Another Wasted Year
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 7:44 AM EDT
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PrintThe Royals had a chance to learn either attempt to be competitive late into the season in a year the the AL Central was in flux or learn more about the organization.
Instead we got neither.
Instead of taking advantage of the opportunity to compete or the goodwill of fans who are willing to be patient we got another year of sideways motion. Going into the season we had hoped that we'd see enough development to say that 2009 would be the year the Royals emerged from their 15 year long funk.
That schedule has been pushed back to 2010. And what have we learned?
Not much.
Well, we learned that The Tony Pena Jr. Experience was every bit as bad as the stats people warned us it could be.
We learned the same about Brian Bannister.
And we discovered that a pudgy kid from New York can play some baseball. If a 27 year old can be called a kid.
Is it fair to say that Mike Aviles saved the season for the Royals?
I'll say this: he managed to keep me sucked in 2 months longer than I would have been otherwise, because I'm weary from watching Jose Guillen drag his broken body out to play and I'm weary from watching Ross Gload [he of the horrible secondary stats] earning bonus money and I'm weary of watching the Royals complete the destruction of Mark Teahen's career.
And mostly I'm weary from yet another opportunity lost and another wasted summer.
I'll watch the September call-ups with mild interest. Maybe Kila Ka'aihue can show something . . . maybe he'll spend the month on the bench "learning".
At least it won't be a wasted year for him.
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What happened this year is frustrating,
for all the reasons you listed.
But isn’t there reason to hope too?
Point?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 10:12 AM EDT reply actions
Yea NY!
I knew I could flush you out of hiding!
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Hiding?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Shouldn't have written this when I was angry
But anger brings out passion.
Here are some steps that should have been taken. All of these moves could have occurred in early summer
:
1) Given up on TPJ as a regular
2) Put Guillen on the DL when it was obvious that his legs were dragging his performance down
3) As an adjunct to 2, make one of the corner OF spots an open extended tryout for Costa and Maier. At worst the organization will demonstrate that they are nothing but organizational players.
4) End the Ross Gload experiment and give Butler an extended look at 1B
5) Give people fixed spots in the lineup and let them figure out how to hit in those spots instead of jerking them around and making sure they NEVER get comfortable
6) Put Callaspo out there and see if he’s capable of being an every day contributor [before the DIU obviously]
Now I put part of the onus on the local media. If I had a chance to interview Dayton Moore the first question I would ask would have absolutely nothing to do with any of the issues I have identified.
The first question out of my mouth would be, “The offense doesn’t seem much better than what we’ve had in the past. What’s happening behind the scenes to give you reason for optimism?”
Are there reasons for hope?
Sure there are.
I have a great deal of faith in GMDM and what he’s doing long-term. He has a vision for the franchise that will ensure consistently good performance in the long-term. He needs to communicate that vision better to the fans. Remember, we are about the best-informed fans the Royals have but even we’re struggling to find the positives.
The back end of the bullpen is outstanding.
The rotation is 2 deep [those 2 can be dominant at times] and Hochevar is showing signs of developing into a solid number 3 starter. If you think that Davies and Bannister aren’t part of the future I feel pretty good about the team’s ability to replace them in the offseason with a combination of arms in the system or a free agent.
Getting pitching is the hard part and the Royals are practically there.
The reason this year has been more aggravating for me than the recent past is exactly that fact: with a decent rotation and an excellent bullpen the Royals could have been in the race far longer than they were.
But the month of May ended that. I could have lived with May being a lost month that tanked the season if there were clear signs of either developing offensive players or an effort to define what this team has organizationally.
Instead, there is a sense that the organization stayed the course, trying in their own way to win as many games as possible with their proven commodities. And let’s face it- they lucked into Aviles. If he had pulled an 0-fer in his return game at Yankee Stadium I would expect that he’d be Omaha right now instead of being a possible RoY candidate.
The organization would ask us to be patient.
I say it’s not easy to be patient when you aren’t playing young players AND you’re losing.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
1. They did that.
2. Guillen was hurt this much even through his hot streak. His injury is decreasing his range in the field, but I don’t think it is affecting his hitting.
3. That open tryout wouldn’t have made the team any better and would have had a very limited benefit for the future as they are both very low upside guys.
