That is the question.

John Buck, our longtime backstop,  will once again be eligible for arbitration this winter after landing a one year $2.2 million deal this year. The Royals have three options (a) sign him to a contract; (b) tender him and have his contract determined by an arbiter; or (c) non-tender him, making him a free agent.

When we acquired John, I think we all had visions of Mike MacFarlane, quite possibly the greatest catcher in franchise history. He was a guy who didn't hit for much of an average, but was gritty, played solid defense, and could slug .430-.460. Buck has now played nearly four and a half seasons in Kansas City, and while no one has preached patience on Buck more than I, he has now reached an age where any hope of him turning a corner is slowly disappearing.

First, let's take a look at the facts:

Age   AVG  OBA  SLG OPS+

 23    .235  .280 .424   79

 24    .242  .287 .389   79

 25    .245  .306 .396   80

 26    .222  .308 .429   90

 27    .222  .294 .363   72

 Car   .234  .296 .399   80

It looked like he might be turning a corner when he posted a .245/.330/.542 with 15 home runs in the first half of 2007. But he went on a terrible slide in the second half and has hit just .213/.289/.339 in the last year and a half.

Rany is still a believer, hoping that Buck can enjoy a Mike Stanley-esque breakout season. Stanley began to really hit at age 28, and didn't get a full-time shot until age 30 when he really blossomed. While its true that many times catchers blossom later than other hitters, I haven't seen evidence of this other than a few selected players. If there is a study that exhaustively shows catchers develop at a later age than other players, I will certainly renew my hope in Buck. I'm just not sure such a study exists.

At any rate, Rany still believes Buck, while not a star, can still be a guy we can win around.

After DeJesus and Aviles, the third-best hitter on the roster relative to his position is probably John Buck. He’s got five homers in July after hitting just three in the first three months, and he’s approaching a career high in doubles. He’s not a star and may never be one, but you can definitely make the playoffs with a guy like this behind the plate.

If that's true, you can make the playoffs with pretty much any full-time regular currently playing. Out of 29 catchers with at least 250 plate appearances, Buck ranks 24th in OPS+ at 72. Out of 41 catchers with at least 1000 plate appearances since 2004, Buck ranks 33rd in OPS+ at 80.

Perhaps even more troubling has been Buck's slide in defense. It is hard to get a grasp of how good a catcher's overall defense is. Buck has allowed the same number of passed balls as last year, committed about the same number of errors, and has allowed about the same number of wild pitches. But in the last two years he has become much, much worse at throwing out potential basestealers. In his first three seasons, Buck threw out 34% of would-be basestealers. In the last two seasons, he has thrown out just 19%. It is true this is just one aspect of a catcher's defensive assignment, but it is an important one. Even more troubling is that recently, Buck's throws have not even been close. Perhaps his pitching staff shoulders some of the blame for his slide, but it also seems to those watching him that Buck is not as quick behind the plate as he once was.

His deficiencies in throwing out runners perhaps are outweighed by his handling of the pitching staff. Some writers attribute the success of many of our pitchers, particularly Gil Meche. However opponents are hitting nearly the same with Buck behind the plate (.267/.331/.424) as they are with Olivo (.276/.340/.436). Last year, opponents were slightly worse with Buck (.276/.335/.441) than with LaRue (.280/.346/.461) behind the plate. So if there is an effect, I'm not sure I'm seeing it.

NYRoyal has estimated Buck to receive a salary of $4 million next season. Is Buck worth that salary?

Here are the catchers available this off-season:

Rod Barajas TOR
Henry Blanco * CHC
Johnny Estrada WAS
Toby Hall * CWS
Adam Melhuse COL
Mike Redmond * MIN
Ivan Rodriguez NYY
David Ross * CIN
Javier Valentin CIN
Jason Varitek BOS
Vance Wilson DET
Gregg Zaun * TOR

*-option

Rodriguez and Varitek are out of the question. Zaun is a former Royal who has always shown an ability to draw a walk, but lacks power and is declining in his late 30s. Redmond has been a pretty good hitter (particularly against the Royals!) as a backup to Joe Mauer, but he too is declining in his late 30s. Estrada is arguably the worst defensive catcher in the league and a clubhouse cancer. Henry Blanco, Toby Hall and Adam Melhuse have never been much with the bat. Vance Wilson is hurt and old. That really leaves us with four candidates.

Rod Barajas - he puts up numbers similar to what Buck did in his best season, 2007. Doesn't hit for much average or draw walks, like Buck, but consistently hits for more power than John. And he could come cheaper - he signed a $400k deal with Toronto with a club option for $2.5 million in 2009. If they decline his deal, he might be willing to sign a deal to start in Kansas City for $2 million with an option for 2010.

Miguel Olivo - we've seen what he can do here in Kansas City this year. He's having a career season, but even if he regresses to career norms, he still provides as much or more power than Buck. His downside is that he doesn't draw any walks whatsoever. He has a player option for 2009 for $2.7 million which he may turn down to become the starter elsewhere. But if the Royals non-tender Buck and make him the starter, we could retain him.

David Ross - an intriguing player recently released by the Reds. He has tremendous power - he hit 38 home runs over 2006-2007. He's drawn a ridiculous 28 unintentional walks in 52 games, despite hitting .231 this season. But he's a lifetime .223 hitter, including an awful .203 last year. But his career numbers are similar to Buck's, and he's thrown out 39% of basestealers. He could be had for very little, and at age 32 next spring, he would not be all that old.

Javier Valentin - career backup with better career numbers than Buck (.251/.308/.401). Can draw a few walks, can hit with a bit of power. But not much upside here. If you wanted a really low cost option who can possibly provide the same numbers, Valentin would be your man.

So the free agent options  may save you some money, or provide slightly better results, but we're not talking about a huge upgrade here. And you'd be giving up any upside, no matter how small, that Buck still has.

Perhaps catching can be addressed via trade, although I've warned about the folly of trading for a catcher.

I think Brayan Pena and Matt Tupman could both make fine backups in the Major Leagues, but neither seem to be good enough to be an upgrade over Buck full-time.

Are we stuck with Buck? Can we win with him in the lineup?

Tender? Or non-tender?