Top 10 pitching prospects
This list is preliminary for the offseason. Looks good to me for now though.
1) Daniel Cortes, RHP
Age: 21 | Team: Northwest Arkansas Naturals (AA)
2008 Vital Line: 3.98 ERA,110.2 IP, 106/53 K/BB
Cortes is the top pitching prospect in the Royals system right now. His stats aren't sexy, but his fastball/curveball combination is one of the best in the entire minor leagues. It's good enough that he could probably be an effective Major League reliever right now. Cortes' fastball sits at 92-96, and has touched 99 this year.
His changeup needs the most work, and you can tell because lefties are hitting .294 against him compared to only .224 against righties. He'll definitely need to keep improving it to become the top of the rotation starter he is capable of becoming.
MLB Comparison? Something like the Royals version of Gil Meche. Excellent fastball/curveball, command off at times, but absolutely dominant when things are working.
2) Carlos Rosa, RHP
Age: 23 | Team: Northwest Arkansas Naturals (AA)/Omaha Royals (AAA)/Kansas City Royals (MLB)
2008 Vital Line: 2.73 ERA, 99.0 IP, 89/19 K/BB
Rosa is more advanced than Cortes, but has a bit less upside than him and has a tad more injury concern. Rosa uses a three pitch mix -- fastball, slider, and changeup. His fastball has good velocity and movement, it sits 92-95, and I saw him hit 97 in the 7th inning of a game in Omaha this year. His slider is thrown hard, in the mid-80's and it has great downward movement.
Rosa needs to improve command with his slider and changeup to go along with his fastball. They're both good pitches, but more consistency (insert Joe Morgan joke here) would go a long ways for him. Some think Rosa would be better suited for the bullpen, and I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see him broken in as a reliever.
MLB Comparison? Normally you don't compare to someone younger, but he compares quite favorably to Johnny Cueto. Short right hander with good fastball and slider. If moved to the pen, Rafael Soriano will be a popular comparison.
3) Tim Melville, RHP
Age: 18 | Team: None
2008 Vital Line: Uh, none.
A shocking selection in the fourth round, Tim Melville lands third on the list. Melville was a first round talent that slid due to signability concerns, as many teams thought he'd honor his commitment to North Carolina and follow three other highly touted pitchers that turned down high money offers -- Andrew Miller in 2003, Alex White in 2006, and Matt Harvey in 2007.
Melville has a strong fastball already, sitting at 91-94, and compliments it with a curve and a changeup that show a lot of promise. At 6-foot-5 and 205 pounds, he could stand to put on some muscle and add a few ticks to his fastball.
His athleticism, projection, and current stuff have garnered Phil Hughes and Mark Prior comparisons at the same point. My best guess at a comparable upside? Chris Carpenter.
4) Daniel Duffy, LHP
Age: 19 | Team: Burlington Bees (Low A)
2008 Vital Line: 2.20 ERA, 81.2 IP, 102/25 K/BB
My favorite selection in the 2007 draft (I drafted him in the second round in my shadow draft I liked him so much), Duffy checks in as the top southpaw on the list. Duffy throws four pitches -- fastball, slider, curve, and changeup. The fastball checks in anywhere from 88-92 on most nights, and he can dial it up closer to 94-95 when he reaches back for a little more.
Duffy still needs to improve fastball command. He's smoothed out his delivery since last year and it has come a long ways since last year, but it still needs to get better. It might be the only thing holding him back from becoming an elite pitching prospect...
He's been frequently compared to Scott Olsen of the Marlins. Hopefully without the little attitude problems.
5) Blake Wood, RHP
Age: 23 | Team: Wilmington Blue Rocks (High A)/Northwest Arkansas Naturals (AA)
2008 Vital Line: 4.34 ERA, 141.0 IP, 139/47 K/BB
Wood came into the season as a prospect with possible helium, and he showed just why in his first start of the year by throwing 5.1 innings of one-hit ball with nine strikeouts. The whole season hasn't gone quite that smoothly for Wood, especially upon his promotion to AA, but he's performed fairly well done the stretch run.
