Jason Taylor - Prospect Review
by RoyalJHWKR on Sep 16, 2008 12:55 PM EDT
74 comments
Born: 1/14/88
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Position: 3B/1B
Royals Corner had this to say in its 2006 top prospects list. "Ask any two random scouts about what they think of Jason Taylor, and you’ll likely get two completely different assessments".
Taylor has been in the back of my mind ever since he was selected in the 2nd round in 2006. Like Jeff Bianchi, Taylor is someone with a lot of promise who has faced various problems. Bianchi faced injuries and Taylor with god only knows. But after his outstanding year in Low A ball, Taylor has returned to top prospect status.
As we all know, Taylor missed 2007. That was bad. Really bad. That was definitely a worse case scenario for a guy you take in the second round. Especially considering that he wasn't in the BA Top 200 going into the draft. By the way, can someone PLEASE tell me why he missed 2007? I've seen various rumors (drugs, work ethic, insubordination) but nothing conclusive.
Nonetheless, Taylor finally got the opportunity to play full season baseball on the banks of the MIssissippi River in idyllic Burlington, Iowa.* He did not disappoint. Taylor brought his bat and keen eye in posting a 242/372/418 for a 790 OPS. League OPS was 693. Taylor also posted a BABIP of 272 so it seems plausible that with better luck he would have likely broken the 800 OPS threshold.
*Taylor made his professional debut in 2006 in the AZL. He did mostly good but not great. He showed good on base skills but no pop in posting a 258/374/325 for an underwhelming 699 OPS. The League OPS that year was 727 and the team's 744. Very little power with only 9 XBH's in 177 PA's. And then came the mystery trouble.
Taylor looks to have three plus tools. Instead of hitting for average, I'm going to call his tool batting eye. I doubt this is too controversial. Taylor has shown exceptional patience at the plate. Taylor also possesses the power tool. He had 38 XBH's this year, including 17 HR's in the power deflated Midwest League. Taylor also has some wheels. He snagged 40 bases in 54 attempts, for a 74% average.
So with that, I see three above average tools. I know little about his fielding abilities. I've read reports saying he was both good and bad with the glove. It is worth noting that he was moved to first to accomodate Moustakas's move to the hot corner. And for the final tool, throwing ability, I also have no idea. But 3/5 ain't bad, ain't bad at all.
Given Taylor's production, tools, and age, the future looks bright for the former bad boy*. If he can hone his contact skills he could bump up to elite prospect status. And with his wheels, could Taylor play CF? Adrian Ortiz played CF for much of the year in Burlington until he was promoted. Is it plausible for a HS SS, moved to 3B in the pros, moved to 1B to accommodate the organizations top prospect, could possibly be a CF in disguise? Far fetched probably, but I'd love to get input about this and know if anybody knows examples of this happening anywhere else.
*Is this fair? I really hope someone knows exactly why he missed 2007. But bad boy Jason Taylor kinda has a nice ring to it? Maybe not.
Taylor isn't a sexy prospect like Mike Moustakas or Dan Cortes. He will likely never hit for a BA above 265-270. But with his keen eye, developing power, and outstanding speed, it shouldn't matter. Only time will tell, but if Taylor could utilize his athleticism and make a move to CF, Taylor could develop into something truly special a la Carlos Beltran.*
*I probably don't need a pozterisk at the end of my post, but oh well. In Low A Spokane in the NWL, Beltran posted a 270/362/433 with 10 SB's. Compare Beltran's 795 OPS in a 705 OPS league to Taylor's 790 in a 693 OPS league. I know I'm dreaming because Carlos was always a CF, but you know what, it never hurts to dream. Especially as a Royals fan. Baseball Powerball, keep on dreaming baby.
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My pozterisks
didn’t get italicized. Thats frustrating, they were in my post. Oh well.
Alex Gordon in '08
Taylor's splits
He had an absolutely terrible May-June posting sub .200 BA so to think he couldn’t be a .265-270 BA hitter might be going a bit too far. His plate discipline, combined with his power and speed could lead to higher BA’s.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
To go a bit further
his 11.1 LD% and .208 BABIP vs lefties could have helped contribute to his low BA. Actually until his August (23% LD) his LD% was sub 9% which is extremely low.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
by kcscoliny on Sep 16, 2008 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Hey...
where do you find Minor League LD % and BABIP and splits? Is is at BA or is it free somewhere?