4. Agreed
5. Having “fixed spots in the lineup” is meaningless. You don’t get comfortable at the plate because of where you are hitting in the lineup or how often you hit there.
6. I probably would have played Callaspo more, but I don’t think I would have just benched Grudz who hit pretty well for yet another season.
Overall these moves wouldn’t have made much of a difference at all.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
1. It took them longer to make that move than it should have.
2. If you believe that Guillen’s hitting wasn’t impacted much by the injury then are you saying that this is the player we signed- a guy who’s going to give you two good moths a year? I think [and can’t prove] that he aggravating something during the streak and it’s not getting better.
3. Are you sure? Playing a healthy Shane Costa doesn’t help you understand his skillset better AND provide an offensive boost over a Jose Guillen who has posted an OPS of .597 after the Break AND let Guillen get healthy?
5. I disagree. Fixed spots for younger players helps them to understand how Major League pitchers are approaching them in certain situations. Maybe this doesn’t do much for Billy Butler [see ball, hit ball] but Teahen and Gordon both have had long stretches where they’ve looked totally lost. Why do they look lost? I don’t think it unfair to argue that it’s due in part to the fact that they keep taking ABs in different slots with different people hitting around them.
6. Agreed. Grudz and Callaspo ended up forcing the issue but splitting playing time is what I did a poor job of implying.
It’s not that these moves would make an immediate smash impact.
You asked what my point was: here you go: there’s an issue of opportunity cost: none of really know what was lost by letting the season play out the way it did.
We make a lot of assumptions about players- “Costa is this, Maier is that, Shealy is a AAAA player.”
Maybe those assumptions are true.
But most of us made the same assumptions about Mike Aviles. “He;s 27. He’s fat. He’s a career minor leaguer with a slow bat.”
Are the Royals a better team with him in the lineup? Or would you say “he hasn’t made much of a difference at all.”
We didn’t know until he got a shot. We can sit here with spreadsheets and scouting reports and pretend to know but we don’t.
But we had an opportunity to find out for sure and it got away. And the Royals let an opportunity to play meaningful baseball deeper into the season get away along with it.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
1. Two months of him starting wasn’t exactly a season killer.
2. I think he’s having a down year.
3. What more do I need to know about Shane Costa’s skill set? Are you familiar with his MLB career .655 OPS in 449 PA’s? And do you think that’s an “offensive boost” over Jose Guillen this year?
5. There’s no evidence to support this. None. Regardless of your spot in the lineup, every PA is different. Sometimes you’re leading off an inning. Sometimes you’re coming up with the bases loaded.
Why do they look lost? I don’t think it unfair to argue that it’s due in part to the fact that they keep taking ABs in different slots with different people hitting around them.
Not only do I think it is unfair, I also think it is totally ridiculous. There’s no reason to believe that hitting in different spots in the lineup with different people around you make you less comfortable at the plate. I occasionally hear that bit of odd sports psychology from the fanocracy, but there is nothing to support it. Not only is there no data or study to support it; it isn’t even logical.
You asked what my point was: here you go: there’s an issue of opportunity cost: none of really know what was lost by letting the season play out the way it did.
Yeah, for all we know, the season could have theoretically been much worse if it played out your way.
But most of us made the same assumptions about Mike Aviles. "He;s 27. He’s fat. He’s a career minor leaguer with a slow bat."
I knew that one was coming. So because Aviles has played well, we should give a shot to a bunch of mediocre non-prospects in AAA? I’m not buying it. Let’s just give a shot to the non-prospects with an OPS over .950. How about that? We can’t let the exceptions define the rule.
But we had an opportunity to find out for sure and it got away. And the Royals let an opportunity to play meaningful baseball deeper into the season get away along with it.
That opportunity that we let get away was not playing Costa or Maier more? Thanks for the laugh.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll chime in briefly
ON the Batting order thing.
The only way if helps you feel more comfortable is the fact that when you look up and see player X hitting you know exactly how many batters are ahead of you with a consistent lineup.
I played for both styles as a player, and there is a certain “comfort” level that is there. Again, in MLB you are more focused than college players are, so it isn’t a huge deal, but there is a slight difference.
