The Honeymoon is Over
Nobody in Kansas City will be happy if 75 wins is the best that comes of this.
The honeymoon is over.
The real marriage is beginning -- for better, for worse, in Joakim times and in Gload.
about 3 years ago
djk royal
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Loved that last line.
Gload equals bad times.
speaking only for myself...
…but I do think that Mellinger is only looking at the Bloomquist signing in a vacuum when he puzzles over why it was such an infuriating signing for us by GMDM, and that he is ignoring the context of just how awful this offseason has been for Moore. Minda put it best on her blog—it’s a lot of straw, and the camel’s back is getting pretty tired.
But I also think that the honeymoon would have been close being over anyways, with how terrible Hoagie was this year.
All of that being said, hilarious post by Mellinger.
Mellinger's always been a little too much of a homer for my taste
I think it probably comes with growing up a fan (or at least semi-fan) of the team. I guess I’ve spoiled by Joe Posnanski and Jeffrey Martin (K-State beat writer). Writers who will cover things from a more neutral perspective and who are more willing to criticize issues because they didn’t grow up fan of the team they are writing about.
Rany pretty much covered that in his latest post...
when he basically used the same analogy. Mellinger’s post reflects the kind of thinking from more casual Royals fans who just read about a random signing in the Star’s breaking news one week, basically forget about it, then read about another one a few weeks later, think “oh cool, we got another player, and it’s Dayton Moore, so I’m sure he’s good.” Most people who aren’t frustrated with the Bloomquist signing have not considered the offseason in its totality (especially the fact that German was re-signed earlier to presumably do the same job as Bloomquist).
I liked the post overall, and I think he’s absolutely right that from this point forward, Moore isn’t being graded on a curve anymore. At least by all but the most optimistic, forgiving, and die-hard loyalists. The training wheels are off.
"I am sick and tired of [unintelligible] up with every [BLEEP]ing thing. No [BLEEP] from you guys, no [BLEEP] from you [BLEEP]ing players. And they can do any [BLEEP]ing thing they want to do. I’m sick and tired of all this bull[BLEEP]. Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it."
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 15, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
The thing is that the Bloomquist signing is not more straw on the camel's back
You don’t get to say DM’s made bad moves this offseason, so signing Bloomquist is a terrible move. You have to evaluate each move on its own merits. You can say the Royals already had Callaspo, Aviles, German, and Pena, and did not need another middle-infielder if that’s how you feel. I tend to think that Bloomquist is the third best player on that list, and think that signing him to a 2 year $3M improves the team. If you feel similarly, then you think that this is a good move, even if you think Bloomquist is overrated as a gritty player, and even if you absolutely hated the Farnsworth contract.
The signing was bad in and of itself
Even outside of the context of the other offseason moves, this signing was stupid, unneeded and ill advised. The only thing that made it not a huge mistake was that it was only $3M. Still that’s $3M that could and should have been used on something more useful. Bloomquist can’t hit, isn’t a particularly good fielder and while he plays a lot of positions, he doesn’t play many of them well. That sounds a lot like German, but with a bit better fielding and more than a little worse hitting. And German is likely cheaper. And at least Pena can do one thing well. That’s one more than Bloomquist. I’d put Bloomy fourth on that list in a bench role for the Royals.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
How good are the five middle-infielders listed by kcdc1?
I’m using FanGraphs “Wins Value” here.
4.4 Aviles (< 1 year sample)
1.4 German (7 year sample)
0.6 Bloomquist (7 year sample)
0.4 Callaspo (< 3 year sample)
0.3 Tony Pena Jr (3 year sample)
So it looks like Bloomie is indeed the third best. Moreover, I would be very, very uncomfortable not backing up either Callaspo or Aviles—and preferably both, since really they are both huge question marks (although question marks with optimistic smiley faces at the end, perhaps).
What’s more, Bloomquist is “worth” 1.6m / year — right about what we’re paying him. This seems like a reasonable move: TPJ is hopefully gone, Callaspo last year was well above his (very short) career average, and Aviles is a complete unknown.
With Bloomie and German (known quantities) basically backing up Aviles and Callaspo (unknown quantities with moderately high upside), I think the middle-infield has a decent shot next year.
I agree with kcdc1, overall.
Ooops. FanGraphs gives *total* value, not average: rather strange.
Let me average them.
Yes, do that
And hopefully not average per season (because many of these guys don’t have full 600 PA seasons). Like an average per 600 PA’s or something like that.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2009 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
better yet
those aren’t great for projection. It’s better to look at their projected wOBA (CHONE is currenlty the best one on there) and then maybe at their recent UZRs for defenseive positions, although for utility guys, that’s a really small sample size
see my Chris Burke comment below
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, projection is particularly important when looking at Bloomy vs. Callaspo
Callaspo should be getting better. Bloomquist shouldn’t be. So we have to look at both where they’ve been and where they are likely going.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2009 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Not a lot of difference (except TPJ)?
