A Stunner in the Twin Cities: One of the Worst Royal Lineups of the Decade Falls to the Twins

by royalsreview on Sep 10, 2008 11:30 PM EDT in News Comment 59 comments

I'm tired of watching Ross Gload. I'm tired of watching Jose Guillen.

I have a vague unsatisfied desire to see what Ryan Shealy can do. I would love to see Kila. Personally, I'm bored with Billy Butler, but would nevertheless prefer to see him play.

Instead, we got Gload at first (1-4 with an inspirational double) and Guillen at DH (1-4).The wonderful thing about being a fan of this team is that you get a chance to see all your pet ideas and enthusiasms miserably fail; at different points I've been excited about guys like Esteban German, Mark Teahen, Alberto Callaspo, even Jason Smith for crying out loud. Then you see a lineup like tonight's, and wonder why you ever bothered.

Boring and ineffective: your 2008 Kansas City Royals.

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I think in the marathon season

tonight was when we hit the wall.

It’s definitely gonna be hard to follow these last few weeks, especially if the Chiefs can be anything.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Sep 10, 2008 11:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

i have never been a full Guillen hater

but his presence is starting to annoy me

i blame hillman

by royalsreview on Sep 10, 2008 11:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully

we’ll get some offseason puffpieces about how Hillman learned a lot from this season and plans to change it up next year, Guillen got some sort of therapy or hashed out his issues with Hillman, and how our newest shiny FA will really change things.

Definitely not too good when I’m talking myself into hopefully talking myself into Hillman and Guillen next year.

Maybe we can just hire someone in a non-baseball field that has skills similar to the personnel management to keep the players happy, and just leave the game management up to a computer. I’d rather utilize something that constantly finds us the best odds to win than something that plays out tired and trite moves because it’s how the game has been played for the last century or so.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Sep 11, 2008 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Save some blame for Dayton

He let the wolf into the henhouse.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ooo, I take it back

Hoagy is above replacement level again!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how did that happen?

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Sep 11, 2008 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My favorite ladies

The BABIP fairies!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't really think

that the Chiefs are going to be anything at all. Although my interest in this team, at least for this year, is at an all time low.

by gordonrules on Sep 11, 2008 12:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

above should be under wildthang

by gordonrules on Sep 11, 2008 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think as long as Croyle stays injured

We’ve got a shot

This space intentionally left blank.

by marbotty on Sep 12, 2008 3:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You got excited about Jason Smith?

This season has been dismal, but come on, get a grip, man.

Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!

by cmkeller on Sep 10, 2008 11:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's got some nice pop off the bench

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's a AAA luxury

teams like the royals simply cannot afford!!

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Sep 11, 2008 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Smith + Opportunity+ Luck = Aviles

by royalsreview on Sep 11, 2008 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Serious or joking?

I think you left “Talent” out of the equation.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what do you think aviles will hit next year?

by royalsreview on Sep 11, 2008 1:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's a tough one

I’d say somewhere in the .775-.825 range. By comparison, in 543 MLB at bats, Jason Smith has had a .638 OPS.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

290/320/430

plus league average defense. But as a hitter who relies almost exclusively on hits for getting on base, his line could fluctuate wildly.

by Gopherballs on Sep 11, 2008 2:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It might help his line if they put him higher up against lefties, lower against righties

You know, if Trey believed in the mythical “platoon splits” people keep talking about.

Vs. Lefties: .373/.420/.600/1.020 BABIP: .409

Vs. Righties: .296/.318/.408/.726 BABIP .332

LD% = 20.3. Quick n’ dirty xBABIP = .323. Actual BABIP = .358.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"platoon splits" . . . "player exchange"

Where do you come up with these fantastical concepts?

by Gopherballs on Sep 11, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

flaxseed oil

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think you must have gotten those crazy ideas off that

thing they call the internet

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Sep 11, 2008 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh they have the Internet on Computers now!

by Gopherballs on Sep 11, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i love that line

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by marbotty on Sep 12, 2008 3:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

burn the heretic

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Sep 11, 2008 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

5 years from now, when nearly all of these guys are out of the league, we will look back and laugh.

Or will it be 3 years?

Banny being Banny.

by JobDDT on Sep 11, 2008 5:51 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who are "these guys"?

Are you including Kaaihue, Butler, German, Callaspo and Teahen?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 5:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Out of the league?

Maybe not. But only Butler seems like he’s on the way to being an everyday contributor for this club. I suppose Callaspo has a shot.

Kaaihue strikes me as the kind of guy who will bounce around for a couple of years, get a shot and hit 28 homers for, oh let’s say San Diego which will instantly drive all of us out of our minds. Two years after that, he’ll be out of baseball.

NY, what’s your take on Teahen? I’m guessing you think he’ll have a big league job in 3 to 5 years. What kind of job do you think that’ll be?

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think Kila has more upside than that. Even if he doesn’t turn into a good MLB 1B, he could definitely turn into the kind of guy who plays for 7 years getting anywhere from 100-500 AB’s per season. Of course, there is downside, as well as the upside, but the right-down-the-middle projection doesn’t have him out of baseball within 5 years. And yes, both Butler and Callaspo can/should be good major league players. So yes, the “out of the league in 3-5 years” comment was just knee-jerk, everything-about-the-Royals-sucks venting.

NY, what’s your take on Teahen? I’m guessing you think he’ll have a big league job in 3 to 5 years. What kind of job do you think that’ll be?

This was Teahen’s age 26 season. In five years, he’ll play his age 31 season. He’ll be past his peak, but still in the peak-plateau phase before any significant decline. I think his role for the next several years will be that of a super-utility player who can play all four corner positions. I think only one more year of his career will be with the Royals though.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed on Kila's upside

But he has to get his chance. This spring training will be critical for him if he’s going to have a longish career in the bigs. My more pessimistic take assumes that the Royals view him as organizational filler and it’s a couple of more years before he gets a lot of Major League roster time so he’s spending his peak years on the bench or in the minors.

Agree totally on Teahen- he’s got a lot of value off the bench but the specter of lost potential will haunt him here.

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it is safe to say that they see him as more than organizational filler

This season, plus the call up (and addition to the 40-man roster) means that they (along with everyone else) see him as a prospect now. I don’t think he necessarily deserves or maybe is even ready for regular MLB playing time to start the 2009 season. But I think he’ll be getting significant at bats by the ASB at the latest. He’ll have his shot (I think). Now, I don’t think that they necessarily see him as a top prospect, though. Nor do I think they should.

Agree totally on Teahen- he’s got a lot of value off the bench but the specter of lost potential will haunt him here.

To be clear, my opinion that he only has one more year with the Royals isn’t because he didn’t meet expectations here. It is because his third year of arbitration will make him more expensive for the Royals than his value to the team.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

To be clear, my opinion that he only has one more year with the Royals isn’t because he didn’t meet expectations here. It is because his third year of arbitration will make him more expensive for the Royals than his value to the team.

Understood. I don’t think those factors are mutually exclusive.

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not like in the past

Sept 10, 2005

LF Chip Ambres
3B Joe McEwing
DH Mike Sweeney
RF Emil Brown
SS Angel Berroa
C John Buck
1B Justin Huber
LF Matt Diaz
2B Andres Blanco

P Jimmy Gobble

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 11, 2008 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huber!

I wonder what ever happened to that Matt Diaz guy…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

lineup with Huber automatically disqualifies it as being bad

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by marbotty on Sep 12, 2008 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gload must give good head

this lineup is HORRIBLE…SO IS HILLMAN

by GobbleforCyoung on Sep 11, 2008 8:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Careful, RR,

lest you incur the wrath of NYRoyal.

Your post is quite negative and pessimistic, sir.

(Oh, and it’s sorta accurate too)

by loyal2sdad on Sep 11, 2008 10:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I don't disagree with negativity which is warranted, reasonable and well founded

As opposed to that which is exaggerated, unreasonable and unsupportable.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and emotional

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Sep 11, 2008 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Royals to sign Sarah Palin

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 11, 2008 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Royals to sign Sarah Palin

Palin is gritty

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 11, 2008 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

ewwww, dad

Is “nose to the grindstone” some sort of euphemism?

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It sounds like capitulation

which was bound to happen. I had hopes based on the callups but the big league club is not going to be used as an audition. I think I knew that when I moaned about a lost season a couple of weeks ago.

I guess it will be fall and winter leagues followed by spring training before we can begin to pretend to know how this current batch of high-level organizational players fits into the plan.

I think we need to recognize that it will be at least two years before meaningful position help comes from the minors. Recent actions indicate that the organization doesn’t consider any of the players from Omaha and NW Arkansas as part of the answer.

As much as I complained during the season I can’t completely disagree with their reasoning.

But I sure will be glad when Gload is gone so we can stop beating that horse. His impact on the psyche of Royals fans will long outlast whatever contributions he made on the field.

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 3:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You're kinder than I am.

I posted my take on my own page – unknownroyalsfan.wordpress.com. I’m not as nice, I guess…

by Unknownroyalsfan on Sep 11, 2008 3:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's the stages of grief

I had a very vocal anger stage and now I am in acceptance.

Good post on your blog, well-written.

My point is something that NY or RR said awhile ago. We may hate Gloady and love Shealy but the people who are paid to know baseball look at Shealy and see a AAAA player. They looked at Diaz and Huber and saw the same thing. Time has confirmed that judgment, for better or worse.

