Rany on Kila

Really good piece on Kila from Rany. Offers some reasons to be pessimistic and optimistic about our "Hawaiian Punch".

Good to see that a few scouts are liking him too. Carlos Pena? I'd take that.

about 1 year ago I need more Esteban 46 comments 1 recs |

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Interesteing stuff by Kevin Goldstein

I asked my colleague and minor-league expert Kevin Goldstein to give me 25 words about Kaaihue. Understand that Goldstein is not one to mince words or hedge his bets with prospects; if he (or the scouts he talks to every day) thinks that someone’s no good, he’ll say so. For instance, if you’re a Royals fan you probably don’t want to hear what he has to say about Joe Dickerson.

So I was expecting to hear the typical pessimism about Kaaihue that I’ve heard about almost every hitter in the farm system other than Mike Moustakas. I was pleasantly surprised. "Two words: Scouts Believe." He gave me a few more. "His approach, power, and hitting skills project as an everyday MLB first baseman. A scout I talked to put a 50 on him."

Wow, wonder what he thinks of Dickerson!?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 13, 2008 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fourth outfielder

Said it in a chat a while back.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 13, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are some interesting cautionary tales in that Rany article

I want to believe that every Royals prospect who performs well in the minors is going to perform well in the majors, but unfortunately it often doesn’t work out that way. I hope Kila is something special, but I’m going to temper my expectations.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't think they're really cautionary tales

They all seem to be guys who mashed in the minors, then never got a fair shot in the big leagues (except Rhodes). I think Rany is warning us against not giving this kid a fair shot. This commenter I think has it right:

The Royals, under the Herk Robinson/Allard Baird administration, were great at finding reasons why what they saw was NOT reality.

It seems like teams have it in their heads that guys like this are just flukes, and look for any excuse to close the door on them.

They have a healthy skepticism, as they should. They just don’t have an unhealthy skepticism. It’s true that none of the guys above, with the possible exception of Phelps, ever gave the Royals any long-term regrets for letting them go. At the same time, it’s not like they should be patting themselves on the back for cutting bait on these guys.

We should be looking for guys that can help the ballclub. And we shouldn’t close the door on a guy producing simply because he doesn’t fit our profile of what a prospect should be. We’re not in a position to poo-poo a guy with 30 bombs in the minors.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 13, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

I think Rany is warning us against not giving this kid a fair shot.

I think he’s doing that and sharing cautionary tales. That’s why he said, “With three weeks left in the season, Kaaihue is on pace to have one of the most prodigious, if not the most prodigious, season of any Royals minor league player. As you can see, that’s hardly a guarantee for success.” He’s pointing out that many times players hit well in the minors and come up and don’t hit well in the majors. You are right that he also pointed out later that this shouldn’t keep the Royals from giving such a player a shot.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's fair

Let’s give this kid a fair shot, but let’s not count on him to be the next big thing. I think that’s appropriate.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 13, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And that begs the next question

What constitutes a “fair shot”? And by “fair shot,” do we mean continuing to do what is best for his development? I agree with giving him a September call up. I also agree with Moore that it is better to call him up two months too late than two months too early. The downside of the former is that the Royals miss out on his production for two months in a likely rebuilding year. The downside of the latter is that you hamper the development of a potentially good player. I prefer waiting and its downside to rushing and its downside. So, as I’ve said before, I’d call him up in September, but only to give him a little taste of the majors. I wouldn’t give him regular, or probably even semi-regular playing time. The September call up would be pre-preparation for 2009. Next year, I’d give him a long look in ST. If the organization is really confident at the end of ST that he’s ready to be a MLB starter, then go for it. But I doubt he’s quite ready for that and I doubt they’d think he is either. So, I’d start him in Omaha again (and definitely would not send him to KC to sit on the bench and maybe play once or twice a week). If he hits well again in Omaha for a month or two, then call him up for regular playing time and give him his real shot then.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds right to me

It will be interesting to see what they do with Gload and Shealy this winter.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 13, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shealy and Gload

...probably won’t go anywhere this offseason. But the Royals will probably acquire some 1B/DH help. Of course if the Royals bring in a legitimate 1B, that leaves no room for Kila. If they do acquire a real 1B or DH and then Kila continues to destroy PCL pitching in April and May of 2009, then what do you do? Call him up to sit on the bench and maybe play once or twice a week? It’s a good problem to have, but if we do go get someone to fill that hole, it means there’s less opportunity to give Kila his shot.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Teach him to play shortstop.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 13, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I hope KC has the forsight to realize that Butler is a legitimate option at 1b and they don't need to bring someone

else in. His defense has been totally fine not spectacular but I think he will actually improve also it probably could help him get in shape having to play a position everyday. If Kila works out at 1b or DH great but Butler deserves to be the 1b of the future if he can hit like he shows he has the ability to.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 13, 2008 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Butler at 1B is not the issue

The issue is that there is a hole in the lineup at 1B or DH (whichever one Butler is not playing). So the Royals need to acquire a 1B/DH. That acquisition would, however, block Kila.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think that will happen

I just can’t see Moore bringing in a free agent to play first base with Gload, Butler, Shealy, and Kaaihue already in the mix. It goes without saying that Gload sucks, Butler hasn’t yet met his high expectations, Shealy has been disappointing, and Kila is a complete wild card. Despite those facts, I still don’t see Moore paying to bring in a high dollar first baseman.

