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Reshaping the Roster, A Retrospective: Part III The Minors

Last month, Will (royalsreview) reviewed the changes Dayton Moore has made to the big league roster since taking the reins of the organization in the 2006 season.  In Part I, he reviewed the major league position players and in Part II, he reviewed the major league pitchers.

In addition to inheriting a poor major league team, Dayton Moore inherited a minor league system that was in tatters.  According to Baseball America, this is how the Royals minor league system ranked in the five years leading up to his take over: 

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

21

26

19

28

23

Now let’s see how the Royals top 20 prospects have changed from the organization that Moore inherited during the 2006 season to the one they have now (2006 is BA’s list and 2009 is my list):

2006

Rank

2009

Alex Gordon, 3B

1

Mike Moustakas, IF

Billy Butler, OF

2

Eric Hosmer, 1B

Justin Huber, 1B

3

Dan Cortes, RHP

Chris Lubanski, OF

4

Carlos Rosa, RHP

Jeff Bianchi, SS

5

Tim Melville, RHP

Luis Cota, RHP

6

Dan Duffy, LHP

Chris McConnell, SS

7

Blake Wood, RHP*

Mitch Maier, OF

8

Kila Kaaihue, 1B

Donnie Murphy, 2B

9

Michael Montgomery, LHP

Shane Costa, OF

10

Joe Dickerson, OF

Billy Buckner, RHP

11

Julio Pimentel, RHP

Brian Bass, RHP

12

Daniel Gutierrez, RHP

Adam Donachie, C

13

Edward Cegarra, RHP

Angel Sanchez, SS

14

Tyler Sample, RHP

Danny Christensen, LHP

15

Johnny Giavotella, 2B

Erik Cordier, RHP

16

Derrick Robinson, OF*

Joe Dickerson, OF

17

Blake Johnson, RHP

Jose Duarte, OF

18

Matt Mitchell, RHP

Chris Nicoll, RHP

19

Sam Runion, RHP

Kila Kaaihue, 1B

20

Jason Taylor, 3B

Bold = acquired during Dayton Moore’s tenure as GM

* The Royals, Braves and Dayton Moore made a deal that Moore would take over as GM in late May 2006 but not take part in the Royals amateur draft.  While some don’t believe Moore did not take part in the draft decisions in 2006, I think that Moore would and did honor the deal that he and the Royals made with the Braves.  So I don’t give him the credit or blame for anything in the 2006 draft.  If you disagree with this assessment, then Moore gets the credit/blame for Blake Wood and Derrick Robinson.

Star-divide

It is difficult to evaluate minor league systems of the past versus the present because the prospects from the older rankings have had more of a chance to prove themselves, or not, while the current prospects are all unproven.  So I’m evaluating the 2006 prospects based on how they were seen at the time.  The color coded sections are my attempt to roughly group the prospects by quality.  Blue represents top prospects (roughly top 100 MLB quality prospects).  Green represents good prospects, and so on.

First, let’s look at the pitchers:

2006

Rank

2009

Luis Cota, RHP

1

Dan Cortes, RHP

Billy Buckner, RHP

2

Carlos Rosa, RHP

Brian Bass, RHP

3

Tim Melville, RHP

Danny Christensen, LHP

4

Dan Duffy, LHP

Erik Cordier, RHP

5

Blake Wood, RHP*

Chris Nicoll, RHP

6

Michael Montgomery, LHP

 

7

Julio Pimentel, RHP

 

8

Daniel Gutierrez, RHP

 

9

Edward Cegarra, RHP

 

10

Tyler Sample, RHP

 

11

Blake Johnson, RHP

 

12

Matt Mitchell, RHP

 

13

Sam Runion, RHP

There’s no comparison here.  Going into the 2006 season, the Royals had no genuinely good pitching prospects, while the system is now loaded with quality pitching prospects.  While the cupboard was bare in 2006, in 2009 the Royals have multiple top 100 quality pitching prospects as well as tremendous depth in their minor league system.  Both Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus and Rany Jazayerli have said the Royals currently have one of some of the best pitching of any minor league system.