CHONE wOBA 2009:
326 German
326 Callaspo
324 Aviles
314 Bloomquist
266 Tony Pena Jr
I don’t see the UZR projections…
there aren't any
a weighted average of their previous years might work, CHONE’s defensive projections are easily accessible at www.baseballprojection.com (not on the team pages). For positions with small sample size, go up…
Look, I’ve done all this. You don’t have to believe me, but German is at least as good as Bloomquist, Callaspo is better.
And so is Chris Burke
but the Royals are so short on money!!!111
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
+100
On all of the above.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2009 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
I actually mostly agree with you that baseball needs a new financial structure
to level the playing field a bit more
but the Royals shot themselves in the foot so much this offseason that’s it’s tough to use that as an excuse this time
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
An uneven playing field hurts. And stupid GM moves hurt too.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
you cant win with terrible GMing...
you can win with a low payroll….the first should be fixed before we have any right to bitch about the 2nd
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 15, 2009 4:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think you can definitely still bitch about it
You just can’t use it as a justification (or at least the only one) for the lack of the Royals success.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it."
I'm puffing away, Hal.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 15, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, a problem for MLB is a problem for MLB
We can always bitch about things that are hurting the game and the industry. This isn’t just a KC Royals problem. But of course it is not the only reason the Royals aren’t in contention. It is just one reason.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
Willie Bloomquist isn't destroying our national innocence
but he is adversely effecting our will to live
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
Bloomquist just adds insult to injury
And the real injury was Farnsworth.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
But the Bloomquist signing is more than likely
going to be a bad, bad signing. On top of the other moves, it is more straw.
Maybe I’m not following your comment.
If I've learned one thing careerwise from the Royals middle infield situation
It’s this:
When starting a new job where a major pre-existing problem exists — Don’t solve the problem with your best or even a good solution. If anything, make the situation worse. That way, you can do whatever you want after that, and a large percentage of those rating you will approve of your job solving the new problem.
by Top Ramen on Jan 15, 2009 11:39 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
Interesting
The Royals have gone from 60 to 69 to 75 wins under Dayton’s watch. More importantly, they’ve gone from league-wide joke, worse-than-an-expansion franchise, to something respectable and widely recognized as one of the small-money organizations doing the right things.
I think everyone here would say that Dayton’s improved the team, it’s more a question of whether the current players are a foundation for actually WINNING or just mid-90s Twins-type false start. Also, are the Royals really respected now? I mean, 75 wins and not last place is cool after the awfulness in the Baird era….but that’s still seven wins short of a winning season.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
As I said elsewhere, 69-to-75 has as much to do or more with Greinke, Dejesus, Gordon, and Aviles (who they tried desparately not to play) as with Meche and Soria
so let’s not go nuts
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
and butler and buck and teahen....
allard baird sucks
TPJ...you're dead to me
by billybeingbilly on Jan 15, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
I think their drafts have been respected
But I think their free agent acquisitions have been largely ridiculed, even the ones that have worked out (Meche)
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
True
The Royals draft did get some attention as being good (because it was). In terms of overall perception, that’s not likely to change until the team actually wins. Then again, who cares?
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
Yeah, since when are the Royals sen as an organization doing the right things?
By whom? A handful of Dayton Moore fetishists?
The immoderate moderator
the "Scouts Honor" moron
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Is this a joke, sarcasm or a misperception?
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2009 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Chris Burke signed a minor-league deal with the Padres
I realize people will go to fangraphs and see below replacement level for the last two years as a bench player — small sample size.
However, his defense at 2B and OF is much better than Bloomquists, and CHONE has his bat better, too.
Most importantly, it was a minor-league deal.
That, Sam Mellinger, et. al. is the kind of deal you give to a replacement level player (and one who projects to be signficantly better than Bloomquist)
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
+1
There are literally hundreds of Bloomquists.
Stathead, Zack Greinke fan, and Rock Band 2 singer extraordinaire.
Like German...
you know, the guy that Moore signed to a 1/$1.2M about a month before Bloomquist?
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it."
I'm puffing away, Hal.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 15, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
i find it depressingly h ilarious
that during the season we joked more than once about all the second basemen the Royals had, and that “2Bs are the currency of baseball,” and now DMGM is acting like we were serious
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
Actually apparently pitching and Wal*Mart dollars are the currency of baseball
And he spends them on important things like bad second basemen and first basemen.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2009 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yet another reason why the site needs a...
sarcasm font. Dayton is probably on here all the time, but just didn’t get it. He never struck me as a guy who had a great sense of humor.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it."
I'm puffing away, Hal.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 15, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
to be fair
this offseason has been a joke
/vegas
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 15, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree
most guys have one single asset that teams overvalue and pay for.
Bloomquist doesn’t really have any assets. He’s just a below average ball player that is literally going going to pull in a six figure paycheck every two weeks.
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