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah...
wish they kept archives of previous years
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
they do
go upper right hand corner of the player you are looking at and you can pick the season you want to look at
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
Thanks
but I meant for players who aren’t in the minors anymore. I’ve been curious about Gordon’s L/R splits in the minors for a while now…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I think MLS is it right now
Hopefully, going forward they will keep an archive. Firstinning.com also has some splits (but not platoon splits) for the current season, plus wOBA (which is probably the best “one number” metric for hitting over BP’s Eqa and THT’s GPA).
Have you found Stat Corner yet? It is still in beta form and has not added the minor leagues yet, but there seems to be a lot of potential. They have a pitching metric (tRA) that does FIP one better by incorporating batted ball data. It is not scaled to ERA, so it is not as intuitively easy to use as FIP, but they provide league averages right next to it.
Yeah, I saw that right when it came out
haven’t spent much time there. It will take me a little while to get used to their stats.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
That's very true
But players are likely going to have two poor months in any full season. That LD% is unusually low along with that 208 BABIP. But he did finish the year with a 242 BA so I think its likely with those numbers normalized he has a 260-270 BA. Not great, but with his walks it doesn’t really matter. And Taylor isn’t a strikeout machine so that bodes well also.
Alex Gordon in '08
LD% in the low minors is VERY unreliable
Just sayin. I would take it with a grain of salt.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
With his 40 SB's
I forgot to mention that he was 4th in the league in that category. With his combination of on base skills and speed only two players are in his realm. Ben Revere of the Twins and Clay Fuller of the Angels.
I really like Jason Taylor, btw. :- )
Alex Gordon in '08
have you seen him play?
I’ve heard he’s got OK speed but he’s got good baseball instincts (think Teahen on the paths…) that allowed him to steal bases. I would suspect his SB numbers will go down as the pitchers moves get better and the catchers get better.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I did see him play once
He was at first. Yeah it is likely they will go down as pitchers mature. But 40 SB’s is a LOT. And it may have been just organizational, but Teahen never stole bases like this in the minors, or obviously in the majors.
Alex Gordon in '08
I don't think Taylor is even a top 15 prospect in this system
But I put him in my top 20. My read of the scouting and analyst opinions of him is that there are more who are down on him than high on him. He’s going to have to show me more before I’d move him into the top 15.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
What position will he play next year?
I’m confused as to who is going to end up on what level with Moustakas, Hosmer, Taylor, et. al.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean "what level in the Royals system next year"
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
And I should have said "what level/team they are each going to start at next year"
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I would think Taylor and Moose start in Wilmington next year
and Hosmer in Burlington (IA)
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
I would think that Moustakas and Taylor would play the positions they finished the year at, but in Wilmington
Wilmington
Moustakas 3B
Taylor 1B
Burlington
Hosmer 1B
Given the dearth of good prospects on the corners, no one of significance is blocking them.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
i've read
he might be moved to the outfield. wouldn’t be surprised, his athleticism is wasted at 1B.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
someone at Royals Corner mentioned it
Dunno if it has any substance. It was a while ago though.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I saw him play once this year
But it was at First so its pretty hard to take anything from it.
Alex Gordon in '08
It sure doesn't look like he has the body that projects to being a CFer, particularly at higher levels
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
RoyalJHWKR
My top 20 is:
1. Mike Moustakas, IF
2. Eric Hosmer, 1B
3. Dan Cortes, RHP
4. Carlos Rosa, RHP
5. Tim Melville, RHP
6. Dan Duffy, LHP
7. Blake Wood, RHP
8. Kila Kaaihue, 1B
9. Michael Montgomery, LHP
10. Joe Dickerson, OF
11. Julio Pimentel, RHP
12. Daniel Gutierrez, RHP
13. Edward Cegarra, RHP
14. Tyler Sample, RHP
15. Johnny Giavotella, 2B
16. Derrick Robinson, OF*
17. Blake Johnson, RHP
18. Matt Mitchell, RHP
19. Sam Runion, RHP
20. Jason Taylor, 3B
I don’t see how Taylor could make the top 15. In fact, Chris Nicoll arguably deserves to be in the top 20 more than Taylor.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
It was in my Reshaping the Roster part 3 post comparing the current minor league system to the one that Moore inherited, but I suppose I could do a fanpost where we just discussed who should be where on the top 20.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I like the use of color coding
It might be best to save another post until October.
Probably should be talking about which Royals should make the playoff roster, instead
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
i look forward to this...
whenever it comes
by Will McDonald on Sep 16, 2008 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
In the bizarro playoffs
the Royals would face the Mariners in the first round, so Davies gets the nod in game three over Bannister.
