Taking out the Trash...

by RoyalPug on Sep 30, 2008 12:46 AM EDT Comment 29 comments

So a while back I made some comments about how the Rays had gone from horrible to great in just one season, and used OPS to show how we too could go down the same path and quickly become contenders.

Thats been sitting in the back of my mind and I wanted to do a more detailed, accurate version using VoRP to determine just how much better we would have been. To be honest I was a bit surprised at what I found.

VoRP (value over replacement player)- is essentially the number of runs that a player creates (or loses) compared to a mythical league "average" player. Positive runs mean that the player helped his team score that many more runs than an average player, while negative means an average player would have made more. Generally 10 "runs" of VoRP is about a win. So Albert Pujols with his herculean 90+VoRP made 9 more wins for the cardinals than a league average 1B.

So what does this mean for the Royals? Basically that making a few, very reasonable changes can push them closer to contention than you might think.

For our purposes I took the 5 worst position players, and the 5 worst pitchers, provided replacements from inside the organization (and their VoRP's where applicable, If not we simply assume league average) and calculate the number of wins that the Royals COULD have had. I tried to get as close as possible in terms of number of innings pitched/ Plate attempts.

Position Players:

1. Tony Pena Jr. (-24.9 VoRP) [Mike Aviles(35.0 VoRP)]- Wow...The diffrence right here alone is nearly 41 runs during the time Pena played. [Pena -25, Aviles +21] Had Aviles played the whole year, his VoRP would have been 56. Good for 17th in the MLB and right behind Joe Mauer.

2. Ross Gload (-7.5 VoRP) [Ryan Shealy (7.4 VoRP)]- Again...WOW in just 80 PA Shealy managed to win the Royals 1.5 more games than Gload did in 5 times as many PAs. This is the only really hard one to calculate since the number of PAs is so diffrent. So I left it out of the final calculation.

3. Joey Gathright(-6.1 VoRP) [Replacement (0.0 VoRP)]-Well I was going to say Maier...till I realized his VoRP wasn't much better. Dear DM, Corner OF should be a MAJOR PRIORITY.

4. Esteban German(-4.6 VoRP) [Alberto Callaspo (7.4 VoRP)]- Alberto actually managed to come in 5th on the team in VoRP, despite haveing only 230 PAs.

5. John Buck (-2.8 VoRP) [Miguel Olivo (7.0 VoRP)]- I like this comparison least because of the way the two were used, since I can't help but think that If Miguel had faced more RHP he would not have done as well.

Pitching Staff

( I will hold off putting Soria in for a SP, please note however that in 67.3 innnings, he has almost the same VoRP (30.1 to 38.3) as Gil Meche (210.3 innings))

Also, Kudos to Greinke for being the only Royal in the top 30 (24th) in VoRP.

1. Brett Tomko(-9.7 VoRP) [Ducky! (4.7 VoRP)]- Well Ducky's VoRP surprised me quite a bit, but he has been relatively effective.

2. Yimmy Yobble (-9.6 VoRP) [John Bale (4.1 VoRP)]-another one of those, "Wait...really?" picks

3. Brian Bannister(-8.3 VoRP) [Replacement (0.0 VoRP)]- I'd like to put Rosa here. Just for the record Hochevar is actually right at replacement level.

4. Hideo Nomo(-6.3 VoRP) [Yasuhiko Yabuta(3.3 VoRP)] - It seems easier to get a positive VoRP as a pitcher, that or our Offense REALLY sucks

5. Jeff Fulchino (-6.0 VORP) [Neal Musser(0.6 VoRP)]- Neal's likely would be much higher, but he only pitched for an inning...This is possibly the second most egregious misuse of talent, other than the Pena-Aviles problem.

So what does this all equal out too?

From the position players(sans Gload) the Royals could have had almost 69 more runs, just by using in house replacements.

From the pitching staff the Royals could have had almost 53 more runs, just by using in house replacements.

For a grand total of 122 more runs this year. Using the rough estimation of 10 runs = 1 win the Royals could have had 12 more wins THIS YEAR, for a record of 87 and 75.

With even a little luck that is a team that could have won the division.

So Dayton, don't go spend happy this off-season. We don't really need it. Simply make sure that the best players are playing. Oh, and a corner OF bat really wouldn't hurt. [*Cough* Raul Ibanez (39.3 VoRP) is worth about 4 wins over Gathright *cough*]

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Nice

I was hoping for a end of season VORP off, thanks for the post.

Alex Gordon in '08

by RoyalJHWKR on Sep 30, 2008 1:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

So Dayton, don’t go spend happy this off-season. We don’t really need it. Simply make sure that the best players are playing.

I wouldn’t go that far. Certainly the best players should be playing, but I don’t think we’re “almost there” just by playing the right players. Over a full season, Shealy wouldn’t hit anything like what he hit in September. Aviles can’t be counted on to hit this well over a full second season. I don’t think one can accurately extrapolate from some small sample VORP’s to conclude that if the “right players” had played all season the Royals would have had 87 wins.

