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18 Thoughts On Will McDonald's "Around The Majors" Discussion

1.  Why the gratuitous opening swipe, by the hosts, at Dayton Moore via Michael Young?  BS.  Moore's not been shown to give big contracts for one or two good seasons.  In fact, the criticism is that he gives too big of contracts for mediocre seasons by average vets!

2.  CoCo Crisp "could" be seen as a good move?  Most everyone liked that one, or at least agreed with its logic.

3.  It's been nasty recently in the Royals blogsophere.  That's right.  Unnecessarily so.

4.  Why is veteran leadership and chemistry so undervalued in "the blogosphere"?

5.  General Observation:  If every single FA move is evaluated on OBP and, well, OBP is a valued skill among ML teams, then those players are going to necessarily be higher priced---and hence mostly out of the Royals price range.  So valuing OBP while not signing those FAs is not necessarily contradictory so long as your org is accumulating those guys via drafts and trades.  Are we drafting guys with at least the beginnings of OBP skills?  Hosmer?  Moustakas?  Gordon fits the bill.

6.  Judging what the Royals have done by the Burrell deal is, at best, acontextual.  The economic climate changed midway through the offseason.  Sure, he could've waited for that, but the Royals have to be aggressive early to get the guys they want.

7.  General question:  When the Royals receive ML profit sharing money, does it have to apply to the 40-man roster, or can it be spent in player development/drafts?

8.  Jacobs represents step 1, of many more moves to come, I think, in the quest to make the Royals at least major league average in terms of HR power.  And this is a necessary quest, almost as important as OBP.  It's important enough that OBP can be sacrificed with one or two position players to complete the quest---at least until your powerful OBP draft guys percolate up.

9.  Will McDonald has a nice radio voice.

10.  Arbuckle was definitely our most important off-season acquisition for the organization, hands down.  Hopefully Arbuckle will be groomed to be Moore's replacement?  At least we'll have a succession plan.

11.  Bold prediction:  About 75% of the 2011 club's position players will have been groomed in the org.

12.  Moore is doing one of the most difficult jobs in the majors: Balancing the two conflicting goals of (1) keeping fans interested (via some winning, some window-dressing FA moves) while also (2) developing the farm.  He clearly doesn't subscribe to the theory of having yet another 100-loss season to rebuild.  We've had too many of those, and he knows the fans can only stand so much.

13.  Greinke will NEVER be traded for Francouer---at least not for Francouer as the centerpiece of any deal w/the Braves for the Greinke.  Never.

14.  Promise:  Soria will not be the one positive move that defines Moore's career as a GM.

15.  Axiom:  This year's overpayment for a free agent is another team's valued trade pick-up in two years.  Yep, only two years.

16.  Question for statheads:  Why is a high BABIP almost always considered bad for hitters?  I mean, isn't it a sign of bat control?  And how are adjustments accounted for (i.e. defensive shift thwarted)?

17.  I was bummed by the Gordon negativity.  He'll hit .300---probably this year.  And his OBP will always be .350 or better (sans 07).  But to everyone:  Gordon will NEVER be Brett.  Get over it.

18.  Nice optimistic ending!  Wow.  Excellent. - TL

3 recs | Comment 37 comments

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re: # 8

Hitting a lot of HR’s won’t do us much good if they are all solo shots.

by Warden11 on Jan 14, 2009 11:28 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

That’s we we got Crisp. And Gordon is a plus OBP guy. Yes, we need more. – TL

by timlacy on Jan 14, 2009 11:30 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And Jacobs

batting behind Guiilen. Oh… wait. The other way round, oh…. that doesn’t work either.

Moral= OBP sinks in lineup are BAD.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 14, 2009 11:41 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Crisp's career OBP is a little below league average

over that time period.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Jan 14, 2009 11:40 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

19. I like Alex Gordon, he'll be good. And even if he isn't, it has little or nothing to do with hitting .300

20. Some people need to get a sense of humor

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 14, 2009 11:32 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re #20

Aimed at me, RR, or the Gordon haters in general? On me, I’m willing to go humor as long as I know that’s in play. ;)- TL

by timlacy on Jan 14, 2009 11:36 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I just thought you were overreacting to the joke questions on the other thread

My bad for not having a sense of humor about what I mistakenly thought was your lack of sense of humor. D’oh.

Also, I’ve never thought Gordon was a .300 hitter… but that doesn’t have much to do with his offensive value. He’s a walks and power kind of guy. So yeah, no George Brett. I suppose if he becomes the next Mike Schmidt, we’ll just have to be happy with it (sigh).

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 14, 2009 11:43 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the .300 thing just kinda came out of nowhere

but i’ll stand by it

and no, my point wasn’t to say that he is going to suck, or even that I think BA is that important

it is one way of looking at his ceiling however

by royalsreview on Jan 14, 2009 1:29 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm not even arguing with you

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 14, 2009 1:31 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I bet he does too, but it will be accompanied by a power spike if he does

25+ homers, .300 avg, and OBP going up, up, and away! If not this year, then next. The young guys are why I can’t be truly disillusioned with this team even if I totally disagree with what Dayton Moore is doing (and I do).

By the way, there will be Q&A sessions with Dayton Moore at Royals Fanfest. I’d like to be there to ask him how he reconciles his belief in OBP with the guys he’s been signing over the last few years.

by AxDxMx on Jan 14, 2009 5:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It is?

Can’t say I agree. So he might not hit .300….if he hits .270/.400/.500, who cares?

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Jan 14, 2009 11:42 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

We don’t need .300; it’d just be nice. – TL

by timlacy on Jan 15, 2009 10:02 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

#10 The Arbuckle thing again...

how is he such an important move? He has exactly the same philosophy as Moore. Granted, he is probably better at it but he is not really bringing any new skillset into that front office.

