Secrets of the AL Central, III

I’m not saying “see, it’s not a power change!”. You asked if he threw a slow change too, so I looked up the data and that is what they had to say. Now I fully realize that pitch f/x and Questec data and all pitch recognition and categorization systems are far from perfect. (They often classify Livan Hernandez’s 85 mph 4-seam fastball as a changeup). All I showed was that in answer to your question, he does not throw a slow change in addition to the 87.9 mph change.

Now considering that different pitchers’ changeups have different velocities (and therefore different velocity differentials from the players’ 4-seam FB) and with varying degrees of movement, my question to Split would be what differentiates Ramirez’s “power change” from a regular changeup? Isn’t it just a changeup which doesn’t have a great velocity differential from his FB and a lot of movement?

When you talk about individual players like RamRam you are talking about scouts.

My information comes from a variety of sources including but not limited to stats, analysts and scouts.

So don’t try to turn this debate into Frank/Split can’t do what THT/BP/BA do.

Who knows what you were talking about when you said, “Do you really think that Frank or Split couldn’t do their job?” When you were talking about “their job” I think you were on some rant about how I only regurgitate scouting reports, which is of course not true. I use information from stats, scouting reports, analysts and statistical studies, among other things. Can Frank and Split do all of that?

Can they do what Sickels does? Definitely.

So any and every player could become one of the preeminent baseball prospect analysts? All they’d have to do is just set their mind to it, right? Anyone who has played MLB for several years could just do that, right? Think again. Yes, they have good scouting opinions and for all I know they would make good scouts, period. I’m sure some former players would make great scouts and prospect analysts. But not just any and every player, or even every good MLB player. You apparently give far too much credit to former players. They proved that they are good at playing baseball. That is all they have proven.

That just shows where you stand with players. Morgan has thousands of hours of comments on tv over that time EVERYONE would say some dumb things. As far as strategy is concerned it is a hit and miss game and really changes to the strengths of a individual team.

You give Morgan far too much credit. The vast majority of what he says is standard, conventional baseball orthodoxy that you hear from just about every other baseball broadcaster. And then he mixes into that some things which are really, really stupid.

Do you share that same opinion after 149 AB’s this year?

I thought at the time that he projected line drive power and I still think he does. That’s not a lot of power. You act like I didn’t recognize the relevance of PCL numbers. The debate we had was how much you discount one division of the PCL as compared to the other. It was a debate about the degree of discount. Also, do you think that 149 AB’s proves something about a player? Good lord.

That is the problem they don’t watch the lower rung players

Where do you get this from? Of course they (BA, BP, scout.com, etc.) watch the lower rung of players. Callis, Sickels, Goldstein and many, many others tour the low, and high minors every year. And they get information from scouts about the prospects in the low minors as well. They write extensively on prospects in the low minors. So where do you get this utter nonsense that they don’t watch or have much information on prospects in the low minors?

but don’t pass off their opinion as the holy grail either.

I don’t know what “pass of any opinion as the holy grail” means, but I don’t take any piece of information and say that it is the final word. However, the opinions of scouts and the better analysts are important and meaningful. You basically disregard them and prefer going by less information. That really doesn’t make any sense.

I buy the MLBticket, Read Rany, Listen to Sickels on XM read his blog, subscribe to Baseball America and regularly read THT and as many other publications as possible. Maybe I just don’t buy into them as the holy grail

You evinced a fundamental misunderstanding of what BA, BP and THT do. I’m sure you’ve read some things here or there on BA and THT when you’ve run across a link. I think that’s about it. I’m not saying if you read them a lot, then you would highly value everything they say. I’m saying that if you read them, then you wouldn’t have described what they write and how they get their information so inaccurately.

and maybe I don’t totally buy into sabermetrics as fact yet as it is still alot of realtively unknown science/knowledge

It is relatively unknown science/knowledge? Unknown to whom? It’s not like this stuff is brand new. Sabermetrics has been around for years. It is only unknown to those who don’t know about it. I would suggest you look into it. It’s not like it is hard to find sabermetric information and analysis.

I don’t quote those things as fact because I don’t believe them to be.

Those things? What things? Any piece of sabermetric analysis? And what do you mean that isn’t fact? It is analysis and evaluation. And it is worthwhile information. I think your opinions would be better informed if you exposed yourself to it.

When Rany thinks Teahen is a great 4 corner player I don’t what makes his knowledge any better than mine?

First, just because Rany’s opinion is X and your opinion is Y doesn’t mean that you are necessarily wrong. Second, Rany’s knowledge about baseball is greater than both yours and mine because of how much he has studied and researched the game. If you had read some of his writings at BP, you might know this.

Sometimes intelligent people are wrong

Of course, but you are ignoring essentially the entire field of sabermetric analysis, as well as the more tools-based analysis of scouts and prospect analysts. When you disregard the opinions of stat-based and tools-based analysts, you are basically ignoring every intelligent baseball analyst out there. That leaves you with the opinion of broadcasters and a bunch of fans. Do you see the intellectual problem with that?

I think in the end the namecalling is just a result of your condescending attitude and heir that your knowledge is greater in here than everyone elses. Maybe you need to put your condescending tone and heir of superiority in check first either that or just kick me off here.

We don’t have to have great attitudes here. We don’t have to be friendly. We don’t have to suffer fools gladly (that is a figure of speech; I’m not calling you a fool). We don’t want to censor people too much tell them the attitude they have to show in their posts. We want this to be an open and as much as possible uncensored forum. But there has to be a line. We all can avoid the name calling. I’ve certainly wanted to call people names at times, but I have refrained. You need to as well. You bring good discussion to the site. I don’t want you banned anymore than anyone else does. So, feel free to discuss and debate. Just avoid the name calling. If you really feel like you need to call me names, just e-mail me and cut loose. Just don’t pollute the site with it.

I don’t quote those things as fact because I don’t believe them to be.