(credit to Retro for the research) So I think the odds are long against him not signing. Players just very, very rarely turn down that much money.

Most of the top 10 picks still haven’t signed and probably won’t until the 15th. Given the Royals draft spending and their relationship with and knowledge of the tactics of Boras, I think there is little reason to believe he won’t sign. And maybe Melville too if the rumors and reports are correct. Should be a fun deadline day.

so that is a good sign. The rumors of Melville already agreeing have kind of died down.

Petro just went thru the list of players GMDM have drafted in his time from the Braves-Royals. Interesting he drafted JP Howell with the Braves couldn’t sign him and then his first move he trades him when he got to KC.

In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they have already signed.

Clock ticks on Draft signing deadline

Hosmer has a scholarship offer from Arizona State on the table—a nice option should he not sign. And with Boras in his corner, you know it will go down to the last minute, much like with Alvarez. But the Royals have a history with Boras in similar situations. He negotiated a $5.3 million deal for Luke Hochevar, the top pick in the 2006 Draft, and got Mike Moustakas, last year’s third overall selection, a $4 million contract.

One source was “optimistic” that a deal would get done. Hosmer played in an amateur tournament that concluded last weekend, and it appeared that negotiations weren’t about to get serious until he was through. Don’t be surprised if Hosmer signs a deal in the neighborhood of the one Moustakas signed.

Melville’s HS coach said he thought it would definately get done when I spoke to him two months ago. He said he’d heard the rumor of a deal being done last month but didn’t elaborate.

I’m sure Hosmer will sign. You don’t go #3 and not sign and go to college for 3 years. You’ll come out and not get what you would have… Some hotshot HS kid will go in front of you then. (a good example of Hosmer going #3 this year and Beckham going #1)

News ony of the other picks we’ve made? #7? #11?

Is there anyone else that we really have a shot to sign or are trying?

That its an open secret that Melville will sign with the Royals.

Also said he’s not a fan of Kila! Kila will smite him!

Has supposedly signed with the White Sox, according to Chicago a radio station.

Article in the St. Louis Post Dispatch today about Melville.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/DC5416AFD466AB1E862574A500119BAA?OpenDocument
(sorry, don’t know how to make a mid-post link)

Here’s the main gist, in one quote from Tim Melville:

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Holt’s Melville hopes to sign deal with Kansas City soon
Holt pitcher Tim Melville (
SPRINGFIELD, MO – Holt pitcher Tim Melville (9)
(Dianna Russell)
By Joe Lyons
ST. LOUIS POST-DISPATCH
08/14/2008

Much as he has done all summer, Tim Melville waits.

Selected by the Kansas City Royals in the fourth round of the baseball draft in June, Melville, a hard-throwing righthander from Holt High in Wentzville, had his patience tested as negotiations progressed slowly this summer.

But with the signing deadline set for 11 p.m. Friday, Melville is confident his professional baseball career will begin shortly.

“I’m ready to start playing again,’’ the 18-year-old said. “It’s been a little frustrating, but it’s a complicated process. The last thing I heard from my adviser was that the contract had been sent to the commissioner’s office. Once it’s approved, they’ll return it to me to sign and then I guess I’ll find out where the Royals want me to report.’‘

Apparently, it has already been sent off to Selig’s office…then needs to be signed. It’s all but a done deal.

Article in the St. Louis Post Dispatch today about Melville.

“I’m ready to start playing again,’’ the 18-year-old said. “It’s been a little frustrating, but it’s a complicated process. The last thing I heard from my adviser was that the contract had been sent to the commissioner’s office. Once it’s approved, they’ll return it to me to sign and then I guess I’ll find out where the Royals want me to report.’‘

Apparently, it has already been sent off to Selig’s office…then needs to be signed. It’s all but a done deal.

Giants are supposedly about to sign C Buster Posey for $7.5 mill AND a MLB contract.

Never underestimate the negotiation powers of Brian Sabean.