Wood throws a good fastball that regularly sits in the low-to-mid-90's, and complements it with a hard breaking ball that he describes as a "slurve." His changeup has also made a lot of progress since being drafted in 2006. Wood still needs to improve his fastball command further. If he can do that, he has the makings of a workhorse (he's 6-foot-5, 240 pounds) mid rotation starter.
6) Michael Montgomery, LHP
Age: 19 | Team: Surprise Royals (R)
2008 Vital Line: 1.69 ERA, 42.2 IP, 34/12 K/BB
The Royals made Montgomery the 36th overall pick in last June's draft, adding to the number of very young but talented pitchers in the low minors. Montgomery signed fairly quickly and has pitched extremely well for the Royals in his short career. He uses a fastball that ranges 89-92, along with a curve and changeup. His changeup is especially a weapon because of the late drop on it, and it induces a ton of ground balls. His 6-foot-5, 180 pound frame gives scouts reason to project his fastball will sit in the low-90's as he matures.
Montgomery is similar to how Daniel Duffy was last year, in that he needs to work out some mechanical things to improve his command. If he continues to improve in that regard as expected, Montgomery projects as a middle-of-the-rotation, ground ball inducing starter.
7) Daniel Gutierrez, RHP
Age: 21 | Team: Burlington Bees (Low A)
2008 Vital Line: 2.70 ERA, 90.0 IP, 104/25 K/BB
Gutierrez joined the organization back as a draft-and-follow in the 33rd round of the 2005 draft. After a pretty bad pro debut with Idaho Falls, things only got worse when he was suspended for part of the 2007 season for violation of team rules. He's bounced back since then and emerged as a very good prospect after a fantastic 2008 season. Gutierrez throws a fastball that sits 92-93, touches 95, along with a very good 12-6 curveball and an occasional changeup.
His changeup still has a ways to go, and that'll determine whether his future is as a starter or reliever. Based on what I've read and heard, he actually barely throws the changeup at all right now. He does, however, know that he needs to improve the pitch as he climbs the ladder.
8) Julio Cesar Pimentel, RHP
Age: 22 | Team: Northwest Arkansas Naturals (AA)
2008 Vital Line: 5.23 ERA, 152.1 IP, 109/49 K/BB
Pimentel joined the Royals back in 2006 in a trade from the Dodgers. At the time, he wasn't much more than a hard thrower with a promising changeup. In 2007 he blossomed when the Royals put him back in the starting rotation. He's taken a step backward this year, but the raw stuff is still there. Pimentel throws a fastball with good sink when it's down in the zone, velocity usually 91-93. He also throws a plus changeup and an above average curve.
With that stuff, he should be able to dominate right? Well, yea, but he's Mr. Inconsistency this year. He also works up in the zone (intentionally or not, I do not know) too much for a guy with good sink on his fastball. Some think Pimentel would be better suited for the bullpen where his fastball especially would play up. I actually do too, but there's no reason to take him out of a starting role yet.
9) Edward Cegarra, RHP
Age: 19 | Team: Burlington Bees (Low A)/Wilmington Blue Rocks (High A)
2008 Vital Line: 3.99 ERA, 160.0 IP, 112/26 K/BB
Cegarra's just the first of a hand full of good pitching prospects from the Royals Dominican Academy. He dominated the Midwest League to open the year before a midseason promotion to Wilmington. He's held his own as one of the youngest players in the league, though certainly hasn't dominated. Cegarra throws a fastball that registers up to 93, and can command it very, very well for a pitcher his age. He can also flip in a slurvy type curve ball for a strike when he's got that pitch working for him as well.
He needs to continue to work on using the lower part of the strike zone, as he's proven very prone to the long ball in the Carolina League. Like most pitchers his age, refinement of a third pitch (changeup) will go a long way for him. He doesn't have the long term upside of some of his peers, but he's got enough stuff and command to be a good pitcher down the line.
10) Tyler Sample, RHP
Age: 19 | Team: Surprise Royals (R)
2008 Vital Line: 9.00 ERA, 27.0 IP, 39/29 K/BB
Sample was thought by most to be a steal in the third round of this past years draft because of his upside. His first go around as a pro hasn't been stellar because of the poor control and command. The first thing you notice about Sample is his size -- he's 6-foot-7 and 240 pounds and he's only 19. He throws a strong fastball, usually 90-92 and topping at 95, but with his size you can project even more. Sample also had one of the best curveballs in the entire draft, which is even more impressive when you consider he was throwing that curveball in the elevation of the mountains in Colorado.