I think it’s a lot more likely we will see him go after an outfielder or starting pitcher.

by KCBear on Aug 13, 2008 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting take

although I would say the players listed while stat wise don’t compare much to Kila. Size doesn’t always mean power but it helps and Phelps, Giambi, Hosey and Rhodes don’t really compare sizewise. Also interesting the scout said his bat was slow I thought Jirschele who also coach Pickering in his monster season said “I noticed you could get Pickering out with a good fastball, and I don’t see that with this guy. When I see him get a high fastball, he gets to it.” I assumed that meant he has above average bat speed, maybe not. In all a good comparison to Pena and something to work with for KC hopefully they don’t ship him in favor of the Gloadinator.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 13, 2008 12:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I meant to say statwise they compare but not sizewise.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 13, 2008 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bat speed

Clearly Jirschele disagrees with that scout with regard to Kila’s bat speed. Based on Kevin Goldstein’s comments, it appears that many other scouts disagree with that scout as well.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its funny that scouts could disagree on something like that.

How do two guys watch something like bat speed and come up with differing opinions. Especially when you are talking about swinging at a fastball, either you have it or you don’t. I think scout bias hurts evaluations sometime, don’t attack me I said sometime if these guys weren’t tied to the players they stood up for in scouting so much maybe they could give slightly more honest evaluations.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 13, 2008 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because subjective judgements on bat speed are not easy to make

I think it is a lot harder to accurately judge bat speed than you think. Some pitchers can make guys look like they have poor bat speed. And scouts often don’t get many looks at a player, so if he’s having some bad days or facing some really good pitchers, that will affect their evaluation. That’s why I think it is important to get the opinions from multiple scouts, which is what BA and BP do, as well as using their own analysts. And yes, I’m sure some scouts have their own biases which affect their evaluations.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Seems like it would be much easier to have multiple scouting combines similar to football.

Built in machines with swing evaluators (like golf). I’m sure they already do this sort of thing. I would trust a computer evaluation over someone eyeballing it. With the advances in batting machines (Pro Batter) it seems like it could be far more scientific than baseball is making it more similar to what they are doing in football.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 13, 2008 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

They should use a Wii

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 13, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ya and a dance dance revolution machine for agility.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 13, 2008 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Priceless

I would pay to get a picture from next spring training with G-Load, Butler, and the Kila Monster all playing DDR together to determine the starting 1b spot, with DMGM looking on intently, and JoPo at his side scribbling madly with each of Dayton’s changes in body language and facial expression.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 13, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I love it. Someone else agrees with my Carlos Pena comp. Like Pena, he’s probably going to have his bad moments vs. certain LHP, but he shares the same good eye and light-tower power.

by RATW on Aug 13, 2008 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

My main concern now...

Is how well he will hit against quality lefties.

Hopefully they give him a chance to hit against them before deciding he can’t, though.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 13, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, on both points.

by RATW on Aug 13, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Callis likes the G-Man

Too early. But if I have to guess, he can really hit, so I’ll say solid major leaguer.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 13, 2008 4:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

G-man?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Italian Stallion

Giovatella.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 13, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

G-Man= Little Guido? (Little Johnny GIvotella?)

Link (I don’t subscribe to BA)?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 13, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kevin Goldstein at BP said something about Gio in his BP chat today

BL (Bozeman, MT): Kevin, there’s been plenty of talk about Mike Moustakas lately, but are you intrigued by either of his teammates at Burlington, Johnny Giovatella or Jason Taylor?
Kevin Goldstein: Taylor does pretty much nothing for me. 20 years old, kind of a dumpy body, and a lot of lunging at the plate. Obviously, Giavotella doesn’t have a ton of tools, but you really only need one game to fall in love the way he plays.

Grit!

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's got a high GRIT+

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 13, 2008 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His GRIT MLE's are really high

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

WTF?

Good stuff, but seriously, what the hell are we supposed to do when the prospect dude from the nerds-who-hate-the-game publication of all time, BASEBALL F@%#ING PROSPECTUS, says stuff like “you only need one game to fall in love the way he plays.” Is he being intentionally ironic?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 13, 2008 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What Nickname did we decide on I keep forgetting

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 13, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think we ever decided

Maybe we should do a poll for him now, since no one (including me) has any ideas for anyone else on the MLB team.

So far:

Johnny G-Man
Italian Stallion
LIttle Guido

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 13, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We should wait until he's close to the show.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 13, 2008 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

We should at least wait until he's a top 10 prospect

Nicknames must be earned.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I think they should be earned at the MLB level.

by KCBear on Aug 13, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't underestimate

His dreamy eyes. You can get lost in them.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 13, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kevin Goldstein is the least BP-like of all of the BP guys

He’s the least sabermetrically and statistically inclined. That being said, I don’t think he actually values Gio’s grit. He just recognizes that he’s one of those hard playing guys that fans always like.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 13, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just goin by the radio guys

but he has awesome range on defense.

It’s nice to get some love in the organization other than just the First Round picks. For Kila, G-Man, Duffy to be a topics of conversation seems like KC is on the right track to rebuilding.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 13, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Mmmm

Whereas most people, when they say something like that, mean “he’s scrappy and plays hard and he’s fun to watch,” with KG it’s more readable as “he plays smart.”

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Aug 14, 2008 6:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs