Outside Perspective on the Royals

What are the Royals doing? A Pirates fan asks.

10 months ago royalsreview 39 comments 0 recs |

Comments

I almost stopped reading...

after the writer said that the Bale was a good signing by Moore.

Though to be fair, the author has a point. It isn’t anything most of us haven’t already heard, but it is nonetheless worth reading.

by DarthYoshi on Jan 13, 2009 10:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

he has shown a good punch in his game

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jan 13, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You’re right; “good” was perhaps a bit strong, so I downgraded him to “harmless.”

by Charlie on Jan 13, 2009 10:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Have you seen Bale's stats beyond ERA?

They are pretty good. And stats like FIP and tRA are actually quite meaningful. ERA on the other hand…

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 14, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Bale's peripherals with the Royals have been lousy

2007: 10.1 H/9 and 3.8 BB/9. In his defense, his K/9 rate was quite good. But in 2008, by contrast (and granted, it’s a small sample size, but that is his own damn fault), the K/9 rate plummeted, with the H/9 rate remaining pretty static.

But beyond that, we paid $8 mil over two years for roughly 57 innings of slightly above average relief pitching. I’m not sure how in any realistic universe that constitutes a good signing. Even if Bale were to have remained healthy and maintained similar stats, we still probably overpaid for him, given the fungibility of relievers.

by DarthYoshi on Jan 14, 2009 12:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, they haven't been lousy

First, if you’re looking at H/9, you’re looking at a shitty metric. Pitchers have little control over what happens to balls put in play. Look at LD% if you’re interested in that. More to the point, look at the things the pitcher has control over, like K’s, BB’s and HR’s. And then you can look at metrics which take all of those into account, like FIP, which show him to have been pretty good.

2007 2.81 FIP
2008 3.24 FIP

FIP is scaled like ERA, with 4.50 as the average. So 2.81 and 3.24 are very, very good. His LD% has been fairly high, but that is mitigated significantly by his low FB% and high GB%.

You can also look at a metric called tRA which is like FIP but takes into account more batted ball data.

2007 3.15 tRA (as a reliever)
2008 1.85 tRA (as a reliever)
2008 4.27 tRA (as a starter)

The average tRA for 2008 was about 4.85. So yeah, he’s been quite good for the Royals. And these aren’t just some random stats I pulled out of my ass. These are probably the two best metrics for evaluating pitching performance.

But beyond that, we paid $8 mil over two years for roughly 57 innings of slightly above average relief pitching. I’m not sure how in any realistic universe that constitutes a good signing.

Actually the Royals paid $4M ($1.8 in 2007 and $2.2 in 2008). The injuries have been a problem in that they limited his playing time. But the Royals got their money worth from him. Middle relievers almost always add very few wins to their team. Fangraphs shows that Bale added 1 win above replacement level in 2007 and .6 in 2008, which are worth $4.2M and $2.6M, respectively, for a total of $6.8M.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 14, 2009 1:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A bit more to give a complete picture

Bale had some good batted ball luck in 2008 and poor batted ball luck in 2007. He had very good luck with regard to HR/FB in both years. But if you normalize for luck, his excellent numbers above (at least as a reliever) change to at least good.

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 14, 2009 1:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But pitchers have control of the pitches they throw and the locations.

And too many meat pitches equals a higher H/9 rate. And being wild and not sure where the ball is going equals a lot of BB/9. And being wild also leads to fat pitches because you just try to throw a strike which leads to a hit which leads to a higher H/9 which makes you nibble which leads to a higher BB/9 which leads to just trying to throw a strike which leads to meat which leads to a higher H/9 which leads to even more nibling which leads to a higher BB/9 which leads to punching a door.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Jan 14, 2009 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

to get the full humor of the above post

You have to read the punching a door like Farley would say a van down by the RIVER.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Jan 14, 2009 8:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Use the batted ball data instead of H/9 to get a more accurate evaluation of the pitcher

But pitchers have control of the pitches they throw and the locations.
And too many meat pitches equals a higher H/9 rate.

