game as "right" as the Twins, so therefore they should repeatedly mash line drives over and over until they tire of it, right?
I've heard a time or two that pitchers need to throw strikes. It appears from listening to Bob, Frank, and Denny that Scott Baker knows this, too - but Gil Meche doesn't. I wish I'd have known this earlier, I would have continued my pitching career. You mean to tell me, if I throw this pitch over the plate, I'm a good pitcher?
A brief show of hands - who thinks that Denard Span is 40% (36.63% better, just to be statistically accurate) better as a hitter than Alex Gordon? I do, because OPS+ says so. I was at the game Friday night, and every time a Twins batter came up, I looked at the scoreboard, see the batters' OPS, and think to myself, "Man, that guy's got a better OPS than Alex Gordon. How is that? The guy's got 2 home runs and his OPS is better than Alex Gordon's." This phenomenon repeated itself several times throughout the night, or at least until my boys started acting like jackasses and I had to take them home.
So, I went to baseball reference and looked it up. Sure enough, our hero has an OPS+ of 101, while Denard Span's is 138. Better yet, by way of comparison, Nick Punto (NICK PUNTO, just let that sink in for a second) has an OPS of .721 and an OPS+ of 95. Does anyone on this site believe that Denard Span is almost 1 1/2 times the hitter that Alex Gordon is? I don't, and I've been rather critical of Gordon on this site. Does anyone believe that Nick Punto and Alex Gordon are roughly equivalent hitters?
The problem with using OPS (or worse, OPS+) as THE tool to evaluate hitters is that the component stats overlap, making it highly susceptible to players that have a high batting average (or a lucky BABIP). Hits are counted both in batting average and slugging percentage, meaning they're double-counted when using OPS. I'm sure I'm not covering any new ground here, but I think it's enlightening to point out in this case.
So, looking at Span's line, his batting average is .320 (the result of a .373 BABIP), an OBP of .405 that is largely BABIP driven, and a slugging percentage of .467. How is his slugging percentage so high? Well, if you hit a single every time you're up to bat, your OPS will be 2.000. An OPS of 1.000 is great, but a player can have just a slugging % that high by doing nothing but being an empty singles hitter.
My point with all this? Obviously, you can't identify and develop talent by seeing that they've got "the good face", or "grit" or they "play the game the right way", like our broadcast friends beat us over the head with today. Conversely, neither can one get out their slide rule and calculate the regression to the mean of the third-order Johnson Factor and predict what a team or player is going to do.
At some point, you've got to look at what's going on on the field, all the while analyzing the stats in order to make an evaluation.
What do my eyes tell me?
- The Twins play well most of the time, play very poorly on occasion (just like most teams) and beat us two out of three because they are a better, more talented team overall.
- Scott Baker throws a lot of strikes because he's a talented pitcher. Same thing with Francisco Liriano (or Zack Greinke, or Joakim Soria, for that matter). Usually, guys don't throw strikes because THEY'RE NOT THAT GOOD. They know that if they throw the ball over the plate, it's going to get tattooed. So, please spare me about some secret, magical formula that the Twins have figured out. It's simple - they have good, talented pitchers who also pitch to contact. You can do that when people consistently can't put good wood on your pitches.
- Alex Gordon is way, way, way better than Denard Span.
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The problem with using OPS (or worse, OPS+) as THE tool to evaluate hitters is that the component stats overlap, making it highly susceptible to players that have a high batting average (or a lucky BABIP). Hits are counted both in batting average and slugging percentage, meaning they’re double-counted when using OPS. I’m sure I’m not covering any new ground here, but I think it’s enlightening to point out in this case.
There is no single stat or metric which is THE tool for evaluating hitters. If you don’t want to use OBP and SLG, which tools would you suggest?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Not disagreeing with these metrics
but just pointing out that they should be viewed in context, and that one cannot simply throw out a players’ OPS and stop there.
If I had a suggestion, it might be to use OPS-hits, which might alleviate some of the double counting. This may already be out there, I don’t know.
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Aug 11, 2008 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Call me old fashioned, but I look at...
...BA, HR, Doubles, at-bats, and walks when evaluating offensive skills. Sometimes I also look at SBs. My point? No one stat tells you everything you need to know. You need a minimum of three to precisely triangulate a player’s offensive performance. – TL
ergo, white
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 11, 2008 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't know that...
...white folks are also “gritty.” That must be your devil fingers talking. – TL
It's an interesting...
...stereotype since Hank Aaron strikes me as the epitome of grittiness. I also think Derek Lee’s gritty, despite his fielding smoothness. – TL
They are both too talented
Gritty players are those that are unathletic (i.e. white) and “do more than their talent allows them.” White players who excel are gritty gamers. Black players who excel are “natural athletes.”
Just to be clear, those aren’t MY views, just the stereotypes a lot of announcers attribute.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 12, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Maybe I should've cited...
...Doug Glanville? Or maybe an underestimated black player like Hal McRae? – TL
Hal McRae was anything but underestimated.
He was routinely referred to as the best DH in the league in a time when his peers included Don Baylor and Jeff Burroughs, precisely because he wasn’t a big slow power hitter.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Not really.
Hal was just “aggressive.” He couldn’t have been “gritty” back then; for chrissakes, he didn’t even own a glove.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Glanville is way too smart and funny to be gritty
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 13, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah, another twist on gritty: ...
...dumb. Hmm…Gritty Grudz has never been described as a genius, but he’s also not be labeled an ignoramus. – TL
Of all the core stats for hitters
batting average is the one which is the LEAST repeatable from year to year; a guy who hits .330 with 20 homers is more likely to go .270/20 the next season than he is to go .330/anything. (That’s because of the vagaries of BABIP, of course.)
It also grossly over-rates guys like Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre who are able to slap .300, but still get on base 15% less often than even friggin’ Mark Teahen.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
i haven't been following the game threads
but I like the use of ‘friggin Mark Teahen’, is that new or just a one off by you?
also, +1 on the Royals broadcast absolutely getting giant stiffies over the Twins organization. Wish I had a nickel for every time Bob Davis, or even Denny (god bless him), said “making things happen, moving runners, putting pressure on the defense, etc.” What do these things mean? Denny went on and on about how Whitey Herzog changed baseball with his Cards teams. He’s right of course, but baseball has changed, and I fear our beloved announcer is stuck in 1985. He still calls a great game.
I once tried to string together the combination, "Hot Shot Hit Foul". It didn't quite come out that way. -- Denny Matthews
Span's only had 155 AB's lets check back at th 500 mark
1.000+ OPS vs lefties helps
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
absolutely true
but again, it requires a deeper analysis than just looking at one stat and declaring a player “good” or “bad, which a lot of people are wont to do.
I hereby resign from this post.
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Aug 11, 2008 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Then those people are stupid
and you really should just ignore what they say.
There are a bunch of more advanced metrics that are easily available—Fangraphs has Runs Created (a counting stat of how many runs that player’s bat has generated) and Runs Created per 27 outs (a rate state); The Hardball Times has their own version of Runs Created and Gross Production Average (GPA), another rate stat which weighs OPS to reflect the relative value of a point of OBP and SLG and scales it to Batting Average (i.e. .300 is good, .265 is average). First Inning has Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), which might be the best of the advanced rate stats and scales a player’s value to OBA (i.e., .350 is good, .330 is average). Baseball Prospectus has an entire alphabet of metrics too (EqA, VORP).
There is no one perfect offensive metric, as you will always have to consider production rate and playing time, but these are all much better than OPS. The best analysis may be to convert a player’s production into “runs” or “wins,” so you can compare hitting, pitching, and defense using the same measurement.
by Gopherballs on Aug 11, 2008 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
FWIW
Runs Created/game
Alex Gordon 5.3
Denard Span 6.9!!!!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 11, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Gordon and Span are both losers
Ramon Santiago 8.77 RC/27!
by Gopherballs on Aug 11, 2008 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I like how even though he's been on the DL for months
They still found a way to mention Matt Tolbert and his grit. Tolbert is the David Eckstein for the next generation.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
In span's defense
He has hit line drives at over a 25% clip. I don’t have a leader board, but that is likely very close to leading the majors. still need more AB’s to evaluate him obviously.
