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This is an interesting article by Sky Kalkman at Beyond the Box Score. His idea is to understand defensive production on an RBI scale, "which even BBWAA members can understand." That's an excessive optimism, if you ask me, but commendable nonetheless. Kudos to you on your faith in your fellow humans, Sky Kalkman (and compliments on the killer name).

I came across it a couple weeks back, but for various reasons held off posting it. Obviously, it doesn't have the season's final stats, but I'm sure things haven't changed dramatically. You can read the details for how he comes about doing it in the post. He is not recommending RBI as a way to evaluate players. Here are some notes of interest for those who follow the Royals, particularly given the well-documented defensive struggles of the team this year.

No Royals are on the list of players who "gain" the most "RBI" from their fielding.

On the list of those whose RBI are impacted most negatively by their defense:

Alex Gordon: -23. The Smirk's defensive struggles have been much-discussed this year. UZR had him as the 3rd best defensive third baseman in the AL in 2007 (Gordon was at +4, Beltre +5, Inge +12). But the problems were real. Hopefully, he's at least somewhere between both seasons. I do think that Gordon will progress enough as a hitter that his bat will be an asset anywhere. Obviously, it would be best for the Royals if he could play 3rd.

Ross Gload.: -23. OMG this disproves defensive statistics OMFG!!!111 Just kidding. Fortunately, defense at first doesn't matter that much and G-Load's bat totally carries him.*

* Update by Pozterisk! To go along with Royals Review's acclaimed Andy Sisco and Mark Quinn Awards, I propose that Royals Review add a Gload Glove Award, given annually to the player whose primary reason for making the is ostensibly his great defense, but actually isn't good at that, or at the very least can’t possibly still be worth having around (let alone extending). Ross Gload would (naturally) win this year, although TPJ, from most reports, would have had a shot. In most organizations, and probably KC, too, the inevitable veteran catcher brought in will win (e.g., the Law of the Defensive Backup Catcher.), but every once in a while, an exceptional man like Ross Gload comes along and surprises us all. Thoughts?

Jose Guillen: -24. Note that neither Adam Dunn nor Pat Burrell make the list. Bobby Abreu, whom Rany thinks the Royals should pursue, leads this list at -47.

Kalkman also generates lists of players who, when defense is taken into consideration, are the most underrated and overrated by their RBI totals.

On the underrated list: Mike 'Avilanche' Aviles. Was there ever any doubt?

I realize that some people on here think that I "hate" Jose Guillen. He sometimes bugs me, but I think that I've also shown that I appreciate JoGui's (limited) offensive abilities and entertainment value.

I do think the signing was a mistake. What really gets me going, however, is not JoGui himself but people defending his alleged "leadership," or who say that he's one of the Royals better players this season. Um, no, he's not even close. Every decent stat shows that he's been, at best, the 4th or 5th best hitter on the Royals, and maybe not even one of KC's top 10 players.

But he leads the team in RBIs, so that must mean something! Sigh. Whatever. I'm not going to repeat the criticisms of RBI as a measure of offensive skill that go back to at least Branch Rickey. Most people do have at least an understanding of defense, though... With that said, the Royals can be proud that, when Kalkman posted this, one of their own did lead the majors in something.

Tied in first (with Ryan Howard) among "MLB Players Most Overrated by their RBI Totals" is the Pride of Kansas City: 2008 All-Star Final Vote Candidate Jose Guillen.

about 1 year ago Newavatar_tiny devil_fingers 16 comments 1 recs  | 

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while i agree that RBI totals are not a great measure of offensive prowess/performance...

i think that they do tell something. Grudz came up with guys on base quitea bit…and he was on pace for like 30 something RBIs over a full season. Thats terrible…and a useful scenario for looking at RBI totals.

As for guillen, while he didnt really perform as a $12 million ‘100 rbi’ bat should…thanks in large part to his fluky BB totals…he did have his value this year. He led the team in extra base hits by alot…and when you have a team that doesnt hit for good average, good power, draw walks, etc….I think he’s been more valuable for the royals than he wouldve been for most teams. His homers create runs…not allowing guys like teahen to fuck it up. His doubles very frequently do the same b/c aviles and dejesus were often on base in front of him.

I apologize for the long rambling response, it’s just that I think were sometimes overvaluing OBP on a team like ours b/c it often didnt matter if we had guys on base b/c we had nobody behind him who could drive runners in.

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Sep 30, 2008 2:46 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

RBI men

I don’t think RBI mean much. I think that JoGui’s RBI lead is indeed attributable in part to his power hitting. I think it has more to do with having better OBP men in front of him, hitting 3rd or 4th all season, and leadind the Royals in PAs. And luck of getting hits with guys on, and so on.

I don’t think stats w/RISP is useful stat for evaluating performance or skill. But should we look to see who were the Royals team leaders in OPS w/RISP this year? I’ve left off guys like Shealy (#1 in small sample size) and Greinke (1.000 OPS!!!111). Again, I am not endorsing this. But for those who think Guillen got RBIs because of his awesome skill at this, here are the top Royals 2008 OPSes w/ RISP.

1) David Dejesus 1.046
2) Esteban German .959
3) Billy Butler .929
4) Miguel Olivo .908
5) Mike Aviles .826
6) John Buck .785
7) Jose Guillen .738
8) Ross Gload .702
9) Mark Teahen .686
10) Joey Gathright .678
11) Alex Gordon .656

So long, Alex!

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 30, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

RISP

I would say that the ONLY meaningful w/RISP stat is BA w/RISP. After all what is SP? scoring position, meaning player is likely to score on a single. So, by definition, RISP is only useful when dealing with hits. Walks and XBHs, and therefore, OPS seem useless when discussing RISP.

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Sep 30, 2008 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, OK, maybe

I still don’t think this is meaningful as a repeatable skill, especially for batting average, which is itself largely ruled by a certain amount of luck. I would also argue that SLG (or iso) is important, as it makes a difference as how likely the runners are to score, and OBP is, too, since making an out in the situation also blows. I might also list the people who GIDP w/ RISP since that elminates baserunnres and makes two out. But, anyway, with the caveat that this is a silly way to evaluate hitters, here are your top 10 2008 Royals leaders in BA w/RISP (again leaving out Sept. callups and pitchers, although ol’ Gil kicked ass in this).

1) DDJ .419

DDJ: Teabag, can you hand me that hive cream?
MT: Which one is it?
DDJ: The one that says “Bad Ass Motherfucker w/RISP” it.

2) Esteban German .383
3) Billy Butler .327
4) Mike Aviles .316
5) Miguel Olivo .313
6) Joey Gathright .299
7) Alberto Callaspo .296
8) G-Load .292
9) Jose “Clutch RBI Guy” Guillen .279
10) John Buck .274

I’m not sure that it’s fair to evaluate Guillen this way when he has to compete with stud sluggers like Joey Gathright, Ross Gload, and Esteban German, but you asked.

Just to finish what I started, here’ are the Royals 10 GiDP leaders w/ RISP for 2008:

10) Mark Teahen 2 (170 PA w/RISP)
9) The Smirk 2 (139 PA)
8) The Gloaden Rule 2 (104 PA)
7) The Kaiser 2 (54 PA)
6) Alberto Callaspo 2 (62 PA, I think royals.com has this messed up)
5) Don’t F- w/ Buck 4 (123 PA)
4) Grudz 4 (82 PA)
3) Avilanche 6 (107 PA)
2) Butts 7 (112 PA)
1) Take a Wild Guess 13 (197 PA)

Injury Fakin’ DDJ obvious wasn’t trying hard enough, since he didn’t even make the list. Must have been too busy taking walks and stuff like that.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 30, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I know that Moore and HIllman can't acknowledge it

but it would be nice to see some of the KC Star/Royals.com writers besides Posnanski admit that JoGui did not meet expectations this year (or if he did meet expectations, then Moore grossly overpaid).

In the latest KCRoyals.com article, Kaegel listed JoGui as a positive for the season because he hit his “production quotas”. Sure that 20/97 looks nice, as long as you don’t look at the .300 OBP or Mark Teahen-esque 91 OPS+.

by Top Ramen on Sep 30, 2008 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

What's the point?

Everyone knows that Moore overpaid/Guillen didn’t live up to the contract. It’s clear to the naked eye. No amount of acknowleding it is going to change the outcome. And in the end, the only thing the Royals and Guillen can do know is make the best of it.

I’d much rather see us do deals like the Rays did with Hinke than the one the Royals did with Guillen, though. 800K for 20HRs is infinitely better than 12M for 20HRs (and a lot of lip). Unfortunately, I don’t think fans would have been satisfied last year if we signed a guy who made 800K and was just a “peice part”. Sadly, the production wouldn’t have been a lot different.

by Big Guy on Sep 30, 2008 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Late to respond, but

if you read enough comments on Mellinger’s and Posnanski’s blogs, there are a lot of people who thought Guillen, if not great, was pretty good and one of the Royals better players, maybe even their best hitter.

No word on how many of those people are relatives of Jose Guillen or Dayton Moore, though.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Oct 2, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks for the link

Was the entire Ross Gload commentary sarcastic or just the first part? Because I disagree that defense at first base doesn’t matter. It’s easier to hide bad defense at first base, because they get fewer opportunities to demonstrate their lack of talent, but a run lost at first base is worth the same as a run lost at shortstop.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 30, 2008 4:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I believe he is just highlighting the fact that 1B is an offensive position first, defense second.

i.e. even If Ross Gload is the greatest defensive 1B ever, he still does not belong there as a starter because of his bat, or lack thereof..

We always did feel the same, We just saw it from a different point of view, Tangled up in blue.
-Bob Dylan

by Royal Kingdom on Sep 30, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the whole thing was saracastic

Ross Gload sucks. The second part was meant to be funny in a couple of ways.

1) Billy Butler was not played at first base much this because his glove is supposedly really bad. However, Mr. Gload Glove, by most stats I’ve seen, was pretty awful.

2) “His bat carried his glove.” I think in the case of Ross Gload, no explanation of why this is funny is necessary.

I just realized that I left something out that I will now edit in to the main post:

To go along with the Sisco/Quinn awards, I propose that Royals Review add a Gload Glove award, given annually to the player whose primary reason for making the is ostensibly his great defense, but who isn’t even good at that, or at the very least can’t possibly still be worth having around (let alone extending). Ross Gload would probably win this year, although TPJ, from most reports, would have had a shot. In most organizations, and probably KC, too, the inevitable veteran catcher brought in will win (e.g., the Law of the Defensive Backup Catcher.) Thoughts? I’ll add something like this up top in a Pozterisk.

Also, Mr. Kalkman, I didn’t quite understand that - are you saying that the figures you have are the actual run values gained/lost by the player’s defensive plays (as opposed to other +/ systems, which, as I understand it, measure plays made above and below average?). In other words, could we use this to figure out that a player who is, say, 10 runs above replacement level offensively is “really” above or below replacement level?

It would be cool if you updated this stuff for the final year-end tallies, if you have time.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 30, 2008 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Mr. Fingers,

Justin’s stats, which I linked to in the piece start with the unit as plays, and then multiply by about .8 runs per play to convert runs. You could do the same with Dewan’s +/- stats. Why .8 runs per play? That’s the difference in linear weights run value between a single (.5 runs) and an out (-.3 runs).

And yes, finding overall (offense plus defense) value is the reason you convert to runs. If you start with VORP, which already has a positional adjustment, you just add (or subtract) the fielding value of each player. If you start with raw offensive numbers, then you add a positional adjustment and then the fielding numbers. Like what Justin does (and his system handles the positional adjustment better than VORP, fyi.)

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 30, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, Sky (if I may)

hee hee…

I tried to find Justin’s numbers, but it wouldn’t come up for some reason. Do I need a certain (Firefox) plug-in to view Google spreadsheets? Does he have his own defensive system? It would be nice to find a publicly available +/- style defensive stat.

Thanks again. I guess I’ll have to live with the reality that, once defense is factored in, Alex Gordon may very well have been below-replacement level this year. Ugh.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 30, 2008 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

should be easily accessible, try later

it’s not Justin’s own system. he just takes BIS zone rating (from the The Hardball Times, which they call RZR) and STATS zone rating (from CNNSI.com), converts them to runs, and averages them. many have done, he just keeps it updated (ocassionally).

fyi, BIS and STATS are two different data providers.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Sep 30, 2008 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I was familiar with THT defensive stats, but converting them to a +/- system is not straightforward.

OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG

by devil_fingers on Sep 30, 2008 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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