Pitchers certainly have an effect on how well the ball gets hit — is it a line drive, fly ball, or groundball? — but once the ball leaves the hitter’s bat, the pitcher has zero control of what happens next and whether the ball becomes a hit or an out (pitcher fielding plays excluded). From running years and years of data, we know that line drives go for a hit about 75% of the time, while groundballs and flyballs only go for hits about 25% (groundballs are slightly higher and flyballs slightly lower). Pitchers who give up lots of line drives are having trouble with command within the strike zone (giving up 20 % line drives is about average, while 23 % is bad). The batted ball data (LD %, GB %, FB %) is readily available. So instead of looking at H/9, which depends largely on factors completely outside the pitcher’s control, look at the component over which the pitcher has a great amount control — the rate at which the pitcher allowed line drives, flyballs, or groundballs.

by Gopherballs on Jan 14, 2009 12:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think the scientific term for this

is called getting served.

Well done, sir. I stand corrected.

by DarthYoshi on Jan 14, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

some one has to post it

At least you didn’t’ get F—ed in the A—!

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by devil_fingers on Jan 14, 2009 11:34 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so, what you're saying....is that the john bale signing is like the kyle farnsworth with upside?

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jan 14, 2009 2:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Different in that it is was less than half the money for more than twice the likely performance

And the Bale re-signing was a steal. Moore’s best move of the offseason (and I know that’s not saying much).

The immoderate moderator

by NYRoyal on Jan 14, 2009 2:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I love the wording you used.

Likely. That’s why we play the season on paper.

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Jan 14, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Would you rather him say that projections are a certainty?

If you’re one of the “you have to wait until the games are played to evaluate anything” crowd, then why are you even commenting in the offseason? Shouldn’t you be waiting until at least Opening Day?

"I am sick and tired of [unintelligible] up with every [BLEEP]ing thing. No [BLEEP] from you guys, no [BLEEP] from you [BLEEP]ing players. And they can do any [BLEEP]ing thing they want to do. I’m sick and tired of all this bull[BLEEP]. Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 14, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I know I am

C. C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, and A. J. Burnett are pretty good players, but I’m not ready to say that Yanks are contenders until they actually contend in the East. I’d say at this point the Orioles have every bit the chance to win that the Yanks, Sox, or Rays.

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by devil_fingers on Jan 14, 2009 10:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You are converting individual projections and placing them on a team as a whole

You don’t need projections to figure out the Yanks, Sox and Rays will be better than the Orioles or Jays. Projections are slightly more accurate than predictions but neither are very accurate on an individual player bases. Projections get better the longer players play they probably prove very inaccurate on younger players. They’ve been wrong on Teahen most of his career but will probably get closer the longer he playes. How accurate were they about Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, etc? Does that make them good or just more educated? I can watch Shaq shoot a 1000 free throws and project that he will shoot around 50%, what kind of data would I shoot out if I saw him shoot 10 on a good day?

The point is some people(maybe just me) in here are tired of you guys quoting them like truth. PECOTA got the Rays right last year. What did CHONE, James and Marcel say? Did they all get it right? You can’t use all four as a frame of reference about projections being accurate. Herbstreit predicted Florida to win the national championship prior to the season so does all of ESPN get the credit?

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Jan 14, 2009 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good grief

The point is some people(maybe just me) in here are tired of you guys quoting them like truth.

The problem here is you are inferring something that no one has ever said. No one seriously suggests that the projections are certainties — they are probabilities. If you do not appreciate the difference, here is a nice read that made the rounds last year.

Good projection systems are useful because year after year, they have provided more accurate expected ranges of performance than doing a simple regression analysis (like Marcels, which does quite well with players with 3 full years of MLB stats) and a lot better than just taking the player’s last season performance or pulling numbers out of your ass. The projection systems run 1000+ players, and by the nature of things (a small ball thrown at high speeds getting hit by a thin rounded stick is going to produce its share of random results, and players are going to get injured, etc.), you are going to be able to find a hundred or more players where the actual results fall outside the middle of the projection’s range. But for the majority, the performance ends up on the bendy part of the probability curve.

by Gopherballs on Jan 14, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone saying that ANY projection system (or even combination of systems) is somehow an absolute certainty. They are great tools to assist in predicting the most likely probability (or range of probabilties). In that way, they are good for establishing realistic expectations for teams and individual players.

Bottom line, they give us more to talk about and analyze until pitchers and catchers report.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 14, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you needed this --

google image search + good grief, no “peanuts” or “charlie brown” needed

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by devil_fingers on Jan 14, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I hate it when fans from other teams pick apart GMDM's moves

that’s our job, not theirs!

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jan 13, 2009 10:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

especially when its the fucking pirates

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2009 11:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and that's humiliating enough

given that they have a kick-ass front office

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by devil_fingers on Jan 13, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’ve never understood this point of view. I don’t make the decisions for the Pirates, I just write about them… why should that have any bearing on my commentary about other teams?

by Charlie on Jan 13, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I can't speak for the others

but I think we’re just joking, after feeling beaten down by the Royals FO and their …curious… offseason decisions.

Congratulations on having a GM who seems smart and forward thinking. I’m interested to know what that’s like.

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by devil_fingers on Jan 13, 2009 11:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it might be that we are hoping that people from other teams

will disagree with our somewhat negative views of the offseason moves and show us that we are wrong…

The concept of progress acts as a protective mechanism to shield us from the terrors of the future. - Collected sayings of Muad'Dib

by buddyball on Jan 13, 2009 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah. That’s cool. I’ve experienced that exact reaction countless times from fans of other teams (although not, for the most part, from SB Nation communities) and had it be dead serious, so maybe that made me a bit defensive).

Pirates fans’ opinions of Coonelly and Huntington are mostly very negative so far, surprisingly. In one year, BD has gone from being known for being incredibly unfair and negative about management to being known for being incredibly unfair to critics of the team. It’s been weird. But yeah, it’s nice to have a couple guys in charge who seem to know what they’re doing, even if the fanbase has been slow to get on the bandwagon.

by Charlie on Jan 13, 2009 11:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

definitely was not attacking you...just making a joke that even fans from a team....

like the Pirates can see how pathetic our organization is

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jan 13, 2009 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They can't do that to our pledges...

Only WE can do that to our pledges!

Bucs Dugout has become Douglas C. Niedermayer.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 13, 2009 11:05 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs

well played, and rec'd

by DarthYoshi on Jan 14, 2009 12:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

er, this was supposed to be in response to the Niedermeyer post

by DarthYoshi on Jan 14, 2009 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They included Trades too

LaRue-Bad

Bale- if he doesn’t punch the door it is probably a above average move

Riske- turned into Montgomery so not bad

McDougal – Cortes and Lumsden-Paraz – jury still out but not running McD out there for years is worthy of a average move

Dotel-good performance turned into Davies so not bad

Meche-Good

Yabuta- I’m gonna put this one on GMDM, Trey’s move really

Guillen-Bad

Mahay- His actual runs allowed was above average while his FIP wasn’t good so I’ll say average

Olivo- Last year good, this year jury is out

Tomko- Bad

Nunez trade—-Jury is out? Jacobs could be an upgrade plus we don’t know if Nunez is 100% healthy and did GMDM hold Rosa out or did the Marlins not want him?

De La Rosa-RamRam-Crisp—-One good year of performance out of RamRam plus a defensive minded centerfield probably good overall

Farny—Bad

Waechter — Worthy of average

HoRam—- 1.9M plus Paulo Orlando=probably slightly overpaid by 900k

The Spork— overpaid below average

Soria— Great !!!

Fully utilizing the Dominican and the Draft has been a solid A just by talent.

Obviously every move isn’t great but what GM doesn’t make mistakes especially in his first time at GM.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Jan 14, 2009 2:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

it isnt that every GM doesnt make mistakes...

it is that, aside from the Crisp trade (which I have grown progressively optimistic on) and perhaps the relatively minor Waechter signing, GMDM’s performance this season has been a comedy of errors. It has been Allard Baird-like. It has been so so painful to watch. It is that all these errors are coming in a short span of time, rather than being spread out over a longer tenure. Barring a Greinke extension, Moore gets a D this offseason, if not a D-. The Crisp trade alone prevents it from being an F.

by DarthYoshi on Jan 14, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We'll see

I know everyone is writing off the Jacobs deal but I believe Trey will use him correctly. That combined with Shealy/Butler could be the first .800-850 OPS 1b/DH combo KC has had since ‘05. Also I have decided to lean towards liking the Bloomquist signing. He isn’t good offensively but looking at Crisp and DDJ’s career it is almost a given that during the season one or both of those guys will be injured. Bloomquist gives KC a better defensive outfield/2b substitute in the late innings than they had last year(German/Gload) his 1.5M hardly locks them into next year. Maybe GMDM didn’t want to get stuck using German/Gload again in the OF.

