MLBTR on Derek Lowe
Do we have any interest in Derek Lowe in the offseason? Why or why not?
It seems to me he'd be a good back of the rotation fit for us, but I'm probably basing too much on past performance and not enough on statistacal evidence or projections.
This is my first post so be gentle!
over 3 years ago
Grace's Dad
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No
He’s too old, and will be too expensive
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
And he'll want too many guaranteed years given his age
He’s a good pitcher. He should still be pretty good next year. But beyond that? And he’s an extreme groundball pitcher, which means that his performance is greatly affected by the quality of the IF defense. And the Royals IF defense isn’t good. Doesn’t seem like a good fit.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 5, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
He'll want to go to a contender
He’s near the end of the line.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
maybe
he seems pretty durable and GB pitchers tend to age better imo. plus, if you go to his splits page on bb ref, he is consistent in virtually every situation, which is a good sign as problems often show up there first.
like with everything in free agency, depends on dollars and years, definitely worth pursuing, but no reason to spend too much on him
Lowe might be the best bet of the free agent pitchers to earn his salary (non-bargain bin division)
Lowe might not be a fit with the Royals, but he is underrated and could turn out to be a pretty good pickup for someone. He is a risk at his age, but he is durable and as Zeppelin noted, sinkerballers tend to age fairly well. It also should help keep his salary and number of years down. He is an extreme groundball pitcher (which keeps the HRs and line drives down — check out his year by year LD%), he has great command, and still misses bats.
I'd definitely take him on a two year deal
1. He might be a good mentor for Hochevar given their similar pitching style.
2. He’s still pretty dang good.
3. His deal would be up by the time Cortes, Wood, and maybe a few others are ready to be full time starters.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
I AGREE!!
I mentioned in a post a few days ago that I thought he’d be almost perfect for us based on our HUGE field and young staff. He would be an incredible mentor. Lowe knows he’s almost done so he is looking to invest insome young. Perfect match… Luke Hochevar! Hmmm…. We might have to go for 3 years to get him. I think he’d be strong for at least the first two. If he’s struggling that third year, we could get rid of him or trade him. We could even tack on a mutual option for the last year with a $500K or less buyout.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
The third year
If he’s struggling in the third year, who would trade for him? Teams trade for rentals like that when they are contending and the player is performing well. Are you willing to go 3/30 on a guy of his age?
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 5, 2008 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah... someone would take him and if not, we get two good years out of him and he makes Hoch
a much better pitcher by sharing knowledge. I think that’s worth it in itself.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Why would someone take him?
If he’s in the last year of his contract and not pitching well, why would a contender trade for him? Contenders want someone they are confident will help immediately. If he’s having a bad year, they aren’t going to want him.
And people talk about him helping Hochevar like this is guaranteed. If you have a young sinkerballer and you bring in a veteran sinkerballer, is he definitely going to teach/help/train/mentor the younger player? We have no idea. His mere presence doesn’t necessarily make Hochevar better. This benefit is highly speculative at best.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 6, 2008 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I've seen teams do stupider things in the last several years....
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
It is very rare for a contending team to trade at midseason for a player who is having a bad year
particularly when that player is owed millions on his contract. One shouldn’t think this is something that is likely to happen. It is very unlikely.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 6, 2008 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions
rare but done
we went after JoGui, didn’t we?
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Huh?
We’re talking about a midseason trade. Did the Royals make a midseason trade for Guillen?
Give me some examples of when a contending team has traded at midseason for a guy with millions left on his contract who is having a bad season.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 6, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, but I had to give you the stupidest signing ever.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
I haven't followed trades and salaries in depth for very long. Someone else will know one off the top of their head I'm sure.
I think CC might have fit into that category this year. He wasn’t having a CC type season.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
not to mention you didn't have nearly as much contract dumping like we have now.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
The examples are very, very few and very, very far between
And the reason is pretty obvious. If you are trading someone for a pennant race, why would you trade for someone who is having a bad season. So let’s not pretend that Lowe would be tradable in the last year of his contract if he was having a bad year. Could it happen? Yeah, and I could win the lottery. It’s just damned unlikely, and isn’t something we should gamble on.
And CC as an example this year? He had a 3.83 ERA when traded. I could list other, more important stats, but they would say the same thing. He was pitching at least like a good #2 SP. If Lowe is pitching like a good #2 SP in the last year of his contract, he’d be very tradable too.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 6, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
That doesn't really work
Give me some examples of when a contending team has traded at midseason for a guy with millions left on his contract who is having a bad season.
Traded to a contending team? Yes
Midseason trade? Yes
Having a bad year? I suppose, but still useful.
Millions left on his contract? No. He only costs the Phillies a little over $1M this season. And the biggest difference between the hypothetical Lowe trade and this one is that we’re talking about Lowe having an expiring contract. Blanton two more years of team control after this one. If Lowe were a young, inexpensive guy under team control for 2 1/2 years, then yes he’d be tradable? But he’s none of those things.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 6, 2008 6:45 PM EDT up reply actions
This is why I asked others for help.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Please
Now you’re just being silly.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 6, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Lots of teams are going to offer him two years
How much would you give him per year? We’re going to have to outbid everybody else. That means either three years for a lot of money each year or two years for a hell of a lot of money per year.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by Scott McKinney on Sep 5, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I’d rather spend that hell of a lot of money on a COFer, or maybe on Furcal if we decide to cut bait on Callaspo.
Even if we dont Cut bait on Callaspo
We could start Gordan in left, Furcal, at short , Aviles at third, Callaspo at second, thats not too bad.
Go Royals!
I hope we don't give up on Gordon at 3B yet.
In this weak OF FA year, I’d rather get a solid SP and Furcal. We can address the corner OF position next offseason because we can only do so much at a time.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
Anyone see Lowe's start last night?
W, 8 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K. Dirty.
Oh, and Ethier went 5-5. Let’s trade Grienke to LA for a bunch and sign Derek Lowe. That makes us WAY better.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
I was looking through old Sickel's stuff....
Found this on Hochevar. Compared to Derek Lowe in the posts and some other GB pitcher’s. I think this helps to support our argument for DLowe.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/7/2/563797/thinking-about-luke-hochev
forgot the link.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
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