What Does 73-86 Mean?
by royalsreview on Sep 25, 2008 11:40 AM EDT
52 comments
The Royals are now 73-86 and set to avoid 90+ losses for the first time since 2003. What does that win total, coupled with the team's strong September play mean to you?
Here are a three ways we could think about it, roughly arranged from most positive to most negative:
- Dayton's rebuild is working. From 2004-06 the Royals lost over 100 games each season, and, if possible, looked even worse than those numbers suggest. Last season, when the Royals won 69 games, it was actually their highest win total since 2003, and, despite some major injuries and multiple really rough stretches, the Royals have improved on that total again. What we've seen over the last month is the vastly improved team, on offense and defense, that most of us expected coming out of Spring Training. With a strong start and a strong finish, this team has proven it can play good baseball. Now it just needs to execute.
- The team is better, but September results don't mean much. Every year some bad team finishes well, leading to lots of false hope. The 2006 Pirates went 37-35 in the second half of the year, but that hardly meant that the Pirates had somehow become a .500 team. Overall, yes, it is clear that the Royals of 2008 were a stronger team than previous editions, but whatever mometum the Royals have right now, it certainly isn't going to last through five months of ice. Finally, how much is this win total inflated by September's douldrums? In the last week the Royals have gone 7-0 against the decayed remains of the Tigers and Mariners alone. As with individual performances in September, team records must be scrutinized closely.
- Hurray! In three years Dayton fielded a 74-5 win team. And it only took him three years and three of Allard Baird's best draft picks leading the team.
- What might have been. This sucks. With better roster moves and less OBP & SLGing sinkholes, the Royals could easily be close to 80 wins right now, maybe even higher. Essentially, the September surge shows just how much the Royals wasted a ton of great pitching. In an alternate universe, the Royals could have challenged in a weak AL Central this season.
There are more responses, and certainly more nuaced ones. I'm about to check out of my hotel (had to hit the libraries in Conn. & Harvard for my dissertation) however and head back home to D.C.
<Larry King Voice>I wanna hear from you on this. </LKV>
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your right
This is a positive thing for the Royals. They are getting better.
I thought about the 2006 Pirates today too. In fact, I blogged on both them and the 2008 Royals.
I am hoping that the Royals will be able to get rid of some of the problem makers (a.k.a. Jose Guillen) and allow Trey to really put his mark on this team next year.
by Deaner on Sep 25, 2008 11:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think you can "blame"
September for inflating our record. Yes, we’ve played some crappy teams who may not be giving 110% (though we have plenty of series against contenders, too), but it’s not like we’re playing crappy teams and everyone else is playing good teams.
by benfunke on Sep 25, 2008 12:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
We fielded a 74-5 team?
That’s a winning percentage of .936. Why are we not in the playoffs?!?!? Small market bias?
I can’t remember whether its old school conventional wisdom, or whether it was empirically proven, but I thought that teams that did well in the second half generally did see that carried over into the next season more often than not.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 25, 2008 12:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't believe it
but this record-setting season not getting the Royals in the playoffs might be worse than the media ignoring Sweeney’s two .400 seasons and the 83 HR one.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Sep 25, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I keep seeing this same Sweeney reference.
What am I missing?
by djk royal on Sep 25, 2008 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right 'chere
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Sep 25, 2008 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the league was quaking in fear and bigotry
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Sep 25, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My negative thought for the day: We haven't changed a bit.
Last year we played 5 games under our pythag.
This year we played 3 games over our pythag.
If anything we’re worse.
Runs allowed is about the same. Runs scored is worse: we might not even get to 700.
Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!
by mazoboom on Sep 25, 2008 12:58 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
A win total higher than Pythag
That isn’t just luck. Studies have shown that teams with good bullpens overperform their pythag by a few games. So the Royals relationship between their actual record and their pythag is just what it should be.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Sep 25, 2008 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but we had a good bullpen last year too,
so that doesn’t jive with your theory.
by loyal2sdad on Sep 25, 2008 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It isn't my theory
It is the fruit of much repeated sabermetric research. That doesn’t mean this is going to happen with every team in every season. Buddy Bell’s bullen usage didn’t help either.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Sep 25, 2008 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's true
I have read that research as well.
I’m a Bell-basher as much as the next guy, but I can’t honestly say Hillman used the bullpen any better than Bell did.
I think Bell did many things very poorly, but I thought managing the bullpen might have been the one thing he did best.
Don’t get me wrong – I think Hillman,(excluding the usage of Gobble) has done a good job with the pen as well.
by loyal2sdad on Sep 25, 2008 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That may be right
The difference might not be the manager; it might just be luck. But the principle is sound.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Sep 25, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but we have a better bullpen this year than last!!