This morning on 810 AM, there is a growing fear among GM’s that the devil, I mean Scott Boras may be making a stand this season. There is apparently growing sentiment that he is leveraging the future of his 3 (or more, Olney said he might represent more than 3, but he KNEW of 3) 1st round picks, by holding out for considerable more $$ than baseballs “Slot”.

Remember, last season MoosTacos wouldn’t have signed if his parents hadn’t stepped in & all but FORCED Boras to take the deal @ the 11th hour…

I agree with Olney on the subject. If you are a HS player/parent of a HS player, that is being offered upwards of $4 mil. If you even THINK about not taking it, you are a complete idiot.

Personally, I kind of hope Hosmer doesn’t sign. I’d take my chances w/ 2 top picks next year, as I wan’t impressed with any of the scouting videos (not #3 overall impressed alt least)

Some of you really want Hosmer to NOT sign? Bajeezuz. He’s a legit top five talent THIS YEAR. With that #4 pick next year, we would HAVE to take someone who would be willing to sign for slot, probably means reaching on someone, because we would get no compensation for that pick if we failed to sign him AGAIN.

As for talent? David Rawnsley said the three best HS hitters he’s seen in the last 20 years — Alex Rodriguez, Josh Hamilton, and…wait for it….Eric Hosmer. Rawnsley is not the god of evaluating prospects, but I really respect his opinion and saying that is really good enough for me.

2. Pirates: Pedro Alvarez – Lots of posturing, but also lots of talks going on behind the scenes. This should still get done.

3. Royals: Eric Hosmer – Ditto Alvarez.

Eric Hosmer is choosing between many millions and college, who here can’t relate?

Hosmer’s bonus might be closer to double baseball’s recommendation, something approaching or even passing $6 million. Still, like with Moustakas, Hosmer will most likely have to sign a deal with the Royals against Boras’ advice.

The vibes I continue to get from both sides are that something will probably be done, but that nobody would be surprised if it didn’t.

Boras always works hard to make it look like his draftees are willing to not sign. With college players, the threat is legitimate because the downside for them not signing isn’t huge. They only have to wait out a year and Hochevar and others have proved that you can not sign, wait out a year and get bigger money the next year. But how often do Boras clients who are HS draftees choose not to sign? I’m sure some (although still a pretty small minority) who get offered less than $1M end up not signing and then go to college. But how many HS draftees advised by Boras who are offered more than $1M end up not signing? There may well have been one, but I can’t think of one. The reason is if a HS player is offered something like $4M, the risk-benefit analysis of turning it down and going to college just doesn’t work. There’s too much risk that the player could fail, or get seriously injured in college, or that his stock could just drop and that he’d never get offered that much money again. Compare that risk to having $4M in your pocket right now and the choice is pretty clear.

Even going by the track record of Boras-advised HS draftees, you have to expect that this deal is going to get done.

now all we have to wait on is Hosmer. I guess we’ll know tomorrow its kind of like Christmas we’ll all wake up and see whats under the tree a bright shiny present or a lump of coal courtesy of David Glass.

31 925 Ryan Curl OF St. Francis DeSales HS, Columbus, Ohio

What’s the scuttle on #50 Travis Jones?

Also, isn’t it reasonable we might sign another one or two of our latter picks right before the deadline? My thinking is that several are planning to go to college but that we’ll throw a little more money at them and change their mind.

With about eight hours to go it looks like KU might get some very good news late tonight. Zac Elgie has not signed with Oakland and I am really starting to abandon myself to hope here. Elgie committed to KU last year but he was projected as a high round draft choice. He sent out a letter earlier this summer saying he would only sign for early round round money, otherwise he was going to KU. Oakland took him in the 12th round and he hasn’t signed yet.

Lee Ridenhour, a Missouri high school pitcher, was taken in the 31st round by the Twins. He looks like he will be coming to KU as well. This could be a very good night for the Hawks.

$3.2M bonus he is the 4th pick in the draft so it gives the Royals a base to start from. I still think the Royals land Hosmer for the $4M range that Moustakas got last year maybe a slight upgrade but not much. 1 year later but 1 pick later should earn him about the same money.

reported that hosmer signed, but no additional details. pedro alvarez signed as well.