If Alex Gordon can come in from the field, look up, see that player X is on deck and be 100% certain where he is in relation to that player, there is a greater comfort level than seeing player X in the on deck, and having to remember where he is that night…
An addendum
It does NOT make you more/less comfortable when you are in the box. It makes you slightly more focused in when you are mentally preparing for your next AB
There's more to it than that.
If you have a consistent lineup, Player “4” is more familiar with what players “1”, “2”, and “3” are likely to do while on-base than he is with players “5”, “6”, and “7” (none of whom will EVER be on base when player “4” is at the plate in a consistent lineup, obviously). Likewise, players are more familiar with what the guy at the plate will do if they’re used to hitting in front of him, especially in terms of things like hit-and-run, batter activity on a stolen base, even batter reaction time to signal on a wild pitch/passed ball.
Obviously, any benefit gained here is going to be a small one, and there’s absolutely no way to truly measure it, but it’s there.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
We can let the exceptions define the rule . ..
When the team is playing KNOWN mediocrities and crippled stars.
Hopefully next year will be a different story.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
1. You said "early summer."
Aviles had taken over as the starting SS before summer ever even started.
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
Guillen was hurt this much even through his hot streak. His injury is decreasing his range in the field, but I don’t think it is affecting his hitting.
That’s depressing.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
You really dislike Guillen, don't you?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
It doesn't have to be personal against Guillen
Because if this year is indicative of what they’re getting it looks like a bad signing to this point.
You take out May 4 – July 4 and he’s simply not a very productive hitter.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
He's still got something to prove, I think
but I think he still might
And re: starting pitching, I’m a little higher on them than you are. The 1-2 are 1-2 because they’re the best on the team. Our 3-4-5 guys have honest been, well, 3-4-5 guys. I wouldn’t lose any sleep if the starting rotation were the exact same next year as this (well, I’d like to see Rosa instead of Davies).
Not so sure
that we disagree here. There’s something to like about Hochevar and how he fits the way the team is being built. I actually think I am higher on him that most.
Davies is a bullpen killer and I think a decision will have to be made on him soon.
Bannister is the kind of guy we want to love and I get the impression he is fiddling. The good thing is he can survive as an innings eater because he understands the game enough- he just has to last in the bigs long enough to be an established guy. Next year is critical for him ’d think.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah that rotation would be pretty damned good
Greinke
Meche
Hochevar
Bannister
Rosa
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
The staff as whole is bright spot
and when the offense and defense catch up to them look out.
My not-so secret fear is that the pitching and offense is organizationally out-of -sync. When the offense gets good, the pitching won’t be there.
That’s another area that I have a lot of confidence in Moore. In a year or two, we’ll see how his first draft pans out but his emphasis on drafting pitching eases that anxiety.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Oops, I misread
the starting rotation as in the list of downsides. Yeah, I think we probably agree, haha.
I dunno
I’m sure I’ll look back on this season of Guillen and laugh at his pecadillos. I’m even doing it a bit now. He’s entertaining and fodder for discussion, to say the least.
I will say that it is a lot less fun when he isn’t hitting well, and that’s been most of this season.
Part of it is that, like a lot of people on this site (and you might be able to think of a couple, NYRoyal [ahem]), I’m a contrarian. During the hot streak and the “babies” episode, Jose Guillen became a minor hero to some here and to people like Sam Mellinger, who, despite supposedly being one of “us” (a stats guy), sees Jose as leader who gives the locker room necessary kicks in the ass and thinks the signing was ‘great.’
My inner high-school debater (along with, it must be admitted, some of my high school maturity level) kicks in when I read stuff like that. Really? $12 million dollars for a corner outfielder with an 89 OPS+ is “great?” Almost 6 millions dollars of for each point of VORP (currently 2.1) is “great?”
I don’t have to dislike Jose Guillen to see this. I get all I need to know without thinking about his winning personality and helpful pep talks. Without a doubt, he was good in May and great in June. But that is already included in the stats above. While I disagree with vegasroyals claim that this has been a “wasted year,” I think he’s being a bit generous in saying that
take out May 4 – July 4 and he’s simply not a very productive hitter.