And now the position players:

2006

Rank

2009

Alex Gordon, 3B

1

Mike Moustakas, IF

Billy Butler, OF

2

Eric Hosmer, 1B

Justin Huber, 1B

3

Kila Kaaihue, 1B

Chris Lubanski, OF

4

Joe Dickerson, OF

Jeff Bianchi, SS

5

Johnny Giavotella, 2B

Chris McConnell, SS

6

Derrick Robinson, OF*

Mitch Maier, OF

7

Jason Taylor, 3B

Donnie Murphy, 2B

8

 

Shane Costa, OF

9

 

Adam Donachie, C

10

 

Angel Sanchez, SS

11

 

Joe Dickerson, OF

12

 

Jose Duarte, OF

13

 

Kila Kaaihue, 1B

14

 

These two lists look very similar to me.  There are two elite position player prospects and then a bunch of ok prospects.  The 2006 system might have had a little bit more mediocre depth, but that’s about it.  If the original list went beyond the top 20, I could have listed many more mediocre position player prospects for the 2009 system (whoopie!)

So how do the two systems compare overall?  In 2006, the Royals had two elite prospects.  For 2009, the Royals have five prospects who could easily make the top 100.  The Royals also currently have better prospect depth.  Depending on where you draw the line for “good” prospects, the 2009 system goes 10-15 deep, while the 2006 system went only 6-11 deep.  So the current Royals minor league system is better at the top, and has better depth.

But, as with the analysis of the major league team, great improvement has been made regarding the pitchers, but not so much with the position players.  While the Royals minor league pitching has improved greatly system-wide, the position player situation remains unimproved.  Moore has effectively replaced the top position player prospects who have graduated to the majors (Gordon and Butler), but has done little else.

So, Dayton Moore has done half of his job in rebuilding the minor league system.  The Royals minor league pitching has gone from awful to spectacular.  But the position players remain woefully inadequate.  I would argue that in two years one cannot expect a GM to completely turn everything around.  He has completely re-stocked the minors with pitchers, perhaps even overstocked.  Now, he needs to start spending the currency of baseball and start turning some of the pitchers (either major league, minor league or both) into position players.

Overall, I would say that Moore has done a good job of rebuilding the minor league system in two years.  But it is clearly not a job that is even close to being done.  I think next year’s organizational rankings will have the Royals around the middle of the pack, thanks to great pitching and multiple top 100 prospects.  But that’s not enough.  The organization needs more quality position player prospects. 

2 recs | Comment 108 comments

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I was reading a neutral forum

Very knowledgeable minor league fans. They ALL had the Royals minor league system in the top 10, and a few in the top 5.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 28, 2008 1:54 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's good to hear

I think top 10 is fair. I just didn’t want to go that far in this post and sound like some kind of Royals-homer, Dayton Moore-loving apologist. That top 5 which could easily make the top 100 for next year along with the tremendous pitching depth goes a long way.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 28, 2008 2:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can't wait to see where it ranks after the Royals redraft Alvarez next year

MUAHAHAHA

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 2:21 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

as much as you may be considered a dayton apologist...

theres really no argument that the minor league talent has improved….

is that based on daytons scouting ability? thats debatable…he got the glass’ to open the checkbook which is very valuable in itself…but if you look at the MLB spending…the team has spent a shit ton more money…and hasnt really gotten any better…

god damn this season frustrates me…my whipping boy pitches (arguably) his best game of the year…then he blows it by dropping a popup at the mound and letting a guy score the winning run from 2nd….

my sanity really needs these prospects to do something….i was looking to argue to the ‘5 top 100’ thing….just b/c i didnt see it…then i looked at the list and realized we could very easily have 6…although i still think cortes and rosa profile out to 3-4 starters…we could really use some 3-4 starters

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Aug 28, 2008 3:03 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

we also have several guys

that could easily be labeled future top 100 guys.

