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Around SBN: Randy Moss A Raven?

18 Thoughts On Will McDonald's "Around The Majors" Discussion

1.  Why the gratuitous opening swipe, by the hosts, at Dayton Moore via Michael Young?  BS.  Moore's not been shown to give big contracts for one or two good seasons.  In fact, the criticism is that he gives too big of contracts for mediocre seasons by average vets!

2.  CoCo Crisp "could" be seen as a good move?  Most everyone liked that one, or at least agreed with its logic.

3.  It's been nasty recently in the Royals blogsophere.  That's right.  Unnecessarily so.

4.  Why is veteran leadership and chemistry so undervalued in "the blogosphere"?

5.  General Observation:  If every single FA move is evaluated on OBP and, well, OBP is a valued skill among ML teams, then those players are going to necessarily be higher priced---and hence mostly out of the Royals price range.  So valuing OBP while not signing those FAs is not necessarily contradictory so long as your org is accumulating those guys via drafts and trades.  Are we drafting guys with at least the beginnings of OBP skills?  Hosmer?  Moustakas?  Gordon fits the bill.

6.  Judging what the Royals have done by the Burrell deal is, at best, acontextual.  The economic climate changed midway through the offseason.  Sure, he could've waited for that, but the Royals have to be aggressive early to get the guys they want.

7.  General question:  When the Royals receive ML profit sharing money, does it have to apply to the 40-man roster, or can it be spent in player development/drafts?

8.  Jacobs represents step 1, of many more moves to come, I think, in the quest to make the Royals at least major league average in terms of HR power.  And this is a necessary quest, almost as important as OBP.  It's important enough that OBP can be sacrificed with one or two position players to complete the quest---at least until your powerful OBP draft guys percolate up.

9.  Will McDonald has a nice radio voice.

10.  Arbuckle was definitely our most important off-season acquisition for the organization, hands down.  Hopefully Arbuckle will be groomed to be Moore's replacement?  At least we'll have a succession plan.

11.  Bold prediction:  About 75% of the 2011 club's position players will have been groomed in the org.

12.  Moore is doing one of the most difficult jobs in the majors: Balancing the two conflicting goals of (1) keeping fans interested (via some winning, some window-dressing FA moves) while also (2) developing the farm.  He clearly doesn't subscribe to the theory of having yet another 100-loss season to rebuild.  We've had too many of those, and he knows the fans can only stand so much.

13.  Greinke will NEVER be traded for Francouer---at least not for Francouer as the centerpiece of any deal w/the Braves for the Greinke.  Never.

14.  Promise:  Soria will not be the one positive move that defines Moore's career as a GM.

15.  Axiom:  This year's overpayment for a free agent is another team's valued trade pick-up in two years.  Yep, only two years.

16.  Question for statheads:  Why is a high BABIP almost always considered bad for hitters?  I mean, isn't it a sign of bat control?  And how are adjustments accounted for (i.e. defensive shift thwarted)?

17.  I was bummed by the Gordon negativity.  He'll hit .300---probably this year.  And his OBP will always be .350 or better (sans 07).  But to everyone:  Gordon will NEVER be Brett.  Get over it.

18.  Nice optimistic ending!  Wow.  Excellent. - TL

Comment 37 comments  |  3 recs  | 

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re: # 8

Hitting a lot of HR’s won’t do us much good if they are all solo shots.

by Warden11 on Jan 14, 2009 11:28 AM EST reply actions  

+1

That’s we we got Crisp. And Gordon is a plus OBP guy. Yes, we need more. – TL

by timlacy on Jan 14, 2009 11:30 AM EST up reply actions  

And Jacobs

batting behind Guiilen. Oh… wait. The other way round, oh…. that doesn’t work either.

Moral= OBP sinks in lineup are BAD.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 14, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

Crisp's career OBP is a little below league average

over that time period.

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Jan 14, 2009 11:40 PM EST up reply actions  

19. I like Alex Gordon, he'll be good. And even if he isn't, it has little or nothing to do with hitting .300

20. Some people need to get a sense of humor

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 14, 2009 11:32 AM EST reply actions  

re #20

Aimed at me, RR, or the Gordon haters in general? On me, I’m willing to go humor as long as I know that’s in play. ;)- TL

by timlacy on Jan 14, 2009 11:36 AM EST up reply actions  

I just thought you were overreacting to the joke questions on the other thread

My bad for not having a sense of humor about what I mistakenly thought was your lack of sense of humor. D’oh.

Also, I’ve never thought Gordon was a .300 hitter… but that doesn’t have much to do with his offensive value. He’s a walks and power kind of guy. So yeah, no George Brett. I suppose if he becomes the next Mike Schmidt, we’ll just have to be happy with it (sigh).

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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 14, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions  

the .300 thing just kinda came out of nowhere

but i’ll stand by it

and no, my point wasn’t to say that he is going to suck, or even that I think BA is that important

it is one way of looking at his ceiling however

by Freneau on Jan 14, 2009 1:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not even arguing with you

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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 14, 2009 1:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I bet he does too, but it will be accompanied by a power spike if he does

25+ homers, .300 avg, and OBP going up, up, and away! If not this year, then next. The young guys are why I can’t be truly disillusioned with this team even if I totally disagree with what Dayton Moore is doing (and I do).