OPS does a great job
of describing how well a player has performed in a specific time frame. However, it doesn’t mean that one player is more talented than another, nor does it necessarily serve as a good predictor of future performance. As much as stat people (myself included) like to rely on numbers, I think there is a lot to be said for traditional scouting as well. For me, the more I get into statistical analysis, the more I feel like it needs to be balanced with the human eye’s evaluation of talent.
Overall, Span has been a better hitter this year than Gordon. But as kcscoliny said, Span has had very few at bats. I wouldn’t be surprised if we could find a 155 AB stretch for Gordon in which his OPS is just as high as Span’s. Stats generally do a poor job of describing potential because they are historical in nature.
For the record, Span was a first round draft choice for the Twins. He is probably a guy who is pretty talented himself. And unless I am mistaken, Span will be a free agent at the end of the year. I would love to see the Royals sign him, actually.
Exactly
It is a measurement of what has happened, not necessarily a predictor of what will happen. Prediction models are based on much, much more than OPS.
Why would Span be a FA this year? Didn’t he just get called up????
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 11, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I think I misunderstood
The Baseball Cube. It said he signed a one-year deal in January. I was thinking he must have been in the minors long enough to become a free agent, and the Twins signed him to a one-year deal for this year. I think I’m probably wrong though. I’m really bad at figuring out when players are eligible to leave and all of that sort of thing. He’s probably not going to be a free agent.
He signed a one-year deal, but is under club control for six more years
Most of the Royals are on one-year contracts too, but remain under club control until they incur six full years of major league service time.
by Gopherballs on Aug 11, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
The baseball cube threw me off because they don’t usually list those year to year deals under transactions. Since he was drafted in 2002, I thought maybe he was eligible for some sort of free agency before the year. I don’t understand how all of the minor league roster regulations work.
Basic Minor League Rules
Once a player signs, the milestones for most players are:
1. After 4 years in A ball ball or above (a/k/a full season ball), a minor leaguer must be added to a major league team’s 40-man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. (If the player is not picked in the Rule 5 draft, he stays with the same organization.)
2. After 6 years in full season ball (A ball or above), a minor leaguer can become a minor league free agent unless added to a major league team’s 40-man roster.
3. Once a minor leaguer is added to a team’s 40-man roster, the team generally can send him back down to the minors for three more seasons (using what is called an option). After the third season in which a team used an option to send a player to the minors, the team has to put him through waivers before it can send him down again.
There are certain exceptions or variations to these rules (like under no. 1, if a player is signed before age 19, the team does not have to put him on the 40-man roster for 5 years instead of 4), but these basic rules will apply in most circumstances.
by Gopherballs on Aug 11, 2008 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Thanks for the post
I vaguely knew these rules, but you really helped clear things up. My understanding from this is that a team can keep a player in short-season ball as long as they want. Is that accurate?
It would kind of make sense because a lot of Royals in the low minor leagues have spent multiple seasons in rookie ball despite playing fairly well.
Generally, yes
but the team has an incentive to move players forward when they are ready so as not to stall their development. Almost all of the players who repeat rookie or complex leagues are really young (as international players can sign as young as 16).
August
Span .333/.415/.528/.942
Gordon .323/.436/.516/.952
Whew! that was close! I’m so relieved.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 11, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Until there is a stat....
That can measure grit, the Twins success will always go down as “organizational greatness”.
Seriously though, a lot of it has to do with the expectations that are placed on the players/manager/trainers/scouts/et all from both the fan base and ownership.
It sickens me when i watch a Royals game on TV or even at a game, its the bottom of the 8th, down by 2 runs, runners on 2nd & 3rd, 2 outs, and there are 7 fans standing. The fans here are so scared to place expectations on players because this organization has conditioned us to HAVE NO EXPECTATIONS!
