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Shealy- a viable option next year?

It's interesting to see Shealy making the most of his opportunity. With 2 HRs today and 4 in all since his call-up less than 2 weeks ago, he has already surpassed Gload's season total (which only serves to irritate me more, as we see the actual proof that we utterly wasted a season's worth of ABs starting Gload at first base this season). Shealy is also hitting .370 and slugging .815.

While I'm sure we're all in agreement that this hot stretch won't last forever, it does give me pause re. our first base situation for next year and makes me wonder if it does the same thing for Dayton Moore. Is Shealy still regarded by the Royals as a prospect and can he possibly help the big club next year? If Moore is not impressed yet, what would it take for him to reconsider Shealy for next year's KC roster? I'm thinking he'd have to continue tearing the cover off the ball for the balance of the season, then basically do the same in Spring Training to even have a shot. Even then, there is still ol' Ross to compete with, plus Butler, and Ka'aihue...thoughts?

 

 

 

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Shealy and Gload are similar hitters

Gload underperformed this year, but they are both likely roughly replacement level first basemen going forward. Given their ages and the fact that Shealy hasn’t had much of a shot in the majors (particularly while healthy), I’d rather go with Shealy and have Kila come up to the majors at some point next season.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 14, 2008 5:56 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They may be similar players

But just the fact that Shealy has outhomered Gload’s season HR totals in about 12 days is enough to convince me that Shealy deserves to be ahead on the depth chart going into next year. Gload should be looked at strictly as a bench player (a role he could probably fill well on many teams).

This team has to leave no stone unturned in an effort to add power. Shealy is no Ryan Howard but I’m fairly confident that he at least can hit like a first baseman should for stretches of a season.

by cookierojas73 on Sep 14, 2008 9:18 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

.250/.350/.450

Would be a massive upgrade, and the defense would be just as good.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 15, 2008 12:25 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Didn't Shealy only go to Omaha because

MLB in its infinite wisdom, decided the Royals and Olivo should pay for a 2007 brawl involving the Marlins, so Tupman had to be on the roster the first week of the season. I think otherwise, Shealy had earned a spot on the team.

Remember, Shealy played well for the Royals in 2006 and last year was injured.

by jbrocato on Sep 14, 2008 7:11 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Shealy wasn't in Omaha for the first 5 months of the season because of Olivo's 5-game suspension

It was because with a 4-man bench, the really wasn’t room for 3 1b/dh’s on the team.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 14, 2008 7:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We always need

players of Kip Wellsian caliber.

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Sep 14, 2008 8:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe its just me

But I really like looking at this picture.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 16, 2008 4:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I would suggest you look at the stats of these two players outside of 2008

Gload raked in the minors. His numbers in the minors were very similar to Shealy’s and Gload did this in the IL (not a hitter’s league), not the PCL (an extreme hitter’s league). So what Shealy did in the PCL at age 29 in his 4th year at that level isn’t very impressive. Gload also sucks, but this season was way below his career averages. And he’s been extremely BABIP unlucky. All this means we should expect Gload to be better next year and for Shealy to not be particularly good. So yes, if you actually look at their stats over their minor and major league careers, they are very similar.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 15, 2008 12:18 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Popups And Weak

Grounders to the right side are hell on BABIP.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 15, 2008 12:31 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

His line drive % is actually up this year

19% last year, 22.2% this year. And that is better than his career average of 21.5. With that kind of LD, you should expect a BABIP of about .342. Instead, his BABIP has been .296. That is one hell of a lot of bad luck. I’m not saying Gload is good. I’m not saying he should be a Royal next year. But one should expect him to be better next year and one shouldn’t expect Shealy to be much better next year than Gload will be.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 15, 2008 12:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Damn My Lying

Eyes and ears.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 15, 2008 12:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One has to wonder, I think

whether the BABIP in this particular case might be connected to a decline in footspeed. I wouldn’t bet on Gload to better next year, either, because I very much doubt he can repeat a LD% this high.

Could Shealy be better? Yeah, I think so. But he’s just another below average 1B I think. More power than Gload but not much else to recommend him.

A mind without purpose will walk in dark places.

by NHZ on Sep 15, 2008 2:24 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

whether the BABIP in this particular case might be connected to a decline in footspeed

Maybe, but he sure doesn’t look any slower.

. I wouldn’t bet on Gload to better next year, either, because I very much doubt he can repeat a LD% this high.