Even if you include that streak Guillen hasn’t been a productive hitter. That streak is the only thing that saves Guillen’s year from turning from being a total disaster, instead of simple terrible. I don’t think it’s due to an emotional overreaction that I think that an 89 OPS+ from a corner outfielder sucks. If anything, the people who are overreacting are those who somehow think that magnificent hot streak (and it was a lot of fun — the homer off Rivera, especially) somewhat balances out his near-TPJ (2007 edition) performance the rest of the year.
I don’t know how to weight platoon splits exactly. We all know that Alex Gordon has been awful against lefties (although people tend to forget that he’s been the best Royal hitter against righties — excluding DDJ, he’s by far been the best against righties). Well, Jose Guillen hasn’t been as bad against righties as Alex against lefties. And he’s been decent against them over his career. But this year? .650 OPS against righties. So he’s hit the heck out of lefties… but what this means is that he’s been a really expensive platoon guy — on the short side of the platoon. Against righties, Grudz, Mark Teahen, and the Pride of South Florida, Russ Gload have all been better. I realize that Teahen and Gload are lefties, but wouldn’t you expect Jose Guillen to be better against righties than those guys? I did.
I was leery of the Guillen signing, yes. But I did want him to do well. I’m on record as saying that he’s the type of hitter (low patience, low walk rate) that’s streaky by nature, and also that I’m thinking he has one more hot streak in him. So it’s not just an irrational “I sure hope he sucks so I’m right.” I want him to do well, because that helps the Royals. But even if he goes on another mammoth hot streak and he gets to 100 OPS+ (and at this point it will take another unbelievable month-and-half to do that), his year will still have been bad because he’s a corner outfielder whose defense has been below average at best and who has played more than a quarter of his games (so far) at DH.
Does this doom the signing? No, not necessarily. The issue of what exactly constitutes “overpaying” is a complicated one that we can’t get into here. I don’t even think one has to get into the amorphous issue of “the Royals need to show that they’re willing to spend in order to attract other free agents in the future” to see that this could make sense, i.e., I don’t think that $12 million dollars for a league average outfielder is a bad deal for the Royals.
The problem is that Guillen hasn’t even been a league average hitter, much less corner outfielder. He might be the next two years, we’ll see. If the injury really didn’t affect his hitting, though, I think Royals fans have reason to be worried about those odds. And none of that has to do with an irrational “dislike” for Jose Guillen.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 15, 2008 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I pretty much agree with you
I was just poking a little fun at the frequency with which you dig at Guillen. But those digs are, for the most part, fair. And I also didn’t like the “he’s a leader” BS. I don’t think his outbursts hurt the team, but they certainly don’t help either. If you’ve got fire, grit, heart, moxy, leadership and $5, you can get a cup of coffee at Starbucks.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
yes, but if you have moxy and grit
they will pour it for you faster
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I'm pretty sure the trembling Starbucks baristas
have Jose’s orders done in record time.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 15, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I should have known
especially given my “contrarian” comment.
I should have taken the time I spent typing that obvious thing into getting out all my thoughts on the “backup plan” of signing Furcal or Hudson on the other thread, but I have exhausted my “unncessarily long response to a comment” quota for the afternoon. Short version: like most, I would rather overpay Dunn/Burrell more for a shorter term contract than get the marginal upgrade in the middle that I think either guy would represent.
But they might be better than that, given the uncertainty. What will Aviles do once his deal with the devil [at least against lefties] expires? Would moving him to second offset his offensive value enough to cancel out the defensive advantage (assuming Furcal is the target)? Callaspo’s “injury” also means we didn’t get to see if he can be a league average 2B, which would mean that I’d be inclined to save the money (enough with the “impress FA signings,” I hope two is enough). That, plus Hudson and Furcal are both coming off injuries in their 30s.
Well, I guess I’ve already gone on too long, just without the precision and detail I was hoping for. My well-documented bromance with O-Dog really, really wants me to find a reason to argue he should come to KC (In TO he did a really cool piece on the Negro Leagues museum), but I also have real doubts about his hitting outside of Arizona and against lefties. Hopefully, with Baird gone, people won’t be swayed too much by the time he hit homers from both sides of the plate against KC a few years back. He does have a perfect blend of ability and grit, though. He would be an instant fan favorite and face of the franchise, though.