Olivo is no more overpaid than Buck is about to be.
HoRam is overpaid by about a 1-1.3M hardly a cripple if you just wanted to lock him up because your pitching coach wanted him and was familiar with him.

Obviously those deals will take Trey Hillman using them correctly but maybe I feel like it is too early to chalk Trey up as a failure. There are alot of good coaches that have learned from their mistakes hopefully Trey can be one of those guys too.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Jan 14, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't have a lot of faith in Trey using Jacobs correctly

Unless Gload is given his walking papers, I have to think that Hillman will overplay him, taking away at-bats against RH pitchers from Jacobs. Given the reality of the situation, what would probably be best, imo, is the following scenario:

Against LH pitchers: Butler DH’s, Shealy plays 1b.
Against RH pitchers: Jacobs DH’s, Butler plays 1b with Shealy as a defensive sub.
If Shealy starts batting like it is 2007, he can be dropped in favor of Kila. And Gload is given the ol’ heave-ho.

Naturally, that means that such a scenario will never, ever happen.

And if Bloomquist means that TPJ is finally shown the door (as Mellinger thinks), then all the better. But I think most of us don’t get why in the hell Willie Ballgame was given a second year on his contract. I almost get bringing him in for a year on the cheap, because after Grudz got injured for the final time, we had no good defensive option for the middle infield. But we have options for the 4th OF slot. We’ll have Teahen. We’ll have Maier. I don’t think we signed Bloomquist to play OF.

And I have very little faith in Hillman using his players correctly in terms of pitching-batting matchups. See also: Yobble, Yimmy. To me, stuff like that wasn’t a matter of inexperience. Everybody and their mother knew going into the year that Yimmy was a LOOGY and nothing else. For whatever reason, Hillman failed to grasp that. Buddy Bell actually did a pretty good job of using Yimmy. Hillman, by comparison, was abysmal at that. Just one example.

by DarthYoshi on Jan 15, 2009 11:46 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RR mode ON

“Only the Royals, the team that somehow made up hate then love Ryan Shealy, could turn around and make us hate then love Buddy Bell.”

/RR mode

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by devil_fingers on Jan 15, 2009 11:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But we have options for the 4th OF slot. We’ll have Teahen. We’ll have Maier. I don’t think we signed Bloomquist to play OF

Maier probably doesn’t make the bench. You’ve got Teahen but what do you do when Coco or DDJ is hurt? Replacing Guillen with The Spork like they did towards the end of the year last year is better than leaving JoGui in to play OF in high leverage late inning streteches.

Against RH Pitchers: Better would be 1b Shealy/DH Jacobs unless BamBam can show improvement versus Right handers.

I don’t know if Trey believes in using LOOGY’s. If he doesn’t then getting rid of Yimmy is a must. Also take a look at Yimmy’s career prior to the ‘08 season Yimmy’s splits weren’t very great. Trey had no experience with these guys so it does take sometime to learn what they do best. Having guys like Mahay and Bale in the pen allows the manager to not really use LOOGY matchups as they can get guys out on both sides of the plate.

To pigeonhole Trey after one season is wrong on our part.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Jan 15, 2009 2:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Coco or DDJ is hurt...

simple. Move the other to CF, and let Guillen and Teabag patrol the corners.

I also think it is way too early to sentence BamBam to platoon duty. The guy is 22, for pete’s sake. He’ll get better. Alex Gordon has massive platoon splits and nobody talks about a 3b platoon.

And I’m not trying to pigeonhole Hillman, I just think he made some seriously boneheaded decisions during his first year. And I hope those decisions will not be repeated in future years.

by DarthYoshi on Jan 15, 2009 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs