ZiPS Projects Justin Huber

Drumroll please. .244/.303/.386, 316 AB, 10 HR, 40 RBI, 23 BB, 88K

That's 33 fewer OBP points than CHONE projects for Willie Bloomquist. The math has to be off here somewhere.

about 3 years ago Scott McKinney 23 comments 0 recs |

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Correction

30 fewer OBP points than Willie B.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2009 11:46 AM EST reply actions

See

The math was off!

Now stop posting things so that I can finish the community projection post. You know I have a short atten— hey, a squirrel! he hee hee…

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 16, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

if you keep refiguring it

pretty soon he will be 30 more OBP than the Willmeister

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 16, 2009 2:01 PM EST up reply actions

ZIPS

Has long been known to be racist against Australians.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 16, 2009 11:51 AM EST reply actions

It's hard being optimistic...

But if the AZ Cardinals can make the playoffs, perhaps the Royals can finally break the 23-year drought…

Speaking of 23 years ago, here is a design I created awhile back that RR readers might enjoy:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/chrism70/3189890382/

by ChrisM70 on Jan 16, 2009 11:57 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Cool

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2009 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

wow

better have one ready for this year

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 16, 2009 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

So do we agree with this projection or is it way off? (samsonite)

That's why we play the season on paper.

by 306008 on Jan 16, 2009 3:29 PM EST reply actions

I think the HR's are a little generous

And, of course, the playing time estimation is very generous because he’s an unsigned FA. I guess he’ll likely end up signing a minor league deal with someone, but I’d be shocked if he had more than 100 AB’s in the majors in 2009. The most likely number is zero.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions

hater

he will do more better than projected, I project.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 16, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

so basically Alex Gordon type numbers

by Freneau on Jan 16, 2009 7:03 PM EST reply actions

that's right

both are non-.300 hitters with less power than you’d expect from a “corner spot”

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 16, 2009 7:14 PM EST up reply actions

are we sure this isn't a bill james projection?

its basically his 08 rate stats with a random playing time guess

by Freneau on Jan 16, 2009 7:19 PM EST reply actions

all sorts of typos -- or a spreadsheet glitch

I got the real numbers by reading Dan’s mind:

.344/.403/.586, 30 HR, 140 RBI, 93 BB, 78K

That’s looks about right. You know, given limited playing time

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 16, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions

What's your projection, Will?

Still think Huber has some upside?

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions

who knows?

I mean, we’re talking about someone who, like you said, probably won’t play

I do think that part time guys tend to have depressed #s on offense… I do think he could slg .450 in the right circumstances

by Freneau on Jan 17, 2009 3:22 PM EST up reply actions

And there tends to be a reason that part-time guys are part-time guys

And a reason why guys can’t get major league contracts. Most guys who can’t get playing time or can’t get signed are in situation for a reason. And that reason is talent, or the lack thereof.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 17, 2009 10:11 PM EST up reply actions

its b/c their agents havent gotten ahold of dayton yet...

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jan 18, 2009 5:07 AM EST up reply actions

1.000/1.000/4.000

1 for 1 with a HR !!! Great Season Huber just like Jamie Quirk ’84 Cle stats.

It takes 46 muscles to frown but only 4 to flip 'em the bird.

by kcscoliny on Jan 16, 2009 9:57 PM EST reply actions

Projection's correct

You have to remember the context both of where he would play in the majors and where he has played in the minors. Petco is obviously a terrible hitter’s park and it’s especially bad for players that don’t get a good chunk of their value in singles and doubles, which Huber doesn’t. When you combine Huber’s major league numbers and minor league translations in recent years, you get:

2005 – 276/343/436
2006 – 251/319/401
2007 – 248/294/397
2008 – 234/290/324

The CHONE projection for Huber is essentially as bad, with a .692 OPS to the .689 of ZiPS. I won’t pretend to know why Huber’s getting worse, but he is. It happens. Another player from halfway around the world, Hee Seop Choi, went from being a solid 1B with the Marlins to barely putting up a .700 OPS in Pawtucket in the space of 2 years.

--
Dan Szymborski
dan@baseballprimer.com

by D.Szymborski on Jan 17, 2009 3:35 AM EST reply actions