There is no question we’ve improved though. Remember, Dayton isn’t just trying to turn around a bad team, he is trying to turn around an all-time terrible team. And in a few years he has turned us into a 70+win team with a lot of potential and a couple of possible 40+HR guys in the minors along with some of the best low minors pitching depth.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Aug 28, 2008 3:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

great post

seriously… the whole 2006 situation is a really bizarre one, and borderline questionable

hpw moore put himself in that situation i do not know

"So whattya say, should we clean this place up?" - Tom Cruise

by DyeFan187 on Aug 28, 2008 6:02 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Why wouldn't he?

The 2006 draft was a genius move it gives him a extra year of “Hey that’s not my player.” I’m sure Glass knows what happened but what if Hoch was the only player GMDM had any control over then GMDM has a scapegoat of I’ve only been doing this with full control for 2 years now. To me it shows how smart GMDM is.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 28, 2008 9:34 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Let the boys play together?

What do you think of this lineup? all starting in Wilmington?
1. Joe Dickerson
2. Derrick Robinson
3. Johnny Giavotella
4. Jason Taylor
5. Mike Moustakas
6. Eric Hosmer
7. Kyle Martin
8. Salvador Perez
9. Paulo Orlando

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Aug 28, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not into it

Why dwarf Orlando/Dickerson’s development for the sake of a little unity? Dickerson/Orlando deserves to play in AA next year. Also as good as Giavotella has played don’t be shocked if Bianchi finally bust out next year. I think his power is gonna show up in AA and being healthy for most of the year this year will help him also. KC should be set at 2b with either Giavotella or Bianchi.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 28, 2008 11:07 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yup

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but with Aviles (potential 2B if necessary), Callaspo, German (I’d make him the Utility guy next year if Hudson/Furcal aren’t signed), Bianchi, and LIttle Guido, the Royals might actually have (gasp!) organizational depth at a position!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 11:34 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Some signs of hope

And this will either make or break the Dayton More tenure.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 28, 2008 10:41 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Someone from this draft and the last one has to become a "superstar"

whatever that means. 30+ VORP every year?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 11:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Once again, I can't tell if you're serious or not.

Happily, that’s okay, because I don’t know if LIFE is serious or not.

Anyhow, I think you’d have to play pretty effing good defense to be considered a superstar with a 30 VORP, so perhaps a bit higher than that.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 11:37 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess I'm an idiot, because I was sort of serious

I’m just trying to figure out, “out loud,” what the superstar/acceptable draft return level of VORP is. I was going to put “50,” but then I thought everyone would be all over me for setting the standards too high.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 11:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess "superstar" is a lot about perception, too

but I think 50 VORP is a good rough baseline for an elite year at the plate. That’s pretty subjective of me to say, though, so I wouldn’t say you’re an idiot for suggesting a lower number.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 11:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

40?

I love you, man

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 11:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

classic

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Aug 28, 2008 4:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Quick example of why "30+"

is a little vague-ish…Jhonny Peralta has a 36.8 VORP.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 11:55 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good point

I’ve actuallly seen that number, too. I don’t think he’s a superstar talent. Not even close. But it gives me two thoughts

1) Wow, for as “disappointing” as he’s been, Peralta’s actually been pretty damn good,

and

2) Wow, JOHNNY FREAKING PERALTA has been by far more productive than anyone on KC (I know Aviles doesn’t have the ABs…)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 11:57 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Peralta strikes me as a lot like Troy Glaus

in that has one huge year seems to have cast some rather silly disappointment over what has been a pretty darn good career.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mark Quinn!

Darin Erstad!

The Unfairly Maligned Army of the Undead!

[Mark Teahen?]

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Depends on

How many movie stars you’re sleeping with.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 28, 2008 12:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ahaha

That reminds me of the time that I convinced my friend that I was dating one of the RR favorite gals. Good times.

Does that make me a superstar?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL... who was the girl?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

S-Jo

Really, don’t ask me how I pulled that off. It wouldn’t make sense if I tried to explain it. Suffice to say that that particular friend has common sense issues sometimes.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hell, she's ENGAGED to Van Wilder,

how hard could it be?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's what she asked

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Aug 28, 2008 3:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We're talking about Barry Zito, right?

Oh, right, how many movie stars a player has dated, not a movie star who has dated many players…

You know, Jeter, for all his overratedness (which I think is overrated in itself, given that thre fawning press,etc. while giving him stupid accolades and awards he shouldn’t get, like Gold Gloves, fucked him out of two MVP awards [1999, 2006], this is an interesting phenomenon in itself) and his crappy performance. Well, he hasn’t been horrible this year. He’ll end up with over a 30 VORP (superstar!!!). And his defense has miraculously been middle of the pack (another weird Jeter phenomen: any time the MSM catches on and starts writing “Jeter’s defense sucks” story, he will have a decent year on defense. His offense will then drop off).

It’s not like they’re paying him $10 million+ this year, right?

D’oh. That’s WHACK.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jeter is a HoFer, I know

But one thing that’s always amazed me is his amazing ability to NEVER get critiscized for the ridiculous amount of money he makes every year. As someone who sat back and laughed as Manny Ramirez became “overpaid” during every fielding mishap, I just have to tip my cap to Derek on that one.

And apparently he got with Jessica Biel. Bastard.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wonder if he gave her the same gift

he gave to Jessica Alba?

You’re right, he doesn’t get criticized enough. I don’t think the contract was terrible. The main thing that gets me is the MVP irony… the two time he DOES deserve something, he can’t get it. In a weird way, that’s the most damning evidence of old-school sports journalists’ incompetence re: analysis — they can’t even get their Golden Boy right.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's not a bad contract

it’s just ridiculous how he manages to escape ridicule while dozens of other big earners take flak for their salaries when they make less than he does.

And…no comment on the Alba thing. I miss your hotness, Jessica.

Yeah…at this point, it takes a pretty good effort for me to take mainstream awards seriously.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And yet I'm reminded

That in 2000 we were considered one of the best minor league systems in baseball.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 28, 2008 11:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Moose numbers since April

.292 ba .353 obp .526 slg – .879 ops not too shabby for Moose since the bad start.

Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin

by kcscoliny on Aug 28, 2008 11:12 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

HRs are boring

and slow down the excitement of the game.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One more year and

Duffy and Montgomery could be in the top 100 as well.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Aug 28, 2008 11:25 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Duffy might be this year

I emphasize MIGHT. I think Moose, Hosmer, and Cortes are locks. But you never know how BA and other sources will like more between Melville, Kaaihue, Duffy, Rosa…

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 28, 2008 2:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I fell pretty sage saying they're not going to like Kaaihue the best

considering that despite his continued raking, he hasn’t made the hot sheet in a while.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I also feel "safe"

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's probably true

Maybe on BP though. Goldstein has said some nice things about him.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 28, 2008 2:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm loving the pitching depth.

Don’t get me wrong, I like Kaaihue and Moustakas (though they’re completely different cases) and I love that Hosmer signed. Still, I think it’s a huge positive that pitching in this organization is so good. Of course I’d rather us have good depth on both sides of the ball, but with this many good pitching prospects I like that we can deal from strength to acquire hitting talent AND still have the pitching side of the organization be a plus. I don’t want to get crazy here, but I see a little bit of the Rays’ gameplan in the Royals organization right now.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 11:30 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree

I just won’l be totally sold until I’m convinced that pitching really is the currency of baseball, and that those pitching prospects can fetch good position player who aren’t just rentals.

I guess I have the Gload, TPJ, and Gathright acquisitions to go on.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 11:37 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Way to kill my buzz

But seriously, we need more hitting depth one way or another. And I think we stand a very good chance of improving the offense in the near future by using the pitching depth in this organization. It’s a plus that we need to use to turn this from “an organizational strength” to an actual good baseball team.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 11:39 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess I'm a bit worried now that teams are valuing their young talent more

Are they gonig to want to trade it away for for another team’s young talent?

I’m not saying it can’t or won’t happen, I just can’t quite get that excited until it starts to happen. I’d love to see a Garza/Young type of trade… but of course, the team who got the position player got screwed. Well, for this year, anyway. I’m a subjective jerk, I’d like to see Delmon crash and burn, but he’s coming around a bit, and he is really, really young.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 11:53 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's always the Astros

though of course, they’re out of young talent.

I’m with you on how it’s tough to get excited quite yet, but this is going to be a gradual process. Good trades to fuel a rebuilding program’s launch into contention don’t grow on trees, and very few teams have ever pulled such a dramatic turnaround as the Rays.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

JoGui + Teahen (sob) + Gathright + Tony "Everett" Pena, Jr. for Berkman?

He’s “old,” but I guess I could live with that

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Berkman's being completely wasted on that team

and normally I wouldn’t use such a stupid phrase, but the Astros have so little hope for the near future that Berkman would be wise to GTFO while he’s still awesome. .334/.433/.601? I’ll take that, bad facial hair or no.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Neckbeards Rule!

He’d be the Kyle Orton of the AL Central.

Berkman would be a GOD in KC. He has a higher career OPS+ than Brett! (I’m not saying he’s better). I can’t believe I’m even bothering to dream, ‘cause it’s so stupid. But his personality would fit in, he’d fill a position of need (I wonder if he can still play RF/LF?). He’d instantly be the best hitter in the division.

Yep, coupled with Hosmer and Moustakas definitely being Sure Things, and the Alvarez redraft, I’m saying they should start sweeping the Plaza now.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Shit,

you mean it’s almost time for the parade already?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Valuing young talent
I guess I’m a bit worried now that teams are valuing their young talent more. Are they gonig to want to trade it away for for another team’s young talent?

I think the strong trend that everyone has recognized is that teams are valuing young talent very highly. I don’t think teams are irrationally overvaluing their own young talent. So, to undoubtedly oversimply things, if the Royals have the #40 prospect in baseball and the Rockies have the #41 prospect, the Rox probably aren’t going to hesitate to do make that kind of swap.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 28, 2008 1:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

how about a post

as the season closes, of what teams have depth at our positions of need, and how we can move some of our pitching currency to address these needs? (easy for me to ask, yet i sit here twiddling my thumbs.) Such as, hypothetically speaking, the Marlins have several good minor league corner outfielders—players W, X, Y, and Z—and player W seems like an equivilant trade value for Royals Pitcher A.

by benfunke on Aug 28, 2008 12:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, how about it, d_f?

Or did you mean me? Yes, I could do that, but it would be a LOT of speculation.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

has that ever stopped you in the past?

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Aug 28, 2008 3:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, no,

but I mean that hypothetical article would be of very little practical use.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 7:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know, it would be something to think about over the off season

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Aug 28, 2008 10:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

well, anyone with some free time on their hands

by benfunke on Aug 29, 2008 12:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that’s what she said

(setting yourself up for jokes like this is what cool people do)

by benfunke on Aug 29, 2008 12:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

that's what she said

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Aug 30, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mike Jacobs for Jimmy Gobble!!!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 28, 2008 12:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Never mind,

Retro will write the article.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I see a little bit of the Rays’ gameplan in the Royals organization right now.