(Holding back on jokes about how “dangerous” an MI of Furcal and Callaspo might be).
Oh well, Dayton’s not enough of a smooth-talking pimp to real O-Dog in, anyway (sigh).
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 15, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
A very short comment on Furcal/Hudson
Short version: like most, I would rather overpay Dunn/Burrell more for a shorter term contract than get the marginal upgrade in the middle that I think either guy would represent.
While I prefer Dunn or Burrell as well, I think Fural or Hudson would represent a significant upgrade when you consider both their offense and defense. Basically I like Aviles-Hudson or Aviles-Furcal a lot more than Aviles-Callaspo/German.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
These posts always show up after...
…a bad series. But if you think about it, the difference between this being a decent season and what we have now is that horrible May losing streak. If that’s even a .500 stretch, we’re way more enthused. We can’t call this a horrible season because of two bad weeks (and Buck’s current hitless streak, or Pena, Jr., or Guillen, or Gordon’s slow development, or Butler being sent down, etc.). We could be in a lot worse shape. – TL
We have been in worse shape
and I hope that I haven’t made it sound like I’m down on the long-term future of the franchise.
I’m not at all.
We’re obviously arguing about marginal gains here. No one is expecting Shane Costa or Mitch Maier to be part of the core of this team even though that’s the straw man argument that always gets knocked down when their names are brought up. I’d also argue that Mike Aviles doesn’t project out to be part of the long-term answer either and the way things are playing out, you can count Mark Teahen out as well.
But with those things having been said, I think that this is a year of transition- and I had hoped [like of lot of people] that we would have had more questions answered this year than we did. Are the answers things that would have changed what we think we know about the core of the team?
In some cases yes. We could have learned a lot about the future of the right side of the infield. In other cases, no. We’re talking about fourth and fifth outfielders or trade-throw-ins.
I suppose 2009 will be the year that I thought 2008 would be.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
good point
While there’s are as many good reasons to keep Kila in AAA as there are to bring him up, why don’t we at least look at other options in the interim?
It’s not too late to get Shealy a couple of months of playing time up here, and see if he’s worth holding on to. It’s time, one way or another, to end the Gload experiment.
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No, you've just been reading too many of my posts
+1 on Shealy — fish or cut bait, but find out.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 15, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll propose something they could have done
(and for the record, I was proposing it back in ST)
They could have signed Bonds for DH. That would essentially have replaced Gload with Bonds.
Granted, we still wouldn’t have made the playoffs, but we might have played 500 ball for the season. That has GREAT VALUE in KC, because it would help fuel excitement for next season. Combine that with the newly renovated stadium, and maybe it helps generate enough revenue to significantly upgrade the payroll going forward.
Bonds
completely dropped off my radar.
Good point though. There is a PR opportunity that’s being missed.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
"a PR opportunity that's being missed"
Bonds = good PR?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Not in the sense you mean
I mean that KC has more than a performance issue because even if the Royals were playing .500 ball they would be irrelevant in the sporting world. Bonds would have changed that immediately.
That might not be an everyday positive but he brings attention- attention that is directed towards him. Guillen is trying to fill that role of someone who takes the attention away from the younger players.
Meanwhile, people see the Royals and say “hey, it’s not just Bonds. There is something going on there with that staff and some of the young hitters.”
Maybe the idiots from Fox aren’t totally drawing a blank at the ASG when Soria is pitching.
It’s a way to jumpstart the buzz.
PR has a logic of its own.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think its a wasted year at all
Its never a wasted year when you have a lot of young guys. This year gave us another data point for:
Alex Gordon
Billy Butler
Mark Teahen
David DeJesus
Tony Pena
Mike Aviles
John Buck
Brian Bannister
Zack Greinke
Luke Hochevar
Joakim Soria
Leo Nunez
Ramon Ramirez
We are in a much better position to make decisions on these guys. Our record may be similar to last season, but I feel like we’ve made progress.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Maybe
I should have posted the title with a question mark.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
by vegasroyals on Aug 15, 2008 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Good point
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I really think
we are two power hitters from being real players in the Central. Our rotation is solid particularly if we swap out Rosa for Davies. We need some power in the lineup either two corner OF’s and slide Guillen to DH, or look for a DH and OF. Kiaahue might be the answer at DH in a platoon with Butler, which would leave one FA signing over the winter. Bullpen’s can be torn apart and rebuilt each year as long as the core (Nunez, Ramirez, Soria) remains. Hope is there for the future, the last two series have been extremely frustrating to watch.