Clearly, he needs to work on his control and command of the strike zone. He's never going to be a control artist that can just pound his spots with ease, but he's going to need to learn to throw strikes. Also, his changeup is still in the early stages of development and he needs to improve it. Sample's upside is very, very good though, and he could be an excellent pitcher if the Royals can fix him up.
Honorable Mentions--
Kelvin Herrera - Similar to Cegarra, better fastball.
Blake Johnson - He's fallen a bit this year, still might be a backend guy.
Sam Runion - Nice rebound in Appalacian League, still very good upside.
Alex Caldera - Good four pitch mix along with good control.
Matthew Mitchell - Strikeout rate plummeted, can improve with better breaking ball.
5 recs |
77 comments
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Awesome stuff.
The pitching depth we have in Low-A and below is ridiculous. GMDM obviously knows how to draft pitching.
by rockchalk on
Aug 30, 2008 3:47 AM EDT
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agreed
very nice post
Alex Gordon in '08
by RoyalJHWKR on
Aug 30, 2008 2:12 PM EDT
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gracias. :-)
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 30, 2008 2:34 PM EDT
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Cortes
I think his stats are pretty sexy. ERA under 4 for 21-year-old in his first season in AA. Just under 9 k/9. That’s pretty sexy. The walks aren’t good, but there’s some statistical sex appeal there.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 30, 2008 3:48 AM EDT
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serious sex appeal
great numbers. you’re right though, if he could lower the walks he’d be an elite prospect.
Alex Gordon in '08
by RoyalJHWKR on
Aug 30, 2008 2:14 PM EDT
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yep
That’s what I meant when I said the stats weren’t “sexy.” Don’t like the walks. If they start to go down soon he’s an elite prospect though.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 30, 2008 2:35 PM EDT
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Yes
Age, age-for-level, health
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 30, 2008 2:35 PM EDT
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and UPSIDE
Cortes is one of two pitchers in the system (along with Melville) that has the upside of a true #1 starter. Whether he reaches that or not is a different story…
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 30, 2008 2:38 PM EDT
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Manuel also said Duffy is a possible front line guy too !!!
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
by kcscoliny on
Aug 30, 2008 2:51 PM EDT
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I like looking at this list much more than the outfielder list
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on
Aug 30, 2008 11:45 AM EDT
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I second that remark.
The Royals have quite a few good arms, some which shold be MLB ready in the next season or two. I hate seeing Sample on this list. An season as bad as the one he produced in 2008 deserves some punishment.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
by James Quinn on
Aug 30, 2008 12:13 PM EDT
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I guess I could see why you don't like Sample on the list
The #10 spot came down between Herrera, Sample, and Mitchell. I chose Sample in the end because I absolutely LOVE his upside. I loved the pick when it was made in June…I’m not going against what I said because of 27 innings in rookie ball.
Sample clearly has control issues now, but at least some of that can be attributed to mechanical deficiencies. Just more throwing in general will improve him as well. Anyway here is a little food for though, even if it might not totally appease you—
HS pitchers taken in 2007 by Royals—
Sam Runion (2nd round): 2007 – 3 BB/9 innings | 2008 – 1.92 BB/9 innings
Daniel Duffy (3rd round): 2007 – 4.10 BB/9 innings | 2008 – 2.76 BB/9 innings
Mitch Hodge (4th round): 2007 – 5.13 BB/9 innings | 2008 – 9.20 BB/9 innings
Matt Mitchell (14th round): 2007 – 4.09 BB/9 innings | 2008 – 1.93 BB/9 innings
Mike Lehmann (20th round): 2007 – 4.67 BB/9 innings | 2008 – 2.50 BB/9 innings
With the exception of one (and I have no idea what went wrong in Hodge’s case), each of these guys improved their control by quite a good margin. Obviously Sample has a ton of work to do, but it’s not completely uncommon too see a big HS kid have poor mechanics and trouble repeating their delivery. I am very eager to see what he does next year.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 30, 2008 2:55 PM EDT
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Yeah, it is encouraging.
Not like I am writing Sample off or anything but jeez! Those numbers make my eyes bleed.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
by James Quinn on
Aug 30, 2008 3:15 PM EDT
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mitch hodge
what is the deal with him? after he got demoted as he done anything to show signs of improvement? i wonder if he is having some injury issues.
Alex Gordon in '08
by RoyalJHWKR on
Aug 30, 2008 11:56 PM EDT
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I really have no idea what the deal is
Disappointing season for sure from Hodge. Not much more to say.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 31, 2008 12:15 AM EDT
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I think he's too Canadian
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by marbotty on
Aug 31, 2008 10:11 AM EDT
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agreed
nobody wants to hear, “projects to be an inning eater in the paul byrd” mold. although thats not a knock on byrd or what a player like him could do to help solidify a team (let alone have the player become a productive big leaguer). but like NY said, its all about the ceiling of the pitcher given his stuff and projectability
Alex Gordon in '08
by RoyalJHWKR on
Aug 30, 2008 11:59 PM EDT
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Cegarra is a little low isn't he?
19 years old and in advanced A, third youngest Royal to ever make it to Wilmington. Also he isnt performing terribly considering his age 4.67 ERA 1.25 Whip in his first run thru, his numbers were ridiculous in Burlington also.
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
by kcscoliny on
Aug 30, 2008 1:25 PM EDT
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Cegarra
Yea you could argue he should be higher, and that’s at least partially a testament to the very nice pitching depth.
Cegarra got by in Low A because he could pretty much put his fastball anywhere he wanted, and that’s plenty enough to dominate in that league. Now that’s not to say he’s just a control guy like Rowdy, he’s got pretty decent stuff. But…1) He’s 6-foot-0, 180 on a good day and doesn’t project to add velocity…2) With that said, he doesn’t have the upside of the other guys on this list. In making a prospect list, you have to account for a lot of things.
But like I said, you could definitely argue him being higher and I would see no problem with it.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 30, 2008 3:02 PM EDT
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I agree
He’s surprisingly well polished for a kid his age and he’s got good control. But his body and stuff just don’t project nearly as well as most of the guys on that list. He could definitely become an effective major league pitcher, but he doesn’t have a high ceiling.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 30, 2008 3:09 PM EDT
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Overall a great list no matter what the order.
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
by kcscoliny on
Aug 30, 2008 1:25 PM EDT
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Nice job...
Melville compared to
Phil Hughes, Mark Prior, Chris Carpenter
I know they’re all good pitchers (or were at one time), but it seems like they all have something else in common… hmmm. Well, it’s probably nothing. We’ll remember this list the rest of our lives.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Aug 30, 2008 1:52 PM EDT
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what list?
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on
Aug 30, 2008 1:53 PM EDT
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The one under present discussion
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Aug 30, 2008 1:58 PM EDT
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what discussion?
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on
Aug 30, 2008 5:38 PM EDT
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Ehehehe.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 30, 2008 3:03 PM EDT
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Not to pick on doublestix
but I’d ease off on the comparisons between clear number ones (prior and carpenter when healthy) and a prospect who was just drafted. Sets us up for disappointment.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Aug 30, 2008 5:44 PM EDT
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True, but this is standard practice for discussing prospects
It’s not a prediction. It’s more of a description of the type of pitcher he is and perhaps of the quality of pitcher his ceiling might be.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 30, 2008 6:35 PM EDT
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^^^ that
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 30, 2008 6:42 PM EDT
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Also, isn't this standard practice for Royals fans?
I.E., being set up for disappointment?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Aug 30, 2008 10:39 PM EDT
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are you suggesting that Chris George
is somehow not the next Tom Glavine?
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by marbotty on
Sep 1, 2008 4:16 PM EDT
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this is where Moore has really shined
looks pretty good so far
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by marbotty on
Aug 30, 2008 2:42 PM EDT
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we'll see if any of them turn into anything....
its likely that some will, but lets not pat him on the back too soon.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on
Aug 31, 2008 1:55 AM EDT
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i don't think anyone will accuse me of patting him on the back
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by marbotty on
Aug 31, 2008 10:12 AM EDT
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lower?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Aug 31, 2008 11:13 PM EDT
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I'm kinda surprised
That no one has mentioned Cortes’ six no-hit innings last night!
