2-0 Rays in the middle of the 2nd. For Gameday updates:

http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/index.jsp?c_id=det

Let’s clinch 4th, baby!

But goddamn I want the Sox to not make the playoffs. And the Twins too if that could happen somehow.

If you look beyond the ERA, and if you keep him in a relief role, he’s a pretty good lefty reliever (and not just a LOOGY). At this point, I’d probably offer him $1.8M for arbitration (basically the minimum by rule).

…away from the wall or whatever it was he stupidly smashed earlier this year. He can be a real asset when healthy.

2-1 Detroit in the top of the 3rd. Tampa has runners on first and second with 1 out against human baseball bat magnet Dontrelle Willis.

Should probably wait until after tomorrow when Meche’s stats are added in, but I’m sure we’ll review and analyze it to death between Monday morning and the end of Spring Training. I’ll probably try to do another post on this after the season’s over so I can pretend to be a competent analyst. Unless I find another TV show to compare to the Royals. It’s all good.

Stat Corner is a relatively new (in fact, it’s still in "beta") Stat site that has some cool new metrics. Thanks to Gopherballs for redirecting me to it. It has cool stats — wOBA (weight on-base percentage) that is basically an improved OPS/VORP that corrects to give OBP it’s proper weight, and derived bRAA (Batting Runs Above Average) and other stuff from it, also with park and league adjusted versions, among other things. But this is about pitching.

In pitching, their main stat is tRA. tRA is like (Fielding Independant Pitching), and so gives a much more accurate read of pitching performance than ERA. They also have tRA+, which is like OPS+ for FIP — compares a pitcher’s tRA with league average (always 100) with park adjustments. FOr more, just check the glossary on their site. Here’s some of the good/interesting Royal tRA+ stuff.

Greinke 123 tRA+. That’s 10th in the AL out of 60 qualified starters. That’s #1 material right there, folks. Better yet, he was 8th in pRAA, the counting stat version, which is sorta the Stat Corner version of VORP. Just to give an example of how fielding might have effected Zack’s games this year (although I think this is independent of tRA), they have another stat called OxO. Outs – Expected Outs. Basically, It takes the Outs made by the pitcher and substracts the number out Outs the pitchers performance should have produced. This accounts for the good/bad luck a pitcher might have experienced due to e.g., good/bad defense. A positive number means the pitcher has been fortunate, a negative number indicates bad luck. Zack has a -17 on the season. He is tied for the fifth unluckiest starting pitcher in the AL.

Meche (before today’s game) 117 tRA+. He’s ranked 15th. That’s one of the best #2s in the league. He’s 13th in pRAA. He’s also been the victim of poor luck, having a -5 OxO. Also, I can’t upload pictures, but did anyone else notice the Royals official Gameday story? That’s right, at least for now, it’s titled ‘Gil Closes The Deal.’

Oh, man, I can’t believe Dick Kaegel stole our idea. What, he’s there right now? You said it was over. No, don’t put him on the pho— hi, Dick!.

Kyle Davies 100 tRA+. Huh. We were riffing on this before the game. Nornally, being exactly league average wouldn’t be too much to be excited about. While Davies hot streak gave people a lot of hope, so did Jose Guillen’s in May and June — that’s the natre of hot streaks — they’re typically unsustainable. But still, it evened out to a league average pitcher. That’s a #3 guy. So even if Davies drops back off a little, he has a decent shot at being a good #4. Not bad for Octavio Dotel. Given that Davies needs to be a #5 at most, we should be happy with that. His OxO is exactlly 0.

How about the relievers?

Joakim Soria is 12th among 101 qualified relivers with a 147 tRA+. Reliever tRA+s, like ERAs, are much higher than starters, probably because they’re all put in the pool together. For example, Mariano Rivera has the highest tRA+ of all qualified relivers with a 253. Soria’s PrAA before today’s game was 9.87, 10th among qualified relievers.

Not far behind, at 14th, is Leo Nunez, with a 141 tRA+ (Bobby Jenks is right between them). Nunez’s PrAA is 7.03, which is in the top 20 among qualified relivers. Pretty impressive considering it is a counting stat and he was out with an injury for a while.

Ron Mahay, after a brilliant first half, fell to a 94 tRA+ (69th).

Oh yeah, who’s the other guy in the pen who pitches sometimes? The one that always forces everyone to call for SORIA NOW? Ramon Ramirez? He has a 172 tRA+ on the year. That’s right — highest tRA+ of any qualfied starter or reliever on the Royals. 25 points higher than Soria’s. I’m not saying he’s better than Soria — he doesn’t have the track record or the pitch mix. But how about Mr. Perfectly Round Gameday head getting a little love? Not convinced yet? Before today’s game, Team RamRod had a 14.52 pRAA. That’s the best among Royals relievers, third in the league among qualified relievers (only Rivera and Papelbon are ahead at this time), and third on the Royals behind only Zack and ol’ Gil.

Yup. RAMROD.

Is this really my head, or just a dried totem from the cannibal tribes of the South Pacific?

Weren’t you supposed to start your decline a couple of years ago?

Cheers,

devil_fingers

CC: Magglio Ordonez

They score 4 to bring the score to

Indians 8
Chisox 6

Now, we have to win tomorrow to clinch a tie for fourth.

Tribe wins too, so we haven’t hurt the Twins yet.

And the White Sox have returned them, unopened. It’s always fun to watch that team implode.

I want the Royals to continue to pound on the top teams in the AL Central, but I would rather see the Twins make the playoffs than Ozzie, A.J., and those mouthy southsiders.

I am also bummed out because this is the last time the Royals will play until Spring 2009.