57-79
by Freneau on Aug 31, 2008 4:01 PM EDT
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PrintFor some reason, this feels like one of the worst losses of the season.
Sure, True Royal Alberto Callaspo bruised, battered and assaulted three pitches for base hits, but we lost season-saving folk hero Mike Aviles to a potential injury (someone say X-rays negative?) and got to see the ball in Kip Wells's hands with the game on the line.
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Lets see
commenting was messed up- bad
Aviles hurt- bad
TPJ on the field- really bad
Wells walking the bases loaded in the 8th- terrible
What made it worse...
…is that when I stopped by Royals Review today I saw that Jerry Rice pic (fantasy football advertisement) for the 1,000,000th time. Time for a new ad…
No worries
It wouldn’t bother me at all if the Royals were playing well, I’m sure…
by cookierojas73 on Aug 31, 2008 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I also forgot
had a chance to use Soria and didn’t- very bad.
Soria is really just collecting dust at this point.
Another reason he needs to go into the rotation
Having the closer sitting in the bullpen waiting for a save situation is a waste.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2008 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
If not the rotation
Hillman has to at least use him. Find a way to get him in. Forget about saves and start using him when we’re in trouble in the 6th, 7th, or 8th.
Or trade him
I say trade him.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2008 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I know VORP isn’t the be-all end-all (having been superseded), but I think most ‘new counting metrics’ work along the same conception — contrary to those who think that a closer is more important to a bad team, I say that those metrics show that a closer used in the “traditional” way is less valuble, since a team that loses more games than it wins is generally going to have less such situations, meaning that the closer has less oppotunities to accumulate VORP/WARP/whatever. Even using him in other tight games as a reliever might be worth (on the very optimistic side) 1 more win a season.
Hypothetical:
If you replaced Soria with another Ram-Ram, yeah, the bullpen would be a little worse. But then replace Davis/Bannister/Duckworh with even, I dunno, a guy a little worse than Meche. That’s worth at LEAST two wins a season, I’d bet, without doing the calculations.
Imagine just trading Soria. Dayton picks up another reliever. I’d say that costs the Royals no more than 2 wins total over the season (speaking in the “accumulated value” terms, in my shaky understnading). But imagine Dayton gets a Matt Kemp (just an example)in return, and starts him in place of Mark Teahen. I’d say that’s at least a 3 win improvement. So that’s “only” 1 more win a season net, but I think that’s extremely conservative. I think they could get more than Kemp, but I think the improvement offensively and defensively from someone like him would be at least 3 wins, probably at least 4 over 2008 Teahen or 2008 Guillen, and the loss of the closer less.
That’s just speaking in “strict” replacement level terms as a baseline, The truth is that the bullpen spot is in general easier to fill, and particularly for the Royals, whereas the Royals have no nothing to fall back on in the outfield. Soria’s value stricly a closer would be something that could eventually be recouped through other means, whereas in the Royals current system, even if Moustakas moves to the OF, he won’t be ready until 2011, and that only widens the advantage.
Does that make any sense? Probably not. Just wanted to type it out in the process of refining my thoughts on this.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2008 11:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Makes sense to me
Also, I think the difference between the player Kemp will develop into and the player Teahen will be in the near future is more than 3 wins. And I think the Royals would get more than Kemp for Soria.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2008 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, it was garbled
I was trying to be conservative in both projection and trade estmiation. I haven’t figured it all quite. I kept going back and forth (and ended up not getting clear as I typed it) between comparing Kemp (or equivalent) vs. Soria, vs. Teahen, vs. Guillen, or whatever. And that was just for next year.
I like Soria (and I know you do to), but it would be very frustrating for me if the Royals endup not resigning Greinke, then trading him last minute (thus not getting the most out of it), and then keeping Soria… and keeping him a closer. I’m not saying I think that’s going to happen, but it’s not inconceivable. Have two good-to-great young pitchers and effectively minimizing their value.
I guess it’s another test for DMGM. Soria’s “better” in public perception, but Zack’s more valuble at the moment assuming Soria isn’t going to start). I assume DMGM knows that.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 1, 2008 12:52 AM EDT up reply actions
it would be very frustrating for me if the Royals endup not resigning Greinke, then trading him last minute (thus not getting the most out of it), and then keeping Soria… and keeping him a closer. I’m not saying I think that’s going to happen, but it’s not inconceivable.
That would be awful. I don’t now what they are going to do with Soria, but if I had to guess right now, I’d say he’ll be a closer for the entirety of his contract. Actually, since that covers many years, I could see a time when for one reason or another the rotation gets really thin and that necessity forces them to try him in the rotation.