Not knocking it, great move to bring in someone of his undoubted scouting skills. But that was never DM’s big problem. Don’t get the crazy man crush on him at all.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 14, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My thoughts

“Why is veteran leadership and chemistry so undervalued in "the blogosphere”?"

I think because it cannot be measured or quantified, and we as the public are not privy to whether a team has good or bad chemistry, so there is little for us to discuss. I think it is a factor, but a rather small one, and I tend to believe winning creates good chemistry, and not the other way around. The Royals have had teams that got along great – and still lost a ton of games.

“If every single FA move is evaluated on OBP and, well, OBP is a valued skill among ML teams, then those players are going to necessarily be higher priced—-and hence mostly out of the Royals price range”

Agreed. And the Royals haven’t signed any free agent hitters (other than Bloomquist), which they shouldn’t if they are truly out of their price range.

There are certainly players available via trade that have decent OBAs. Nick Swisher and Josh Willingham were both recently dealt, and not exactly for top prospects. We don’t know if they were available to us, but it certainly does show that teams are willing to deal high OBA guys, and not necessarily for top dollar.

"Judging what the Royals have done by the Burrell deal is, at best, acontextual. "

I also disagree with any criticisms that we didn’t get Burrell. We have no idea if he would be willing to play here, even if we doubled Tampa’s offer.

“When the Royals receive ML profit sharing money, does it have to apply to the 40-man roster, or can it be spent in player development/drafts?”

The Royals can do whatever they want with it, including putting it in David Glass’ pocket, which for a long time was their modus operandi.

"Moore is doing one of the most difficult jobs in the majors: Balancing the two conflicting goals of (1) keeping fans interested (via some winning, some window-dressing FA moves) while also (2) developing the farm. "

How is that different from any other MLB GM?

“Will McDonald has a nice radio voice.”

Its like silk.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 14, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

exactly

there isn’t really much teamwork in baseball, aside from a few fielding plays

by royalsreview on Jan 14, 2009 1:30 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I agree on BABIP too

Guys like Mike Aviles should be able to keep it higher than the norm based on their approach at the plate and their amounts of line drives. We’ll see how much was luck and how much was him last year.

by AxDxMx on Jan 14, 2009 5:50 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

except,

as Zeppelin pointed out long ago in his xBABIP discussions, Aviles LD% wasn’t anywhere close to high enough to sustain his 2008 performance

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 14, 2009 5:54 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice to know

But can that number change with a year of seasoning? I think his stance in the batter’s box bodes well for him as he can’t be as easily fooled with late breaking pitches. I think his LD% should go up this year helping him out with sustaining the performance level.

by AxDxMx on Jan 14, 2009 9:46 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't know

he’s 27 — that’s not a young player with a lot of years for growth

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 14, 2009 9:51 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Either way,

I am blindly on the Aviles bandwagon until he pulls a Berroa.

by Warden11 on Jan 14, 2009 10:32 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BABIP and LD% are often used together for that reason...

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Jan 14, 2009 11:43 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

16

the thought of is that players just don’t show the ability to repeat the stat without comparable LD%
Jeter always has high BABIP b/c he always has high LD%. Moreover, the amount of players who do repeat it is right in line with predicted amount based on traditional statistical distributions (at least thats what has been claimed, i haven’t verified).

if it is a function of “bat control” or defense, shouldn’t the same players be repeating it more? They don’t and that matters alot.

If there was ever a well documented “luck” stat in baseball, BABIP is it.

by ZeppelinDZ on Jan 14, 2009 12:52 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What's LD?

I don’t immediately recall that initialism. – TL

by timlacy on Jan 14, 2009 1:11 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Line Drive

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 14, 2009 1:20 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Man, am I...

…an idiot. It’s called reading, top to bottom, left to right, … . Anyway… -TL

by timlacy on Jan 14, 2009 2:13 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

10.

Arbuckle will definitely help GMDM draft college talent. Utley, Howard, Burrell were just a few of the college players that Arbuckle was responsible for. If GMDM was correct with the High School draftees that he made then KC should begin to add college talent that can skip levels and join them in the bigs.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Jan 14, 2009 3:04 PM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How Is This

Not better than 2008?

Against RHP
Crisp CF
DDJ LF
Gordon 3B
Guillen RF
Jacobs DH
Butler 1B
Aviles SS
Callaspo 2B
Olivo/Pena/Buck C

Against LHP
Crisp CF
DDJ LF
Butler DH
Guillen RF
Aviles SS
Gordon 3B
Olivo C
Callaspo 2B
Shealy 1B

Bench; Pena/Buck, Bloomquist, Shealy/Jacobs, Teahen

Sorry, I just like to do that.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 15, 2009 12:57 AM EST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

move shealy up to about 5th vs LHP

and it looks good.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 15, 2009 3:21 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How is this not better than 2008?

Because after those solid lineups stake the team to a lead, Farnsworth comes in to blow it.

"I am sick and tired of [unintelligible] up with every [BLEEP]ing thing. No [BLEEP] from you guys, no [BLEEP] from you [BLEEP]ing players. And they can do any [BLEEP]ing thing they want to do. I’m sick and tired of all this bull[BLEEP]. Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 15, 2009 10:32 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

split up the lefites, phil!!!!1111

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 15, 2009 11:42 AM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

How Many Pieces?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 15, 2009 10:48 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

107

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Jan 15, 2009 10:58 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It probably is better

But its like getting excited about the Scott Elarton signing because he replaced Jose Lima.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 15, 2009 9:58 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

At least it's good...

…on radio. Now I don’t know about a cappella or a barbershop quartet. – TL

by timlacy on Jan 18, 2009 3:01 PM EST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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