while his ERA was bad, defense independent stats like FIP and tRA showed that he was actually OK last year — maybe a bit below average, so, yeah, already like a 3-4 starter. The Royals crappy infield defense (other than Aviles) didn’t help. Hopefully, it will improve this year (Mike Jacobs will be Hoch’s worst enemy if he plays first a significant amount of time) with Gordon returning to at least average, or better, his very good 2007 form on defense and Aviles, who is unlikely to put in another Everettian number up, can be at least average. Some luck would help, too.

So, yes, I think Hochevar projects as at least a #4, and probably more like a #3 with some upside.

Bill James 6-10 4.95146 IP 100 K 52 BB
CHONE 5-7 4.97 114 IP 72 K 43 BB
Marcel 6-9 4.65 123 IP 78 K 44 BB

I’d say he’s a .500 pitcher with at least 20 decisions. He could get it figured out.

Like I said last year, he used his sink and run to much (because he wasn’t consistant enough to get ahead with it). Start hitters with the normal 4 seamer (unless you are in a GB needed situation) to get ahead, then use the great movement to make guys chase. Use the slider more. Change to the lefties. You know… pitching. Not just throwing and trying to get great movement because everyone is enamored with it….

All in all: He needs to become more consistent with his delivery mechanics and release point, he needs to get ahead (not challenge more because I think he already is, he just can’t keep it in the zone), and he needs to compliment his sinker with his offspeed more.

If everything connects, we’re looking at 14 wins.

Pretty easy to figure out actually

Most of baseball will be on pins and needles to await the conclusion of that spring training battle.

4.25 ERA with 11-12 wins. He had some games last year that were good until he forgot what he was doing and all of the sudden would give up 4 runs with 2 outs. If he cuts those out he will see some significant improvement.

GMDM will be on 610 am at 3:30 CST if you wanna check it out.

30 GS 181.1 IP 110 So 59 Bb 23 HR allowed 4.85 ERA if I’m doing the figuring right his FIP would be somewhere in the 4.61 range

plus now he has the power of me handshake, which cures everything.