Our organization has always (the last 5-6 years) marketed on 2 things. The Past and the Future. It’s never been about the present. It’s bull shit. as much as I respect and honor the Royals of the past, I’m sick of the Larry Gura bobblehead nights.
I’ve made this rant before, and I’ll surely make it again, but Milwaulkee had a bobblehad night a few years ago. A DERRICK freaking TURNBOW bobblehead. Not a Paul Molitor, Robin Yount, Jim Gantner, Teddy Higuera, Cecil Cooper, Rob Deer, etc…an actual current player on the team that wasn’t a star, hell he was a decent reliever for a couple years at best.
Anyway, sorry I got off on a tangent there for a second. I still blame Joe Randa for the Twins success. In 1999 or 2000 (whatever year the unbalanced schedule made its debut I think), there were radio adds where Joe Randa said, “Think we don’t have a chance to compete this year? We do play the Twins 19 times!” Yea, ever since then the Twins have owned our shit and have been a playoff contender, we are still sucking eachother off about 2003, lamenting about the good ol’ days, and looking for “Two years from now we might contend”.
you mean you're not impressed by tony pena jr bobblehead night september 5?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Aug 11, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
In some ways
I’d rather have a TPj bobble than some retread Royals HOF’er, or a Ryan Lefebvre.
There were definitely more deserving/appropriate choices though (DDJ, ZG, Mex….)
and how in the hell have we had a statue/bobblehead of nearly everyone who's ever played...
for the royals, but we’ve never had a bo jackson tshirt, bobblehead or statue?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Aug 11, 2008 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
bat broken over knee...
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Aug 11, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Derrick Turnbow bobblehead night
Is about as bad as Tony Pena Jr. bobblehead night. Seriously, that dude is awful.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
he was good at one point
tony pena jr at no point was a good player on an organized baseball team
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Aug 11, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Brewers Bobbleheads
Last year the Brewers were celebrating the 25 year anniversary of the 1982 AL champs and had bobblehead days for Molitor, Yount, Gantner, Cooper, Sutton, among others.
They even had bobbleheads for the Hot Dog Racers. I currently have a Hot Dog bobblehead on my desk.
You Are Truly
Blessed.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 12, 2008 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Or maybe that .320 average points to the limitations of that stat as an evaluative tool
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 11, 2008 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
We need to draft more baseball players
And fewer hockey players!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
And Darin Erstad!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 11, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Curlers Rule!
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 12, 2008 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions
White Sox
White Sox fans get displeased at Hawk and DJ when they play the Twins because all they talk about (and Ozzie Guillen) is how much the Twins rock at doing the little things. The Twins have been a terrible defensive team this year (errors are up. Mental miscues like throwing to the wrong base or not covering a base seem to happen about 3 times a week), yet they do not get called out on it.
by DedicatedFollowerOfFashion on Aug 11, 2008 5:34 PM EDT reply actions
Broadcasters love two things:
1. Conventional wisdom. And the conventional wisdom is that “doing things the right way” is the good way to build a winner. Doing it by buying the best talent just doesn’t feel right.
2. The established narrative. Back from the days of Tom Kelly, the narrative was established that the Twins “do things the right way.” That narrative was set in stone and continued with Kelly was replaced by his right hand man, Gardenhire. Now that the narrative has been established, no set of facts to the contrary will shake broadcasters from their easy recitation of it.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 11, 2008 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't really argue with their results
2 world championships and numerous playoff teams since ‘87. Tough go of it during the 90’s but they unlike KC pulled out of it.
I know how everyone in here hates Steve Phillips but he made a good point about baseball and the Twins success this year. Just do one thing exceptionally well and you have a chance to win. Whether that is hitting Home Runs(Marlins) hitting with runners in scoring position(Twins), not walking hitters(Twins) or starting pitching(Angels) if you do something exceptional the rest will take care of itself. Every team in the league is trying to be good at everything and in the meantime are sliding at those same things. Now I know the Twins success at RISP is fluky but it is the reason they are sitting in the standings where they are.
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
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