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Sep 25, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Keep in mind
while Pythag is a great tool for in-season analysis, it really does not hold up well on a year to year basis because the players and their performance are not identical from year to year. The Pythag for the 2008 team was substantially hurt by the extended horrible performances by Gload and Pena, but they are irrelevant to the 2007 team (when neither was nearly as bad as 2008) or to the 2009 team (as neither player is going to have the same playing time, and may not be on the team).
by Gopherballs on Sep 25, 2008 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You mean, thanks to AVILANCE!!!
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on Sep 25, 2008 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My own opinion about Pythag
I think it can just as easily mean a team was more (or less) successful in blowouts than meaning they were more (or less) successful in close games decided by bullpen usage.
by loyal2sdad on Sep 25, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was the entire point
when James stumbled upon the Pythagorean relationship. His original essay said (paraphrased) “If Seattle starts the season 16-6 by winning a bunch of one-run games, but getting blown out in their losses, it’s safe to say they’re not going to keep winning.” It is, in fact, the blowouts which are the “tell.”
Sarcasm™. It's the new gravy.
by jonfmorse on Sep 25, 2008 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, but
check out this:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php
BP has us, indeed, 3.1 wins over Pythag. But by their other measurements (one using our EQR and EQRA—which is supposed to be better than Pythag and the other using AEQR and AEQRA—which also adjusts for difficulty of pitching/hitting faced)—we should have 0.1 wins more or 1.4 wins more.
Also, 2007 WARP1 is 41 and 2008 WARP1 is 53—so that shows we are better.
by nwroyal on Sep 25, 2008 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What it means is that
We’ve moved up from pathetic to middle-of-the-road. August proved we can’t beat the big boys, but September proved there’s a bottom below us. That’s not “a meaningless September” unless you want to consider the losses in August to be “meaningless” as well. So we beat up on worse teams. Better teams beat up on us, and no one pooh-poohs those losses. So we shouldn’t pooh-pooh the wins. We’re better than Oakland and Seattle and Detroit this year. That’s a definite step upward.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Sep 25, 2008 1:16 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Don't forget,
we are also better than 12 or 13 of the NL teams as well.
by loyal2sdad on Sep 25, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hooray for mediocrity!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 25, 2008 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just look at the Rays
It IS possible for a small-market team in last place to win their division the following year.
Everything just has to click at the right time. This applies any team. Just look at the Yankees and Tigers – they paid out a TON of money in 2008 and still no results.
by Deaner on Sep 25, 2008 1:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, it's possible,
but it’s a long-shot proposition at best.
I saw a graphic on ESPN that showed the Rays were only the 2nd team ever to go from worst record in the league to the playoffs the next season. They improved 29 games (and counting) this season; regardless of what happens, that is an historical season unlikely to be duplicated very often.
by loyal2sdad on Sep 25, 2008 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The other team?
Did it THE BRAVEST WAY
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 25, 2008 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh, that's actually encouraging, right?
Assuming GMDM learned some lessons from what they did, maybe he can repeat it in KC
by loyal2sdad on Sep 25, 2008 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
At the risk of being assaulted
allow me to channel our host, RR, by quoting him
The Braves that Dayton (supposedly) made:
2008: 69-87
2007: 84-78
2006: 79-83In the National League
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Sep 25, 2008 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't he with the Braves for many years before that?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Sep 25, 2008 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I dunno, I think so
I just thought that is what RR would (and did) say.
In the reviews I read of Scouts Honor, Dayton doesn’t come up much, so it’s not clear to me where RR is getting the “Dayton was the man in Atlanta” thing, but I haven’t read the book, so I dunno.
It’s hard to tell, anyway, because if I’m not mistaken, not only have the Braves “core” been aging, but they’ve also had to make the transition from Ted Turner’s more generous pocketbook to a smaller, more “corporate” budget, which effects the way business is done.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Sep 25, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those don't count
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 25, 2008 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BREAM!!!
Please don’t bring up the Braves. In addition to being a Royals fan, I’m also a Pittsburgh Pirates fan (I know it’s horrible). The 1992 NLCS and Sid Bream’s slide are included in my worst (and most vivid) baseball memories.
by Deaner on Sep 25, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heh
I remember cheering wildly for the Braves that year. Why? Because the Pirates had a mini-dynasty going, or so it seemed, and the Braves were just this underdog upstart.
My how a few years can change your perspective.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 25, 2008 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're right
1992 was the Pirates’ last winning season… that was 16 years ago.
I think I just have a bad choice in teams but, like many things, it’s a function of geography. I grew up in West Virginia (hence the Pirates) and then attended K-State (hence the Royals).
by Deaner on Sep 25, 2008 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Will, I agree with...