He doesn’t need to keep his LD% this high to be better next year. I think next year he should be in the neighborhood of his career averages. There just is no evidence that his skills have dropped off significantly. His peripherals are very much like the rest of his career. He is what he is. And what he is is a lot better than his ba/obp/slg this year. But it is still not good enough to be a starting 1B.

Could Shealy be better? Yeah, I think so. But he’s just another below average 1B I think. More power than Gload but not much else to recommend him.

Yeah, they both pretty much stink. It still remains to be seen if Shealy has more power in the majors than Gload. Shealy’s career major league SLG is .411 (before today’s HR’s, but that won’t change it a great deal). Gload’s is .408. Shealy has a higher Isolated Power, but doesn’t make enough contact to give him a better SLG than Gload. The fact that Shealy had a .500 SLG this year is really unimpressive. As Christina Kahrl at BP put it recently:

Shealy did manage to hit .283/.376/.503 in Omaha, but he’s 29 and it was his fourth season in the PCL; that performance translates to a pretty crummy .244 EqA, or still far from adequate for a first baseman, and still very much like the player they acquired and then had to get familiar with the last couple of seasons.

I prefer Shealy over Gload because Gload is older and maybe Shealy’s better than his career MLB numbers show (it’s possible), whereas we know Gload is low-700’s OPS guy. I like the idea of Shealy holding down the position until they are ready to hand it over to Kila. Perhaps a Shealy/Kila platoon or, if necessary for a while, a Shealy/Gload platoon. But I think everyone should realize that Gload isn’t really a .650 OPS guy going forward. Not should Shealy be expected to be a .750 OPS guy. I think they are both likely .725 guys, who will do better than that in a platoon.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 15, 2008 2:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think he needs a platoon...

I don’t think he has a platoon split at all. Might actually hit RHP better.

I like Shealy. Loved the trade at the time. I still think he can do say .275/.335/.470 or so. Great? No. Better than G-Load? Yes. Good bat hitting #6? Ya, especially for us.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Sep 15, 2008 4:12 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I sure hope he can be a .775-.800 OPS guy

I just don’t see any sign of it. He hasn’t done that in the majors and his minor league MLE’s aren’t that high either. I don’t know why he’d suddenly blossom into a different player at age 30.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 15, 2008 4:15 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

His AAA are very good from June-August 2008

His ops was a very steady .970 or so, maybe he did figure something out?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Sep 15, 2008 11:00 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That really isn't very impressive for a 29-year-old in the PCL in his 4th year at that level

It’s pretty rare for a guy to figure something out at age 29.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 15, 2008 2:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

219/303/392

Per BP, Shealy’s translated 2008 line (adjusted for age, league, and park).

by Gopherballs on Sep 15, 2008 4:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not to mention the fun with small sample size

If he can keep up his homerun pace, he will hit about 75 HR in a season.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Sep 15, 2008 3:58 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

See?

He is guaranteed to hit 75 home runs, which is more than any other player we have. Shealy is the savior of the Royals.

Pecota, watch over us.

by castille on Sep 17, 2008 10:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good article on royals authority about tempering our expectations on Shealy

The pitchers he currently are battering probably are not guys he would see during a normal regular season. Lets see what he does against the Twins and ChiSox, both teams playing for something currently. As far as a platoon option I don’t really know how viable that would be with Billy on the roster and Shealy’s bad vs. LHP numbers. I’m sure it is just an anomoly that his v. LHP numbers are bad but still doesn’t make a good excuse for a GM/coach to use him in that role.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Sep 15, 2008 11:48 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Shhhh... quiet about the pitchers

JoGui’s upping his trade value off the same guys!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 15, 2008 11:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Absolutely

I think Shealy should be given the starting first baseman’s job out of spring training. If he fails, Kila is available in Omaha, or if Kila is struggling, you can play Teahen at 1B and begin thinking about acquiring a long-term option next winter.

I see no reason to keep Ross and his grit around. We must let him go. And if it is true love, he will come back to us someday.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 15, 2008 1:58 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, Pilgrim, that causes me great annoyance and displeasure

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Sep 15, 2008 3:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

are there players at A or AA who could develop into major league contributors at 1B?

keep Shealy for next year, with a Kila call-up and in 2010 have one of them be backup to the new young stud?