But with regard to Greinke, I would speculate that they are going to try to sign him to a long-term deal this offseason (I’m sure they’d like to get it done before his arbitration hearing so that the deal takes care of this year’s salary as well as multiple other years. And if, over the course of the negotiations during the offseason and perhaps the early part of the 2009 season, it becomes clear to them that Greinke won’t agree to a deal that is to the club’s liking, they’ll trade him. If they can trade him with 1 1/2 to 2 years of team control, they’ll get a good haul for him. Moore knows how much Greinke is worth and how desirous other teams are of him. By all accounts, many teams have inquired about him. I don’t think Moore would keep Greinke all the way until midseason 2010 before finally trading him. If he shows that he won’t re-sign, then Moore should sell high on him (both in terms of stats and market value). If that means winter 2008-09, then so be it.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 1, 2008 3:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Bruised
http://www.kansascity.com/sports/royals/story/775947.html
“Aviles left the game and underwent X-rays, which showed nothing more than a bruise — a painful bruise. He could return to the lineup as soon as Tuesday’s series opener against Oakland at Kauffman Stadium.”
Thank goodness
Having the Royals best performer and arguably the biggest bright spot of the season go down with a broken hand/finger for the last month of the season would have been a real kick in the jewels.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2008 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
My jewels have been kicked so many times this season, I'm not sure I'd feel anything.
I am glad I don’t have to worry about watching Pena Jr there for the last month.
by Warden11 on Aug 31, 2008 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, don't go nuts (LOL NUTS GET IT?)
Trey is cautious if nothing else. Look at his treatment of Soria. Maybe he’ll sit Mike just in case all the other AL Central teams all catch the plague and KC makes the playoffs.
Callaspo = good
I really hope we don’t use the money we have on a middle infielder this winter. His defense isn’t great, but it’s not German bad either, and we’re in no position to look for a “perfect” player.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Yeah Callaspo is fine at 2B
In my opinion, his defense is at least major league average for that position. And considering that some teams have really awful defensive 2B’s (Florida, Philly, for two), he might even be above average. And even if he never develops any power, that OBP is very useful.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions
He's fine
But in my half-assed “projection” for next year, I’m wondering whether he’ll be as good a a full year of Grudz. I know he has good OBP numbers on on levels, but from what I’ve seen, he’s shown very little XBH ability so far. I know he hasn’t had a whole lot of ABs in the majors, but, obvious defensive superiority aside, will he be able to hit as well as German? I think a .750 OPS is around AL average for 2Bs, this year, but Callaspo would have to slug better than he ever has to get there…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 31, 2008 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m wondering whether he’ll be as good a a full year of Grudz.
Would he be as good as Grudz has been as a Royal? Probably not. Would he be much worse? No. Would he be as good as we should expect Grudz to be next year? Yes.
But I don’t think it matters if he’s as good as Grudz (past, present or future Grudz). The question is whether he is sufficient, given that the Royals of course have finite resources. If he is sufficient, then they can ignore middle IF and devote their resources elsewhere.
One other thing to consider is that 2009 is going to be a rebuilding year again. It won’t be a contention year unless magic happens. So I think it would be better to see how Callaspo develops when given full-time play, than to go with a more expensive known quantity.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Aug 31, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree that the Royals shouldn't go nuts (recurring theme in this thread! testicles/insanity!) on another MI
But, as usual, it depends on the cost. As I said in the RCI, another MI is a distant 3rd in my FA wish list, and I wouldn’t be disappointed if the Royals didn’t get one.
Having said that, after looking at Callasop, acquiring Furcal or Hudson and adding them to Aviles in the MI would be a bigger upgrade than I thought before looking at Callaspo’s offensive numbers.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 1, 2008 12:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of 2b
I really liked Rany’s idea bout Grudz. Trade him for a player to be named later. Try to get some value out of him.
Every fight is a food fight when you’re a cannibal.
-- Demetri Martin
Would have worked with Anaheim
But as one would expect, David Eckstein is so freaking clutch he got traded just in time, too.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 1, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
What confuses me
is the speculation on the team’s website (I think it was in the latest mailbag) that they will be going after another SP, a power hitting corner OF, and a middle infielder.
What does this say about Aviles and Callaspo?
I would think that a legit DH/1B would be ahead of the middle IF in the acquisition list – or if they think Kaaihue/Shealy can suffice, then perhaps a 2ND corner OF would even be ahead. Teahen may be traded or headed for super utility role, and Guillen could be a trade candidate as well.
I guess what I'm saying is
I’m comfortable going into next season with Aviles/Callaspo DP combo – much more so than I’m comfortable with the corner OF/DH/1B positions.
Agreed
Odds on the FA MI target being Furcal?
I like him, especially if the Royals can’t land Dunn/Burrell or someone like them. And as long as he gets less than $12 million/year.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 2, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not so sure about that
No much depth at those positions, and Jason Smith playing a lot with an injury does not sound so good.
Go Royals!
So you go out and get a good backup cheap
…as opposed to spending a hell of a lot of money on someone like Furcal or Hudson. I like Furcal and Hudson, but the Royals have limited resources. They need to prioritize and get a really big bat, hopefully for a corner OF position.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 3, 2008 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
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