Some good ideas
but Guillen’s only real chance of being valuble to the Royals is if he can stay in the Corner OF. I don’t see him hitting well enough during his contract to be a full-time (or “most-time”) DH. It’s not inconceivable that Butler will have a higher OPS than him by the end of the year.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 15, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
My take on Guillen
He’s not the type of hitter/player to be “the guy”. I think he has struggled this year because he is tyring to do everything. He gets up there and looks behind him and thinks, “Well, no one else is going to do it so I better hit the crap out of this ball.” If he had another power hitter in the lineup then he could be in the 5 spot and not have to feel like it’s all on his shoulders.
Would this mean that he put up mvp numbers? No, his past has shown that he is streaky, but I do believe that his numbers would be a little better if our lineup as a whole wasn’t so bad. I think they could be similar to his numbers last year in Seattle but maybe not quite as good with the injuries he’s had.
I don’t have any legitimate evidence or stats to back it up, but it’s kind of the feeling I have about a lot of hitters in our lineup this year.
by I need more Esteban on Aug 15, 2008 1:27 PM EDT reply actions
He's definitely not a cornerstone
But I think he’s still a reasonable building block. Undoubtedly overpaid for a building block, but there you go. Such is life as the KC Royals who have to overpay for building blocks. Hopefully he becomes surrounded by better players soon (though the development of guys like Gordon and Butler as well as FA and/or trade acquisitions).
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
His "good" this year was
tantalizing.
But when Gordon and Butler hadn’t developed as quickly as we had hoped and Teahen giving more evidence that 06 was a fluke it does look like Guillen was pressing, then hurt, then hurt and pressing.
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
ON Guillen
Yes, his numbers are bad this year (OBP is bad, SLG is about where we expected it).
Yes, he is getting to the point where he should start to decline due to age.
That being said, I don’t think anybody could have predicted his OBP to drop this much – the guy was regularly between 330 and 350 the last few years. A reasonable age-based decline might be, say between 315 and 330?
So, what happened? I think it’s most likely just an aberration – a bad season, perhaps caused in part by injuries. If it truly is the onset of an early and faster-than-normal decline, then yikes, we have a bad contract on our hands. I’m going to be optimistic, and predict that Guillen will return to near his prior level the next two years for us.
Guillen's career walk rates
6.3%
5.2%
4.1%
5.4%
4.5%
6.0%
5.1%
5.6%
6.2%
3.1%
i can come up with a number of theories why, but in the end, the fact is his walk rate is at career low’s this year
I think Guillen won't be with the team for all of 2009.
GMDM may just decide to flip him for prospects. When talking about the rotation we should remember who will be in Omaha next season. Right now we have Rosa and that is about it in Omaha. Next year we will have Cortez, Pimental, Johnson, and maybe (MAYBE) Rowdy Hardy pitching for the ORoyals. One or two of those could even be in the Royals rotation by the end of the season. Yes, this season has been frustrating and we did expect a lot better, I still think the glass is half full and we are moving in the right direction. I disgree with the whole Bonds thing… Sosa would have been cheaper and probably could have played the outfield.
Omaha pitching in 2009
I’m pretty sure Pimentel and Johnson will repeat AA next year. J.J. Picollo has said that all of the NWA pitchers should start next year in AA with the possible exception of Cortes. Now, either or both of Pimentel and Johnson could certainly be a mid-season call up to Omaha if they figure some things out. Rowdy Hardy still has a lot to figure out.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Rowdy Hardy still has a lot to figure out.
What, other than how to add 10 mph to his fastball?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 15, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Or how to convince batters to make an out instead of a hit
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions
In the new
issue of ESPN the mag, there is a little lblurb in the MLB section about how KC is sick of Guillen’s “Constant Complaining” already and will look to move him this winter
Sounds like the ESPN Deportes story
…which didn’t appear to have much foundation, or legs
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 15, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
What
was he in the calendar too?
. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche
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