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Sep 15, 2008 5:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hosmer is about it

ETA 2012-13

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 15, 2008 5:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Eric Hosmer will be in A ball next year

and Gordon could be a 1b if Moose moved him over.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Sep 15, 2008 5:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if we can keep him...

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Sep 15, 2008 5:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I asked my Magic 8-Ball

And it said “Signs point to yes”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 15, 2008 5:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

excellent prognostication tool

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Sep 15, 2008 5:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Am I missing something

Butler looks decent at 1b. I’ve watched some bad 1b…Adam Dunn….and Billy looks more than adequate for the position

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Sep 15, 2008 5:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hillman thinks Gload

Who is in the bottom 20 in the leauge in fielding, should play there in front of him. Maybe he drops everything thrown to him in practice? Maybe he dropped a dripping baconator in his lap? I don’t know, but I would predict more Gload and not Bulter if someone else is not on the roster playing first, therefore, it can’t be Bulter. Why would the royals eat the 2.9 million if they need a backup first baseman? Then Hillman will start Gload, and we would have to fire Hillman to get rid of Gload at first base, and my rant is over now.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Sep 15, 2008 5:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

I feel that we should be using Bam Bam at first next year with Kila being a possible callup if needed. I really think Butler would do better playing everyday on the field. That would free GMDM to pursue a middle infielder and power corner outfielder (and possibly move JoGui to DH). I feel that at 29 Shealy’s potential would have emerged by now. He is increasing his trade value with his performance this month and I think that we would be best served to see what we could get for him.

-You play to win the game - Herm Edwards

by truebluetradition on Sep 15, 2008 5:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FWIW

Every analyst I’ve read says he might be an acceptable 1B, but he really profiles as a DH. Sure Butler can 1B if necessary. But it would be much better for him to DH with a real 1B who has pretty good range and a soft glove.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 15, 2008 6:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

imo

we’re not going to solve all of the royals woes in one off-season, I think it would be most prudent to play Shealy, let him sink or swim. If he sinks, we try Kila and/or go for a 1B next offseason.

I hereby resign from this post.

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Sep 15, 2008 10:25 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm wondering

why there isn’t more excitement around Kila. The guy’s 6’3", 230, and probably the most patient hitter we’ve had in the system since…I can’t even remember when. When was the last time a power hitter had more walks than K’s? Or as many walks as K’s at the AAA level. The guy’s OBP is absolutely absurd. Absurd! And he’s too old of a prospect to be hanging around as backup insurance just in case Shealy doesn’t work out. I mean, what if Shealy bats .270 with 18 or 19 homers and, say, 80 RBI’s? That kind of performance won’t be bad enough to bench him outright in favor of Kila. I’m not saying Kila is a sure thing or anything, no prospect ever is, but we might be coddling Shealy’s .270 18 80 line when we have a .270 30 100 guy hanging out on the bench. If Kila’s the real deal he’s gonna need a full year of seasoning before he busts out (his 26th year would be next year, his ‘seasoning’ year). Then, at 27, he hits 30 homers, and will be the same age as Gordon.

I like Shealy, really hope he stays in the pros for a long time, but sitting Kila next year, or even making him play in Omaha at age 26 after the ridiculous (let me say it again, ridiculous!) season he just had makes no sense to me at all.

I follow the Tao of Steve (Balboni)

by jackie ballgame on Sep 15, 2008 11:13 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

why there isn’t more excitement around Kila

There is excitement, but it is somewhat limited because we still don’t know what this guy is. He came out of nowhere to have this great season. He had a bunch of poor minor league seasons (outside of High Desert) where he didn’t look like a good prospect to anyone and then exploded. Is this for real? We don’t know. If it is for real, how well will that translate to the majors? Scouts and prospect analysts have a wide variety of opinions about him and his skill set. And the stat guys don’t quite know what to make of one minor league season which is so different from the rest of his minor league seasons.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 15, 2008 11:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That doesn't mean we dump Shealy

The tigers have Marcus Thames coming off the bench. The Red Sox have, I don’t know, Eric Hinske. Is Chris Shelton still getting at bats somewhere? Cody Ross comes off the bench in Florida. Gomes comes off the bench in Tampa. Lots of good teams have Ryan Shealy’s as bench players.

I follow the Tao of Steve (Balboni)

by jackie ballgame on Sep 15, 2008 11:19 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thames is a part-timer, but more than a bench player

Hinske has actually been starting against righties all year for the D-Rays. He’s OPSing almost .900.