Drafting in the top five every year?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Aug 28, 2008 11:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Chuckle

Point taken. The Rays rebuilding certainly hasn’t been hurt by them draft #1 or #2 every single friggin’ year.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 11:39 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And then bending the Twins over in this offseason

I know it was a “big” trade, but in all the Sanatana hype, I really think it got lost

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 11:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe the same thing will prove

to be true about the Rays and Delmon Young, but I think the Twinkies will really regret giving up Garza in the long term. Not that they don’t already.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He struck too many guys out for their taste, I guess

And Delmon had already internalized the organization plate approach.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's pretty bad, though,

when the reasons for a pitcher as talented as Garza’s availability seem to come down to “didn’t fit organizational philosophy” and “tough to work with” and such…when the player acquired for him was Delmon Young.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hould have used less pronouns

I was joking about the Twins pitching philosophy (which I actually think has worked) vs. Garza.

And I was serious about Delmon… but that just shows why they’re fucked on offense all the time. The Ortiz fiasco is one thing… Somehow they get lucky and Mauer can make enough contact that he isn’t ruined, and Morneau’s OK. But it took them this long to give Kubel enough starts. At least there’s one GM in the Central who’s going to keep hurting his team. If they could produce league average hitters the way they do pitchers…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:26 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But seriously,

there WERE rumblings that Garza was available for that trade more because he was difficult to work with than because the Twinkies didn’t like his stuff.

And yeah, to be honest I never was really onboard with the Delmon Young hype. Sure, he could still be pretty good, but look at his AAA numbers and tell me if you think that’s what a star in the making usually does. No plate discipline.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Billy Butler

with better defense (gasp!) and less power.

but he’s got shitloads of fire!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And bat speed! he's got a bat...with speed!

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Garza's no

Glenn Perkins

I remember reading a Terry Ryan article about how they don’t like “nonconformists” in their system. No long hair, no earrings. Just upstanding, aggressive hitters like Delmon Young, who’s starting to look more and more like “Dmitri Young’s little brother, what was his name?” every day.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Remember how we were bashing MSSM awards above?

Dude your getting a Delmon finished 2nd in ROY voting. Jeremy Guthrie finished…damn, did anyone vote for him?

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Banny got screwed!

I know he turned out to be kinda messed up, but does anyone else miss pre-2006 Detroit Dmitri, “Da Meat Hook,” Young? Good hitter, awesome hair. There’s a bobblehead I wish I had. Fat guy who hit like crazy. Another guy who was good and actually was gritty. A guy who had a chance at hitting for the cycle (such a significant feat, I know) by hitting a second triple and not just taking the double. That’s fucking grit.

Dmitri had a 144 OPS+ on the 2003 Tigers. I must say that I’d be shocked if Delmon ever came close to that over a full season.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I remember how good Dmitri was

compared to the rest of that team in 2003. It was hilarious.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RIP, Sweet Prince

Another d_f irrational All-stars all-timer. RIght in there for “good and really gritty” with Radke. There’s a roster I want to assemble.

Radke, Da Meat Hook, O-Dog (yes, he’s already an all-timer)…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 12:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is nothing else I can say

about that picture, except “that is FANTASTIC hair.”

The O-Dog rules. You have good taste in irrational all-stars.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Aug 28, 2008 12:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You call that good hair?

You young folks never knew the glory that was Oscar Gamble in his prime.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Aug 28, 2008 2:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He didn't have Da Meat Hook's girth, though

nice, still

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 28, 2008 2:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Drafting in the top five every year?

There are only two regulars who were Rays first rounders on the current Tampa Bay roster: BJ Upton and Evan Longoria

Most of the current team was acquired via trade (Kazmir, Garza, Jackson, Navarro, Wheeler, JP Howell, Balfour) or cheap signings (Pena, Hinske, Iwamura, Gross, Floyd), with all but Kazmir acquired by the new front office.

