Let’s take a look at some Royals hitters and how their luck and other factors have fared over the last few seasons.
I’m an economist that does forecasting for a living, so all these stats are a labor of love. Plus, I have become completely sold on this 3 true outcomes approach to baseball. Basically, I’m looking at the difference between BABIP and expected BABIP (an avg of a couple different methods to calculate it) to look for luck, which are the unlabled stats given. Also, I’m looking at line drive rate variance to see if expected BABIP is a reasonable estimation. I also like walk/k rates and isolated power (if all this sounds a lot like PECOTA minus its comparables, it should).
Quick note: of course young guys can improve, but this is a historical stat take on things to see how reliable those stats are for us to judge our guys on.
06: 0.037 very lucky .290/.357/.517
07: 0.041 very lucky .285/.353/.410
08: -0.015 unlucky .243/.312/.381
Trends: solid walk rate, high K rate, unpredictable power, below ML avg LD%
Bottom Line: current numbers more likely to be the "real" Teahen, I'm really down on him after looking at those past BABIPs
05: -0.009 neutral .242/.287/.389
06: -0.019 unlucky .245/.306/.396
07: -0.030 very unlucky .222/.308/.429
08: 0.008 neutral .247/.323/.407
Trends: consistent production ind. of luck, good power, OK walk rate, high k rate, low LD%
Bottom Line: League average catcher offensively and very consistently such, Royals can win with that.
07: 0.006 neutral .247/.314/.411
08: 0.007 neutral .252/.343/.406
Trends: increasing walk rate, developing power, high k rate, avg LD%, huge L/R splits
Bottom Line: Gordon's future lies on developing his incredible tools, learning to lay of the slider away from leftties
05: 0.027 lucky .276/.316/.340
06: -0.024 unlucky .238/.321/.292
07: 0.020 lucky .307/.371/.342
08: -0.007 neutral .251/.302/.267
Trends: declining walk rate, very low and improving K rate, no power with some speed based doubles, variable but likely very low LD% with extreme GB tendancies
Bottom Line: 07 looks fluky with both luck and unusually high LD%, if that was his breakout year, he has regressed badly with career lows in several key areas.
05: -0.012 neutral .283/.338/.479
06: -0.047 very unlucky .216/.276/.398
07: 0.034 lucky .290/.353/.460
08: -0.014 neutral .261/.291/.456
Trends: has forgotten how to take a walk as a Royal but was ok before, average K rate, great power, below avg LD%
Bottom Line: If he remembers how to walk at his career rate, legit batter, 91 OPS+ OF/DH until then.
08: 0.067 wow lucky .340/.365/.550
Trends: low walk rate, low K rate, legit power, avg LD%
Botom Line: flashing legit offensive tools, but contining the .340 average is a luck based pipedream. Age 27 rookie season is worrisome on development curve.
Tony Pena Jr.:
06: -0.047 Very unlucky .227/.261/.341
07: -0.006 neutral .267/.284/.356
08: -0.117 God hates TPJ .148/.169/.196
Trends: very low walk rate, high K rate, low and dropping iso power, declining LD%
Bottom Line: I think 07 Pena is closer to the real offensive performance to expect, but does his defense offset what Aviles brings? RR.com has spoken
05: 0.010 neutral .293/.359/.445
06: 0.005 neutral .295/.364/.446
07: -0.014 neutral .260/.351/.372
08: -0.013 neutral .301/.361/.457
Trends: Good walk rate, very low and declining K rate, some power, great LD%
Bottom Line: The real deal! 07 was caused by low LD% unlike rest of career. Very excited about him.
Billy Butler (BAM BAM):
07: 0.014 neutral .292/.347/.447
08: -0.001 neutral .271/.331/.394
Trends: good walk rate, low K rate, developing power, low LD%
Bottom Line: Once he learns to drive the ball like he did in the minors, he becomes an elite hitter.
06: 0.024 lucky .327/.354/.462
07: -0.007 neutral .288/.318/.441
08: -0.027 unlucky .275/.321/.346
Trends: low walk rate, very low K rate, lower than normal iso power - avg other years - doubles based, good LD%
Bottom Line: alot better than some people make him out to be, but below avg power, especially HRs, for a 1B limits his value, future is a ML bench
Bottom Line: needs ABs to see who he is
06: 0.073 extremely lucky .326/.422/.459
07: -0.008 neutral .264/.351/.376
08: -0.024 unlucky .244/.300/.336
Trends: down year in general, historically, good walk rate, lowish K rate, light doubles power, avg LD%
Bottom Line: tough 08, but 07 numbers look repeatable. 350 OBP with low K rate can play, but still looks like super sub at best.
07: -0.077 very unlucky .215/.265/.271
08: -0.019 unlucky .290/.349/.330
Trends: avg walk rate, very low K rate, no power, good LD%
Bottom Line: I expected more power from him, but right now, a German clone in value. Future depends on what position Aviles ends up at.
05: -0.028 unlucky .217/.246/.367
06: 0.007 neutral .263/.287/.440
07: -0.002 neutral .237/.262/.405
08: 0.024 lucky .261/.293/.477
Trends: low walk rate, high K rate, good power, low LD%
Bottom Line: all his value stems from his ability to hit the long ball, which plays OK for a catcher. Good back-up, marginal starter
05: 0.000 neutral .294/.334/.407
06: -0.005 neutral .297/.331/.409
07: 0.027 lucky .302/.346/.426
08: 0.002 neutral .299/.345/.399
Trends: Greek God of consistency, slightly below avg walk rate, low K rate, light power, exceptional LD%
Bottom Line: he has to breakdown at some point right?