If Shealy hits anything like either of them (he won’t), the Royals would be thrilled, and should be starting him (at least next year), not putting him on the bench.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 15, 2008 11:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Shealy could serve a valuable role on the Royals

by coming off the bench to be a power threat. When KC needs one swing of the bat late in the game, they look down the bench and see Joey G., German, TPJ, the second catcher and Ross Gload. WOW!

by daveyork on Sep 16, 2008 10:31 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And Mitch Maier!

King of the bloop single!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 16, 2008 11:14 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

MITCH

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 16, 2008 11:37 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No they don't.

They see Billy Butler or Miguel Olivo or whatever person who can actually reach the warning track Trey decided to start one or more of the above mentioned tools in place of!

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Sep 16, 2008 11:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

crap

The PCL is a hitters league. Agreed. But the PCL does not make 75 OPS+ players 120 OPS+ players.

As someone who actually goes to PCL games, and doesn’t just read the stats, you know some player skills have nothing to do with their league. Power and speed for example. It doesn’t matter who is pitching, if you don’t have the bat speed to hit it out, it won’t go out. Just ask our friend Ross, i have a sweet soul patch, Gload. If you are really fast, you will steal bases. If you are slow, you won’t. Yes, put a AAA guy in the bigs he will probably K more, but they won’t forget how to drive the ball if that has been their game all along.

What I’m trying to say is that not all stats vary at the same rate when switching levels.

For the record Kila and Shealy both hit absolute bombs when I saw them play the last game of Omaha’s season. Shealy is absolutely on a tear.

Shealy is a better hitter than Gload, and has a bigger upside. Kila who knows, but I’d much rather have him play than Gload. We are 20 games back. Fill gapping Gload does the organization no good. Kila getting ABs does.

O ya, don’t tender Marky T or John Buck.

You said the same thing with Aviles when I said replace TPJ with him.

Do I need to repost the ignoring Omaha post?

At least Wally Joyner's not on the team....

by tcon125 on Sep 16, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Would you like me to list a few dozen guys who raked in the PCL and hit like crap in the majors?

It is very common. History counts.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 16, 2008 2:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

enlighten us.

Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.

by 306008 on Sep 17, 2008 9:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'll start with Joe Vitiello

In his late 20’s, he hit extremely well in the PCL year after year
age 28 .847
age 29 .986
age 30 .995

And never hit particularly well in the majors. Career MLB stats: .248/.335/.414.

Do I really need to do this? Is there any doubt that the list of AAAA players who had great stats in the PCL and couldn’t hit in the majors is huge?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 17, 2008 10:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So... the best one you could find

still had an average that was alomst 100 points higher then Gload. So.. the odds that Shealy is not an improvement over Gload is about 1%? Yet they are still basically the same batter? Not helping your argument.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Sep 17, 2008 11:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, of course that's not the best one I could find

Good lord, are you really debating whether there are a lot of guys who have raked in the PCL and not hit in the majors? And are you also arguing that the only stats about Gload that are telling is his 2008 stats? Every other year of his career is irrelevant, right? Did you know that Gload’s career stats are .286/.327/.408. Wait, I forgot, nothing outside of 2008 counts.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 17, 2008 11:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, just trying to get you to admit

Gload and Shealy going forward, are not going to have the same numbers.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Sep 18, 2008 12:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What would lead you to think that?

Their minor league careers? Their major league careers? Neither of them points to Shealy hitting considerably better than Gload going forward. Have you actually looked at their stats beyond 2008? I think you might find it edifying. Please stop putting so much weight on a few months of Shealy stats this year.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 12:23 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Here's another guy who hit well in AAA

25 .846
26 .855
27 .876
29 1.073

Think this guy would end up hitting better than Gload in the majors?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 12:32 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, he would tend to hit better in the majors, not a certainty of course.

Ok, looking a Gload, and Shealy, for them to be about the same hitters, they would have to have simular numbers going forward.
The only way Gload catches Shealy in ops is for him to hit about 100 points higher in BA, which I grant you is possible. But even if he does, they are still not the same type of batter, one has 100 points higher average and better OBP, and one has a much better slugging percentage. They would hit at different spots in the order, and do different things for thier team. So, even if you win your argument on OPS, you still LOSE the arguement that they are basically the same hitters, just admit you are WRONG.

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Sep 18, 2008 12:53 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So, even if you win your argument on OPS, you still LOSE the arguement that they are basically the same hitters,

I didn’t say they are quite the same type of hitter. I’m saying they are roughly the same quality of hitter. And we really don’t know what kind of hitter Shealy will be in the majors, as we have so little data. Is he going to be a big power guy? One good month doesn’t tell us this. But their minor and major league track records show them to be very similar in terms of overall production (OPS).

Yes, he would tend to hit better in the majors, not a certainty of course.

Those are Gload’s AAA numbers. Get my point? Good AAA numbers overall with a big “breakout” at age 29. See how meaningful that was for Gload?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 12:59 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

ok, looked at Gloads/Shealy's numbers

Gload was hitting a hr in minors about 1/28 at bats
Shealy was hitting a hr in minors about 1/16 at bats

Glad hitting hr in majors 1/56 at bats
Shealy hitting hr in majors 1/28 at bats

on base roughly equivalent (more hits Gload, more walks Shealy, so slight advantage for Gload, because singles are better then walks in production)

ok, so Shealy, even if he does not improve, hits 18 hr in a season (this seems low because of what he is doing in majors this year), Gload hits 9 (500 ab) seems reasonable?

that gives Shealy 9 more homers or 27 more total bases. Gload would have to hit 27 more doubles (approx., may make up a few bases in quality singles vs Shealy’s walks) in order to catch up to Shealy, not very resonable, so Shealy should have the edge in ops. (Shealy is younger, so if you ajust for age (and trend for 2008) its greater then 27 bases)

other things that effect quality

Fielding – Gload is in the bottom 20 in the AL in fielding, don’t see Shealy being much worse?

Money – Shealy right now cheaper then Gload (correct me if I am wrong?)

With where they would hit in Batting order – Shealy gets more counting stats

Shealy has twice the instant offense

Age – Shealy is younger, so has more quality

Conclusions

They don’t appear to be the same quality going forward. Twenty seven extra bases should be enough to at least give a significant edge to Shealy, and the gap has a better chance of widening. (age, trend lines)

(although you said similar which means that they are approximately the same (e.g. clone), so I change this to quality since that is what you meant by similar, which changes my arguments)

Also, I have a degree in Math, so don’t be so condensending, and I tested in the top 5% in probability analysis on my post test)

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Sep 18, 2008 2:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Your certitude about Shealy's extra 27 bases is misplaced

It is hard to project Shealy in the majors because we have so little major league data on him. If you have a degree in math and tested in the top 5% in probability analysis on your post test, then I’m sure you’re familiar with the concept of small sample sizes and the significance thereof. So, in addition to that small sample of MLB stats, we have to also look at MiLB stats. Combining the two, you see a roughly similar player. Could Shealy be better than Gload next year? Definitely. Much better? Probably not. Is he worth a shot? Definitely. Even though money is a non-issue (Shealy will be getting paid less, but Gload’s 2009 contract is guaranteed, so it is a sunk cost), I have long said that I’d go with Shealy because he’s younger and less of a known quantity. He could surprise. But my point, yet again, is that we shouldn’t expect much from Shealy. We shouldn’t expect him to be much (if any) better than Gload’s career numbers.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 1:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Shealy

has a tattoo on his right arm that says “20 home runs”

and on the left it says “if I get traded back to Colorado.”

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 18, 2008 1:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And below “Colorado” it says “Springs”

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 1:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cleveland And KC=

Denver/Colorado Springs?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 19, 2008 1:20 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're making the wrong argument.

This is Gload’s worst MLB season, by far. He’s obviously swan-diving into his decline phase, which means that for the next 2-3 years, Shealy is clearly the superior player (IMO).

Shealy is essentially the same player Gload was LAST year (but with more power), is what this boils down to.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Sep 18, 2008 11:36 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The problem is that it is not clear

I’d go with Shealy for the reasons listed above, but it is anything but clear that Shealy would be better than Gload next year. I think it quite likely that most of the projection systems will have them both expected to have an OPS in the low-700’s next year. And we still don’t know how much power Shealy will show in the majors. He showed only decent power in the PCL at age 28/29. In his spectacular September in the majors, he’s mostly getting HR’s off of AAA pitchers. Will he be able to manage a SLG over .410 next year? We really don’t know. His minor league track record does not inspire confidence.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 1:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not sure

how this argument got started but to me they aren’tt the same “quality” of hitter. I don’t need someone with a calculator and #s from years ago tell me that Shealy is a better hitter than Gload. Is this Gload’s worst year in his career….i guess, but i also don’t care. He should never be an everyday player…..that is my eyes telling me this. He is just not a good hitter. His line drive % is up…..what the hell is that and who cares? Who cares about his balls in play average? Lord people. Get off the #s and go with your eyes. Is Shealy the savior at 1B…highly unlikely, but i would rather trot him out there everyday than Ross Gload.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 1:02 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BABIP and LD% are important for determining whether a players BA is due to luck or lack thereof

BA, of course, is part of SLG and OBP, more important stats.