Now I’ll still say that you don’t know for sure until you give a guy an extended look what you’re gonna get. RR says that up above when he says that Smith + Opportunity+ Luck = Aviles . . . I might not agree with that specific example but I think the principle is still sound, especially in September on a go-nowhere team that hasn’t been able to capture the fans’ imaginations. Hell, this is the most intense Royals fan community I know of and the attitude is one of resigned disgust.

So I guess I’m saying I see both sides of the discussion. As a baseball outsider I think there is value in giving looks to young players even if management “knows” what they’re going to get- it gives fans something to talk about and there’s the off chance someone might emerge. But I understand why they think they know what they’re going to get.

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just for the record

Matt Diaz had a 114 OPS+ in 2006, and a 124 OPS+ in 2007. He was hurt this year. He has a career 106 OPS+. That’s higher than any current Royal outfielder’s season average, this year or last.

He’s not a star, by a long shot, but time has not shown him to be a “AAAA” guy. Another Baird mistake, more like it.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He’s 30 years old and at the time he was traded he had 6+ years in the minors and no major league production to speak of. He was in his third year of AAA ball when the Royals gave him a look and he produced some. Baird thought he had a wasting asset on his hands and flipped him.

I’m not going to fault him for that. Matt Diaz is a guy who might have a couple of more years and then disappear. The Royals were not going to build around Matt Diaz any more than they are going to build around Shane Costa who has a similar career trajectory.

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Point taken

On Diaz being better than any of the Royals current OFs.

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

More productive, I should say.

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And he's a platoon-only player

I hate it when people look at a part-time player’s stats and say, “look, he’s a X hitter, so he’d hit that well if he played everyday!” He’s an effective part of a platoon. That’s it. Play him everyday and his stats would free fall.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, OK

My point was simply that Diaz wasn’t merely a lucky AAAA washout, not that he was a star. Whether or not the Royals had the information to let him go at the time (right or wrong), they would have been better served to keep him around, unless I’m mistaking what they got for him (I don’ t know).

For the record, in the two good years I cited:

2006:
vs RHP 166 PA 151 AB .358 /.400 /.477 /.877
vs LHP 157 PA, 146 AB .295 /.327 /.473 /.800

2007:
vs RHP 180 PA, 170 AB .318/.350/.406/.756
vs LHP 204 PA, 188 AB .356/.384/.580/.964

So in the first year, he actually hit more against righties than lefties (and hit them better!), and taking both years together he had 15 more PAs against lefties than righties.

So, he’s a platoon player that was probably helped by a bit of BABIP luck in 2006, and a lot in 2007. He probably wasn’t a “real” ace against righties. But there are a lot of players who are considered better and paid a lot more for similar splits and BABIP luck. The 2007 splits are less severe than those of Aviles, Butler, or Guillen’s this year.

But, in any case, I don’t think we’re that far apart. I agree he was a mainly a platoon player. I do think the Royals could have used him instead of Terence Long, and he would have been hood bookend for Emil Brown (a similar player, actually). I wouldn’t take Diaz over any of those three guys (Avilanche, BamBam, or JoGui [at least not in his prime, when he could hit righties — 2005 was the last time he OPSed above .756 against them, I believe]).

So I guess I pretty much wasted a bunch of time splitting hairs. Welcome to Royals Review, everyone!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Splitting Hairs

is how we spend a lot of time. I think it dulls the pain :)

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So in the first year, he actually hit more against righties than lefties (and hit them better!), and taking both years together he had 15 more PAs against lefties than righties.

That is a pretty common profile for a platoon righty. A full-time player usually has about 75% of his AB’s against RHP and 25% against LHP. So, if you are anywhere near 50/50, then you are definitely a platoon player. Platoon righties face a fair number of RHP’s, but many, many fewer than a full-time player.

But, in any case, I don’t think we’re that far apart.

I agree. He’s a useful player who shouldn’t have been just given away. I think your initial reference to Diaz and comparing him to Royals players brought me back to a debate I had earlier this season with someone else who was saying that Diaz would be the Royals best OFer, but he completely ignored the fact that Diaz’s stats are elevated from his platoon usage. Give him 75% of his AB’s against RHP and suddenly he looks like a sub-replacement level scrub.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I Have a Feeling

If Diaz was on this team today we’d all be complaining that he’s part of the problem.

That’s either a slam on no one or a slam on all of us, take your pick.

. . . a weary nation turns to Gil Meche

by vegasroyals on Sep 11, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He'd be making

$400,000, rather than 1.9 million or whatever

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

$1.225 million

And if he had been playing full-time for the Royals (as many Royals fans have wanted), he’d be making more than that.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If he'd kept up those numbers

would be the only way he’d be starting full-time.

And then that would be pretty cheap, relatively speaking.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 11, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And

If he kept up those numbers and was a starter, he’d be a hell of a lot more expensive. Catch-22. The reality is that he’s a pretty good platoon player and that’s all. Baird shouldn’t have let him go and he would be an asset to the Royals, but only in his limited role.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 11, 2008 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs