I'm guardedly optimistic of the Royals in 2009, but I'm not sure exactly what to expect from this team. As some on this site have noted, this team has an outside shot at 2nd place in the AL Central but could easily finish in any slot lower and are more likely to finish last than 10 games above .500. A lot will depend on injuries, player development, and how injuries shake out. I need more Royals fodder to ponder, so let's consider some questions that relate to those categories. I have ready-made answers in my brain but would appreciate to hear how the RR community takes on these topics.

Question #1 - Player Development

To improve upon last year's finish, the Royals will likely need at least one young starting pitcher and one young hitter to take a huge step forward in 2009 from average to very good.  Of the young pitchers, Davies, Hochevar, Bannister, who is most likely to do so?  What about the hitters, Gordon, Butler, Teahen, Callaspo?

My answer: It's possible that all of these players could stand pat or be even worse than last season, but I think someone from each group is poised to greatly improve.  Of the pitchers, I would select Bannister.  We all know of his intelligence and I expect him to be closer to 2007-esque form with a lot of hard work and self-reflection in the offseason, not to mention some better luck on balls hit in play.  The acquisition of Crisp should help him as well.  I don't trust Hochevar yet; I think he will be a #3 starter someday but he needs more experience.  I want to see Davies sustain success for a longer period than 5-6 starts before I feel comfortable. 

Of the hitters, I've been anticipating a Gordon breakout for two years now and I'm sticking to it.  The near-.400 OBP post-All Star break and drastic improvement against LHP makes this one much easier.  In order for the Royals to contend next season I really think Gordon needs to take a step towards stardom. A .275/.380/.500 season may be optimistic but is well-within reason.

Question  #2 - Offseason Acquisitions

Dayton Moore was no doubt one of the most active GM's this offseason, trading young, cheap relievers for established position players and replenishing a bullpen with high-priced veterans.  Of the newly acquired players, Jacobs, Crisp, Farnsworth, Waechter, and HoRam, who are we going to be most pleased with, not now but at the end of 2009?

My answer:  I'm as disappointed with the amount of money thrown at Farnsworth as everyone else, but I think he will end up surprising us as a good RH set-up man for Soria.  If there is one thing I have learned, GMDM knows how to build a bullpen and, more importantly, Bob McClure knows how to take a cast-off power arm and make it effective out of the bullpen. Granted, I'm putting a lot of faith in the brantrust here, but Farnswoth still has the stuff to be an effective power reliever (95 mph fastball and a hard slider).  A season similar to Nunez or Bale at their best before injury would not surprise me. 

Question #3 - Offseason Acquisitions Pt. 2

Is Dayton Moore done wheeling and dealing until April?

My answer:  I think so.  The Royals are above their payroll target and due to the uncertainty of today's economic climate this year's FA signings are going to take much longer to sort out than usual.  It's no secret that Dayton wants to trade Guillen but there is ZERO chance that he is able to trade him and get someone reasonable in return by Opening Day.  The most we will see between now and April are additional spring training signings and possibly a waiver wire acquisition or two.  I hope that Dayton is able to find some additional starting pitching insurance somewhere.

Question #4 - the 25-man roster

Who on the 25-man roster at the end of 2008 is least likely to be in a Royals uniform on Opening Day?

My answer: My heart hopes for Pena or Gload but I think the braintrust values whatever it is they perceive these two as providing more than I do.  They will start the season on the 25-man as reserves.  So, I'm going to go with Esteban German here.  He had a disappointing 2008 season and never seemed to find a niche with Treyball.  If the Royals can't trade Guillen, Teahen becomes the primary supersub which means that someone else has to go.  I don't see where German fits in the Royals plans.

Question #5 - Back to the Bullpen

The Royals have a surplus of relief pitchers at the moment, carrying 12 viable candidates on the 40-man (Bale, Farnswoth, Gobble, Lowery, Mahay, Peralta, HoRam, Rosa, Soria, Tejeda, Waechter) and inviting some intriguing non-roster candidates to Spring Training (Lenny DiNardo, Franquelis Osoria, Duckworth, Yabuta, and Oscar Villareal).  They can carry seven of these guys maximum when the regular season opens.  Who gets a spot?

My answer:  The way I see it, there are three guaranteed occurences here.  One, Soria, Farnswoth and Mahay start the season on the 25-man.  Two, at least one would be favorite to win a spot will get hurt and start the season on the DL or in rehab in Omaha.  Three, at least one NRI makes the squad.  This happens nearly every season.  So, taking those three things into account, here is my MLB bullpen projection for Opening Day 2009.

Soria, Farnsworth, Mahay, Bale, Waechter, Tejeda, Villareal.  Either Tejeda or Gobble or both start the season on the DL. Rosa starts 2009 in Omaha.

Question #6 - Happy New Year

Which current Royal would you most like to ring in the New Year with?  

My answer:  I've thought about this one a lot.  Do I enjoy a gritty New Year with Ross Gload, or go for a pretty boy one with DDJ?  Do I get into fights with random guys in Westport with a blacked out, amped up Kyle Farnsworth or do I get a Chipote burrito with Zack Greinke and then go back to his apartment to watch Aqua Teen Hunger Force?  Such a tough question.  But I'm not going with any of the above.  I would like to ring in the New Year with Miguel Olivo.  In interviews he seems like a fun-loving guy but someone who can definitely be an enforcer if some idiot at a party tries to start something aggressive with your crew. He's also Tony Pena's second cousin, which makes me think that he knows how to have a good time on the town in KC.  It's in his genes.