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 30, 2008 3:40 PM EDT
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His ERA falls even further
For those who value minor league ERA.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 30, 2008 3:45 PM EDT
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i did on the game thread last night
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
by kcscoliny on
Aug 30, 2008 3:55 PM EDT
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you tried to jinx him, if I remember correctly
The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib
by buddyball on
Aug 30, 2008 5:38 PM EDT
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Nice write up
As I’ve said before, I’m loving the pitching depth.
A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.
by NHZ on
Aug 30, 2008 5:34 PM EDT
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thanks for the complements guys.
:-)
Any suggestions on what position next..? Middle infield? Catcher?
I know we don’t have great depth at those, but these seem to generate some discussion…
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 30, 2008 11:22 PM EDT
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I vote catcher.
But I really don’t care all that much.
by rockchalk on
Aug 30, 2008 11:25 PM EDT
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Middle IF, corner IF, catcher
In whatever order you feel like doing it. Catcher’s going to be a short list, like in every MLB organization.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 30, 2008 11:32 PM EDT
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Catcher might be too depressing
Not that I know much about the system. MIddle infield might be Ok. It’s not as if the Royals have a bunc of All-Stars in the making, but at least there are some interesting guys down there. LIttle Guido, of course, but maybe some guys who can be decent bench players/stopgaps.
One thing that might be a fun departure would be to go through the managers/coaches/instructors in the organization, as I don’t know much about them. Perhaps you have some opinions on them, as well. Or at least some funny stories.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Aug 30, 2008 11:32 PM EDT
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The catching is ok in perspective
Every system is short on genuine catching prospects. They are the most scarce commodity in professional baseball. Some organizations have one good one. Most don’t. The Royals don’t really have many decent catching prospects, but no one does.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 30, 2008 11:42 PM EDT
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yea
I can only think of a couple organizations that have more than one genuinely good catching prospect. The Rangers do, I think the Mariners do, the Giants do. That’s about it off the top of my head.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 31, 2008 12:21 AM EDT
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coaches
I don’t know that much about them either, but I know there’s a couple that have a few interesting stories and backgrounds. Might do that some time, not now though.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 31, 2008 12:18 AM EDT
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Yeah, it doesn't seem like there is much information out there on minor league coaches and instructors
The same goes for all but the top few front office personnel and scouts.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 31, 2008 12:21 AM EDT
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Did Carlos Rosa had shoulder surgery?
Yahoo says:
Injury Note 60-day DL as of Sep 2, 2008 (Right shoulder surgery – out for season)
KC Star says:
Rosa has a strained right elbow
Anyone know for sure?
Purveyor of inane douchebaggery and general snarkiness
by RATW on
Sep 2, 2008 10:47 PM EDT
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Don't know much about surgery
Will he be pitching by spring training?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Sep 2, 2008 10:55 PM EDT
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Zach Peterson?
How about Zach Peterson in Burlington.. I’m an avid Bees fan (have been for years) and this is the most talented pitching class I have EVER seen. It’s obvious to see that this kid has got some serious game. I read that he had 11 consecutive strikeouts last year in Idaho and from what I’ve seen this year, he has serious potential. His numbers seem better than Matthew Mitchell and as good as anyone else in that lineup (other than Duffy who is a STUD in his own right). I’m wondering why no one is picking up on this kid? He was never drafted and has seemed to work his way up and with great numbers… Anyone have any more on Zach?
by wa on
Sep 3, 2008 7:34 PM EDT
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He's a very fringy prospect
He was a 4-year college player who didn’t get drafted. Then he was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Royals at age 22. If a guy isn’t even good enough to get drafted (and is eligible for the draft) and is starting A-ball at age 23, the odds are stacked against him. The stats look good, but he’s very old for his league and he’s been used almost exclusively as a reliever. So, if you want my honest opinion, it is hard to get excited about a 23-year-old relief pitching prospect in low-A ball who was an undrafted 4-year college player.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Sep 3, 2008 8:10 PM EDT
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You're putting to much stock in the draft.