…all four of your bullet points on different days. Although September can in some cases be written off to mediocrity, we had at least one good series against the Indians and the Sox, I think. We’ve had some good stretches because Dayton’s pitching improvements have started to pay dividends. We’re not there yet, but we could be. This off-season might be as critical as any we’ve had. There are precise positions that need upgrading, and the question will be whether that happens through trades or FA signings.
In general, it’s nice to be out of the 60ish wins and 90ish losses categories. As one said above, there’s some comfort to being mediocre after years of suckitude. – TL
by timlacy on Sep 25, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm excited to be out of the 60's too!
Let’s see what next year holds for us!
The pitching has already paid dividends. Let’s just build it up to where it needs to be and build around it. Isn’t that Dayton’s theory anyway?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on Sep 25, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mediocrity is a rest stop on the road to contention
It’s kind of a boring place, but it is nice to be on the road and going in the right direction.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on Sep 25, 2008 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess it isn't as fun without Sweeney around to blame
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Sep 25, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or Emil Brown
But we’ll always have Pena.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Sep 25, 2008 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's hope not
Sometimes you just gotta roll the potato.
by CentralChamps2009 on Sep 27, 2008 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Smirky will be the next Sweeney
How dare him not be as good as good as George Brett!!!!
We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan
by Royal Kingdom on Sep 25, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Gotta give a shout out to George Brett on this one. I know he’s trying, but you could argue that he’s as unclutch with the PR as he was as clutch as a hitter. It’s the first press conference. All he has to say is “Alex is a great kid, and I think he’s going to be a good player for the franchise. Let’s all just let him be himself and I think we’ll all be happy.”
Something like that. You know, a line-drive single. Nothing exciting, gets the guy on second home, game over.
But no, Brett decides to swing for McCovey’s Cove or something. For some stupid reason, I can’t find the exact quote, but wasn’t it “By the time it’s all over, it will be an honor for me to be compared to Alex Gordon.” Yikes. I don’t think it was remotely intentional. But still, thanks, George! Way to take the pressure off!
Also of minor “help” was Buddy Bell, who busted out a Frank Thomas comparison in Spring Training 2007, I believe. Buddy Bell — knowing exactly how to win over the KC fans, as always.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Sep 25, 2008 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mediocrity is a rest stop on the road to contention
Its not one of “those” kind of rest stops is it?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Sep 25, 2008 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Sep 25, 2008 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
73-86 means
KC isn’t in the bad 1/3 of teams anymore. The Royals still suck at times and have a long way to go. But not having 90+ losses is big considering 2004-2006 were such wastelands.
KC has more building blocks now than I can remember. They aren’t all superstars but contributors to a winning team one day: Greinke, Meche, Soria, Hochevar, R. Ramirez, Mahay are keepers. That is half of the staff. I liked the bullpen was it was healthy with Nunez, Bale, and Tejeda. Davies and Bannister are maddingly inconsistent but have some ability.
In the lineup, DDJ, Aviles and Gordon can be built around for the future. For all of his immaturity and general prick-ness, Guillen has had the best stats with RBIs in years. Callaspo and Butler should improve in 09. KC found that Teahen isn’t a big league regular OF. If KC doesn’t improve their OBP and HRs, the offense will continue to kill them in the AL. Pitching was good enough to win 10 more games but hitting let them down. There were games the opposing pitchers didn’t even look like they were challenged. 3 pitches or less on too many ABs is giving them away.
On the whole, I am pleased that the Royals finished strong in September. I thought in August they were giving up. Aviles was wonderful this season. Not sold on Hillman but he was a rookie this year too. He needs to improve as well. The performance of the majority of the pitching staff gives me lots of hope for 09.
by daveyork on Sep 25, 2008 4:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
i think it means we're still not very good...
more TPJ perhaps?
where tpj happens.
by blue bandwagon on Sep 25, 2008 5:11 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kittycats just beat the Rays
So maybe these September games weren’t “gimmes” after all, eh?
Our hold on fourth is just half a game – let’s pray for some Twin killing.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
by cmkeller on Sep 25, 2008 7:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I bet we'd have about 4 to 7 more wins
if had just never played TPJ this year, at all.
Maybe that’s an exaggeration. Any SABR folks want to weigh in on that one?
by KC Gunner on Sep 25, 2008 10:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
TPJ VORP is around -30
that’s 3 wins. If Aviles or someone had just managed replacement level (at SS, a dude wouldn’t even have to hit as “well” as Jose Guillen) for the time TPJ was starting, well, that’s three wins.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on Sep 25, 2008 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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