Considering
The success that Taylor had this year in pro ball I would rate him higher than all 2008 draft picks except for Hosmer and Melville. That may not be the trend among all professional scouts and prospect raters but for me I appreciate seeing success at the professional level unless the prospect is seen as truly elite out of HS or college.
So given his age, production, tools, I see Taylor as having a very high upside. He’d be in the 9-12 range on my list behind all of your first 8.
Alex Gordon in '08
Hmmm
There’s no way I’d rank him higher than Montgomery, Sample or Giavotella. I just really think his tools and projection don’t justify that high of a ranking.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Montgomery and Sample
Both have tremendous upside. I’m just ranking Taylor higher at this point because of what he did professionally this year. Patience at his age is a great tool, and with his speed, I think Taylor’s upside is very high. Possible 20/20 guy in the majors? Maybe. To me, Giovatella looks very polished, but I have him just behind Taylor because of his limited upside.
After Sample and Montgomery play next year its very possible if not likely they would jump Taylor on my prospect list.
Alex Gordon in '08
I wouldn't put Taylor ahead of Gio or Monty
Montgomery is a more polished Duffy from what BA said and Gio should zip thru the system rather quickly.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
I guess it is a prospect philosophy thing
When you’re talking about prospects in the low minors (and draftees with no minor league experience), I think tools and upside is much more meaningful than production. So one good season before those draftees have had a chance to play much shouldn’t push them up too much.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I'd agree with RoyalJHWKR
I’d put Taylor below Monty, but ahead of Joe Dickerson, Julio Pimentel, Daniel Gutierrez, Edward Cegarra, Tyler Sample, and Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella had a lower OPS than Taylor at the same level and is a year older. Maybe Giatovella’s higher defensive value makes up the difference, but I’ll take the guy with walks and HR’s over the guy who hits for average. Gutierrez and Sample are close calls for me. And I actually might put Robinson in front of the whole group since the organization seems very high on him. But that 10-15 spot sounds about right for Taylor. It’s not much of an issue since I don’t see a whole lot of difference in status between spots 10 and 20 in your list.
Gutierrez and Giavotella
Will definitely be ahead of Taylor for me. Those two will likely be in the 9-13 range while Taylor will be a tad lower than that right with Dickerson (among position prospects).
Like Taylor’s on base and power potential, but he doesn’t have any real positional value (he’ll likely end up at LF, RF, or 1B). That’s fine but he’s going to have to really hit to have value and I’m not yet convinced he will. That said, I can’t wait to see what he does next year. Really a boom or bust guy.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
quite frankly
i’m shocked that the real reason he was sent home last year hasn’t come out yet. you’d think after a while BA or someone would get a hold of it. anyway, it wasn’t good. the royals sent him home for good reason.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
Definitely
It baffles me too that we don’t know. I was hoping that maybe since we hadn’t really talked specifically about Taylor that maybe somebody had heard something specific.
I tend to lean towards a substance issue. Alcohol/drugs seem to be what I lean towards, but in all fairness to Taylor who knows for sure.
Alex Gordon in '08
I was hoping
somebody would take a stab at the Taylor to CF proposal or his comparison to Carlos Beltran. I must be going off the deep end…
Alex Gordon in '08
I'd say more Mantle than Beltran
six of one…
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think he definitely profiles as corner guy
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
but in all honesty
their A ball numbers are VERY similar, except taylor was obviously told to steal a lot more. if, and i mean IF he could move to CF, his value obviously goes WAY up
Alex Gordon in '08
Carlos
Was also one year younger than Jason b/c Jason decided to take a year off baseball for some odd reason.
Alex Gordon in '08
Probably to feed the starving war orphans of Grass Creek
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by Matt Klaassen on Sep 16, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Taylor was the most underrated prospect in Royals system
His power and stolen bases numbers were tremendous but his plate discipline was even more impressive. Never did figure out what the deal was with his average. Also, Taylor had lots of errors. Taylor had a great year for a player who sat out in 2007.
CF is a position that KC doesn’t look too badly in lower minors. D. Robinson, Orlando, Ortiz and Lough are CF that could be in the top 30 prospects. I’d leave Taylor at 1B with Hosmer right behind him, the depth is good. Let the competition sort itself out especially at 1B. Also, I like Clint Robinson at 1B even though he was older for Midwest League. With Kila, the 1B depth isn’t too shabby.
I agree
I think he’s underrated as well. KC does have a lot of CF depth, but if Jason could hack it his offense would make him more valuable then all of those guys, as long as he continues to produce as he goes up the ladder.
You’re right though, the competition will ultimately sort itself out. Our minor league system is shaping up. We are still missing quite a few impact bats, but with a couple more drafts I think we will have a top 10 system, maybe top 5.
Alex Gordon in '08
Baseball America's view going into the draft
Taylor is an excellent athlete who played shortstop at Kellam High but likely will take his 6-foot-1, 200-pound frame to first base or the outfield professionally. He broke his arm early in the summer of 2005 and missed most of the showcases, but his talent was evident as a member of Team USA’s junior national team. Some compared Taylor with Justin Upton for his athleticism and the ease with which he plays the game. Taylor’s bat is his ticket, and he centers balls well. He’s at least an average runner, though his power is a question mark. He should be signable in the fifth- to 10th-round range.
Probably should move him to a corner outfield spot if he is as athletic as the comparisons. If he had the arm to play 3b I would think he would be able to play corner of.
It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.
One of the things that I think limits him is his body
While athletic, many who have seen him play this year, say he looks kind of pudgy. So there’s a body issue and maybe a work ethic issue. It doesn’t sound like he’s staying in the best shape.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Body?
His body didn’t keep him from stealing 40 bases. I don’t exactly understand how the looks of his body could limit his ability.
Alex Gordon in '08
It can limit his speed and quickness
The fact that he stole 40 bases in low-A doesn’t mean he’s got great speed or quickness. It means he has at least good speed. His weight and the kind of shape he’s in can be the kind of thing which keeps him from being a good defensive corner OFer or CFer. I’m not saying he definitely can’t do that, but I think it limits him somewhat.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
and if we're projecting, what do we project his body to be in four to five years
IF he isn’t keeping in shape now?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
When you're in your early 20's
You usually don’t gain a lot of weight if you lead a fairly active lifestyle even if you aren’t working out all the time. So I don’t expect him to balloon up. But I hope he works out more and goes in the other direction.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
all about dedication really...
If he cares, he won’t allow himself to get too big.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
When I quit playing baseball at age 23 I gained 25 lbs in 3 months.
I was still working out and running on a daily basis. I don’t know what happened but now it’s still there! And stuck! I’m still lifting like I played and now I’m sitting at 6 1 220! Make it go away!!
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Amos Otis COMP
AO – 5’11" 170 lbs.
Played third and first in the minors, moved by Tallis to CF in KC. Power/Speed combo.
Alex Gordon in '08
There are a lot of toolsy guys in the low minors
Some of them turn into Carlos Beltran. Some of them turn into absolutely nothing. Having good tools is great, and it appears that Taylor has 3, whereas Beltran had 5. But just because he’s a toolsy guy with some success in the low minors doesn’t mean that he’s a young Beltran. While Beltr
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
Well of course not
I never meant to imply that Taylor WILL in fact become the next Beltran.
Its just cool to see the similar production, round drafted, similar tools (3/5), etc. The chances of Taylor even being a major leaguer at this point are still 50/50.
Its just fun to dream a little bit, project greatness. I prefer to have delusions of grandeur than be Rob Neyer.
Alex Gordon in '08
Well, since nobody else is going there
What do we want with an old defensive end anyway?
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
The Royals don't have enough bald players or prospects
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I wish the KC Jason Taylor had the build of the football one
The dancing fool is tall, lean and strong. Our guy looks kind of soft although he must be able to run with the SB total. He is a young guy so dedication in off season could really help him out. Maybe having Hosmer behind him will be good motivation. Hosmer is one of those types that he could move quickly with his potential.
It kind of seems like if he really set his mind to it, he could be a lot faster and quicker
He clearly has speed if he’s stealing 40 bases in a minor league season. But that soft, somewhat pudgy body has to be limiting his athleticism. If he really dedicated himself to getting in the best shape possible, I think it would help his speed and quickness and enable him to be a good defensive OFer, and maybe even a CFer. Without that, he’s stuck to the corners and maybe not a good defensive corner OFer.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
I just responded
to your soft body comment up above. Your reply here answers what I was wanting. Perhaps his level of conditioning could be quite a bit better, its impossible to know. Only time will tell. Hopefully he has at least matured quite a bit since his dismissal last season and will use this offseason to make another step forward in his development.
Alex Gordon in '08
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