I guess those things aren’t that important.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 18, 2008 1:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Stop looking at #'s and rely on your own amateur scouting!

Numbers don’t mean shit!

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 1:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know what

they are and no i don’t think those things are important. I go by eyes not LD%…..give me a break.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 1:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, stats are stoopid

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 1:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah

Everyone knows that the sun rotates around the (flat) earth! Stupidheads.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Sep 18, 2008 2:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LD%

is that one of Keith Law’s stats.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 1:20 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I dunno

It means “line drive percentage.” I know what percentage means, but I’m pretty sure a “line drive” is just something some nerd made up, not a baseball term. And you DEFINITELY don’t detect a “line drive” with your eyes.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 18, 2008 1:21 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah i

can’t tell if a ball hit is a line drive or not….to each his own. Not going to argue all day about it.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 1:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, it is not "one of Keith Law's stats"

It is one of a number of batted ball stats that are very meaningful in a variety of ways. It is hard to understand if something like this is important when one doesn’t know what it is, what it means and what its implications are.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 1:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sorry guys...

I am just not one of those guys that believe in stats that didn’t even exist years ago. I mean geez….how did we know if Babe Ruth was lucky or not without LD% and BABIP….lmao.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 1:21 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah, any new stats that are developed are meaningless

Progress in baseball stats or any field of study is stupid. If we didn’t know about it 80 years ago, then it isn’t worth knowing now.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 1:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What, are you actually serious?

It’s not a “new stat,” it’s just measuring something which has always happened which nobody bothered measuring before.

By your logic, in 1921 “caught stealing” was just some stupid stat which some nerd made up in his mom’s basement. For that matter, once upon a time “RBI” was some cockamamie thing a geek came up with to try and prove his favorite player was awesome. Give. Me. A. Break.

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Sep 18, 2008 2:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Baseball knowledge peaked in 1934

Everything since then is just meaningless mental masturbation. Progress does not exist. It is a myth.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 2:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Branch Rickey Destroyed the National Pastime

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 18, 2008 3:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's fine....

you measure it all day….i could care less about it.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 3:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not understanding a stat makes it easy to not care about it

I don’t understand non-Euclidian geometry, so I could care less about it. It doesn’t make it meaningless.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 3:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I never said i

didn’t understand it but you keep thinking that. I just don’t happen to agree with it as being a useful tool to being able to tell a player can hit or he can’t. But thanks for your concern.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

All of

the stat geeks are on me today…i love it.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:16 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It is clear

…that you are not at all familiar with the significance of BABIP and how LD% relates to. As well as the meaning of the difference between BABIP and xBABIP. That’s why you don’t think LD% is important. Because you don’t know how or why it is important. Ignorance is bliss. But hey, your amateur scouting eye tells you all you need to know.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 4:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK...

thanks for clearing that up for me wise one.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're welcome, as always

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 4:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What am

i going to do with myself if i don’t understand BABIP or xBABIP and how LD% relates to it…….OMG…..WTF am i going to do…..LMAO.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What an interesting conversation

You: I don’t think LD% is important.
Me: If you don’t understand its significance, then of course you wouldn’t understand why it is important.
You: I do understand it.
Me: (I show how you don’t understand its significance)
You: I don’t care to know its significance.

Again, when you don’t understand it, it is no surprise that you don’t value it. The fact that you turn your back on any stats, metrics or statistical analysis that has been done in the last 20 years merely because it is new makes me embarrassed for you.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 4:43 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're unbelievable.

A player who hits a higher percentage of line drives is OBVIOUSLY squaring on the ball more effectively than a player who hits a lower percentage. This is something which should be mind-numbingly apparent to you simply by watching the game with your “eyes.” You hit line drives by striking the ball squarely; if you hit more ground balls than average, it means you consistently swing too high, more fly balls means you’re swinging too low.

Now that I’ve demonstrated that LD% actually DOES prove who hits the ball better, what’s your next Flat Earth Society trick going to be? “I don’t believe in strikeouts, I just care about W-L records?”

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Sep 18, 2008 4:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

TY

i appreciate the compliment……please go tell more of your friends to come on here and gang up on me…..call Billy Beane for me ok.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess you didn't grasp that "unbelievable"

was a euphemism for “retarded.”

Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.

by jonfmorse on Sep 18, 2008 4:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Oh ok....

thanks anyway Mr. Webster. Is that on your word a day calendar.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There is no shame in being ignorant

But willfull, prideful, intentional ignorance is really sad.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 4:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

This

is the highest # of compliments i have received in one day. Thanks for the honors stat boys.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're welcome

Are we done with this anti-intellectual nonsense now?

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 4:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Look i know all the stats

and what they mean….i am just not a big believer in them……to each his own gentlemen. Makes no matter to me…..just a big Royals fan hoping we can get better soon.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, you showed very well that you don't "know all the stats and what they mean"
i going to do with myself if i don’t understand BABIP or xBABIP and how LD% relates to it…….OMG…..WTF am i going to do…..LMAO.

I realize that the mock reaction was sarcasm. But the statement was not. If you knew the relationship between LD% and BABIP and the significance of BABIP, you’d recognize the importance of LD%.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 5:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Then

will i be able to tell that Ross Gload sucks…..no i already know that. Stop with that….you aren’t going to change my mind. Lord have mercy. Can’t we just agree to disagree are you above that. Go Royals!

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 5:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Very

important…no doubt. I mean once again how did we know if the players in the day were any good without this vital geek driven statistic.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 5:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They noticed that the good ones hit lots of line drives!

(smiley [but serious]-face)

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 18, 2008 5:37 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So should

we trade Greinke??? What do you think?

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 5:39 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Should we?

Anyone should be traded if one can get more than they’re worth!

How’s that for a spineless answer.

I hope they don’t have to trade Greinke. I hope that they resign him for a good deal as has been discussed. If he won’t do that, the Royals need to trade him. Which would suck, but small market teams can’t afford sentimentality.

And, as has been pointed out, a good contract might make him even more attractive, so if there is a deal that can’t be refused (i.e., it’s make the deal or DMGM ends up with a horses head in his bed), the Royals should make it.

(Incidentally, I think that if they aren’t going to move Soria to the rotation, they should be exploring deals for him right now — people still overvalue closers, he’s one of the best in the game, and he’s got a good contract. That might clear up KC’s corner outfield problems real quick.)

But Greinke looks like he will be an ace for years to come. I can’t believe the dude hasn’t had any injuries — he’s been pitching professionally for 6 years. WOw. That’s worth a lot.

Yes, I realize that I will be lynched tomorrow morning when the Royals’ site says he’s going to see Dr. Andrews.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 18, 2008 5:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

We're not talking about recognizing the great players

Yeah, it is pretty clear who the great players are. We’re talking about determining how good a plyaer is. I Jeter great, very good or just good? Is Gload below average, bad, very bad or awful? Should we expect Shealy to be better than Gload going forward? To answer all of those questions with accuracy, just looking at guys at saying “he’s good” or “he’s bad” isn’t quite enough. Detailed stats help with that. Amateur scouting gut feeling isn’t worth much.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 18, 2008 10:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The More Esoteric

Stats are only as good as the correlation to actual performance they portray. Anomalies are present in any statistical analysis, but when you throw out the high and low performers, an expected result must correlate to reality to be meaningful. That, to me, is the test of metrics. I haven’t studied it at all, but from what I read it seems to hold water.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 19, 2008 1:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You guys

have fun with your calculators for the rest of the day…..i am out. Thanks for the banter.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Which Billy Beane?

I mean, they’re both dreamy.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 18, 2008 5:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If you say so....

like i said….to each his own. You believe in LD% and i won’t. No worries.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 1:44 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What is

Ross Gloads bloop/slow groundball %??

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 4:16 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I dunno -- probably the best of the team

If you multiply it by his GRIT Factor, though the calculator says 55378008

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 18, 2008 5:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, in this case

The highest number is a bad thing, so I guess that proves that Ross Gload really does suck

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Sep 18, 2008 7:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Is that

TI-81 scientific calculator….those are pretty reliable.

by powder blues on Sep 18, 2008 5:40 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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