Guys go undrafted all the time. That doesn’t mean they aren’t good. Why waste a pick on a 4 year senior when you could go get a HS kid and maybe he’ll sign. Look at our 50th round.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Sep 3, 2008 8:49 PM EDT
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I'm not putting too much stock in the draft
It is very, very, rare for a guys who were draft eligible but went undrafted to ever make it to the majors. He was eligible for the draft several times and went undrafted. By the time he was out of college, he was already 22. Key development years are gone and he’s not good enough to start in the high minors like someone like Hochevar. So he’s got to work through the minors one step at a time (at best) and always old for his level.
You really can’t say that the fact that he went undrafted means nothing. It means a lot. One of the things it means is that this guy is a fringe prospect at best. He’s more organizational filler than prospect.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Sep 3, 2008 8:59 PM EDT
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I didn't say that.
You are pretty good at putting words in other peoples mouths and calling them fact. But I don’t want to get involved in personal attacks against other peoples character.
It is very rare for guys who don’t get drafted to make it. But it happens. I know kids (two x-teaammates) who signed as free agents after their junior year of college because they made high demands. That doesn’t mean they weren’t a top 10 round type of player. If I’m an organizational person such as GMDM, I don’t waste a high pick or mid rounder on a 4th year senior. I pick a kid that might be a steal if he signs. Knowing that, I probably allow some guys to go undrafted and take a chance on getting them as a free agent.
Yes, guys are more organizational fillers when they go undrafted. We have a few that might be worth something though. Bowden. Peterson. There are some others. Just because someone wasn’t drafted doesn’t mean they won’t be a good prospect. It’s more than likely they won’t be, but don’t write someone off.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Sep 3, 2008 9:24 PM EDT
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It’s more than likely they won’t be, but don’t write someone off.
Is it ’writing someone off" to say that he is a fringe prospect, who is unlikely to make it to the majors and that it is hard to be excited by him? Or is that just recognizing reality?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Sep 3, 2008 9:51 PM EDT
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It was more the organizational filler comment that made me think you’re writing him off. Not the fringe prospect comment.
Unfortanutely, that is the way baseball is. I remember talking to Brad Ziegler after the Phillies released him his second year. He was a four year college guy. He was a mid rounds pick who was projected to go in the top 10 rounds after setting the Cape Cod League record for innings without allowing a walk. Something like 40 I think. Didn’t happen because he was a 4 year. That was the season we drove back from the Cape together and talked baseball almost the entire way. We also stopped in Williamsport to say hi to Ryan Howard and some other buddies of his. It was a great experience for me and really started teaching me the politics of the game.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Sep 3, 2008 11:51 PM EDT
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It was more the organizational filler comment that made me think you’re writing him off. Not the fringe prospect comment.
Well, I think the reality is that he’s closer to filler than a real prospect. But, as I said from the beginning, I think he’s a fringe prospect. He’s not worthless, but he’s not a particularly good prospect. He doesn’t have great stuff and his results have come from leagues where he was old for the league. So there isn’t a lot to be optimistic about.
Unfortanutely, that is the way baseball is.
Baseball is “that way” for a reason. Peterson isn’t a great pitcher who just happens to have been a 4-year college pitcher. He’s a decent pitcher with limited upside. I try to view Royals prospects realistically. Some a real prospects. Most are not. Could Peterson come out of nowhere to defy the odds and do something extremely rare and succeed as a major leaguer even with his pedigree and stuff? Sure. Is it extremely unlikely? Of course.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Sep 4, 2008 12:12 AM EDT
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Peterson
He’s better than your normal undrafted free agent. He’s got a below average fastball (87-90) velocity wise, but the command is really good and he’s got a nice downer curve. Gonna have to keep proving himself at each level. Odds are probably against him, but a guy to root for definitely.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Sep 3, 2008 10:44 PM EDT
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Is he more of the Rowdy Hardy type of pitcher?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Sep 3, 2008 11:52 PM EDT
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sort of
He throws harder and actually has a legit out pitch (curve). But like Rowdy…he won’t get the benefit of the doubt and will have to keep pitching well to move up.
Fun fact about Peterson…he has struck out at least one batter in EVERY appearance he’s made this year. No joke.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Sep 3, 2008 11:58 PM EDT
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That's impressive.
Would you put him in the Bannister mold?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Sep 4, 2008 12:00 AM EDT
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something like that
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Sep 4, 2008 12:28 AM EDT
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He throws harder and actually has a legit out pitch (curve). But like Rowdy…he won’t get the benefit of the doubt and will have to keep pitching well to move up.
So… closer to 2 or 5 Cy Youngs out of Peterson?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Sep 4, 2008 12:03 AM EDT
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well...
By the time Peterson reaches KC, it’ll be renamed the “Rowdy Hardy award.”
No Cy Youngs, but 3 Rowdy Hardys.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Sep 4, 2008 12:27 AM EDT
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I think the Rowdy Hardy award should be the name for the minor league version of the Andy Sisco Award
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Sep 4, 2008 12:45 AM EDT
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As a bullpen guy, that one out pitch that he can get Ks
with is huge. There have been lots of sinker-slider types who can pitch for an inning or two in a bullpen role.
by daveyork on
Sep 4, 2008 6:48 PM EDT
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Zach Peterson is a guy who will have to prove himself at every level
since he was an undrafted free agent. Let’s face it. This type of player will always have to perform in order to move up. He won’t get the benefit of the doubt. Now, Zach has done a great job at Idaho Falls and Burlington over last two years especially with his strikeout numbers – 82Ks in 77IPs. He won’t be considered a prospect like Duffy or Mitchell due to age, etc. If he keeps on getting hitters out he’ll move up but the breaks will have to go his way in order to make it to KC. Peterson is the type of guy to root for but he’ll never be listed on the top prospect listing.
by daveyork on
Sep 3, 2008 11:22 PM EDT
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What you say is true
My roommate my senior year of college signed FA with the Mets. He was a 5 11 LHP who hit 94 at times. I saw it on the gun when we charted. He was assigned to the Appy League. His first year he was a starter/mid relief guy who threw 3-4 innings a game. He had a great year and many people questioned why he didn’t get moved up. He talked to his player development guy and eventually got a call from Omar M himself. Omar said you weren’t a draft pick, we don’t have money invested into you, and even though you deserve to move up a few levels, we’re going to keep you where you are at Rookie ball. I think it was Kingsport.
Yes, he was disappointed but he said, I’ll go out there and prove that I need to move up. He did just that. All-star, post-season all star. Had a sub 1.50 ERA, 5:1 K:BB, and threw the most innings on the team. After the season he was released. No one else took a shot on him.
It’s a sad story. It’s a very tough road for those undrafted guys. Omar basically released him and some other guys becuase they didn’t have money tied up in him. He never got a second chance from any of the other teams. He was only 23 when they released him. He’s not the only guy I played with that the same thing has happened to. It happens all the time.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Sep 3, 2008 11:59 PM EDT
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Wow that is idiotic, I know teams don't want to invest alot of money
in these type of guys but alot of times it doesn’t take alot of money. Look at Aviles he played for pennies and I’m sure alot of these types would too. There are some diamonds in the rough that get missed. Another example is Ziegler he was drafted but treated roughly the same way.
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
by kcscoliny on
Sep 4, 2008 1:32 AM EDT
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There are some diamonds in the rough that get missed.
There are some examples of undrafted free agents working their way onto the radar and even all the way to the big leagues. Usually these are guys who 1) were fringe prospects who fell to injury just as they ran out of college eligibilty, 2) pitched poorly as an amateur due to an undiagnosed injury, 3) were converted to pitcher very late in their amateur career, 4) or were simply overlooked.
I would image it happens more often with position players (Kevin Millar, Brian Barton, Chris Coste, Justin Christian, etc), but there are pitching examples: George Sherrill, Jeremy Accardo, Brian Stokes, Mike Adams, Joe Thatcher, Travis Harper, Charlie Zink, Gene Stechschulte, Cory Lidle, Les Lancaster, etc. were all signed as undrafted free agents.
by RATW on
Sep 4, 2008 2:36 PM EDT
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nice list.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Sep 4, 2008 3:42 PM EDT
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