The Garza trade was fantastic for the Rays, but I believe it is very likely Delmon Young will become a very good hitter. Keep in mind, he is only 22-yrs-old.

by RATW on Aug 28, 2008 1:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

good post

but I’d disagree with some of the rankings. Dan Duffy is every as good a prospect as cortes, rosa, and melville. The guy’s a 19 year old power lefty with 1.14 ERA in his last 10 starts—including 0 earned runs, 4 hits, and 19 K’s over his last 15 innings. I’d say Dickerson is way too high and Taylor is way too low. Dickerson and Taylor have about the same OPS because Taylor has struggled with BA, but Taylor is 2 years younger, has shown a LOT more power, and has shown much better plate discipline with 78 walks this year to Dickerson’s 31. And Taylor has stolen 39 bases to Dickerson’s 24 while being caught less as well. There’s no comparison.

by kcdc1 on Aug 28, 2008 1:18 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

See....

Misconception about Duffy. He’s NOT a power pitcher yet. Seriously…he’s mostly 88-92 with his fastball, although he’s been as high as 95. He’s mostly a command guy with a fairly well rounded assortment of secondary pitches.

There’s a chance he could add ticks to his fastball…but it’s far from a guarantee.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 28, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, as with almost all very young prospects, a lot of his value is in projection

He’s got a projectable body which could/should lead to increased velocity, but he’s not there yet.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 28, 2008 3:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

a left-hander

who throws up to 95 at age 19 is a power lefty.

by kcdc1 on Aug 29, 2008 4:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When your fastball has average velocity, you are not yet a power pitcher

His fastball sits in the average range of 88-92. The fact that his fastball has ever gotten to 95 does not make him a power pitcher.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 29, 2008 4:17 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

agree on everything

especially the good post part — i like posts with colored charts

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Aug 28, 2008 3:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dan Duffy is every as good a prospect as cortes, rosa, and melville. The guy’s a 19 year old power lefty with 1.14 ERA in his last 10 starts—including 0 earned runs, 4 hits, and 19 K’s over his last 15 innings

Cortes and Rosa both have stuff which is equal to or better than Duffy and they have had success at higher levels than Duffy. Melville was a guess, but since BA thought he was the top HS pitcher in the draft, I’m guessing that they’ll rank him higher than Duffy. Perhaps they could be swapped. We’ll see what BA and BP have to say this winter.

Dickerson and Taylor have about the same OPS

Dickerson has a better OPS in high-A, while Taylor has a worse OPS in low-A.

There’s no comparison.

In addition to better results on the field, Dickerson is athletic with a body that projects to developing into a major leaguer. Taylor has a soft, round body that scouts and prospect analysts see as getting more round and slow as the years pass. The combination of performance, skills, tools and body are why every prospect ranking that comes out this offseason is going to have Dickerson higher than Taylor. If you’d like to make a bet on which of the two is going to be ranked higher in the Baseball America and Sickels rankings, let me know. I’m game.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 28, 2008 1:56 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

consider the bet made

stakes: winner gets to feel right for an hour.

by kcdc1 on Aug 29, 2008 4:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

and as for duffy

I think you’re forgetting that Duffy was a high draft pick last year (3rd round to Melville’s 4th round, for comparison) and was ranked the #5 propsect in the organization after putting up great stats in only 37 innings in the AZL. Cortes was #3, and Buckner was #4. Cortes has had good success at a higher level, but Duffy is younger and has been much more dominant this year. Rosa’s been great this year, but he’s also been injured a lot, and I think there are questions as to his secondary pitches. BP regarded Duffy as a better prospect last year than Rosa. Rosa had success at higher levels, but the injuries hurt his chances at passing Duffy on BP’s list. I don’t think Duffy will likely pass Cortes, but I’d bet they’ll be very close, and hopefully both will considered four-star prospects.

by kcdc1 on Aug 29, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think you’re forgetting that Duffy was a high draft pick last year (3rd round to Melville’s 4th round, for comparison)

According to every draft analyst, Melville was a first round talent who fell to the fourth round only due to signability concerns. Melville was ranked by BA as the #1 HS pitcher.

Cortes has had good success at a higher level, but Duffy is younger and has been much more dominant this year.