By the way, there will be Q&A sessions with Dayton Moore at Royals Fanfest. I’d like to be there to ask him how he reconciles his belief in OBP with the guys he’s been signing over the last few years.

by AxDxMx on Jan 14, 2009 5:46 PM EST up reply actions  

It is?

Can’t say I agree. So he might not hit .300….if he hits .270/.400/.500, who cares?

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Jan 14, 2009 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

+1

We don’t need .300; it’d just be nice. – TL

by timlacy on Jan 15, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

#10 The Arbuckle thing again...

how is he such an important move? He has exactly the same philosophy as Moore. Granted, he is probably better at it but he is not really bringing any new skillset into that front office.

Not knocking it, great move to bring in someone of his undoubted scouting skills. But that was never DM’s big problem. Don’t get the crazy man crush on him at all.

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 14, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply actions  

My thoughts

“Why is veteran leadership and chemistry so undervalued in "the blogosphere”?"

I think because it cannot be measured or quantified, and we as the public are not privy to whether a team has good or bad chemistry, so there is little for us to discuss. I think it is a factor, but a rather small one, and I tend to believe winning creates good chemistry, and not the other way around. The Royals have had teams that got along great – and still lost a ton of games.

“If every single FA move is evaluated on OBP and, well, OBP is a valued skill among ML teams, then those players are going to necessarily be higher priced—-and hence mostly out of the Royals price range”

Agreed. And the Royals haven’t signed any free agent hitters (other than Bloomquist), which they shouldn’t if they are truly out of their price range.

There are certainly players available via trade that have decent OBAs. Nick Swisher and Josh Willingham were both recently dealt, and not exactly for top prospects. We don’t know if they were available to us, but it certainly does show that teams are willing to deal high OBA guys, and not necessarily for top dollar.

"Judging what the Royals have done by the Burrell deal is, at best, acontextual. "

I also disagree with any criticisms that we didn’t get Burrell. We have no idea if he would be willing to play here, even if we doubled Tampa’s offer.

“When the Royals receive ML profit sharing money, does it have to apply to the 40-man roster, or can it be spent in player development/drafts?”

The Royals can do whatever they want with it, including putting it in David Glass’ pocket, which for a long time was their modus operandi.

"Moore is doing one of the most difficult jobs in the majors: Balancing the two conflicting goals of (1) keeping fans interested (via some winning, some window-dressing FA moves) while also (2) developing the farm. "

How is that different from any other MLB GM?

“Will McDonald has a nice radio voice.”

Its like silk.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 14, 2009 11:45 AM EST reply actions  

My thoughts on some of your thoughts...

Re #4: Because it’s very difficult, if not impossible, for bloggers and commenters to really know what’s going on in the clubhouse. By the time any of the non-insiders hear about it, clubhouse issues or chemistry is obviously already an issue because it’s been reported by the media. Also, I think clubhouse chemistry is much less important to a baseball team’s success than a football or basketball team. There is no other sport that is so based on individual performances isolated from teammates’ performances. It’s basically the opposite of a sport like football, where you need all 11 guys working together on each play to make it successful.

Re #5: Not every single (position player) FA acquisition is evaluated based upon OBP. Obviously, there is more widespread recognition that OBP is a key stat to judge in evaulating players. So, I definitely agree that higher OBP guys are going to be considered more valuable, making them more expensive, and many times putting them out of the Royals’ reach. However, you are generally not going to get a guy with a high OBP, for example, to serve as a super-utility/backup middle IF (otherwise, the guy wouldn’t be a utility/backup player). Knowing that, why do you pay 2/3.1 for a guy like Bloomquist? Especially after you’ve just re-signed German? While OBP is important, I think most commenters here judge each FA acquisition based on all the factors.

Re #6: It’s not just the Burrell deal. Moore’s moves should be judged in light of the overall FA/trade market. What about the Giambi deal? What about the Branyan deal? What about the trade opportunities for players like Willingham or Swisher? What about signing Farnsworth for the $9.25M he’s getting? What about signing Bloomquist for 2/3.1? Those signings absolutely had an impact on other opportunities. That money, and paying Jacobs and Crisp the money they are due, likely kept the Royals from offering more for Furcal. While the Burrell deal is a good example of what could have been done (although probably for another $2M or so per), it’s not the ONLY example of what could have been done.

Re #12: I agree that Moore has one of the most difficult (if not THE most difficult) jobs in MLB. If for no other reason than the mess he was handed when he started. I think he definitely wants to win more games in the short term (2009-10) until he knows the Royals have a real shot at contention. In fact, Glass may have given him a sort of offseason mandate in light of the opening of the new Kauffman. But I still don’t think that excuses many of his moves this offseason.

