But you know, I’m a gambler at heart. Which is why I always walk away from casinos broke.

Here’s one way of looking at it. After Vermeil left the Chiefs and Roaf retired and then Shields retired and then Kenny got old, not to mention Trent Greene, we were left with exactly two players on our roster that were just head and shoulders above everyone else, talent-wise. Larry Johnson and Tony G. Let’s be real, neither one of those two had any real chance to succeed on what was an otherwise crappy team, and trading them away for talent or draft picks or whatever may have been difficult on the one hand because we would have watched our only two fun players depart, but would have greatly helped the rebuild.

Now, Greinke’s career is going to be long, and he’s likely going to be good well into the future, long enough to still be around for whatever new team we field in 2011 or even 2012 assuming we lock him up soon. The problem is, the Royals just aren’t loaded with talent in the high minors right now. Let’s assume Moustakas comes up in 2010 at age 21 (not a whole ton of players succeed in the big leagues at age 21 by the way) and Hosmer comes up in 2011 at age 21, and, well, you’re looking at something like 2013 before those guys start to mature, so let’s not factor them into the equation at all for now. Let’s just pretend they don’t exist.

So what we’re left with, in all of AA and AAA, in terms of offensive prospects is Kila Ka’aihue. And maybe Brayan Pena? So that means that for the foreseeable future, we’re fielding the same team we have now + a free agent or two + Kila. Oh yeah, and Shealy (I just don’t know what to make of this Shealy thing. Why am I so reluctant to buy in?). Joe Posnanski talks about “CCG’s”, or “Championship Caliber Guys,” guys who would play a significant role on a contending team. So, by my count, our offensive CCG’s might be Gordon (no sure thing), Butler, Dejesus (if he can stay healthy), and MAYBE Aviles. MAYBE Ka’aihue? Shealy? We’re dealing with a lot of question marks here. Gordon and Butler are even question marks.

Pitching CCG’s, of course, are Soria, Meche, Greinke. It’s not unreasonable to think that those three guys could wind up pitching well for a non-contending team until all of their contracts are up. Sort of like the idea of Larry Johnson performing well until the Chiefs rebuild starts to come to fruition.

On the other hand, we do have two pitchers in the high minors who may be ready to contribute as early as next season, in Carlos Rosa and Dan Cortes. Now, suppose you two or three very exciting, impact position players for Greinke. That would leave you with Meche and Soria at the major league level, with Rosa and Cortes not far behind.

Suddenly your offensive CCG’s could be: Gordon, Butler, Dejesus, position player X (i.e., Matt Laporta-level player), position player y (Jed Lowrie or Yunel Escobar-level player), and possibly Ka’aihue or Shealy. Add a free agent pitcher, add a free agent position player, and, you know what, it’s starting to look like a more balanced team.

But MLBTraderumors speculated that Brian Bannister for Jeff Franceour made a fair amount of sense. I tend to agree.

I was just shocked and floored by the idea initially. Then I thought about it and realized HOW FAR we are away from competing consistently. If will fill three holes from ZG, it’ll be worth it. But they have to be MLB ready players. I’ve decided nothing less than 4 players will be enough.

We also need to open up some OF positions because we’ll be seeking an OF in the ZG deal. And a pitcher and a SS I’m sure. Possibly a C.

So if we fill our need at C, SP, OF, and SS, it’ll be the best thing that could have ever happened to us.

…does Soria go to the rotation? Hmm… – TL

Not named Yankees or Sawx

Brewers? If they collapse this year, they’ll feel the need to scramble to replace CC & Sheets. I don’t know if their farm system could support another big trade though. However, they have players at the MLB level that are interesting (Fielder, Hart…)

Mets? There again, if they collapse (again) Minaya might mortgage more for ANOTHER front line starter.

Phillies? Brett Myers might be a change of scenery tyoe of guy that they’d consider dealing. They’ll also have a hole in their OF to fill w/ Burrell leaving (almost surely). Maybe we could package ZG & DDJ or Teabag for a blockbuster deal. How about Teabag, Guillen & ZG for Myers & Jason Werth? Not as much in return, but it frees up $25 million (probably not realistic)

Angels? They’re probably going to lose Garland & K-Rod. Greinke would be an upgrade over Garland. Not sure what their farm system is like these days, but it’s usually among the best…

I would be pissed. Couldn’t root for him anymore. And he’s by far my favorite player.

Would you rather trade Greinke or re-sign him? I know the answer to that question depends on what the Royals could get for him. But if it is Lowrie and Andersen plus another decent player/prospect for Greinke (or some package of that quality from another team), I’d probably rather trade him than extend him. It adds more overall talent to the team and organization and saves money which can be spent elsewhere to improve the team as well.

DM has said he’s off the table in the past. The only way for him to be on the table is via a deal he can’t refuse.

It may not seem like it will, but most teams like to make a big splash in their first year in a new stadium. The Royals will be trying to sell 2009 as a team in a new stadium. There has been some mild improvement this year, and if the Royals land a high money free agent, they could generate a lot of excitement for next year.

However, if they deal one of their most talented pitchers for prospects most fans have never heard of, that could negate a lot of good will spent on a free agent and hurt the perception that the Royals are trying to win, at least in the eyes of the casual fan.

I don’t think Dayton will make decisions based on stuff like this. But I think the Glass family will. And this may be the first test as to whether or not they will really be “hands off”

I’ve heard Moore say, just recently in a Dutton interview, that he won’t compromise his rebuilding plan, that he will stick to the plan even if it means taking longer to reach contention. I would think this means he’s willing to trade Greinke for prospects, new stadium notwithstanding.

But I can’t fathom the Glass family agrees on that particular point. I think the stadium is going to be a big factor in this year’s offseason.