Cortes’s overall track record is better than Duffy’s. Cortes has dominated at high-A at a young age for that level. Cortes has done well in AA at a young age for that level. And according to everything I’ve read, Cortes has better stuff than Duffy (BA says that Cortes has the best fastball and best curveball in the system).

Rosa’s been great this year, but he’s also been injured a lot, and I think there are questions as to his secondary pitches.

The injuries are a concern, but the secondary pitches are not. Going into the season, the scouting reports on him said he had three good pitches (fastball, curveball, change). And he has improved his slider into being a good pitch this year as well. His secondary pitches are one of his greatest strengths.

BP regarded Duffy as a better prospect last year than Rosa.

And then Rosa had a breakout year, pitching very well both in AA and AAA. That being said, due to his age, Duffy might get ranked higher than Rosa. I wouldn’t agree with it, but it may well happen.

I don’t think Duffy will likely pass Cortes, but I’d bet they’ll be very close, and hopefully both will considered four-star prospects.

Cortes is a lock to be a top 65 MLB prospect on BA’s list. I think Duffy has an outside chance of barely squeezing onto that list, but I doubt he’ll make it. Given BA’s opinion of Melville, I think it is virtually certain that they’ll rank high higher than Duffy. Duffy has good success at very low minor league levels and stuff which at this point is just good, not great (certainly as compared to top 100 prospects).

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 29, 2008 4:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you really think Cortes is a lock to be that high?

where do you see our 5-6 guys all falling on the prospect lists?

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Aug 29, 2008 5:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes

I’d be surprised if he moved down from his the 50ish ranking he got going into this season. If he falls at all, it won’t be far. You should hear prospect analysts talking about him. They absolutely love him.

where do you see our 5-6 guys all falling on the prospect lists?

You mean Melville and Duffy? I think Melville will be a top 100 prospect. I can’t really guess where in the list he’d fall, maybe 70-100. Perhaps not on the list at all. Some like Duffy more than Melville. Some prospect analysts really love Duffy. Some not so much. He could crack the top 100, but I guess not.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 29, 2008 5:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i wasnt real clear....

but approximately where do you see moose, hosmer, cortes, rosa, duffy and melville sitting in the top 100 lists?

moose…10-15?, etc

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Aug 29, 2008 5:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

3 in the top 43...

and a HS pitcher who hasnt thrown an inning at 80…i’ll take it

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Aug 29, 2008 6:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And then again, I could be wildly wrong

Worst case scenario:

30. Moustakas
40. Hosmer
95. Cortes

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 29, 2008 6:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And since I'm here

Best case scenario:

10. Hosmer
11. Moustakas
30. Cortes
50. Melville
70. Rosa
75. Duffy

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 29, 2008 6:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

yeah...i'd say your first guess will be much closer,,,,

moustakas has done nothing to hurt his stock this year….shouldve improved it by proving his power is real

hosmer will end up around where moose was last year which if i recall was late 20s or so…

of the three, cortes is the only one i could see being significantly lower than your projection

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Aug 29, 2008 6:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Matt Mitchell

I think you could move him up one tier of color.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Aug 28, 2008 4:11 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's quite possible

But scouting opinion is kind of all over the place on him. Some see him as a high ceiling guy. Some see him as a truly mediocre, low-ceiling prospect.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Aug 28, 2008 4:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks for the post

good work. It will be interesting to see how many of our guys really end up in the top 100. But, it’s all projection at this point, sooner or later we need to see some results.

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Aug 28, 2008 10:41 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We have results

The Bees are in the playoffs
The Bees are in the playoffs
The Bees are in the playoffs

Ok its a start

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Aug 29, 2008 2:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

or Bee proud?

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Aug 30, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

(groan)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Aug 30, 2008 11:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

crazy people

How come no one was excited when I posted that the instant it happened? Grrr… Go Bees!

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Aug 31, 2008 10:48 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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