Re: #15: The only FA’s the Royals overpaid for will be FA’s again (unless re-signed) in two years. (Farnsworth, Bloomquist, HoRam, Waechter) In fact, the Royals’ overpayment for Farnsworth may actually KEEP him from being traded before the deadline this year or in 2010, even assuming that he actually performs well enough to make him a valued trade commodity (it doesn’t look good based on his recent history, age, etc.). On the bright side, at least the Royals aren’t obligated to pay any of them after 2010—I will give credit to Moore for sticking with that logical part of the plan. This team is not going to be laden down with albatross contracts in 2011 (unless we see a repeat of this sort of offseason in 2009-10).

Re #16: I agree that a high BABIP shouldn’t necessary be considered a negative or “lucky” statistic. For some players, it’s indicative of good bat control (like you said), and line drive ability. I think the best use of BABIP is to see how consistent it is. If a 6 year veteran has traditionally had low-to-average BABIP’s, and then suddenly has a much higher BABIP, then it’s more likely the player was just luckier that year when he made contact.

"I am sick and tired of [unintelligible] up with every [BLEEP]ing thing. No [BLEEP] from you guys, no [BLEEP] from you [BLEEP]ing players. And they can do any [BLEEP]ing thing they want to do. I’m sick and tired of all this bull[BLEEP]. Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 14, 2009 12:04 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

exactly

there isn’t really much teamwork in baseball, aside from a few fielding plays

by Freneau on Jan 14, 2009 1:30 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree on BABIP too

Guys like Mike Aviles should be able to keep it higher than the norm based on their approach at the plate and their amounts of line drives. We’ll see how much was luck and how much was him last year.

by AxDxMx on Jan 14, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions  

except,

as Zeppelin pointed out long ago in his xBABIP discussions, Aviles LD% wasn’t anywhere close to high enough to sustain his 2008 performance

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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 14, 2009 5:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Nice to know

But can that number change with a year of seasoning? I think his stance in the batter’s box bodes well for him as he can’t be as easily fooled with late breaking pitches. I think his LD% should go up this year helping him out with sustaining the performance level.

by AxDxMx on Jan 14, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know

he’s 27 — that’s not a young player with a lot of years for growth

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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 14, 2009 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Either way,

I am blindly on the Aviles bandwagon until he pulls a Berroa.

by Warden11 on Jan 14, 2009 10:32 PM EST up reply actions  

BABIP and LD% are often used together for that reason...

Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.

by NHZ on Jan 14, 2009 11:43 PM EST up reply actions  

16

the thought of is that players just don’t show the ability to repeat the stat without comparable LD%
Jeter always has high BABIP b/c he always has high LD%. Moreover, the amount of players who do repeat it is right in line with predicted amount based on traditional statistical distributions (at least thats what has been claimed, i haven’t verified).

if it is a function of “bat control” or defense, shouldn’t the same players be repeating it more? They don’t and that matters alot.

If there was ever a well documented “luck” stat in baseball, BABIP is it.

by ZeppelinDZ on Jan 14, 2009 12:52 PM EST reply actions  

What's LD?

I don’t immediately recall that initialism. – TL

by timlacy on Jan 14, 2009 1:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Line Drive

The Allard Baird of incisive internet discourse.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 14, 2009 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

Man, am I...

…an idiot. It’s called reading, top to bottom, left to right, … . Anyway… -TL

by timlacy on Jan 14, 2009 2:13 PM EST up reply actions  

10.

Arbuckle will definitely help GMDM draft college talent. Utley, Howard, Burrell were just a few of the college players that Arbuckle was responsible for. If GMDM was correct with the High School draftees that he made then KC should begin to add college talent that can skip levels and join them in the bigs.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Jan 14, 2009 3:04 PM EST reply actions  

How Is This

Not better than 2008?

Against RHP
Crisp CF
DDJ LF
Gordon 3B
Guillen RF
Jacobs DH
Butler 1B
Aviles SS
Callaspo 2B
Olivo/Pena/Buck C

Against LHP
Crisp CF
DDJ LF
Butler DH
Guillen RF
Aviles SS
Gordon 3B
Olivo C
Callaspo 2B
Shealy 1B

Bench; Pena/Buck, Bloomquist, Shealy/Jacobs, Teahen

Sorry, I just like to do that.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 15, 2009 12:57 AM EST reply actions  

move shealy up to about 5th vs LHP

and it looks good.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 15, 2009 3:21 AM EST up reply actions  

How is this not better than 2008?

Because after those solid lineups stake the team to a lead, Farnsworth comes in to blow it.

"I am sick and tired of [unintelligible] up with every [BLEEP]ing thing. No [BLEEP] from you guys, no [BLEEP] from you [BLEEP]ing players. And they can do any [BLEEP]ing thing they want to do. I’m sick and tired of all this bull[BLEEP]. Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it."

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 15, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions  

split up the lefites, phil!!!!1111

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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

How Many Pieces?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 15, 2009 10:48 PM EST up reply actions  

107

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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 10:58 PM EST up reply actions  

It probably is better

But its like getting excited about the Scott Elarton signing because he replaced Jose Lima.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 15, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

At least it's good...

…on radio. Now I don’t know about a cappella or a barbershop quartet. – TL

by timlacy on Jan 18, 2009 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

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