(Perhaps) the 20 Most Valuable Single Season Performances by Royals Starting Pitchers
I thought this was something a bit more positive that we could all enjoy. Yes, it is connected with my latest Driveline article on pitcher valuation, but I figure if I add a little extra sugar on top for my Royals Review Peeps (tm), it doesn't count as spam.
Anyway, you can learn more about how I value pitchers by reading the article (there's a bit more sugar at the end for Royals fans in the section on tRA). While I haven't incorporated park factors into my database yet, since replacement level is derived from league average, and runs --> wins conversion is custom for each year in my database, it is pretty well adjusted to era. "fe2WAR" is just the dumb name I came up with for averaging FIP-RAR and ERA-WAR, which I then convert to wins.
I like Zack, but as you can see, perhaps the Saberhagen comparisons are a bit premature... some pretty incredible seasons in there. Much more to discuss there, I imagine.
Note that this is just starting pitchers -- I have a way to incorporate leverage, but it isn't straightforward in terms of mixing leveraged and un-leveraged value in my system, at least not yet. But if we did count it for relievers, I'm pretty sure that at least one or two of Quisenberry's awesome seasons would be in there. But I'll save that for another time.
I'm also going to revisit this using BaseRuns-based pitching stats, but that will come later. Enjoy, disagree, discuss!
9 months ago
devil_fingers
15 comments
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Comments
Interesting stuff
Bud Black. Hilarious. I have a feeling we’ll be hearing more about him very shortly.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 13, 2009 3:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
It seems like this is not adjusted for year/era
There’s lots of representation from the late 70’s, early 80’s. It seems like pitching in that era was very different from the late 90’s or even today.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 13, 2009 3:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
i think it should be noted that Zack is definitely being penalized for his era....
he was about as durable as can be, but was not allowed to go nearly as deep into games as the pitchers on the list were. He’s 50 innings short of most guys on that list.
NYRoyal—is it possible that the reason there arent many pitchers on the list from the 90’s or today b/c we just havent really had any good pitchers? Ape had a few good years, Cone was a stud while he was here…but other than that, Paul Byrd? Rosado? The system may still be skewed towards the 70s and 80s, but its also entirely possible that we’ve just had really shitty pitching for the last 20 years.
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2009 4:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Of course
NYRoyal—is it possible that the reason there arent many pitchers on the list from the 90’s or today b/c we just havent really had any good pitchers? Ape had a few good years, Cone was a stud while he was here
Even a list appropriately adjusted for year/era is going to be heavy with guys like Saberhagen, Leonard and others from the 70’s/80’s. And there was a big dry spell there for a while in the 21st century. I just think that this kind of adjustment would appropriately represent the performance of guys like Cone, Appier, and Greinke, and might get them more representation on the list.
The immoderate moderator
by NYRoyal on Jan 13, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah...i can see those few seasons possibly being up a little bit higher on the list as well...
but its just damn depressing that outside of ape for like 5 years, cone for 2 and zack for 2 good seasons starting, we havent had anyone else worth mentioning in nearly 20 years.
oh…and the Cone Cy Young season also would be up there were it not for the strike season.
side note that i’ve never noticed before, but does anyone know a particular reason why Cones K numbers were so much lower in KC than in his pre and post kc career?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Love your work d_f but..............
where did they come up with that name ‘Driveline Mechanics’? Sounds like a Peterbuilt training film. No offense.
by Steve Hovley on Jan 13, 2009 7:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I think
Driveline Mechanics is that auto shop down on 18th and Broadway.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jan 13, 2009 10:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Adjusting for period
Hey…. Just read this stuff on my way home from finally breaking down and letting my wife buy me a Blackberry… she wanted me to get a cell phone, and I didn’t want to, so I think that she bribed me with a “toy.” Too bad SBNation doesn’t allow commenting on their mobile sites, yet, or I’d totally be pulling a Stephen A. Smith.
I understand why people feel the way they do, and I admit that I need to find a list of historical park factors that is easily importable into MySQL (I admit — I’m too lazy to go to B-R and type in park factors for every year for every team in existence from 1871-2008 manually).
Have said that, RAR/WAR does adjust for era in that it bases replacement level at Rate Stat (ERA/FIP/Whatever) at 1285 of league average. So the further up the player is from league average, the better he will be.
In 2008, the lgERA was 4.36. Greinke had an ERA of 3.47, or about 126% of league average.
In 1989, the lgERA was 3.89…and Saberhagen had an ERA of 2.16, or about 181% of league average.
These numbers aren’t that far off from the baseball-reference park-adjusted ERA+s of each man — for Greinke in 2008 — 123, for Sabes in 1989 —180.
As for number of innings, well, yeah, I guess I’d have to say that, for better or worse in the long run for the pitcher’s career health and the franchises, pitchers were used in a way that gave them more chances to be valuable (again, whether that was a good idea short- or long-term or not is a another issue). As we see, my numbers do a good job of adjusting the rate stats for the era, and thus for the relative value of that rate stat. When you add in the fact that Saberhagen was allowed to pitch 60 more innings.
Moreover, keep in mind we’re talking about single season value, not ability. In the 2008 AL, about 10.1 runs = a win. In the 1989 AL, it was about 9.5 Thus, each run scored/saved has more marginal value.
It’s not as if no pitchers these days come close to beingn 8 wins above replacement. Look at my top 50 list. Both Halladay and Lee are at about 7 WAR apiece according to “fe2RAR” or whatever. I did that in runs so that I wouldn’t have to get into the big explanation, but it’s not as if inthe “offensive era” fo the late 90s or whatever, there weren’t dominant performances recognized by this method:
1997 Clemens 10.22 feWAR (McCready magic?)
1998 Clemens 7.99
1999 Pedro 9.6
2000 Pedro 9.34
and a number of guys around 7 almost every year in the AL….
Anyway, the truth of the matter is that Kansas City’s pitching probably just hasn’t been that great. Yes, Zack and Meche did have good years this year. But no, they weren’t in the same league as Hallady or Lee, really, but few were. Just as few were in the same league as Brett Saberhagen in 1989.
Anyway, I hope to revisit this with BaseRuns, and hopefully park factors incorporated, as well.
Thanks for the comments. Cheers, all!
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Jan 13, 2009 11:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
before i read this....
you didnt have a cell phone?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2009 11:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
no, I don't like being at everyone's beck and call
my wife had one
we only have one car, so I can’t go far
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Jan 13, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
interesting....
very interesting stuff to make the days go by in the offseason…
is it bad that i’d almost rather continue reading stuff like this than have to suffer through kyle farnsworth 8th innings during baseball season?
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
if it is bad
then I’m definitely going to the bad place for writing it
I guess I thought everyone would be happy to see some of the badasses that have pitched for the Royals…
Anything over 6 WAR is awesome in any era. Frankly, people shouldn’t be pitching about a “4”
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by devil_fingers on Jan 13, 2009 11:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
