Moore needs to do two things this offseason:

1. Trim the deadwood so that Hillman won’t be tempted to (mis)use them. Pena, Gload and Gobble quickly come to mind.

2. Use available money to add some important pieces to the rebuilding effort.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 30, 2008 5:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Why all the pessimism on Sheally and Aviles?

I see you posting all the time and I am curious. Is this something that you personally believe, that they are not as good as they showed this year. Or is this more stats based on your observation. I know for Aviles it is because there has not been many if any SS of his age that lasted more then a year or two. But what about Sheally, he has shown in parts of two seasons that he can be a decent 1st baseman with good power. I think for him anyway you hold last year against him to much.

This post sounds more negative then it was meant to be I was really just curious. Also I agree with both of your points.

by TXroyal on Sep 30, 2008 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

shealy has parts of two seasons where he was decent, and parts of a third where he sucked. he is a viable option, but at 29, he doesn’t project to get too much better. he still has holes in his swing. upgrade over gload, but not by too much over a full season.

for aviles, royals fans really need to start preparing themselves for the fact aviles could very conceivably take a dive in offensive stats next year. I have made the point before that he has a unusually high BABIP given peripherals. maybe he is a completely new breed of player that doesn’t fit the mold of anybody else, or maybe he is due for some regression. he doesn’t walk and his power tailed off as the season went along. I hope I am wrong, but an OPS of ~.700 isn’t out of the question for 2009.

that being said, both have player well enough to earn the chance to keep playing and prove doubters wrong (or right). and i think NY would more or less agree with that

by ZeppelinDZ on Sep 30, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My take

Aviles – there is the historical argument about guys of his profile, but there’s more. His overall stats this year came from two great months, but then as pitchers learned how to pitch to him, his numbers declined. I think the decline is more like the “real” Aviles that we’ll see in the future. But that’s still good for a SS. One problem for Aviles is that his OBP (and to a lesser extent, his SLG) is heavily batting average dependent. The problem there is that batting averages are fairly erratic (unlike plate discipline and power). He’s likely to have big swings up and down based on how much contact and BABIP luck he’s experiencing at a given stretch.

Shealy – There is very little MLB data to go by and it is all over the place. Even if you discount his injury-plagued 2007 season, it’s still not very impressive. And when you throw in his minor league numbers (given age, league and park), it’s still not impressive. I could give you more complicated statistical arguments about his MLE’s from the minors, but suffice to say they aren’t very good. Not awful, but not impressive either. In short, I think there is every reason to believe he’d make a well below average MLB first baseman. Perhaps a decent bench bat or the lesser part of a 1B platoon.

This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.

by NYRoyal on Sep 30, 2008 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shealy put himself back on the map

and aviles will certainly be better than TPJ… but beyond that, who knows

by royalsreview on Sep 30, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shealy will hopefully take the job Gload should have had this year — bench/platoon 1B guy. At least if Butler is still on the team and Kila (hopefully) comes up.

If Aviles OPSes .690, that will still be higher than the average AL shortstop this year. If his defense is average, well, then…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 30, 2008 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If Aviles OPSes .690, that will still be higher than the average AL shortstop

Don’t forget that Pena brought that average down about 70 points all by himself.

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by marbotty on Oct 5, 2008 9:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

I think I made this joke elsewhere myself, but well-done anyway.

OMG, I’ve being a "LOL"er

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 5, 2008 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

FWIW I am only crdtng u for the rest of ur post bc i liked it OMFG

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by marbotty on Oct 6, 2008 3:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

uh oh

Is this a hint that it is time to change my sig? It was meant as a triple-tribute to Banny, JoPo, and RR (who was the one who originally busted it out during a game thread). I’m not sure what I’ll switch to…

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 6, 2008 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i like your sig, don't worry

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by marbotty on Oct 7, 2008 6:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Shealy put himself back on the map

Along with Brockway, Ogdenville and North Haverbrook!

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 1, 2008 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

monorail...monorail...monorail

by ZeppelinDZ on Oct 1, 2008 3:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

monorail...D'Oh!!

by fishbowl72 on Oct 3, 2008 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good work

This is an afterthought, but I’m against choosing Ibanez as our Corner Outfield target, mainly because it would take at least a 3 year commitment along the lines of the Guillen contract. I’m against giving a 36 year old guy a contract like that, even if he did have one of his best seasons this year. Of all the various ways GMs have managed to remake crappy teams into contenders, I think I see one consistency (I haven’t done the research here, I’m just shooting from the arm chair). They’ve managed to get players with potential (via free agency or trade) while their value is lower right before they bust out. If they get a guy who has broken out already, they don’t get him when he’s 36 years old (that’s what the Royals have often done over the years). Examples that come to mind: Carlos Quentin (of course), Carlos Pena, Magglio Ordonez (who had certainly broken out before Detroit got him, but he had a knee injury which scared everyone away…nobody thought he was about to make an MVP run), Josh Hamilton. You know what, I’d add Herk Robinson’s signing of Jermaine Dye to this list (we just didn’t have the pitching in ‘00). You could probably say Gil Meche is another example. So that’s what we’re looking for here, this offseason, to plug that corner OF hole. We want the guy who hasn’t quite shown everybody what he’s got, the slightly unknown commodity.

Jeremy Hermida. Juan Rivera. That guy in Philly, what’s his name…Jason Werth. Cody Ross. Guys like that. Signing Ibanez lacks creativity. That’s what teams like the Yankees do, they only sign aging proven guys, which is just not very clever IMO.

I follow the Tao of Steve (Balboni)

by jackie ballgame on Sep 30, 2008 9:29 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Totally agree

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Sep 30, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jason Werth

Is HIGH on my watch list. But he isn’t a FA this off season. Next off season is when he looks like a sure fire target, but I’d definintely see what Philly might want for him this offseason…

good post

by GoBabies!! on Sep 30, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Correction

Robinson’s trade for Dye, which was risky at the time (we gave up whats-his-name, that super prospect we had that didn’t pan out). That was a fantastic trade.

I follow the Tao of Steve (Balboni)

by jackie ballgame on Sep 30, 2008 9:31 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Michael Tucker

by GoBabies!! on Sep 30, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ooh

And Keith Lockhart

by GoBabies!! on Sep 30, 2008 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

its all relative

but VORP isn’t based off the “average” player, its based off the “replacement” player.

from wikipedia:

“replacement player,” who is an average fielder at his position and a below average hitter. A replacement player performs at “replacement level,” which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as “freely available talent.”

probably just an minor oversight cause your actual analysis used assumptions on replacement players correctly.

good thoughts overall tho

by ZeppelinDZ on Sep 30, 2008 11:29 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

also...

wikipedia tells me

The currency of baseball is the out.

i’m so confused…world shattered…omg…why have we wasted so many resources on pitching when its outs we wanted all along…the humanity!

by ZeppelinDZ on Sep 30, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Our hitters are really rich

They’re really talented at getting outs.

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Sep 30, 2008 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

+1

I’ll just say again that everyone interested should check out www.statcorner.com. They’er VORP-esque counting stats aren’t position adjusted, and problematically go from league-average rather than replacement level (although defining replacement level has its own difficulties, from what I understand). It shows that Ramirez was both more effective and more valuble than Soria this year — erd most valuble pitcher and player on the team.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 30, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just from looking at the VORP list

KC’s bench is a black hole of awful hitters. Disguised as starters for part of the year TPJ and Gload wouldn’t be starters on any team that has a sniff of winning consistently. German’s utility position needs to be upgraded. KC has to do better than Gathright. Don’t know if Maier is the answer but I know that Gathright isn’t the answer. Teahen coming off the bench would help. The rest of them need to be replaced. Hope KC gives B. Pena a long look at backup catcher. The routine of signing a veteran catcher to share time with Buck just isn’t working too well. Consistency of starting lineup with talent helps win games.

by daveyork on Sep 30, 2008 9:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

German has been good until this year

when he was hardly used i the first half. He had a much better second half. If the Royals sign, say, Furcal, they can keep Callaspo as a cheaper, better utility option and tender/trade German.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 30, 2008 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd Love To

Have Germie around, but we’d need a 26 or even 27 man roster to justify keeping him if we make the appropriate improvements this winter. Callaspo is going to be the IF/OF utility player, and Germie is just godawful anywhere but 2B, where he is just not good. I like his hitting, but it’s not good or powerful enough to make up for his defense.

I doubt we could get much for him, but if he could bring an A Ball C- prospect and Moore makes some good moves so he’s no longer needed, I’d do it in a heartbeat.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Oct 1, 2008 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

The routine of signing a veteran catcher to share time with Buck isn't working

Agreed. It’s a backup position, anyway — let’s use any excess money we have to sweeten the deals to the one or two guys that should be our main offseason targets, and use minor leaguers or waiver fodder to fill in the gaps at utility infield, 4th outfielders, or middle relief.

One of the biggest mistakes GM’s make is spending money upgrading backups when there are huge holes elsewhere in the lineup. Baird was a master of doing this — spending tons of dough on marginal upgrades (like millions on 4th or 5th starter types and backup catchers), when there were obvious issues with the outfield or shortstop.

Moore seems to have this same problem, but perhaps not to the same extent. Still, if I see us sign someone like Gerald Laird or Bobby Howry for several million $$$, while still fielding an outfield that features either Gathright or Maier in a starting role because we didn’t go all out on a Burrell or Dunn, I’m going to be irritated.

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by marbotty on Oct 5, 2008 9:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs